Glass half empty folks would say like most seasons of Indiana football, there were a lot of close but no cigar moments last year. The team finished 5-7 (2-7) and a four game skid right in the middle of the year doomed them. Worse, three of those four losses were by single scores and one came in overtime against Michigan. In short, IU football is always a bridesmaid and never a bride.
Glass half full folks would say like most seasons of Indiana football there were a lot of flashes of things to come despite injuries. A 41-0 thrashing of Rutgers, dominating a bowl bound ACC team on the road, nearly knocking off Michigan and Michigan State, and the big one, all this achieved in Tom Allen’s first year. Most of the time an Indiana football coaching change results in a massive drop off but the program survived a surprising change from Kevin Wilson to Allen due to Wilson’s treatment of players. So while IU didn’t make a third straight bowl last year, they were mostly able to keep the boat afloat. In short, IU football is always knocking on the door and not a hopeless situation.
One of the big reasons the Hoosiers stayed competitive and weren’t the Titanic a season ago was a favorable quarterback situation. Senior Richard Lagow was one of many Indiana players to battle injuries in 2017 and when he missed game time, Peyton Ramsey stepped up despite being a freshman. He played very well in the Virginia win and picked apart Charleston Southern. Even though he didn’t win a league game in his stretch, Ramsey wasn’t a disaster. Against Maryland he connected on 31 of 41 for 279 yards, 3 scores, and a pick. With Ramsey back and grad transfer Brandon Dawkins coming over from Arizona, I think the quarterback situation will remain favorable.
The next big reason the Hoosiers stayed competitive and weren’t the Andria Doria was a solid group of receivers. While replacing the massive shoes of Simmie Cobbs Jr will be difficult, there are pieces to work with. One piece is senior Luke Timian who is coming off an explosive junior year as he racked up 589 yards on 68 receptions. A second piece is sophomore Whop Philyor who had a productive freshman season turning 33 catches into 335 yards. Even more impressive, Philyor put that season together despite missing camp last year with, you guessed it, injury.
Timian and Philyor are a great place to start but this position group gets (knock on wood) a massive influx of talent by kids just getting healthy. Nick Westbrook was amazing in 2016 and finished with the second most receiving yards in the Big Ten that year. Last season he tore his ACL the first play of the year against Ohio State. Donavan Hale made some contributions as a sophomore in 2016 with 13 catches, 210 yards, and a score and was on pace for a breakout season with 7 catches, 116 yards, and a score last year before he too had a season-ending injury in the third game. J-Shun Harris II was an All-Big Ten Freshman honorable mention back in 2014 before back-to-back torn ACL seasons but got back on the field last year and had three catches. If just one of these guys stays healthy, IU can have a solid WR group. If two or more stay healthy, IU will have an electrifying WR group.
Tight End also has a big talent to replace in Ian Thomas but does have some intriguing prospects on the roster to fill that void. The first is senior Ryan Watercutter who still managed to catch 12 passes for 69 yards as a reserve. After Watercutter there are three young pups and an intriguing vet who could nab the starting gig. The vet is redshirt junior Austin Dorris who is a massive 6’5″ 256, by far the largest tight end on the team and was ranked as high as the 25th best TE in his class a few years ago. The most heralded of the trio of freshman is T.J. Ivy who racked up seven power five offers including pass happy offensive juggernaut, West Virginia.
So while the passing game has some nice upside, it won’t matter without balance from the rushing game or the offensive line improving after giving up 29 sacks a year ago. That doesn’t sound awful, and it wasn’t, coming in at a tie for 45th nationally, but in the Big Ten only five teams saw their qb dropped more: three of them played an extra game though with a bowl (Northwestern 31 sacks, Purdue 33 sacks, and Michigan 36 sacks), one saw both of their starting qbs get hurt early in the season (Maryland, 35 sacks), and the other was winless Illinois with a whopping 42 sacks. So sure, 29 sacks and 45th nationally isn’t the end of the world, but it isn’t something the Hoosiers can afford to repeat.
One help coming to bolster this offensive line is grad transfer Nick Linder from Miami (FL). Linder was formelly the starting center and had 22 starts at the position and 26 starts overall for his career in Coral Gables before injury cost him his starting position with the Hurricanes. IU already had some options at center with Hunter Littlejohn starting all 12 games there a season ago and Harry Crider getting eight games of action as a reserve so I see four options how to utilize Linder’s talents to boost this unit:
- With the right side of the line not as set as the left, Linder could free up Littlejohn to shift
- Linder could play left guard, something he did at Miami, and then current LG Wes Martin (25 straight starts at LG) flips to the right
- Linder adopts a new position and plays on the right side
- Start Linder at center, Littlejohn serves as an experienced back up as he and Crider get some seasoning
Each pick comes with a lot of pros and cons but I really think Indiana needs a way to get their five best offensive linemen out there to cut down on those sack numbers and I believe Linder is one of their five best linemen.
Anyway, I mentioned the right side not being as set as the left so let’s look at that left side. Obviously Wes Martin has been a frequent face with 31 overall career starts and 25 in a row at that position. He is also a team captain and was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year. Perhaps this means option two is dead on arrival for Allen’s line. At Left Tackle we have another stalwart in the lineup with Coy Cronk who has started all 25 games of his career so far in Bloomington and was on numerous All-Freshman teams both in league and nationwide back in 2016.
Okay, so that right side has seen a lot of people start so there is experience, but what mix will make it effective? Most probable person to see time is Simon Stepaniak who won the Right Guard job last year in camp and started all six games in which he appeared but like several off his teammates, was plagued by injuries and missed the other six games. Then you got Brandon Knight who appeared in the final 10 games last year and made eight starts at Right Tackle. He also played in eight games with six starts in 2016 before a season-ending injury two years ago. Another experienced guy is Delroy Baker who had 10 appearances last year and got four starts at tackle once Knight went down with injury. Finally there is Stepaniak’s replacement, Mackenzie Nworah, who got six starts in 10 appearances when Stepaniak was out. Reserve DaVondre Love and touted recruit Aidan Raferty round out the most likely impact guys.
It feel a little like a rubrics cube to see how all these pieces will fit, especially with the addition of Linder. If I were to take a wild guess, I would say that the left side will remain Martin on the inside and Cronk on the outside. Put Linder in his natural position at center with Littlejohn as his back up. Finally go with last year’s original right side with Stepaniak at guard and Knight at tackle. My stipulation would be to rotate frequently and have a bit of a shorter leash because the line cannot be the sack allowing machine it was a year ago.
You notice I haven’t talked about running backs yet and I always talk about running backs, probably more than any position outside of QB, so it’s a good bet that IU’s weakest aspect on offense will be the stable of backs they have. Perhaps it was the combination of youth and the OL but the running game lacked the usual Indiana pop. As a team just 1561 yards generated, 3.5 rushing average, and 11 total touchdowns. Not surprisingly, IU did not have a 1000 yard back last season. They didn’t even have an 800 yard back as Morgan Ellison led the way with 704 yards. Now he missed two games and had a 17 yard dud against Wisconsin and a 16 yard mess against Purdue to really throw off his consistent 50ish yards a game and was an All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention but there is still plenty of learning to do.
Ellison isn’t the only one needing to up their game as second leading rusher, Cole Gest, chipped in 475 yards on 103 carries. Like Ellison, a huge day against Rutgers in that 41-0 romp shows the flashes, but at many points Gest was just ignored by the play calling. He finished with double-digit carries in four of the final five games but had 7 or fewer carries in most of the games before that streak. Ellison and Gest make for a nice backfield but they are really it as the third leading rusher was Peyton Ramsey with 226. Everyone else was under 100 yards for the season.
Supposing Ellison or Gest go down, can anyone emerge? The answer is…maybe. There are some vets on this roster that at least know what it’s like to be in four camps and learn collegiate offenses and defenses. One is Ricky Brookins and the other is Mike Majette. Majette played five games with three starts last year as a he was ahead of Ellison on the depth chart before injuries ended his season. He has back-to-back long-term injuries so health is a major question mark with Majette. Brookins will see the field, he has every game of his career, but it will be as a reserve. There is a final name that I would be a fool not to tell you about and that is Ronnie Walker Jr. The prized four-star recruit had offers from five Big Ten teams alone among other power-five offers.
Ellison showed enough flashes last year to probably be the day one starter but Majette could reclaim his job, Walker could shine in camp, or maybe Gest matures faster than Ellison and they start to split carries even more than last year. I don’t know what fixes Allen and his staff will ultimately go with, but finishing 106th in rushing is not an option if Indiana is going to make that bowl game this year.
Thankfully, the defense could shape up to be a good one. Probably the biggest reason the Hoosiers didn’t turn into the Poseidon Adventure a year ago was that side of the ball. The Hoosiers finished 6th in the league in total yards a season ago and while they have a whopping eight starters to replace, including the outstanding Tegray Scales. IU is hoping a mix of returning starters, decent reserves, a key grad transfer, and Allen being an outstanding defensive coach have the potential to keep the Hoosiers strong on that side of the ball.
With so many new faces, we might as well just start up front with the defensive line and work our way back to safety. The DL is where we find one of those three starters back and that is with tackle Jacob Robinson. He started all 12 games at the position a year ago, seven starts in 11 appearances as a sophomore the year before, and 13 appearances as a freshman. Not only is Robinson talented but he is durable. too. A very nice way to anchor this line.
Grad transfer Kayton Samuels is a huge addition to this line metaphorically and literally as he is 6’0″ 320 pounds. He had 34 appearances and 24 starts in a solid career at Syracuse. After Robinson and Samuels, coach Allen is really banking on Jerome Johnson’s continued development. The All-Big Ten freshman honorable mention played in all 12 games a season ago. Added bonus, he is a redshirt sophomore so despite having plenty of years left eligibility wise, he has been in coach Allen’s system for two full camps. Finally the Hoosiers will hope and pray that the talented Nile Sykes can stay healthy at DE. Sykes got into 24 games his first two years on campus but had a season-ending injury in the offseason last year. His health, plus Johnson’s development, could really make this a nice unit.
Indiana also has some nice reserves with experience to add depth to the DL. One is Mike Barwick Jr who made a start last year and has 25 total game appearances under his belt. Another is Allen Stallings IV with 12 apperances last year and ended up finishing third in tackles for DL players despite not being a starter. Finally Ja’merez Bowen has 15 apperances over the last two season. I think you’ll see all three guys, especially Stallings IV maybe even seals a starting gig. Behind these guys are a slew of incoming freshman as Allen has really recruited this position well.
It might look a little patchwork right now with a grad transfer and hoping Sykes stays healthy but I kind of like this line. It is a good mix of proven commodities in Robinson and Samules to go along with a nice young piece in Johnson. I think between Sykes and Stallings IV there will be enough to find a solid group of four to run Allen’s 4-2-5. Of course if they absolutely need to, Samuels did play nose tackle a lot at Syracuse so maybe they even throw some 3-4 looks at teams.
Behind the line it is a mess. Tegray Scales and Chris Covington are both in the NFL now so linebacker is woefully inexperienced. The most experienced player back is Dameon Willis Jr who had just two starts a year ago and played 10 games overall. Then you have Michael McGinnis (11 appearances) and Reakwon Jones (10 apperances) followed by…not a whole lot. Sure you got the usual mix of walk-ons, freshman, and redshirt freshman but none of them are on the radar enough to mention outside of T.D. Roof. The Georgia Tech transfer got a waiver from the NCAA to be eligible this year and after 11 apperances in his freshman year last year, he provides some much needed experience. Interestingly enough Roof isn’t the only son of a college head coach on the roster. Ted Roof’s kid is joined by Tom Allen’s son, freshman Thomas Allen.
Despite the LB group looking like a construction site, I mentioned Allen runs the 4-2-5. One of the things that makes this formation formidable is that roving fifth secondary player that can act like a linebacker one play and a safety on the next and Indiana has a good one in this flex role with Marcelino Ball. Ball finished 2016 with the third most tackles and was a member of the All-Big Ten Freshman team that year. Like, well, a lot of Hoosier players, he missed almost all of last year with injury. Thanks to taking it as a redshirt year, Allen gets to have what is probably his most effective defensive player on the roster for three more years.
Joining Ball in the secondary is a hodgepodge of pieces that, like the DL, could end up being much better than the sum of their parts. One of those parts is Jonathan Crawford, an outstanding safety. Crawford was on the All-Big Ten Freshman team and has back-to-back All-Big Ten honorable mentions thus far in his three-year career. He’s a sure tackler, pass defender, and has an uncanny ability to jump on fumbles. Joining Crawford in the secondary is corner Andre Brown Jr. He started eight games as a freshman in 2015 before getting hurt. He missed 2016 for injuries too but came back last year with 10 starts. He made it through last year so hopefully injuries are a thing of the past for Brown Jr because he is a really talented kid and a part of the All-Big Ten academic team so it is easy to root for him to succeed.
After Ball at the hybrid husky position, Crawford locking things down at safety, and Brown Jr having a ton of upside at corner, the Hoosiers need to find two more faces to complete the 4-2-5. The options here are thin on experience though. A’Shon Riggins has seen the field a lot the last two years with 18 appearances and 11 starts but Riggins is coming back from an injury that limited him to just three starts last year. Raheem Layne appeared in all 12 as a freshman and started the Rutgers game so perhaps his development is enough to crack the starting line up. Reserves Khalil Bryant and Isaac James could also see some more action.
Two x-factors could also crack the line-up in the secondary. The first is redshirt freshman Bryant Fitzgerald who was one of the Hoosiers’ best recruits in the class of 2017 and the other is incoming freshman Juwan Burgess. Burgess is a four-star kid who clocked in at 273rd on ESPN’s top 300 and, get this, had offers from three of the four “playoff” teams from last year. Everyone and their brother wanted this player and Indiana managed to sign him.
Lastly, special team’s has a big hole to fill after Griffin Oakes’s graduation. The sure-footed kicker connected on 16 of 17 field goals a year ago and missed just seven extra points in 154 attempts in his career. Knowing what a weapon Oakes was, Indiana offered a scholarship to Charles Campbell, the fifth ranked kicker in the 2018 class. He will get some good competition in camp from Jared Smolar who redshirted last year but got action in 2016 as a freshman. So yeah, Oakes had a great college career but IU appears to have the pieces to manage his departure.
2018 Schedule
At FIU
- Best Case – FIU won eight games but struggled against top end clubs, losing to UCF, FAU, and their bowl to Temple. 1-0
- Worst Case – Panthers overachieved in Butch Davis’s first year but that roster was filled with seniors. It is a big ask for Butch’s young team to be ready to face a Big Ten squad week one. 1-0
- Prediction – FIU finished 79th in rush defense last year. I hope to see Indiana pound the rock and get their biggest weakness from last year moving in the right direction this year. W, 31-13, 1-0
Virginia
- BC – UVA went to a bowl last year but Indiana doubled them up 34-17 in Charlottesville last year. 2-0
- WC – Much like FIU, Virginia has a ton of new faces this year and is not expected to compete much in the ACC. Indiana survives a tough home opener. 2-0
- P – Both teams have a lot to replace but I get the feeling Indiana is further along in their development. W, 28-21, 2-0
Ball State
- BC – The Cardinals were a train wreck last year going 2-10 and failing to win a MAC game. 3-0
- WC – Outside of the injury bug biting several times during this game, I don’t see Ball State hanging with the Hoosiers. 3-0
- P – Probably IU’s biggest talent gap game on their schedule. Big win. W, 56-10, 3-0
Michigan State
- BC – Spartans won a lot of games last year but a ton of them were close, including knocking off Indiana 17-9. Maybe the Hoosiers return the favor. 4-0
- WC – MSU overachieved a season ago but they get a lot of those pieces back. Undefeated start finally ends. 3-1
- P – Unfortunately, I think Indiana just has too many new faces on defense to knock off what is shaping up to be a very good Sparty scoring threat. L, 31-21, 3-1 (0-1)
At Rutgers
- BC – This was a 41-0 laugher a year ago. 5-0
- WC – The OL continues to give up sacks, rushing game continues to struggle, and the D just has too many new players to recreate last year’s D. All in all it combines to a rough Big Ten season. 3-2
- P – Yes there are new faces but as I pointed out to open the preview, a lot of the new players are intriguing talents and some are experienced grad transfers. W, 35-13, 4-1 (1-1)
At Ohio State
- BC – Even with all the uncertainty swirling around, Ohio State is more talented and the Shoe is a pain to win at. 5-1
- WC – Last year’s 49-21 game turns into an even bigger romp for the Buckeyes. 3-3
- P – Hoosiers keep it close for a half but eventually the more talented team pulls away. L, 42-21, 4-2 (1-2)
Iowa
- BC – Hoosiers get back on track and start receiving some votes. 6-1
- WC – Nothing is working on the defense and the injury bug also returns as several Hoosiers miss games. Nightmare season. 3-4
- P – I hate this timing for Indiana. Teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State often beat you twice in that, they are so physically dominating that you are really worn out the next week. Iowa’s opponent the week before is just Minnesota, a team I’m projecting to be near the bottom of the standings. Iowa escapes Bloomington. L, 21-17, 4-3 (1-3)
Penn State
- BC – Lions jumped all over Indiana a year ago en route to a 45-14 win. Maybe Indiana does a little better at home. 6-2
- WC – Trace McSorley shreds the Hoosier D. 3-5
- P – I just think there is too much of a talent gap to overcome. Hoosiers keep it close for long stretches of the game though. L, 31-17, 4-4 (1-4)
At Minnesota
- BC – Gophers are a wreck on offense. 7-2
- WC – Indiana is a wreck on defense. 3-6
- P – This is often rare to say in relation to Hoosier football but simply put, they are the more talented team and should win this road game. W, 28-21, 5-4 (2-4)
Maryland
- BC – Well I liked Indiana to win this home game even before the storm that has come to College Park. 8-2
- WC – I thought if everything broke Maryland’s way, they had a chance to put up a ton of wins. Safe to say not everything is breaking their way right now, but I always have the BCs and WCs match so if I have Maryland winning this game in their best case, then I must have IU losing it in their worst case. 3-7
- P – Like IU’s roster a little more even before the mess and they are the home team. W, 28-24, 6-4 (3-4)
At Michigan
- BC – Two of the last three have been decided in overtime, IU finally knocks off the Wolverines. 9-2
- WC – Shea Patterson is the real deal, uh-oh. 3-8
- P – And my WC comment is why Michigan’s ceiling is interesting. This team flat-out stunk passing the ball a year ago. If they get that fixed, they’ll be really tough to beat, especially in the Big House. L, 28-21, 6-5 (3-5)
Purdue
- BC – Purdue has just as many new faces to replace on defense. Indiana is heading to a New Year’s Day bowl. 10-2
- WC – Hoosiers’ holes are just too much to manage and the team fails to win a single league game. 3-9
- P – Two rosters with a lot to like but also a lot of turnover. As a result I’m going with the home team in what appears to be a toss-up this far from the game actually being played. W, 31-28, 7-5 (4-5)
Final Notes
Is it risky to pick Indiana to go to a bowl, especially with concerns along the OL and running games, not to mention all the new faces on defense? Maybe a little bit, but I think Allen has done a great job of boosting recruiting and getting some key grad transfers in to fix immediate problems. Not to mention a favorable schedule that features three near-locks in the non-conference, three manageable home league games (Purdue, Maryland, and Iowa), and two favorable road league games (Rutgers and Minnesota) means the wins are there. If Indiana can win five games a year ago with a tougher schedule and a strange coaching situation then a more settled program with Allen in year two and an easier schedule has to make a bowl, right? I would argue the answer is a resounding yes, this team is going to a bowl.
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