To recap 2017…Michigan’s defense was very, very good. The offense however was, very very bad. After a 4-0 start, Michigan does what it does best in the Harbaugh era and lost to a rival, going down 14-10 to Michigan State. An overtime victory against Indiana was followed up by a good old-fashioned butt stomping by Penn State. Sitting at 5-2 (2-2) with both losses to divisional contenders, it seemed like any shot at Indianapolis was done. Still, UM knocked off three struggling teams in a row to get to eight wins. Unfortunately, that was it. Wisconsin and Ohio State proved too much as did South Carolina in the bowl.
So after three years Harbaugh is 28-11 (18-8) but cannot beat rivals, win the division, or bowls (1-2). Has he lost his touch? Maybe…I mean David Shaw has kept Stanford a force, but the more logical explanation is the bombastic coach hasn’t found the right signal caller. For Wolverine fans, that has hopefully changed with one massive transfer: Shea Patterson.
So what has Mr. Patterson inherited? Well in total O Michigan was 96th. In passing, 106th. In efficiency, 76th. In sacks allowed, T-14th for most allowed with 36. So while quarterback play was shoddy last year, the entire offense had issues. Let’s start with that line that gave up 14 more sacks in 2017 than in 2016 and see if they can improve any.
The short answer is…no. Sure there could be a little improvement but this unit is not going to become one of the elite in the league overnight. The fact is this line just does not return a lot of starters and is relying on either younger players or position change players to add depth. The one bona fide starter back is Ben Bredeson who was an All-Big Ten second team member and has 20 starts at left guard. The rest of the line needs to jell otherwise it could be another sack fest for Michigan.
The other pieces include Juwann Bushell-Beaty who started the final seven games at right tackle last year, Nolan Ulizio who started the first four games right tackle, Michael Onwenu who had seven starts at right guard a season ago, and Cesar Ruiz who was a rotational player and made a spot start in 2017. That’s not a whole lot but even if a breakout year or two is seen by these guys, there are still concerns with the overall depth. James Hudson, a four-star defensive end is switching to the OL and three four-star players – Joel Honigford (class of 2016), Chuck Filiaga (class of 2017), and Andrew Stueber (class of 2017) have had little impact in Ann Arbor. Stueber has had the most with just one special teams appearance last year.
Thankfully Michigan returns several running backs who are used to running behind a lousy line. Karon Higdon rushed for 994 yards on a 6.1 average and had 11 TDs, good enough to end up on the All-Big Ten third team last season. Also back is Chris Evans who racked up 685 yards, averaged 5.1, and scored 6 times. Not so thankfully however is the lack of certainty behind these two. The next returning back is O’Maury Samuels who toted the rock just eight times last year. He came to Michigan as a four-star kid so maybe it all pans out but to only see the field a few times with all those prep accolades was strange. Redshirting him would have made more sense. Everyone else on the roster are scout players or low rated recruits with two exceptions. One is four-star recruit Christian Turner and the other is grad transfer Berkley Edwards who had his career start at Minnesota, continue at Central Michigan, and is now wrapping up with Michigan. In all honesty for Michigan’s rushing attack to succeed, Higdon and Evans have got to stay healthy because there is practically nothing behind them.
The great news for Shea Patterson is, even if the line isn’t great and the running back depth isn’t ideal, he has a ton of targets to throw it to. Leading receiver Grant Perry is back after a 307 yard season and provides senior leadership. Second leading receiver, tight end Zach Gentry, exploded in his junior year, earning All-Big Ten honorable mention along the way. Fellow tight end Sean McKeon finished third in receiving yards for the Maize and Blue and wouldn’t you know it, he is back as well. Next up in terms of receiving yardage was Donovan Peoples-Jones but he has just started to scratch the surface of his potential. The five-star recruit was excellent in the return game last year and with Patterson having more throwing ability than the 2017 trio, Peoples-Jones has a better opportunity to unleash his next level talent.
Unfortunately Tarik Black broke his foot again in camp and is out indefinitely so the depth looses a piece; however, when I was looking at the roster I wasn’t as alarmed as some of the die-hard Michigan football fans are. First of all, tight end Nick Eubanks saw the field so maybe you just slide one of the other athletic tight ends to the slot and put Eubanks in. Another possibility would be Nico Collins who got some experience last year and was a four-star prospect. Nate Schoenle is another WR who also has seen the field some, maybe he can step in.
Lastly there are the young pups. Redshirt freshman Oliver Martin was a four-kid and two additional four-star tight ends join this year. One local prospect Ryan Hayes and the other is Texas mega recruit Mustapha Muhamma, who comes as the 42nd ranked prospect on ESPN’s top 300. Even with Black going down, there is more than enough talent in the WR and TE groups to go around.
So let’s get to the man who will be orchestrating the offense. In the other previews you have seen me mention his name and in the introduction to this post I also name-dropped Shea Patterson. Who is he and what makes him so special? To understand how special he is, take a look at the numbers John O’Korn, Brandon Peters, and Wilton Speight put up last year: 185/346 (53.5%), 2226 yards, 6.43 avg, 9 TDs, 10 INTs. Speight has since transferred, O’Korn graduated, and Peters will be the back up. As you can see, quarterback was a mess last year for the Wolverines. So who is Shea Patterson? Well, he is the Ole Miss transfer that had a higher completion percentage, more yards, more TDs, and fewer INTs than Michigan’s quarterbacks all while playing half a season. Patterson got hurt week 7 so basically he was on pace to singlehandedly double all the output Michigan had from three guys.
Patterson has already been announced as a starter and Peters will be the primary back up but if there is another emergency, redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey (yes of that McCaffrey family) was a four or five-star kid depending on your recruiting service of choice. Incoming freshman Joe Milton is also a four-star recruit and landed at 119th on ESPN’s top 300. In other words, the position that was the biggest weakness for Michigan a year ago now has an outstanding starter and great depth. This is one reason people are so high on the Wolverines this year. The other reason, oh my god that defense.
UM’s defensive attack was nasty last year, finishing 3rd in the nation in total D, edging out Wisconsin (4th) and MSU (7th) for the top mark in the league. Returning from that lethal unit is a boatload of guys. Starting up front, outstanding ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich are back after combining for 14 sacks a year ago. It wasn’t just the sacks that made them scary however. Gary, only a junior, was a second team All-Big Ten selection by the AP in part because of his ability to disrupt all plays, not just passing ones. For instance against Indiana he had nine tackles. A few games later he even topped that mark. Against OSU he had 11 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and 2 sacks. Gary can get to the quarterback really well, but he isn’t a pass-rush specialist, he does it all. Winovich, a senior, is the same way. You don’t become an All-Big Ten first team media selection by just blindly sacking the quarterback. Like Gary, Winovich has the ability to diagnose a play and react rather than just trying to push up field and get to the quarterback. This makes both of these ends just as dangerous against opponents’ rushing plays as they are against the pass.
On the inside there are going to be some new faces. Bryan Mone has the most experience with 35 appearances and eight starts, including a couple of spot starts in 2017. Lawrence Marshall also has plenty of game experience with 18 career games in a Michigan uniform however, I think both of these guys will provide depth because there are some big name talents poised for a breakout season. One is Aubrey Solomon who got into all 13 games as a freshman and saw more and more snaps as the season went on. Solomon was a five-star prospect by several services and even though ESPN gave him four-stars, they also put him on their top 300 list at 63rd. The other guy is Michael Dwumfour who came to Ann Arbor kind of unheralded as a three-star kid but has done nothing but work his tail off. He appeared in 10 games a season ago and DC Don Brown and the staff have been talking him up in camp. Personally, I would mix the experience of Mone with the raw ability of Solomon for my starting tackles but all four guys have starting talent and really the interior of the line needs to be the right mix of guys to let those killer ends go to town, rather than be the focal point.
As for DL depth, Carlo Kemp, Reuben Jones, and Kwity Paye have seen action as reserve ends and Luiji Vilain was a four-star end prospect that redshirted last year. Two additional former four-star recruits are on the roster, one is seldom used junior Ron Johnson and the other is redshirt freshman Donovan Jeter. Incoming freshman Aidan Hutchinson is also a four-star kid and was 193rd on ESPN’s top 300 list. The starting ends have NFL talent, the tackles are going to be good, and the depth is phenomenal. Great D-Line situation Michigan enjoys.
Then we get to the guys behind the star studded DL and the embarrassment of riches continues with Devin Bush and Khaleke Hudson. Both are NFL talent level players back after outstanding 2017 campaigns. Bush appeared on various All-American teams, was an All-Big Ten first team member, and was a Butkus finalist. While his 95 tackles might not jump out as a massive number, you need to remember his DL is absorbing a lot of plays so Bush doesn’t have to put up those 120 tackle type seasons. What should impress you though is 10 TFLs and 5.5 sacks.
Hudson earned All-Big Ten third team selection and had an impressive sophomore season with 7.5 sacks and 16 TFLs. This seems like he had a better season than Bush but it actually has to do with Don Brown’s attacking scheme. Bush plays the more traditional LB role of pass coverage, play recognition, reaction, and the occasional blitz. Hudson played the old Jabrill Peppers “Viper” position which is basically: run your ass to the quarterback. It’s part LB, party safety, part pass rushing specialist, but it is all disruptive and Hudson is a nasty disruptor.
The other players listed as linebacker on the roster (Hudson is listed as a LB but obviously has other responsibilities) are reserves, redshirts, or incoming freshman so at least one person is going to have to step up. In terms of reps at the position, Josh Uche is the most experienced. Josh Ross and Jordan Glasgow have seen the field as special teams standouts, especially Glasgow who was named special teams player of the year at Michigan. Devin Gill has also been in the program for long enough to fight for a role.
Michigan of course has some young guns coming with a lot of buzz. Redshirt freshman Jordan Anthony and Drew Singletary were both four-star recruits and both landed on the ESPN top 300. Incoming true freshman Cameron McGrone is yet another four-star, ESPN top 300 prospect. While linebacker has to fill a spot or two depending on where Hudson is roving, they have plenty of options and Bush is a natural so consider LB fully stocked for Harbaugh’s club.
Lastly for this defense, if you thought the front seven was nasty enough, they return four starters from the back-end and plethora of talented reserve pieces. All four have garnered much praise but the star of the group is cornerback Lavert Hill who was a second team All-Big Ten player a season ago despite playing just nine games. Fellow corner David Long also had a productive year and was an All-Big Ten honorable mention by the media.
The safety duo of Tyree Kinnel and Josh Metellus is also highly regarded with both earning All-Big Ten honorable mentions in 2017. Kinnel is particularly dangerous getting in on 66 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and a sack last year. These four starters are backed up by nine dudes who either have rotation experience, are highly praised four or five-star recruits, or both. Normally I’d go into it but I’m already over 2000 words so just know that the UM secondary can absorb a whole bunch of injuries before anyone on this staff will break a sweat.
One area that Michigan would like to improve in is special teams. Kicker Quinn Nordin had an up and down year where he hit just 19 of his 24 field goals and missed three point afters. Leg strength can also improve as he attempted just four field goals from 40-49 and just three attempts from 50+ with all three coming in a dome. For a team with championship aspirations, Nordin isn’t exactly a lock in crunch time.
2018 Schedule
At Notre Dame
- Best Case – Michigan snaps their 0-16 run in road games against ranked foes. 1-0
- Worst Case – Irish DL eats up Michigan’s OL. 0-1
- Prediction – I’m not 100% sure why Notre Dame is ranked so highly. They lost several skill position guys, went just 4-8 in 2016, haven’t won 10+ games in two straight seasons since the early 90s. I’m expecting them to slide back to the pack. Monster win for Michigan. W, 20-14, 1-0
Western Michigan
- BC – The Bronco front seven is lacking experience and talent. Uh-oh. 2-0
- WC – WMU’s offense could keep things interesting for a quarter and a half but there is a pretty big talent gap. 1-1
- P – UM gobbles up the WMU front en route to a 200+ yard rushing day. W, 35-10, 2-0
Southern Methodist
- BC – SMU’s offensive line has a lot of question marks while UM’s defensive line is killer. 3-0
- WC – UM’s biggest strength is by far the Ponies biggest weakness. 2-1
- P – SMU has some nice skill players and might put a few drives together, but Michigan will be much too much for this rebuilding AAC club. W, 31-13, 3-0
Nebraska
- BC – NU’s defense last year was…historically awful. 4-0
- WC – Maybe Shea Patterson is a bust. Maybe he isn’t fully healthy. Maybe he gets re-hurt. Maybe his OL turns out to be awful. Crazier things have happened so in a nightmare worst case type season, maybe Michigan flatlines. 2-2
- P – NU’s OL might be able to hold up and the WRs might be able to get some real estate but I don’t see it happening consistently enough for the Huskers to pose much of a threat. W, 31-14, 4-0 (1-0)
At Northwestern
- BC – Michigan’s rush defense will be nasty and Northwestern just graduated the program’s all time leading rusher. 5-0
- WC – NU’s linebacking group is almost as good as Michigan’s. Perhaps they get to Patterson over and over again. 2-3
- P – I’m not sure Michigan’s offense will be improved enough to say they will put up a ton of points against the solid Wildcat defense but I know the UM defense will be good enough to prevent NU from scoring much. W, 17-7, 5-0 (2-0)
Maryland
- BC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! 6-0
- WC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! 2-4
- P – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL! W, 28-17, 6-0 (3-0)
Wisconsin
- BC – Michigan’s one-dimensional offense was toast against UW in the second half of last year’s loss. With UW having a whole bunch of new faces on D combined with Michigan having an actual quarterback, the tables will turn. 7-0
- WC – Fire Harbaugh chants start happening. 2-5
- P – Wisconsin’s defense will not be as good as last year’s but their offense is championship level, Badgers steal a mega road win thanks to an unusually higher scoring affair between these two. L, 28-24, 6-1 (3-1)
At Michigan State
- BC – Woah…Michigan beat a rival? 8-0
- WC – Full on implosion as the offense is dead last in the league and the defense no longer really cares. 2-6
- P – MSU returns a ton but I just can’t get over how good the Michigan defense is on paper. Huge bounce back win on the road after the narrow loss to Bucky. W, 13-10, 7-1 (4-1)
Penn State
- BC – Lion’s biggest weakness? DT and LB. That is music to the ears of Michigan fans worried about their OL. 9-0
- WC – Umm, yeah, PSU still has a lot back from a club the clowned Michigan in last year’s 42-13 game. 2-7
- P – This one is a total coin flip as they both return a ton of talent. I think even the most Maize and Blue colored glasses wearing UM fan would agree that PSU’s offense is better but the most Blue and White colored glasses wearing PSU fan would agree that Michigan’s defense is better. In the end, I’m going to go with defense and the home team in a thrilling game. W, 35-33 (triple OT), 8-1 (5-1)
At Rutgers
- BC – Uh-oh Michigan is #1 in the nation and sees a clear path to the “playoffs.” 10-0
- WC – In a completely lost season, UM’s talent still beats out RU’s. 3-7
- P – Cake walk in Jersey. W, 45-10, 9-1 (6-1)
Indiana
- BC – IU has to replace eight starters on defense. UM fans like the sound of that. 11-0
- WC – Indian’s offense is pretty good though. After several close games in this series, the Hoosiers finally get over the hump. 3-8
- P – Indiana has the chops to hang around, but Michigan’s defense comes up with some timely stops in a fun one. W, 28-21, 10-1 (7-1)
At Ohio State
- BC – Down goes the nut! 12-0
- WC – And let me just set my watch to Ohio State cleaning Michigan’s clock. 3-8
- P – These two teams feel more like equals than at any other point in Harbaugh’s tenure but it is at the Shoe and I’m not sure I have ever predicted the Buckeyes to lose a home game. L, 24-21, 10-2 (7-2)
Final Notes
Michigan’s defense will undoubtedly be at a championship level again this season. The question is, will the vastly improved QB situation be enough to overcome a weaker line compared to other title contenders? If it is, the sky really is the limit for what is by far Harbaugh’s most talented team since his return to Ann Arbor.
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