Well like most Iowa seasons there is a ton of potential but a ton of glaring holes. DL – solid. OL – solid. TE – elite. Secondary – strong. That just leaves some big holes. At quarterback Nathan Stanley can chuck it a mile when he needs to lay it in on a 20+ yarder. He can hurl it 100 miles per hour, when the wideout is two yards away. If he can control the cannon, he has tons of potential. The problem is so far in his career, that control is very uneven.
The next hole is at running back. There are three nice backs, and they compliment each other nicely but are any of them three down backs? Are any of them the next Freddie Russell or Shonn Green? Maybe…but that is unknown. Mekhi Sargent is probably the most rounded of the trio with Ivory Kelly-Martin being more of the burner and Toren Young being the bruiser.
Lastly is the wideout situation which, hey, let’s face it, the Kirk Ferentz regime has never put a WR into the NFL. Brandon Smith and Imhir Smith-Marsette get a lot of love from the staff and in the press but they are young. Nick Easley has experience in the slot but isn’t as physically gifted as other WRs in the league. The nice thing is with the Tight Ends, whoever emerges among Iowa’s wide receiving group as Stanley’s favorite target is a complimentary piece to the offense and not a focal point.
So with the negatives on offense out of the way, let’s look at the positives starting with that TE group. Noah Fant is insanely talented. He is going to the NFL for sure, probably after this season. What has all of us Iowa fans jazzed was the emergence of T.J. Hockenson last season. Don’t be surprised to see Iowa with two tight ends out on the field with neither staying in to block as these two are the most gifted athletes in the skill position group.
Doing the dirty work along the lines is a good but a bit of a new group. As always the usual solid line play of Iowa produced some NFL talent and the center left early but the two tackles are back and Tristan Wirfs is a man among boys, especially in the weight room. While this group might not be among Iowa’s elite lines – and let’s be honest with Ferentz being an extraordinary line coach there have been plenty of elite lines – this is still one of the better groups in the west.
On the other side of the line is a stacked line with elder statesmen like Parker Hesse and up and comers like five star kid A.J. Epenesa. Epenesa continues to grow as an every down lineman but expect to see him continue to be a pass rushing specialist. The other strength of this defense is the secondary which just continues to produce NFL talent after NFL talent. The next star of this group figures to be Amani Hooker at safety.
The problem facing this defense is the linebacker situation. In 2017 Iowa enjoyed three experienced starters but they all graduated. Uh-oh. There are some players who have shown flashes in camp and in bit roles but none of them are household names for a reason.
Lastly is special teams where Iowa should be reliable if not spectacular. Highlighting this group is senior kicker Miguel Recinos. He is coming off an 11/13 season on field goals where he went 4/4 from 40-49. Not to jinx him but he is also batting 1.000 on point afters.
In all, Iowa has some intriguing pieces and being in the west, have a good shot at turning in a magical run like 2009 or 2015 but they also have enough holes that maybe they go just 7-5. That’s the fun with Kirk, I guess.
2018 Schedule
Northern Illinois
- Best Case – Always a force in the MAC but a little bit down from the years they were nationally ranked. 1-0
- Worst Case – All due respect to the Huskies but this isn’t one of their strongest sides. 1-0
- Prediction – Hawks use the mismatches at TE to move the ball effectively. W, 31-3, 1-0
Iowa State
- BC – On paper, Iowa is more talented. 2-0
- WC – On paper, Iowa State has some scary talent, especially on defense. 1-1
- P – Always a coin flip but the game is in Kinnick this year. Iowa escapes. W, 24-21, 2-0
Northern Iowa
- BC – Game is over at half an no need for double blocked FG heroics. 3-0
- WC – Injuries? This isn’t an elite UNI squad where they are contending in FCS. 2-1
- P – Iowa’s new faces on defense shine in a shutout. W, 31-0, 3-0
Wisconsin
- BC – Like Iowa, UW has a lot of new faces on defense. Iowa takes advantage. 4-0
- WC – Of course the Badgers could just reload on that side of the ball and shut the Hawks down again. 2-2
- P – The defenses are kind of a wash so have to look at the offenses. Badgers on paper are a pinch betters, so they win by a pinch. L, 24-21, 3-1 (0-1)
At Minnesota
- BC – Iowa is more talented at a lot of places, especially along both lines. 5-0
- WC – The linebacking issues turn into full on panic mode as Iowa slips below .500. 2-3
- P – Minnesota’s issues at quarterback plus Iowa’s secondary should make for a turnover filled fest. Gophers hang around since they are better than in the past, but Iowa prevails on the road. W, 17-10, 4-1 (1-1)
At Indiana
- BC – If things break the wrong way, Indian’s defense could end up being one of the worst in the league. 6-0
- WC – If things break the wrong way, Iowa’s offense could end up being one of the worst in the league. 2-4
- P – The timing of this game favors Iowa. The Hawks are coming off playing Minnesota who is improved, but nothing special and Indiana is coming off Ohio State. Yuck. W, 21-17, 5-1 (2-1)
Maryland
- BC – Maryland has a lot of upside but way more questions than Iowa. 7-0
- WC – What if UM answers their issues and Iowa doesn’t? 2-5
- P – Maryland has a mobile QB which often gives Iowa fits so the game feels very toss-upy. When that happens I go with the home club. W, 24-21, 6-1 (3-1)
At Penn State
- BC – Iowa was all over this team a year ago and “let them off the hook.” Not this time. 8-0
- WC – Penn State is up big at half….like the last time Iowa was in Happy Valley. 2-6
- P – Talent vs talent, Penn State is the superior squad. L, 28-10, 6-2 (3-2)
At Purdue
- BC – Revenge for 2017!!! 9-0
- WC – Brohm coaches circles around our offensive staff. 2-7
- P – Purdue completely locked us down last year. Their defense won’t be nearly as good but their offense should be better. I’m not very confident in this one. L, 24-21, 6-3 (3-3)
Northwestern
- BC – Talk about a team with some questions. Iowa cracks the top five! 10-0
- WC – The fire Kirk clock is approaching midnight. 2-8
- P – KNOCK ON WOOD!!! Iowa is the logical choice in this one based on talent and the game being in Iowa City. W, 17-14, 7-3 (4-3)
At Illinois
- BC – Talent v talent? No question. 11-0
- WC – A consistent offense is never found in a complete failure of a season. 2-9
- P – For a team like Illinois, they would have wanted to play Iowa earlier in the season when the defense isn’t as solidified. By this point…no question that Iowa will be clicking. W, 24-14, 8-3 (5-3)
Nebraska
- BC – Another 56-14 drubbing as Iowa is off to Indy. 12-0
- WC – Iowa has given up and Nebraska is playing for a bowl. 2-10
- P – Iowa is better and more experienced at several positions, including even quarterback. W, 31-21, 9-3 (6-3)
Final Notes
2-10 as a worst case?!?! Yes, that is a convention of how I do these posts. The worst case is always everything falls apart and the coach is fired. That’s not happening. Iowa can win a wild, wide open west. They will make a bowl. They could even pull an upset or two (Penn State would be their biggest) but the fact of the matter is this schedule is beyond favorable. In alphabetical order: no Michigan, no Michigan State, no Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home. That is a dream scenario. For Iowa to take advantage three things must happen:
- LB group comes together and is serviceable – they don’t need to be elite but they can’t be burned every play.
- Stanley improves his touch and builds on a 55% completion percentage in 2017. If Stanley can match 2017 Clayton Thorson’s 60.4%, imagine how lethal Iowa’s passing attack could be.
- Beat Wisconsin – Nebraska is too young, Minnesota has no qb, Northwestern has too many issues, Illinois is Illinois, and Purdue’s defense is brand new. This appears to be a two horse race so having the head-to-head chip is vital
Knowing Iowa they will do two of those three things and miss Indianapolis by a game and a half. But that’s a bowl, so most of the fans will be pleased while the rest of us “aren’t realistic.” C’est la vie.
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