The Boilermakers nabbed Jeff Brohm from Western Kentucky to try to turn the ship around and his debut season in 2017 wasn’t just a turn around, it was a smashing success. Won a bowl, won four league games, and knocked off rival Indiana but the ceiling on this team felt even higher. They lost to the Lamar Jackson led Louisville Cardinals by 7, lost at Wisconsin by 8, and lost to Rutgers and Nebraska by a combined 3 points. The hope is that with plenty of returning talent, the Boilers turn some of those narrow losses into wins and improves on their 6-6 regular season record.
The slew of returning players starts with the heart and soul of this team, Elijah Sindelar. He was the starting quarterback in the Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana wins as well as the bowl victory. Sindelar even played a stretch of games the second half of the year with a torn ACL. If worse comes to worse and Sindelar is banged up again, senior David Blough has tons of experience, including being the starter in 2016, to give this position depth. Blough can be an interception machine but really cut down on that last season so he gives Brohm a very reliable second option. What is really impressive though is the depth as Brohm added incoming freshman Jack Plummer to the roster. The four-star recruit had offers from multiple power conference schools as well as group of five powers Boise State and Memphis. It is unlikely Plummer cracks the field this year unless his camp is absolutely insane, but it is really nice to have the quarterback of the future learning the system and getting reps during their redshirt year.
The backfield also returns almost all of its production including Markell Jones and D.J. Knox. These two combined for 203 carries and 1127 yards. As a team though, Purdue produced just 12 rushing touchdowns so while yards were generated, the lack of scoring touch was felt, especially in the red zone with just 10 red zone rushing touchdowns and 27 overall. To put that in context here is how the Big Ten shook out in generating red zone touchdowns overall and via the run:
1. Penn State: 46 total, 27 rushing
2. Ohio State: 45 total, 25 rushing
3. Northwestern: 41 total, 27 rushing
….Wisconsin: 41 total, 19 rushing
5. Iowa: 32 total, 15 rushing
6. Michigan State: 30 total, 14 rushing
7. Indiana: 27 total, 11 rushing
Purdue: 27 total, 10 rushing
9. Michigan: 23 total, 18 rushing
….Minnesota: 23 total, 17 rushing
….Nebraska: 23 total, 12 rushing
12. Maryland: 22 total, 11 rushing
13. Rutgers: 18 total, 15 rushing
14. Illinois: 14 total, 9 rushing (shocking, I know)
So Purdue was tied for 7th overall at scoring inside the 20 yard line but were 13th when trying to score via the rush. Neither number is great but the imbalance is jarring. Finishing drives with six instead of three will be paramount for the Boilermakers progress.
One thing that will help make this unit stronger in tight spaces is a very experienced offensive line. Anchoring things is senior center Kirk Barron who has started all 25 games the last two seasons. Left tackle was split duties last year as Grant Hermanns started the first six before going down with injury. His replacement, Eric Swingler, started the remaining games. Both guys are back so while a pessimist could see a battle at a key position, I see the upside and notice the depth at a key position.
Both guards are also returning. On the left is Shane Evans who has plenty of collegiate experience with 13 starts last season and 18 game appearances earlier in his career at Northern Illinois. On the right is Matt McCann who also started all 13 games last year and had 10 other starts as a freshman. The line is very high on experience, if not as talented as some of the other units in the league.
Rounding things out for the big uglies are key reserves Michael Mendez and Bearooz Yacoobi. Mendez had 11 appearances last year as a sophomore and eight appearances with three starts in 2016. Finally an addition from Brohm’s old stop at Western Kentucky comes in. Dennis Edwards was a C-USA All-Freshman Team member in 2015 and started all 14 games at right guard in 2016 and played in 41 overall at WKU. The grad transfer adds some nice depth to an already experienced line.
So while the line and backfield look to be in solid shape the wide receiving group will be a work in progress. Leading targets Anthony Mahoungou and Gregory Phillips have both moved on, Mahoungou even getting signed to a NFL squad. That leaves Jackson Anthrop as the main man back. As a freshman Anthrop hauled in 47 passes for 423 yards and 5 TDs. Those 47 catches led the team, those 423 yards were third on the team (by one yard) and those 5 TDs were second on the club. All in all Anthrop is the real deal and should build on an amazing freshman season but the rest of the receiving corps is an unknown entity.
So who will be the other targets? Maybe senior Terry Wright who had flashes with 29 catches and 274 yards last year is poised for a jump in production. Perhaps Jared Sparks who had a more traditional freshman season (19 catches, 222 yards) compared to Anthrop’s monster year will continue to grow into his role. Who knows, maybe seniors Jarrett Burgess (11 catches, 130 yards) or Isaac Zico (6 catches, 34 yards) will do major damage this year but like I said pretty unknown after Anthrop.
There is also a good chance Brohm just goes young with the receiving group thanks to some highly sought after recruits. Three star guys Jordan Bonner (8 power five offers), Amad Anderson (9 power five offers), and Kory Taylor (10 power five offers) all have high upside and a pair of four-star recruits come with even more cache. Tyler Hamilton is a redshirt freshman but in the class of 2017 was a four-star kid listed as high as the 30th best receiver. Rondale Moore comes in this year ranked 282nd on the ESPN top 300 and spurned heavyweights Ohio State and Penn State to head to West Lafayette. Obviously it is dicey to go so young with the receiving group but it worked well with Jackson Anthrop so maybe Brohm’s offensive insights are so high that he can make it work with such a young group.
Thankfully the unproven WR corps gets a boost from a pretty solid tight end line up. Brycen Hopkins and Cole Herdman make a great tandem as Hopkins is coming off a productive 25 receptions, 349 yard 2017 and Herdman nabbed 20 for 331 yards. Herdman is a mainstay on the field with at least one catch in 29 straight games. Darius Pittman provides some nice depth for the position.
Despite a bowl winning season and some very nice pieces back, the offense does still have to grow together. The Boilermakers finished just 61st in yards per game last year, 46th in passing per, 83rd in rushing per, and just 91st in scoring per. There’s a lot to like about this offense on paper. Now if the pieces can all come together, the Boilers could really have something brewing. Frankly, the offense will have to step up because the defense is going to have a few issues. They were awesome last year, finishing 24th in scoring, up almost a hundred places from where they finished in 2016 but they lose eight key players from last year’s D.
So who exactly is there? It starts with solid linebacker Markus Bailey who started all 13 a year ago and was second on the team in tackles, racked up 11.0 TFLs, and 7 sacks. Bailey is going to have to be outstanding as one of the groups most hit by the roster turnover was linebacker. Derrick Barnes is the most experienced player back with 12 appearances and two starts last year. Tobias Larry and Cornel Jones also saw the field, primarily on special teams. The other linebackers are all lightly recruited freshman or walk ons.
The secondary also has legit starters surrounded by unproven pieces. The star of this group is senior Jacob Thieneman who started all 13 games last year at safety. He got in on 80 tackles, 52 solo, 5 TFLs, a couple sacks, and two interceptions. Joining him in the back line is junior Navon Mosley who made 12 starts last year. He also had two picks in addition to some nice tackling figures. This safety group is talented, experienced, and smart as both Thieneman and Mosley were Academic All-Big Ten performers last year.
Cornerback is where the secondary begins to break down with really no one back from last year. Senior Kamal Hardy made a start and had eight appearances, senior Antonio Blackmon had 11 reserve appearances, and senior Tim Cason was a former starter in 2016 and had some appearances last year. These three make up the old guard in this position group. Sophomores Simeon Smiley had 13 reserve appearances last year and Brennan Thieneman with 11 reserve appearances are the only underclassmen with experience and that’s really it. Everyone else in the secondary are incoming freshman or walk ons. All the new faces are three star or lower kids but Dedrick Mackey did rack up plenty of offers, including Big Ten power Wisconsin.
If you thought that secondary sounded thin, well, I saved the scariest part of this new look D for last and that is the massive question mark that is the Purdue defensive line. Tackle Lorenzo Neal is the only returning starter with 12 starts last year and four more in 2016 as a freshman. He chipped in 5.5 TFLs and a pair of sacks to go along with two forced fumbles. He is surrounded by…nothing.
The player with probably the most upside is sophomore tackle Anthony Watts who made nine reserve appearances last year and got several power five school offers as a part of the class of 2016. Other maybes on the roster include tackle Keiwan Jones who had three reserve appearances last year before a season-ending injury. The Florida prospect hasn’t really panned out but as a fifth year senior at least he has experience. Finally end Kai Higgins got in 11 games last year as a reserve. The junior had a really nice JUCO season a few years back so maybe this translates to Big Ten action after last year’s adjustment period. After those guys it is all freshman or walk ons and none of the freshman are coming into camp with a lot of recognition from rivals, 247, or ESPN. That’s not to say they can’t pan out. My favorite story is Iowa tight end Dallas Clark who played eight man football in Livermore, Iowa, changed positions to tight end with the Hawkeyes, then exploded in college ball before a productive NFL career. So yeah, unproven can pan out but it is just a lot tougher to preview a team when there are this many unknowns at a position.
2018 Schedule
Northwestern
- Best Case – Yeah Northwestern returns a lot of pieces but they graduated one of the best running backs in program history. You don’t overcome that after one offseason. 1-0
- Worst Case – What a rude way for both of these teams to start. A Thursday night conference opener. Ouch. 0-1
- Prediction – I’m really worried about the Purdue defense having to go against an experienced quarterback like Clayton Thorson. L, 28-20, 0-1 (0-1)
Eastern Michigan
- BC – After making a bowl in 2016, EMU slid backwards going just 5-7 last year. 2-0
- WC – They lost 3 times in overtime and three times in regulation by a grand total of 10 points. They also won at Rutgers last year. Crazier things have happened, you know…but I’ll still take the home club. 1-1
- P – Too much offensive talent back for Purdue to come out of the gate winless, they bounce back against a pesky Eastern Michigan club. W, 35-24, 1-1 (0-1)
Missouri
- BC – Purdue smoked them a year ago, why not do it again this year? 3-0
- WC – Umm, Drew Lock versus that defense. Yikes. 1-2
- P – Over on the podcast, I have Missouri finishing third in the SEC East. I am all in on the Drew Lock experience. L, 42-17, 1-2 (0-1)
Boston College
- BC – Look who is receiving votes after three power five teams taken down in four weeks. 4-0
- WC – A.J. Dillon is one of the best backs in the ACC and he is going against that front seven of Purdue? Uh-oh. 1-3
- P – I’m not terribly high on BC outside of Dillon and some defensive pieces, something you can also catch on the podcast. Purdue gets a nice bounce-back win. W, 28-24, 2-2 (0-1)
At Nebraska
- BC – The first of those narrow defeats from last year is avenged. 5-0
- WC – Nebraska pulled off the victory 25-24 a year ago, needing a fourth quarter rally to make it happen. I think the Huskers are going to be a mess this year so after waking up from a tough opening four weeks, Purdue gets back into the win column. 2-3
- P – I don’t think people realize just how much Mike Riley didn’t care as he got a golden parachute thanks to his friend and then Nebraska AD. This Husker team is bad folks. W, 31-17, 3-2 (1-1)
at Illinois
- BC – Another year, another Lovie Smith debacle. 6-0
- WC – This year’s Illinois team is last year’s Purdue team as the Illini make a surprise bowl. 2-4
- P – Two teams with a lot of holes but Purdue has the big edge in quarterback talent and experience. W, 28-14, 4-2 (2-1)
Ohio State
- BC – I think with more pieces back on defense, you could make a bit of an argument for an upset, but 8 new players is a lot to overcome. 6-1
- WC – Something in the mid 60s allowed by the PU defense. 2-5
- P – As of writing this Urban Meyer is still on paid leave and there is a lot in flux about the Buckeyes’ coaching staff but talent to talent, OSU still has the edge. L, 49-17, 4-3 (2-2)
At Michigan State
- BC – MSU’s margin of error last year was razor-thin with five wins by a single score. They have a nice team, but is it a deadly one like the Dantonio championship ones? Eh, we’ll see. 7-1
- WC – Offense remains in the 80s/90s and the defense comes back to earth after last year results in the type of season we all expected from Purdue last year. 2-6
- P – After such a good season last year it would be easy to jump on the Purdue hype train and say they are Wisconsin’s biggest challenger and that they are poised for a breakout year but they aren’t and league road games will be very hard for this team since they are so dang young on defense. L, 24-10, 4-4 (2-3)
Iowa
- BC – If every Iowa Hawkeye is suspended, does the season actually exist? 8-1
- WC – Hawks still better on paper even with last year’s demoralizing defeat at Kinnick. 2-7
- P – This game is a total toss-up but I’m going with Purdue for a few reasons. First, Iowa’s offense was feast or famine last year and against Purdue it was a big time famine generating just 15 points and 258 yards. The Purdue defense may have a lot of new faces but they have the same staff that put in the brilliant game plan to lock Iowa down. Plus with toss ups, you can go with the home team and feel a little better about things. W, 24-21, 5-4 (3-3)
At Minnesota
- BC – You want to talk about question marks, oh my god look at the Minnesota quarterback situation! 9-1
- WC – Of course the Gophers have a lot of nice pieces other than their mystery man at quarterback. 2-8
- P – Two teams with massive holes but I’m going to go again with the team that at least has a starting quarterback as I look at things here in early August. W, 28-24, 6-4 (4-3)
Wisconsin
- BC – Look, I know UW only won 17-9 last year but the Badgers had 494 yards, almost 300 of it coming on the ground. They just were careless with 3 turnovers. Wisconsin remains a cut above the Boilers. 9-2
- WC – If Bucky finishes those drives with six instead of turning the ball over, this one could get ugly. 2-9
- P – Wisconsin was better than Purdue last year and returns way more of their roster than Purdue does. That doesn’t bode well for PU’s shot in this one. L, 35-7, 6-5 (4-4)
At Indiana
- BC – Well, they didn’t make the title game but they are nationally ranked and heading to a New Year’s bowl! 10-2
- WC – Big step back for Brohm as the defense never captures the magic of last year. 2-10
- P – I like a lot of the parts of this Hoosier team, especially on offense, and the game is in Bloomington. Bitter defeat in the annual Old Oaken Bucket game. L, 31-28, 6-6 (4-5)
Final Notes
There is a lot to like about Purdue on paper. Good QB situation, solid RB depth, very experienced OL. But all those returning pieces still weren’t an explosive offense a year ago and now they are taking a step back at WR. The reason this team was a bowl club a year ago was that defense and it having tons of turnover so that unit will probably back slide quite a few spaces.
The good news is, if the defense can still remain in the top 60 and the offense can move up from 91st in scoring to say, top 60 than this club can remain in bowl contention because the schedule has some wins on it. The question is, will the defense be good enough or the offense be improved enough to take advantage of those winnable dates? That’s why I think the Boilers can make a bowl, but 2018 won’t be the explosion of success fans around the program are hoping for.
Big Ten and Counting 