Nebraska was awful in 2017 for a variety of reasons. Their coach, Mike Riley, was riding a golden parachute thanks to his AD friend giving him a huge pay check. So you have an uninterested head coach. Then new DC Bob Diaco tried to introduce a 3-4 scheme despite having few people to play well in their new roles resulting in a historically awful defense. There were other factors too but in the end, the team limped to a 4-8 (3-6) record that saw the team give up 50+ points a whopping FOUR times. In the end the program were blown up and in comes prodigal son Scott Frost.
Frost is a huge hire, but I want to tap the brakes just a tad. First of all, despite taking over an 0-12 UCF team, there is some important history there. George O’Leary wanted to retire. The school basically said, eh, wait until you have a successor in place. O’Leary basically said, okay, I’ll just do a god awful job and we will see who blinks first. After an 0-8 (0-4) start the school was like, oh, okay, I guess that retiring thing is real and let him walk. Why do I bring this all up? Because in 2013 UCF went 12-1 (8-0), won the Fiesta Bowl and was a top ten team. In 2014 UCF went 9-4 (7-1) and also won the American. This team had back-to-back league title before O’Leary wanted to head into a much deserved retirement. Frost inherited a roster MUCH better than the record indicated to go along with a state that produces gobs of talent and the turnaround was…well it wasn’t easy…but it also wasn’t like strolling into UTEP. Now Frost is tasked with turning around a team where the talent really is that of a four-win stinker to go along with a state that produces just a few college-ready players per class. Maybe Frost brings back the glory days, but I have a feeling returning to the Bo Pelini era of success is honestly the ceiling of this program.
So who is there to try to turn this thing around? Not a quarterback. The Tanner Lee experiment went as horribly as I predicted and his collegiate career is finally done and randomly with the Jags currently. I don’t see that lasting, but I’m not a NFL expert. Backup Patrick O’Brien decided to head to Colorado State to continue his career leaving a roster with exactly zero passes thrown.
The QB battle seems to be between Andrew Bunch, Tristan Gebbia, and Adrian Martinez. The winner will probably just be a place holder until Noah Vedral can play in 2019 after sitting out due to NCAA transfer rules. Vedral was recruited by Frost to come to UCF where he was the back up last year where he posted a nice stat line in an extremely small sample size.
Running back is also a mystery as the team was terrible at generating much of an attack. The Huskers as a team produced just 1290 yards on a paltry 3.5 average and just 13 scores. Leading rushers Devine Ozigbo (493 yards), Mikale Wilbon (379), and Tre Bryant (299) are all back. Neither Ozigbo or Wilbon have been that impressive in their careers so far and Bryant is coming off a knee injury that cost him ten games a year ago. Bryant was very good in the opening two games so if his explosiveness is back, there’s a chance running back isn’t a disaster. Rounding out the intriguing pieces of the RB corps is four-star Maurice Washington who landed at 93 on ESPN’s top 300. Despite all the upheaval with a coaching change, Washington stayed with the Huskers and picked them over 11 other power five programs.
The silver lining for Frost’s debut season comes in the receiving group. The top two leading receivers for the Huskers are back with the law firm, Stanley Morgan Jr and JD Spielman. While the two top partners can bring the bacon, the junior partners will try to chip in. Morgan Jr could have jumped to the pros after 61 catches, 986 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2017. JD Spielman is coming off a 55 reception, 830 yard, 2 TD freshman season. Spielman is the heir apparent and has a tall ceiling but I’m sure he will enjoy racking up the stats for another year as Morgan Jr gets the opposing defense’s primary defenders. This is of course assuming the quarterback that wins the job turns out to be a competent college starter.
As for those junior partners, Tyjon Lindsey was a four-star recruit who was placed as the 78th best prospect on ESPN’s top 300 in the class of 2017. While his true freshman year wasn’t a monster (12 catches, 76 yards) his upside is high and having a four-star kid as a reserve is certainly a nice feeling.
With the rest of the returning cast being walk-ons or upperclassmen with limited roles up to this point, I think a better use of our time is looking at some fresh faces that could step in and help this passing attack. The first is redshirt freshman Jaevon McQuitty who was a four-star prospect in 2017. He turned down six other Big Ten clubs to go to Lincoln. A pair of JUCO guys will have two years of edibility left and come with some nice resumes. Jaron Woodyard was the number two JUCO wide receiver prospect and helped Arizona Western go 20-2 his two years there. Woodyard is also a threat in the return game with 304 kickoff return yards last year. The other JUCO guy is Mike Williams who hauled in 30 catches for 669 yards and 7 scores as he helped get East Mississippi to an 11-1 record last year.
Finally, Frost’s system doesn’t really use the TE in the traditional role as much but rather another passing threat and Jack Stoll is coming off a decent freshman season so I think the Huskers should be fine there, too. Let’s be real though, all this potential in the receiving group and any QB development requires an offensive line that can compete and fortunately for Husker nation, the OL looks to be one of the better ones in the league.
This line will be anchored by a pair of guards, Jerald Foster and Tanner Farmer. Foster started all 12 games and has 16 starts at left guard over the last two seasons as well as earning an All-Big Ten honorable mention last season. Farmer has 19 starts over the last two seasons on the interior of the line. While the other line positions aren’t as set as guard, there is still a lot of upside, starting with Cole Conrad. Conrad got seven starts at center last year before injuries impacted his season but did return to start the final four games of 2017. Another high ceiling guy is Brenden Jaimes who is coming off an All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention debut. He started the final nine games at right tackle. Expect him to have one of the two tackle positions secured for opening day.
The final spot on the line will be somebody new but here again there is a lot of upside and very few questions. One candidate to fill this last spot is Matt Farniok. Farniok had an interested redshirt freshman season with seven appearances and four starts but he started games at RT and RG, making him a flexible asset for Frost. Another candidate is Boe Wilson who made 12 appearances as a redshirt freshman. Although mostly a special team’s contributor, Wilson did crack the OL rotation. Christian Gaylord also got into the rotation with 10 appearances. Of these guys, Farniok seems the most likely to nab a starting position but there are some young x-factors.
One of these kids is John Raridon who was a four-star prospect way back in the class of 2016. He was 107th on ESPN’s top 300 that year but only had one appearance last year as a redshirt freshman. Another pup is Matt Sichterman who was a four-star recruit in last year’s class but redshirted after picking Nebraska over a whopping 12 power offers. Finally there is Matt Farniok’s brother, Will. The younger Farniok was a top-ten center prospect and had six power five offers.
So there you have it, offensively this team has some awesome talent at WR, some intriguing pieces at RB that could pan out, a solid OL, and a massive dark cloud of question marks at quarterback. That indicates a team that could be really, really good on offense, or really, really bad on offense. Unfortunately, Nebraska will have to field a defense in 2018 and that’s where the excitement of Frost’s return will start to take a turn.
The defense he is inheriting finished 102nd in yards allowed per game, 117th in points allowed per game, 58th in passing, 114th in rushing, produced just 14 sacks (T-119th nationally), and finished 102nd in defensive efficiency, last in the Big Ten. Last by a bit, too. Illinois finished 94th and Rutgers finished 69th so Nebraska wasn’t just the worst defense in the Big Ten, they were among the worst defenses in the nation a year ago. The hope of improving on that side of the ball needs to be realistic. If Nebraska can crack the top 75 in total defense, that would be a great step forward, but I’m not sure they have the pieces to do it.
One reason the Huskers won’t completely turn the corner defensively is sticking to the 3-4 scheme. Yes Scott Frost’s DC Erik Chinander ran it at UCF but they don’t really have the right pieces for it still. To anchor a 3-4 line, you need to have a nose tackle and Mick Stoltenberg isn’t a good enough player to be a 3-4 NT. He came to NU as an end and was bottled up by the double team NTs get far too often a year ago. If Stoltenberg doesn’t improve enough to keep his starting job, grad transfer Vaha Vainuku could see the field a lot. The Utah grad actually has two years of edibility because he took time off for a Mormon mission but the guy is a mountain, listed at 6’3″, 325.
The ends also have familiar faces as both starters are back. Senior Freedom Akinmoladun has started 25 games over the last two seasons and was a member of the All-Big Ten freshman team back in 2015. On the other side is junior Carlos Davis. Davis started all 12 games last year and led this DL in tackles and sacks. The problem is this group is high on experience but low on actual results. Last year they combined for a grand total of 3.5 sacks (zero from Stoltenberg) and just didn’t harass offenses enough. Maybe they needed a year to grow into the 3-4 or maybe they are being forced to play in a scheme they weren’t recruited for. If it’s the later, how is NU going to have a reliable defense?
Switching schemes also forced players to change their roles. One is Ben Stille who went from a down lineman at end to a linebacker. He appeared in nine games with a start as a redshirt freshman but is now focused on playing end in camp for a switch back to being a down lineman. Based on the lack of production of the guys in front of him and Frost not feeling the need to show loyalty to anyone, maybe Stille will build off his All-Big Ten freshman team season and steal a starting gig. Another guy who was forced to change roles was Khalil Davis who had 12 appearances in 2017 as a tackle. Not big enough to go to NT, the second half of the Davis twins transitioned to end and got in 12 games as a reserve. Considering he had 2 sacks, just 1.5 less than the full-time starters combined for, there is a chance Davis could steal a starting job.
In addition to the regular reserves, there are some younger players who could also help out this line. The first is Deontre Thomas who was one of just two true freshman to play on the defense last year. The four-star recruit was offered scholarships by a ton of schools. He should see the field more as a part of the rotation but don’t rule him out of cracking the starting line up. Finally true freshman Tate Wildeman comes as a three or four-star recruit depending on the service you like. He also got quite a few power five offers.
The line is really a mess. The returning pieces they have weren’t very good at their jobs last year and the other options are guys changing positions or really young. Still, something has got to be done because without generating more of a pass rush, the Husker defense will continue to get shredded because the linebacking group is a major work in progress and the secondary group can’t cover all those holes.
So the 3-4 requires two inside linebackers and this will be easy to break down…Nebraska has just one known entity. Dedrick Young II started every game as a freshman in 2015, made nine more starts as a sophomore, and made 11 starts a year ago. He has the experience and racked up 80 tackles a year ago. While his only playing accolade is a Big Ten All-Freshman Team from 2015, he is the best option NU has for the ILB position.
Who will start besides Young II? I have zero clue. These are the options in alphabetical order: Mohamed Barry (back up last year, 38 tackles in 2017), Will Honas (#1 JUCO rated transfer), Spencer Jordan (changing from FB to ILB), Avery Roberts (the other true freshman who played, mostly a special teams guy), and Jacob Weinmaster (12 appearances, mostly special teams). Even if Honas lives up to the preseason hype, this position group is woefully thin.
Outside linebacker is also a head scratcher. Luke Gifford won one of the jobs last year in camp and started the first seven before missing the final five with injury. His numbers in those seven starts weren’t great however. He ended 2017 with just 20 solo tackles and 39 total. That is 2.86 solo tackles and 5.57 total per game. That means he was on pace for 66.84 tackles (34.32 solo). To put that in perspective, Josey Jewell was a top of the line college linebacker for Iowa (4-3 scheme) and had 132 total and 69 solo tackles a year ago. Another guy, T.J. Edwards at Wisconsin (also a 3-4 program) had 81 total tackles and 53 solo tackles. Gifford is like Young II, a nice player, but up to this point in their career not a great one. Gifford’s replacement for those final five games, Alex Davis, is also back. His per game tackles were even lower than Gifford’s and then you factor in he is yet another player who had to undergo a position change thanks to changing schemes as he went from a DE to an OLB.
After Gifford and Davis there are either returning reserves like Tyrin Ferguson, Sedrick King, or Collin Miller or giving a younger player an opportunity to shine. From this pool you have 2016 four-star Quayshon Alexander (yet to play a snap in his career), 2017 four-star Breon Dixon (Ole Miss transfer, eligible immediately), 2017 four-star Guy Thomas (redshirt freshman), and 2018 four-star Caleb Tannor. So from this group Dixon is the most likely to make an impact considering his talent and experience. That means you should see Gifford and Dixon line up as the OLBs. The lingering problem I have is Gifford still. He really needs to up his game for this position group to demonstrate that the husker D is ready for a leap.
Now we have to move to the back-end that was actually a respectable unit last year. The best player back is, well, it is hard to tell and I mean that in a good way. First up is safety Aaron Williams had a fantastic 2016 but then injuries made his 2017 season a tad uneven. Even with the nicks along the way he finished fourth on the team in tackles to lead the secondary. Next possibility is Tre Neal who wasn’t even with NU last year but was off winning a national title with UCF. The grad transfer knows the defense extremely well and could be a game changer for the Husker D. With a healthier Williams and the addition of Brown, safety looks to be a bright spot on the roster.
As good as safety looks, corner is the exact opposite. Eric Lee Jr is the best CB on paper but he made six starts last season before injury ended his season. Due to getting hurt early in the season and hardly playing in 2016, we really don’t know how Lee will do against Big Ten talent. The other corner returning is Lamar Jackson. He was the only secondary player to avoid injury last year and started all 12 games. Of course, NU finished near the bottom of so many defensive stats that I’m not sure those starts make me feel better or worse about having Jackson back.
Helping out the cause are a few other names worth mentioning. One is Antonio Reed who had four starts and 10 appearances at safety last year. He’s not as good as Williams and he doesn’t have the connection to Frost that Neal has so he is probably the odd man out of the starting rotation. Next is a pair of JUCO guys, Will Jackson and Deontai Harris, who offer immediate upgrades in at least depth, if not challenging for a starting gig. Then you have a pair of highly coveted four-star freshman coming in with C.J. Smith and Cam’ron Jones to bring the youth element. Finally Marquel Dismuke picked up 34 tackles as a bit of a swing performer, playing multiple positions. Undeniably the secondary is the best part of the Husker D but if the front seven shows zero improvement, I’m not sure the secondary will be enough to make the defense any better.
To add insult to injury, the reliable kicker Drew Brown also graduated leaving zero kickers on the roster with a collegiate attempt. At least Caleb Lightbourn is a good punter. Lord knows he will be getting plenty of action.
2018 Schedule
Akron
- Best Case – Akron made the MAC title game but struggled against non-MAC teams. Frost era begins with a nice victory. 1-0
- Worst Case – Terry Bowden has made the Zips respectable in the MAC but I still don’t think they have enough in the tank to spoil the debut. 1-0
- Prediction – 52, 41, 48, 45, 50. Those were the points allowed against some of the better teams the Zips faced a year ago. W, 45-10, 1-0
Colorado
- BC – A year after making the Pac 12 title game, the Buffs struggled to a 5-7 (2-7) mark. 2-0
- WC – Colorado has something NU doesn’t and that is a quarterback. 1-1
- P – Colorado felt like a hard-luck club a year ago losing two games by a combined seven points as well as dropping the Arizona State game by 11 despite having a fourth quarter lead. Just a few plays away from being 8-5. I think the Buffs rebound a little bit and steal this one thanks to NU’s lack of pass rush. L, 35-31, 1-1
Troy
- BC – Troy may have gone 11-2 last year but they are a Sun Belt club and lost to Boise State. 3-0
- WC – Troy was in my top-25 for a reason and won at LSU last year. 1-2
- P – There is a lot to love about this Troy team but they are breaking in a new quarterback, so I think the Huskers can take advantage of Troy being a little new look as well. W, 28-17, 2-1
At Michigan
- BC – Shea Patterson is a bust and NU finds themselves a winner under center. 4-0
- WC – Michigan has been about a quarterback away from something special, Big Ten is in for a shock if Patterson is the real deal. 1-3
- P – Does NU have a significant edge in any position group? Maybe in OL and WR, but even then I’m not sure they are significantly better than Michigan. Combine that with a trip to the Big House and you have a lopsided one brewing. L, 31-14, 2-2 (0-1)
Purdue
- BC – NU needed a major comeback to win this a year ago. Purdue’s offense looks to be better, NU’s defense looks to be the same. 4-1
- WC – Boilers went bowling for a reason. 1-4
- P – Sure Purdue has eight new starters on defense, but Nebraska has a ton, too. L, 31-17, 2-3 (0-2)
At Wisconsin
- BC – Ya know, Nebraska only lost this one by 21 a year ago…4-2
- WC – Hahaha, no. 1-5
- P – Jonathan Taylor had 249 rushing yards and Wisconsin had 353 as a team. Ugly stuff. L, 42-10, 2-4 (0-3)
At Northwestern
- BC – This has been one of the most exciting games the last few years and Northwestern won it in OT last year. Nebraska returns the favor as they get back on track. 5-2
- WC – Wildcats return one of the league’s better defensive lines and one of the best linebacking units, hmm. 1-6
- P – If healthy, Clayton Thorson is one of the best QBs in the division. Uh-oh for the Blackshirts. L, 31-21, 2-5 (0-4)
Minnesota
- BC – Hey look, a team with just as bad a QB situation in the off-season as Nebraska. 6-2
- WC – Um, this one was 54-21 a year ago in favor of the Gophers. Some of those pieces are back, ya know. 1-7
- P – If Minnesota’s qb situation shakes itself out, I actually think the UM roster has a pinch more on it than Nebraska’s, especially defensively. L, 35-20, 2-6 (0-5)
At Ohio State
- BC – Umm, nope. At least you’re bowling. 6-3
- WC – This one was a 56-14 a year ago in favor of the Bucks. Some of those pieces are back, ya know. 1-8
- P – Massive talent gap in this one, even if Urban Meyer is MIA. L, 56-17, 2-7 (0-6)
Illinois
- BC – Illinois went winless a year ago and has their own issues up and down the roster. 7-3
- WC – Of course, if Illinois is improved, this is the type of game they could win. 1-9
- P – Two rebuilding rosters so go with the home team. W, 28-17, 3-7 (1-6)
Michigan State
- BC – MSU lived and died by the narrow game a year ago. Maybe the Huskers can pick them off at home. 8-3
- WC – MSU overachieved last year and returns a frightening amount of talent. 1-10
- P – On paper, MSU is better at literally every position group. Ruh-row. L, 45-10, 3-8 (1-7)
At Iowa
- BC – A stunner as Nebraska ends not just in a bowl but ranked and heading to a postseason game people have actually heard of. 9-3
- WC – This one was a 56-14 a year ago in favor of the Hawks. Some of those pieces are back, ya know. 1-11
- P – Yes Iowa will have some new faces, but they got a lot back and a big advantage right now under center. Plus it’s a home game for the Hawkeyes. L, 31-21, 3-9 (1-8)
Final Notes
The OL and the WR groups are undeniably solid. The secondary is also pretty nice but this team has massive issues. Depth at all their positions, even the good ones is a concern. The running back health and development is another. The shoddy DL and LB groups is a big one. The kicking game will take a step back, too. All of those would be a lot to overcome for even a team with an experienced starting quarterback. Sadly for Husker nation, they don’t have an experienced starting quarterback so with all those deficiencies combined with a big “HUH?” at starting quarterback, the losses are going to mount.
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