2018 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Michigan State

Coming off a 3-9 (1-8) stinker in 2016 and an offseason filled with disgusting crimes against women, last year was meant to be a rebuilding season but certainly not a return to relevance in the Big Ten east.  How wrong we (especially me) all were.  The Spartans knocked off Iowa in their Big Ten debut to get to 3-1 before heading to then #7 Michigan and in typical fashion for the rivalry as of late, the Green and White got the better of the Maize and Blue.  From there, MSU pushed their mark to 6-1 before a triple overtime thriller against Northwestern knocked the Spartans from the ranks of undefeated league teams.  No matter, next game they spoiled Penn State by a field goal.  They no showed at Ohio State 48-3 to cost them the division but they did knock off Maryland and Rutgers to wrap up the regular season with nine wins.  In the Holiday Bowl they absolutely embarrassed Washington State to get to double-digit wins for the sixth time in Mark Dantonio’s outstanding run.

Now that is the rosy way to describe the season.  Here is the cynical way to describe the season.  After getting shelled by Notre Dame in a 38-18 beat down, the Spartans managed to eek out four straight wins all by 8 points or less.  Exposed by Northwestern in an overtime thriller, Michigan State got lucky at home when Trace McSorley was way off and tossed three INTs.  The next week MSU played as we expected them to in a 48-3 blowout loss to Ohio State.  After being exposed as frauds, MSU knocked off Big Ten bottom feeders Rutgers and Maryland to win a stunning nine games.  In the Holiday Bowl they knocked off the super soft Washington State Cougars, a club that lost in a bowl to Minnesota of all teams in 2016, to somehow get to double-digit wins for the sixth time in Mark Dantonio’s unexpectedly good run.

So…is MSU back?  Is MSU really good?  Is MSU a fraud?  Is MSU really lucky?  I’m not sure it is that black or white.  Dantonio is a really crafty coach and has had a knack of winning tight games his whole career.  Sure there is luck in any football season but it’s not like MSU enjoyed a slew of freaky finishes like, oh, say, how they beat Michigan in 2015.  The bottom line is MSU took advantage of some great opportunities, maybe won one or two they shouldn’t have, and dropped at least a game they could have won (Northwestern).  The thing is though, last year really didn’t matter in the long run because it was meant to set up 2018 since, well, they have basically everyone back.  Winning 10 games was a massive treat but even the most dyed in the wool Spartan fan would have told you last year, “we’re pumped about 2018.”  As well they should be.

So when I say everyone, what do I mean by that?  Well under center All-Big Ten honorable mention Brian Lewerke is back after a 2800 yard, 20 TD, 7 INT, 59.0% season.  These are great numbers considering it was Lewerke’s first year as the starter.  Quarterback depth is a pinch of a concern, however.  Senior Mickey Macius has done nothing but hold a clipboard since transferring after the 2014 season from Austin Peay and two four-star freshman, Theo Day and Rocky Lombardi, are all that’s behind Lewerke if he gets banged up but if Lewerke plays all 12 again, MSU is in great shape.

One reason Lewerke’s breakthrough season was so impressive was his rushing ability.  The signal caller recorded 123 carries for 559 and 5 scores, all second best on the team.  He even had the longest rush of the year, a 61 yarder for six, so he easily qualifies as duel threat but Dantonio still wants to get more rushing from this team, especially from, ya know, the running backs.

Returning leading rusher Lj Scott factors in as a big reason this position group can up their contribution to the club.  He is coming off a nice 898 yard, 201 attempt, 8 score season as well as chipping in 20 receptions. The potential is there but it is worth noting that Scott hasn’t quite reached his full potential with just 14 TDs the last two years after racking up 11 in 2015.  He has also yet to have a 1000 yard season.  Don’t get me wrong, Scott is a nice back, it just feels like he could be a spectacular one considering he has averaged 4.9 yards a carry for his career. He also has durability seeing how he is averaging over 14 rushes a game for his career and has only missed a single game in three years so why doesn’t he have closer to 3000 yards and 30 touchdowns?  It is bizarre.

Like QB, depth is also a concern if Scott goes down.  The next leading rusher back is Darnell Stewart Jr who had 20 rushes for 140 yards but he is a wide receiver so in reality, the next returning rusher who is actually a running back is Connor Heyward with just 3 carries for 10 yards in 2017.  After that it’s all three-star young faces or fullbacks.  Speaking of fullbacks, Collin Lucas didn’t get a carry last year but he is a good lead blocker so having him back is a nice asset.

I think it is fair to say the backfield is talented with a lot of upside but lacking some depth.  This is not the issue at the other skill position set, wide out and tight end.  Leading receivers Felton Davis III (55 catches, 776 yards, 9 TDs), Darrell Stewart Jr (50 catches, 501 yards, 2 TDs), and Cody White (35 catches, 490 yards, 4 TDs) are all back for Lewerke.  Hunter Rison’s transfer to Kansas State (19 receptions, 224 yards) is a bit of a hit since he was a freshman last year but there is more than enough talent for Dantonio to offset this loss.  Cam Chambers and Laress Nelson both saw action as freshmen last year and word out of camp is that Chambers has made the leap and is ready to be a big contributor, something he did in the spring game with a five catch, 50 yard outing.

Meanwhile at the TE position, State returns three guys who contributed last year so should be set there, too.  Senior Matt Sokol led the way with 21 catches, 222 yards, and a score.  At 6’6″, 255 he is a load to go against in blocking schemes and in coverage.  Sophomores Noah Davis and Matt Dotson both saw action last year and could enjoy expanded roles this year.  This position is boosted by incoming four-star freshman Trenton Gillison who turned down among many schools Wisconsin, a program that loves to use the tight end.

All this returning skill position flash is going to have the privilege of playing with, you guessed it, an experienced line.  I mean it really is easy to write about a team that returns 10 of 11 offensive starters.  Anyhoo, the line’s blind side is manned by left tackle Cole Chewins.  He has 16 consecutive starts at the position and while he struggled in the Ohio State game (I mean who didn’t), he was solid every other outing.  The hope for the coaching staff is Chewins can go from solid to outstanding and get the Spartans back into the title game.

Joining Chewins at tackle is All-Big Ten freshman and All-Big Ten honorable mention, Luke Campbell.  Campbell has the right tackle position on lockdown for this line.  Jordan Reid got into the rotation in all 13 games last year and adds some nice depth to the tackle position…or guard…or center because Reid is a Swiss Army knife that, if he doesn’t earn a starting tackle job, will be seen all over this line.

On the interior MSU has…well of course they do…a lot back.  David Beedle was an All-Big Ten third teamer last year and exploded on the scene after starting the final six games of the year.  He also had a big ass zero in the stat line, as in, zero sacks allowed.  The other guard is Kevin Jarvis who is coming off a fantastic true freshman season.  He was an All-Big Ten freshman team honorable mentioned and had 10 consecutive starts to end last year.

So that just leaves that lone starter MSU needs to replace and that would be the dude snapping the ball.  Here MSU enjoys a family legacy as Brian Allen’s job has a great shot to go to his younger brother, Matt.  Finally there is Tyler Higby.  He played in all 13 but lost his starting job to Beedle midway through the year.  He had a devastating broken ankle in 2016 so perhaps he still wasn’t 100% and that’s why the coaches went with Beedle or maybe Beedle was always the man but his nicked up knee prevented him from being the opening starter but I digress.  Higby has a ton of experience and a trick up his sleeve…he is trying to master his craft at snapping to win the starting center gig.

Well that was an easy write-up for the offense.  Now comes the double dose of easy, the Spartan D that finished 7th in the nation in total defense and 2nd in rushing, returns nine starters.  What an embarrassment of riches.  Since MSU is deep and talented all over, I’ll just start with the nasty gentlemen sticking a hand in the ground along the line.

Right smack dab in the middle State welcomes back a pair of tackles with 16 consecutive starts each.  Raequan Williams was an All-Big Ten honorable mention a year ago with 31 tackles, 6.0 TFLs, and 2.5 sacks.  Williams is paired with Mike Panasiuk who was also an All-Big Ten honorable mention.  DT depth is strong with Naquan Jones and Gerald Owens back, too.  Jones saw action in every game last year as a freshman and Owens has 18 appearances in his career so far.

On the outside Kenny Willekes has one of the end spots tied down.  He is coming off an All-Big Ten third team season and racked up 7 sacks and 14.5 TFLs, both leading the Spartans.  Willekes’s end mate is a little up in the air right now.  Senior Dillon Alexander got four starts a year ago and Jacub Panasiuk had 13 appearances as a freshman last year so while end should be serviceable, it isn’t as strong as the interior and could be the difference between MSU making it to Indianapolis or not.  A potential x-factor to bolster this group is incoming four-star prospect Parks Gissinger.

Behind this line that is full of upside and three key cogs is a wrecking ball of a linebacker in Joe Bachie.  Bachie was an All-Big Ten third team member as a sophomore and racked up 100 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, and 3 picks.  Bachie is a natural talent at MLB and when his career is all over, we could be saying he is the best defensive player Dantonio has ever coached.

Joining Bachie is returning starter Andrew Dowell who finished second on the team with 74 tackles to go along with 2.5 TFLs, a sack, and four pass break-ups.  These two form a great tandem but the staff will need to find a third starter.  There are a few options to step up.  The oddest one to talk about is Jon Reschke who has had a very strange career.  He was a key reserve as a freshman back in 2014 then started all 14 games in 2015.  In 2016 he started two games before a season-ending injury.  Last year he served a full season suspension for using the N-word in a racially insensitive text.  Ignoring the morality of MSU’s decision to reinstate him and just looking at the on-field impact, if Reschke can recapture his 2015 magic, he is a big addition for this club, even if (and now putting in some judgement) the suspension was pretty much a slap on the wrist and how do people learn without, oh say, real consequences?

If Reschke hasn’t regained the needed speed other options for that third starter comes from Brandon Randle who had 13 appearances and played over 200 snaps last season, Tyriq Thompson (12 appearances, 112 snaps), Antjuan Simmons (13 appearances as a freshman, special teams stud with 10 tackles on kickoffs alone), Grayson Miller (former starter at safety who used last year to change positions), or maybe even Byron Bullough (Bachie’s back up at MLB).  Personally, I think losing almost two full seasons for Reschke will be too much to overcome, not to mention the strain it could cause in the locker room.  So with that in mind, I think Randle, Simmons, or even Thompson is poised for a massive breakout season with me leaning towards Randle but that young gun Simmons will get plenty of action.

To wrap up the defense is a back-end that on paper looks fantastic.  Corner has two legit stars in Josiah Scott and Justin Layne.  Scott is coming off an outstanding freshman campaign that ended with spots on ESPN’s Freshman All-America team, All-Big Ten freshman team, and an All-Big Ten honorable mention.  Unfortunately Scott was hurt in camp earlier this month and is out for about two months, so for at least a little bit MSU will have to rely on their secondary depth.

As for Layne, he was “only” an All-Big Ten honorable mention last year despite 2017 being his first full year as a corner because in 2016 he split duties at CB and WR.  Astonishing stuff.  Depth at corner is strong as Josh Butler got 12 appearances and four spot starts due to injury.  Finally incoming freshman Kalon Gervin is a four-star stud that landed at 256th on ESPN’s top 300 and turned down an astonishing THIRTY power five offers to stay home state with MSU.  Included in those 30 offers were the likes of Alabama, Auburn, Oklahoma, and a bunch of other marquee programs.

Safety also gets back two starters and a slew of depth to round it out.  The starters are David Dowell and Khari Willis.  Dowell made the media’s All-Big Ten first team and is on the Thorpe watch list to start the year after having a spectacular sophomore campaign in 2017.  Willis was an All-Big Ten honorable mention last year after roving the field to rack up 71 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 4 sacks.  The senior doesn’t just rush up and fill in on plays but is also a disciplined safety with two picks and three pass break-ups last year.  Matt Morrissey, Dominique Long, and four-star freshman Michael Dowell contribute to secondary depth that will be called on as Scott gets healthy.

So I should note that you just saw a bunch of Dowells on the roster.  The incoming freshman Michael, is the younger brother to David and Andrew who are twins.  It’s safe to say the Dowell family heads to East Lansing more times than just parent’s weekend with now three kids on the roster.

Thankfully, finally, we reach the end of all this talent back except we don’t because I would be an idiot not to mention MSU’s specialists.  Matt Coghlin is coming off a great freshman season where he connected on 15 of 19 field goals and was perfect on point afters.  Kid has a boot too as he hit on 4 of 7 from beyond 40.  Punter Jake Hartbarger is also a defensive weapon as almost 40% of his punts land inside the 20 and many of those find their way inside the ten.

2018 Schedule

Utah State

• Best Case – Aggies made a bowl last year but were outscored a combined 105-20 against power league competition.  1-0
• Worst Case – This club was a middling 4-4 against Mountain West opponents.  1-0
• Prediction – Outside of German kicker Dominik Eberle having a puncher’s chance at winning the Lou Groza this year, Utah State’s talent just doesn’t line up to Michigan State’s.  W, 24-7, 1-0

At Arizona State

• BC – Herm Edwards, are you kidding me?  2-0
• WC – Firing Todd Graham was a pretty questionable move but bringing in Herm Edwards?  It’s going to be a (bleep) show.  2-0
• P – I feel bad for Manny Wilkins (3270 yards, 63.4%, 20 TDs, 8 INTs last year) having to end his career with the absolute farce that the Herm Edwards hiring is.  W, 38-17, 2-0

At Indiana

• BC – Hoosiers put a scare in MSU last year losing just 17-9 but IU has a ton of new starters on defense where as MSU is stacked with returning offensive pieces.  3-0
• WC – Then again, Indiana’s offense has some really nice pieces, maybe the Hoosiers win a thrilling shootout.  2-1
• P – Look at my best case, just too much offensive potential with this Spartan club to see Indiana pulling this upset off.  W, 31-21, 3-0 (1-0)

Central Michigan

• BC – CMU’s OL and WR groups have a lot of question marks.  That’s not good for the Chips against this Spartan D.  4-0
• WC – Maybe the Chippewa defense keeps it close for a half, exposing MSU starters to injury.  3-1
• P – Central plays scrappy but by the midpoint of the second quarter, MSU starts to take control.  W, 35-10, 4-0 (1-0)

Northwestern

• BC – Another triple overtime thriller.  Oh wait, that is best case for us as fans.  5-0
• WC – Thorson’s knee is healthy and he has another 356 yard explosion like last year.  3-2
• P – NU has a lot of potential but so much of it comes down to if Thorson is back from that torn ACL in the bowl.  MSU is at home and the more complete team.  W, 28-21, 5-0 (2-0)

At Penn State

• BC – Spartans had a great game plan defensively a year ago and Lewerke goes off again for another 400 yards.  You read that right, he had 400 yards in this game last year.  6-0
• WC – Yeah, I don’t see another 400 yard day, or Trace McSorely getting picked off three times again.  3-3
• P – There is so much to like about both teams so in a total coin flip, I will give the slightest of edges to Penn State since it is in Beaver Stadium.  L, 27-24, 5-1 (2-1)

Michigan

• BC – Another year, another dumbfounded surrender cobra spotted among the Michigan fans.  7-0
• WC – Shea Patterson means that Michigan can do something we call the “forward pass.”  3-4
• P – Michigan’s defense was even better than MSU’s last year and returns practically everyone as well.  Heartbreaker in East Lansing.  L, 13-10, 5-2 (2-2)

Purdue

• BC – Purdue’s defense regresses to the mean while their offense remains grounded like it was last year.  8-0
• WC – All those narrow victories from last year become narrow defeats this year.  3-5
• P – Like their rivals at IU, Boilermakers also have to replace eight starters on defense.  Uh-oh.  W, 24-10, 6-2 (3-2)

At Maryland

• BC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL!  9-0
• WC – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL!  3-6
• P – I MADE MARYLAND’S PICKS BEFORE THE DURKIN SCANDAL!  L, 20-17, 6-3 (3-3)

Ohio State

• BC – More allegations come out and Urban’s garbage three game suspension becomes a justified firing.  10-0
• WC – MSU’s offense regresses due to a lack of rushing game and keeps losing heartbreakers by three to seven points.  3-7
• P – I don’t see MSU actually going 0-3 against PSU, Michigan, and OSU but I don’t write these points with a certain amount of wins banked in.  I just look at the match-ups on paper and make a prediction as if both clubs are 0-0 and fully healthy.  With that in mind, the Buckeyes are a little deeper and a little more talented.  L, 28-24, 6-4 (3-4)

At Nebraska

• BC – Huskers are absolute hot garbage, MSU is passed all their tough tests, and have a cakewalk to Indianapolis and the “playoffs.”  11-0
• WC – Frost somehow has the Huskers magically competitive and rather than living by the close game like last year, the Spartans are now dying by the close game this year.  3-8
• P – I don’t see a single position group that NU is better at.  Easy road victory.  W, 45-10, 7-4 (4-4)

Rutgers

• BC – Head to Indy ranked number one in all major polls.  12-0
• WC – After a long season, the seniors are sent out the right way with a spanking of Rutgers.  4-8
• P – RU has zero offense.  Tough to win with that attribute.  W, 35-0, 8-4 (5-4)

Final Notes

I want to change something!  Can I change something?  Well it is my blog so I can do that.  So back when previewing Maryland I wrote this for my prediction:

Michigan State won 10 games a year ago.  How?  Single score wins over Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, and Penn State.  Even against banged up Maryland they only won 17-7.  Sparty has a great defense but I’m still not as sold on them as I probably should be so I see this as a great opportunity for Maryland.  It is at home, the OL is experienced, the backfield is great, and the defense should be somewhat improved.  I’m talking myself into the Terps winning here.  Oh, it also helps that it is the week before the Ohio State game so MSU could be doing the old look-past.  W, 20-17, 6-3 (3-3)

OBVIOUSLY it could still pan out that way but when I was previewing Maryland, Jordan McNair’s passing was a tragedy but didn’t appear to be going anywhere passed a life cut down much too soon.  Since posting Maryland’s preview, the entire program has basically unraveled and no game is more impacted for previewing purposes than the Maryland-Michigan State game because I picked Maryland to pull off a huge, breakthrough upset.  That isn’t going to happen now.  It was a long shot even when Maryland looked like they were heading in the right direction.

With that in mind, I would change my predictions to MSU going 9-3 (6-3).  Bear in mind they are EXTREMELY dangerous and have great shots at knocking off the Bucks and Wolverines because those are home dates.  Bottom line is MSU is a Big Ten contender for sure and a sleeper team for making the “playoffs” thanks to having so many star players back on both sides of the ball.