2018 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Northwestern

After humiliating losses to Duke, Wisconsin, and Penn State, the Wildcats were sitting at a 2-3 (0-2) mark and it looked like the season would be a long one.  Still, Fitz’s crew rebounded with a dominating win out at Maryland to get back to .500 ball.  Then they knocked off Iowa in overtime – okay, the ship is turning.  Next they took down Michigan State in triple overtime – okay, this is at least a fun season.  In Lincoln, NU-Puruple won in OT yet again – okay, this team has figured it out.  Next to go down was bowl-bound Purdue by 10 followed by Minnesota in a 39-0 rout, and to end the season NU thrashed their in-state rival(?), 42-7.  Cats then won one of the most exciting bowls of last year, 24-23 over Kentucky, to get to 10-3 (7-2) and cap off an eight game winning streak to end the season.

BUT…and it is a big one…in the bowl victory Clayton Thorson tore his ACL so now a club that returns a lot of talent, enters 2018 with their man under center a bit of a question mark health wise.  Word is he looks good in camp and he says he wants to play the opener but that would mean he is back in just eight months.  I know the rehab time for that dreaded ACL injury is way down, but it still seems like a very tight window.

Let’s prepare for the worst and say Thorson misses the opening three games to at least get to nine months of rehab, who is going to be the temporary starter?  Well the battle was between TJ Green, son of Trent Green, and Aidan Smith with Green being announced as Thorson’s backup; however, the two of them combined for exactly one pass attempt last year.  If both come in and struggle, maybe you will see four-star true freshman prospect Jason Whittaker get in.  With the new redshirt rules, I think Fitz would be wise to give this kid some game time.  It should be noted for anyone who looks at the NU roster, yes Hunter Johnson (former Clemson and five-star kid) is listed on it but he is sitting out 2018 per transfer rules.

So obviously there isn’t much behind Thorson but I know some snickering fans would say, “yeah but Northwestern had Justin Jackson last year and they have a good defense, so how good is Thorson. really?”  Well, he was an All-Big Ten third team member last year.  He is the program’s all-time winningest quarterback, and threw for 2800 yards while completing 60.4% of his passes.  His TD to INT ratio was only 15 to 12 but in 2016 that number was 22 to 9 so I think losing some great WR talent after the 2016 season combined with several tough games to open the year threw his numbers a pinch out of whack.  In the final seven games Thorson had 7 TDs to just 3 INTs so don’t assume he is going to be an interception machine in 2018 because outside that bad stretch to start last year, he is a pretty reliable decision maker.

Anyway, you may have noticed I mentioned Justin Jackson in that imaginary snide fan quote so who is he?  Well unfortunately he is the graduated running back stud that is the program’s all-time leading rusher.  Jackson capped his marvelous career with 1300 yards and 11 scores.  He managed to eclipse 1100 yards every season on campus and was an absolute joy to watch these last four years…unless he was running wild on your team.

The great news for Northwestern fans is running back is a deep, albeit unproven, position for them.  Jeremy Larkin is coming off a solid redshirt freshman season where he racked up 503 yards and 5 TDs in just 84 attempts – that’s a 6.0 rushing average – in backup duty for Jackson.  John Moten IV is also an intriguing returnee.  In 2016 he was the primary backup for Jackson and had 340 rushing yards but last year finished with just 55 yards as Larkin passed him by on the depth chart.  Jesse Brown also got some game action a season ago with 9 carries for 64 yards and 2 scores.

Another deep position for the Cats will be the gentlemen hopefully catching passes from Thorson.  While a few nice pieces have graduated, the two leading receivers are back and that is a great foundation.  Leading the way last year was Bennett Skowronek with 45 receptions, 644 yards, and 5 TDs.  After a very small role in 2016, the sophomore season turned out to be the charm for Skowronek as he exploded last year.  Senior Flynn Nagel looks to cap a very productive career as he has started 24 games the last two years and continues to be a great second option putting up 40+ catches and 440+ yards each of the past two seasons.

Both Skowronek and Nagel are sure-handed ball catchers but who will stretch the field or be a third option?  Well one piece in the equation could be Riley Lees who showed some big play potential with 235 yards and 2 scores on just 18 receptions.  Lees also flashed speed in the return game and ended with 537 all-purpose yards a year ago.  Another factor could be Jalen Brown.  This kid was a massive recruit in the class of 2013.  While it never totally worked out at Oregon, Brown came to NU as a grad transfer last year but his Wildcat debut was cut short by a season-ending injury against Duke.

Extra depth comes from Jace James – one of just a few true freshmen to see time last year, Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman – a redshirt sophomore with three camps to learn the offense in and out, Kyric McGowan – another kid who saw the field as a true freshman last year, and Solomon Vault.  Vault switched from running back to wide out for the 2016 season and did okay in a crowded position group with 15 receptions, 164 yards, and 2 scores but his biggest asset is his return ability which has earned him many accolades.  This is a big boost to the special teams unit but Vault could also be the burner who stretches the field.

There is one other name I haven’t gotten to yet and that is Cameron Green.  He caught 20 balls for 170 yards and 2 scores last year.  So while he adds some depth he is hard to write about because of something a little unusual Northwestern does.  Green, along with several other players, are listed as “Superbacks.”  This is a position that can line up at fullback, running back, tight end, or in the slot depending on how the play is going to shake out.  We have seen some other teams do this with athletic tight ends stepping off the line to be a slot receiver but Northwestern is taking it to the extreme.  I’m not sure it will catch on widely but if you are a school where recruiting can be difficult, and Northwestern qualifies as that with their academics, using a superback is a good way to get your most talented people out on the field and then take it from there.

So Green is the most productive superback returning but he isn’t the only SB on the roster.  Cody Link saw the field as did James Prather.  Prather got in a lot, actually, but mostly as a lead blocker in jumbo packages.  Basically if you come across this in a program or watching a NU game and hear it mentioned, the superback is what teams would traditionally call either their fullback or tight end.  What is unique to Fitzgerald’s team is the willingness to put this player in the slot one play and then the backfield the next.

So in all that superback excitement I forgot to even get to the offensive line.  They haven’t been too good at keeping Thorson upright with 38 sacks in 2016 and 30 last year but they return four starters and certainly played better as the season wore on so perhaps that will serve as a springboard to brighter things this year.

The senior leader of this line is Blake Hance who has now made 35 consecutive starts in a Wildcat uniform.  He is primarily a left tackle but due to some reshuffling started four games at left guard before going back to his usual LT position for the final nine.  While he doesn’t have the accolades of some of his teammates, he brings position flexibility and a wonderful track record of durability for the unit.  Next to Hance at left guard is J.B. Butler.  Butler took over the starting spot three games in and didn’t look back, starting the final nine at LG.  He is up to 16 career starts now with 15 of them coming at that left guard position.

The right tackle position is held by the young up and comer, Rashawn Slater, who was placed on the All-Big Ten freshman team last year.  The true freshman played like it at times but after a bit of a trial by fire, expect him to be much more polished in 2018.  To the inside of Slater is Tommy Doles.  Doles was probably the most consistent big ugly last year and earned All-Big Ten third team honors as a result.  He now has 25 straight stars with all but one of those coming firmly planted at the RG spot.

Line depth comes from Jared Thomas (10 appearances, 3 starts last year), Georgia Tech grad transfer Trey Klock (former starter at Tech but plagued by injuries), and a rare NU four-star kid, Wyatt Blake.  So the big change will be replacing center Brad North who graduated with 31 career starts.  Right now the position is a battle between Jared Thomas and redshirt freshman Sam Gerak who was ranked as the sixth best center for the recruiting class of 2016.  I wish my research would come up with why Gerak signed in late 2015, was a part of the 2016 class, played prep football in 2016, then redshirted in 2017.  My guess is he was allowed to reclassify for some reason buried in the NCAA rulebook but it is unimportant.

The bottom line is if the line can continue the momentum they developed the second half of the season and a new center pans out, this line can be a reliable one.  They won’t push Wisconsin for the best in the division and Iowa’s is probably better, too but this is a nice line and with a wily veteran like Thorson, nice will be more than enough to slice and dice an opposing team’s secondary.

Mercy, that was a lot on Northwestern’s offense.  The good news is the D is a little easier to write about because two position groups are loaded.  By far the crown jewel of this club is going to be the linebacking corps.  This isn’t exactly a shocker since Pat Fitzgerald played the position so well but he does have a special group back for this year.

The linebacking super stars of this team are Nate Hall and Paddy Fisher.  Hall was an All-Big Ten honorable mention thanks to a whopping 16.5 tackles for loss last year.  The senior made meaningful contributions in 2015 and 2016 but last year was a breakthrough he will surely build on.  Fisher seemingly came out of nowhere in his redshirt freshman season to lead NU with 113 tackles, 65 solo, earned All-Big Ten second and third team honors by various outlets, and the Big Ten Network named him the freshman defensive player of the year.  Hall and Fisher make a great tandem but if Northwestern can find a reliable third starter and have everyone stay healthy, Northwestern could end up having the best linebacking group in the league.

So who are the contenders for the third starter’s spot?  To me there are three already on the roster and a true freshman that could work out.  One player is Blake Gallagher who got into the defensive rotation as a true freshman last year and ended with 33 tackles, second most among true freshman for this Wildcat club.  A second contender is Nathan Fox who has 22 game appearances over the last two years as a back-up.  The third man is Chris Bergin who got 11 game appearances in his true freshman season.  The newbie is four-star recruit Khalid Jones who turned down nine other power conference teams to get coached up by Fitz.  If I was paid to make the decision, I would have Gallagher be the third starter but give Jones plenty of action for four games before giving him the new NCAA redshirt.  That way you have Jones learn the ropes a little and be prepared to a starter next year when Hall graduates but also get to have the sophomore Gallagher play with those two stars to up his game.

The linebacking group is going to be a real asset but what makes the NU defense so scary on paper is the whole front seven.  A very good LB set is joined by a line that has two major disrupters in Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller.  Gaziano led the league in sacks last year with eight and will surely be a focal point of opponent’s pass blocking schemes.  Miller was a true freshman who started all 13 games and was put on several Freshman All-American teams.  He had 8.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks, both numbers were extremely high for power five rookies.

Gaziano and Miller will tie up both starting end jobs but additional depth comes from Earnest Brown IV (11 backup appearances as a true freshman last year), Mark Gooden, Tommy Carnifax, and well-regarded class of 2017 redshirt freshman Trevor Kent.  Between two A+ stars and a lot of depth, DE is a clear strength but to maximize the output of the line the tackle position needs to shore a few things up.

Jordan Thompson will go a long way of making the interior as strong as possible.  He has 25 career starts, starting all 13 at defensive tackle last year, and racked up 2.5 sacks and 4.5 TFLs for loss.  The problem is whoever joins Thompson inside is a bit of an unknown right now.  The most likely starter is Alex Miller who had 13 appearances last year as a backup lineman but still managed to have 22 tackles and 4.5 TFLs.

If for some reason Miller doesn’t get the fourth starting job or more depth is required NU has plenty of it.  Trent Goens had 12 appearances last year, Joe Spivak had 5 appearances as a true freshman last year, Fred Wyatt got into all 13 a season ago, and Ben Oxley also made it into every game in 2017.  There are also two incoming freshman who are also well-regarded.  One is Andrew Leota and the other is four-star Devin O’Rourke who had nine offers in the Big Ten alone.  So yeah, DT isn’t as much of a lock as end but there is a ton of upside for whoever gets paired with Thompson.

It is a good thing the front seven has a great shot of disrupting the quarterback or hauling him down because if there is one area that is a work in progress for this defense it is the secondary.  Cornerback Montre Hartage has started 26 straight games at the position and was an All-Big Ten honorable mention in 2016.  His 2017 was productive too with 57 solo tackles and 3 interceptions.

The rest of the secondary needs to be rebuilt as the other corner position was never as settled as Hartage’s side and the two safeties graduated.  One person who could see their role expended is Jared McGee.  McGee has 25 appearances over the last two years with three starts at safety in 2016.  He saw a lot more action during the winning streak and averaged two tackles per game during that seven game rally to wrap up the regular season.  Another player poised for more responsibilities is Trae Williams who appeared in 10 games last year with five starts.  Alonzo Mayo also got some starts last year with four in nine total appearances.  He finished with 29 tackles, not bad for a reserve and spot-starter at corner.  Lastly JR Pace also saw the field in a limited role as a true freshman and Joe Bergin has been a reserve and special teams standout.

There are also some players coming off injuries but could help shore up the secondary.  Brian Bullock had a season-ending injury in the 2017 opener and Roderick Campbell got hurt in camp last year.  Finally incoming four-star freshman Austin Hiller could also see time for this rebuilt secondary.

If this new look secondary had to play with a weaker front seven, I’d be worried but that isn’t the case.  The front should allow the secondary to gel and be a reliable group by the second half of the season.  The question is, can NU do well enough in the opening half of the schedule to still make it to Indianapolis while the secondary forms and Thorson regains his strength?  Let’s find out.

2018 Schedule

At Purdue

• Best Case – Purdue has to replace eight starters on defense.  1-0
• Worst Case – Thorson isn’t 100% and the offense struggles.  0-1
• Prediction – Regarding Thorson, have to go based on his word and the word of his coaches right?  In that case let’s assume he really is 95-100%, that doesn’t bode well for the new PU defense.  W, 28-20, 1-0 (1-0)

Duke

• BC – Duke’s OL is a massive concern.  Didn’t I just spend 15 paragraphs talking about the NU front seven?  2-0
• WC – Daniel Jones is a good qb, maybe he picks apart the new look secondary.  0-2
• P – Last year’s result was a strange one with Duke winning 41-17.  I think that means Fitz has everyone’s full attention that week in practice.  W, 35-17, 2-0 (1-0)

Akron

• BC – I swear this is the 8th time I’ve seen Akron scheduled.  Might as well add them.  Their soccer program is really good.  3-0
• WC – Zips struggled against top-end MAC and non conference teams last year.  1-2
• P – Akron’s defense is good enough to make it interesting, but NU will pull away at some point.  W, 28-14, 3-0 (1-0)

Michigan

• BC – Shea Patterson is a bust and Michigan is a similar team to last year with all defense and zero offense.  4-0
• WC – Michigan’s rush defense is amazing and I’m just not as confident in NU’s ability to run the ball now without Justin Jackson.  1-3
• P – Wildcats will be their usual scrappy selves, especially with that stacked front seven, but I don’t see NU putting up enough points to pull out the win.  L, 17-7, 3-1 (1-1)

At Michigan State

• BC – Thorson had a gem in this one last year with 356 passing yards.  They’ll need that kind of day to win in East Lansing this year.  5-0
• WC – Michigan State returns 19 starters on both sides of the ball.  They are a true championship contender and Northwestern is nice but a dark horse for a reason.  1-4
• P – Northwestern has tons of pieces I love but MSU is the more complete club right now and the home team.  L, 28-21, 3-2 (1-2)

Nebraska

• BC – This Husker club has so many holes on it.  Great opportunity for NU-Purple to knock off their NU rival.  6-0
• WC – NU-Red was historically awful on defense last year and it still took the Cats overtime to polish them off.  1-5
• P – Cornhusker Blackshirts are still going to be bad.  That is great news for Thorson.  W, 31-21, 4-2 (2-2)

At Rutgers

• BC – Welcome to the top 10, Northwestern.  7-0
• WC – Despite seemingly everything going wrong this year, NU still beats down the hapless Knights.  2-5
• P – Better foundation, more talented, and more explosive on offense.  Northwestern gets a nice road win before the big one.  W, 28-10, 5-2 (3-2)

Wisconsin

• BC – In a top-10 thriller, the Cardiac Cats drill a 50 yard field goal as time expires to win.  8-0
• WC – Better foundation, more talented, and more explosive on offense.  Wisconsin gets a nice road win.  2-6
• P – Wildcat’s rush d versus the Badger rushing attack…this should be a great game!  I just think Wisconsin is a bit more of a complete team on offense and has a reloaded, not rebuilt, defense.  L, 24-17, 5-3 (3-3)

Notre Dame

• BC – Notre Dame got exposed the last four games of the year going 2-2 with two blowout losses and two very narrow victories.  Plus its Brian Kelly, he ain’t exactly Knute.  9-0
• WC – Notre Dame won double-digit games last year and they are a blue blood, so of course they are going to be highly ranked all year.  Bowl dreams busted.  2-7
• P – Irish haven’t had back-to-back 10+ win seasons since…1992-1993.  In 2016 they went 4-8 so was last year the breakthrough or an anomaly?  With up and down qb play and several key skill position players gone, I think the Irish come back to earth a bit.  Monster upset for Fitz’s crew.  W, 31-28, 6-3 (3-3)

At Iowa

• BC – Doesn’t NU beat Iowa every year?  That’s the deal with the devil Kirk Ferentz made for……..something.  10-0
• WC – The offense just never comes together, the secondary is a mess, and the lack of LB depth rears its ugly head when injuries start to pile up.  2-8
• P – Oh god, oh god, what do I do?  Picking Iowa is a curse in this game yet they are the home team in an evenly matched affair.  After knocking on all sorts of wood, I have to go with the logical pick and that is Iowa.  They are better in the trenches and have a good secondary.  Plus it is in Iowa City.  L, 17-14, 6-4 (3-4)

At Minnesota

• BC – Um, are the Wildcats going to the “playoffs”?!?!  11-0
• WC – Gophers are enjoying a magical run like Northwestern put together last year.  2-9
• P – Cats enjoy edges at several position groups, especially when you factor in Minnesota’s wild ride to find a starting quarterback for this year.  W, 27-21, 7-4 (4-4)

Illinois

• BC – NU’s highest finish in the AP or coaches poll has been 7th in 1936, 1948, and 1995.  They head to Indianapolis ranked in the top 4.  12-0
• WC – Injuries mounted, some new faces didn’t pan out, and just like 2013 when they had a losing record after a 10-win 2012, Wildcats endure another off-season of “how do we fix this?”  2-10
• P – Hmm, I should probably do the smart thing and pick the less talented team with a worse coach playing on the road right?  Wrong.  Easy victory.  W, 38-10, 8-4 (5-4)

Final Notes

I think it is clear what makes NU such an interesting dark horse contender – that defensive front seven, a good OL, and a solid veteran QB but there are big things to overcome like the secondary, a new running back, the lack of a deep threat, and of course how that solid veteran QB’s health will be on opening day.  There is also that schedule.  I would agree with the most die-hard Wildcat fan that the on-paper pieces are nice, but with both Michigan schools as crossover games, a trip to Iowa, and having to open the season at Purdue is mighty difficult.  I think Northwestern will navigate it pretty well since I predict them to win eight games, but I don’t see them having enough to knock off Wisconsin and make their first Big Ten title game.