2018 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Maryland

Maryland’s 4-8 (2-7) 2017 can be summed up by the opening day upset win at Texas.  The game included the high of the sport, scoring a big win, and the low of the sport, injuries.  Quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome was shredding the Texas defense only to go down with a season-ending injury.  Next up was highly touted freshman Kasim Hill.  He wrapped up the Texas game, then picked apart Towson.  It looked like the loss of Pigrome was a speed bump but nothing detrimental to another bowl berth in D.J. Durkin’s young tenure in College Park.  Then during the UCF game, Hill went down with his own season-ending injury.  Oh, also in that Texas game, pass rushing specialist Jesse Aniebonam broke his foot and missed the rest of the year.  These marquee injuries, as well as other nicks along the way, totally tanked the Terps’ hopes.  They started 3-1 before a brutal 1-7 finish that included one of the more humbling things to happen in the Big Ten: a loss to Rutgers.

So it seems pretty clear, for Maryland to improve in 2018 they need to do literally one thing: stay healthy.  That is going to be the major factor, but we should still look at who they have on the depth chart.  Obviously quarterback is the big one.  Max Bortenschlager ended up playing the most last year because of the Hill and Pigrome injuries and he is also back.  There isn’t a real quarterback controversy for the Terps because also in the off season, Matt Canada was brought in as a new offensive coordinator.  His pro-style attack is different enough from the previous scheme that each QB should get plenty of reps to show off their knowledge of the new O.  Hill is the most likely starter considering he was the most sought after recruit of the three and is a pro-style quarterback but don’t discount Pigrome’s ability to make plays with his feet and end up regaining the starting gig.

Along with three names to pencil in at QB on the depth chart, running back is also incredibly deep.  I loved the one-two punch of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III a season ago and, well, both are back.  As the passing game started to suffer a season ago, it became easier to then stop the run so neither put up their 2016 numbers but combined they still racked up nearly 1500 yards and 8 scores.  This two-headed monster is even deeper when you factor in Jake Funk, a red zone bruiser that had 4 TDs on just 27 carries and then adding to the embarrassment of riches, redshirt freshman Anthony McFarland was a consensus four-star recruit when he came to UM.  This group of backs is ridiculously talented, deep, and one of the best corps in the league.

Oh, if you weren’t buying Maryland yet I got some more reasons to: the offensive line.  Gobs of experience in this group as all five starters are back.  Senior center Brendan Moore anchors this line and people have noticed for years.  Not too long ago he was listed as the top NFL prospect for all the underclassmen centers.  Coming into this year he is on the Remington watch list.  To Moore’s left last year was Sean Christie.  He started all 12 games and to the right of Moore is Terrance Davis.  He started the final nine games as a freshman in 2016 and then started all 12 last year.  Davis is a rockstar on the field and classroom and was a 2017 Academic All-Big Ten member.

To the outside is a pair of solid tackles in Derwin Gray and Damian Prince.  Gray is on the left side and was an All-Big Ten honorable mention a season ago.  Prince was a beast last year on the right side allowing just eight QB pressures.  Gray and Prince are both seniors so not only do they have the experience of starting games a year ago, they have a ton of experience in general.  Additional depth comes from Marcus Minor, a 2017 four-star prospect who appeared in nine games with a start last year, Ellis McKennie who has 19 game appearances as a reserve through two seasons, and incoming four-star stud Jaelyn Duncan, who came in at 69th on ESPN’s top 300 list.  All three guys could challenge the weakest starter a year ago (Christie) for a starting gig but any way you slice it, this is one extremely experienced line.  Not the best in talent within the league, but one of the most experienced and that could take Maryland a long, long way.

Between the line, the running backs, and plenty of options for quarterback, the offense should be a reliable outfit.  To make it a lethal one and maybe push Maryland up the standings, the receiving corps needs to come together.  Outstanding talent DJ Moore is now getting paid for said talent so the Terps will look to Taivon Jacobs to build on last year’s solid 47 receptions, 553 yards, and 5 TDs.  The number one target is set but the question is who Maryland will pair with Jacobs.

One potential option would be Jahrvis Davenport.  The senior made one start last year but appeared in all 12 and was third on the team with 13 receptions.  Junior DJ Turner is another possibility after appearing in all 12 games last year as a reserve wideout.  If you care about such things, Turner had a fantastic spring game and has given interviews saying he is poised for a breakout season.  Former four-star recruit Tahj Capehart got a few reps as a true freshman last year but suffered an ACL in April.  He seems like a long shot to even play this year, let alone step up and be the secondary target.  Hopefully he can redshirt this season, get healthy, then have three years to enjoy his experience at Maryland.

With the returning pieces being a little dicey, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see this staff go with a youngster to pair with Jacobs.  UM has a ton of three-star kids who could emerge but also has two four-star guys worth a look.  Sean Nelson appeared in a single game last year before taking a redshirt so he will have the benefit of two whole camps to impress coach Durkin.  The other is incoming freshman Darryl Jones, who was ranked as the 5th best prospect from loaded Virginia.  I don’t think it would surprise anyone to see these two at least get a crack, especially Jones who, with the new NCAA rule, can play four games before taking a redshirt.

As for the tight end position, well, it has largely been ignored because of Maryland’s previous scheme but Matt Canada will feature it much more in his pro-style attack.  Because of the unit not really needing much attention until now, there aren’t any highly ranked recruits to highlight or a returning player with sexy stats but Avery Edwards seems like the go-to starter.  He appeared in 11 games last year.

In addition to staying healthy, any improvement for the Maryland football team will also come from a defense showing at least marginal improvement.  They finished dead last in the league a year ago with 37.1 points allowed per game and were 84th overall in total defense.  It is hard to turn things around immediately but even marginal improvement to say, top 70 could be enough to return Maryland to a bowl.

To help get that marginal improvement, UM gladly welcomes back Jesse Aniebonam to instantly upgrade the defensive line.  The disruptive Aniebonam led the team in TFLs (14) and sacks (9) in 2016 before breaking his foot last year against Texas.  The rest of the DL will be a work in progress.  Returning players like Bryce Brand, Keiron Howard, Brett Kulka, Adam McLean, Oluwaseun Oluwatimi, Oseh Saine, and Mbi Tanyi all have experience as reserves but little evidence they can be key starters.

The one advantage of having basically no key contributor back is there is a great opportunity for a new face to shine and that is where transfer Byron Cowart comes in.  Cowart saw time as a true freshman and sophomore at Auburn but departed following his second season for junior college and will have two seasons of eligibility at Maryland.  While his career hasn’t gone as expected yet, it is worth noting that Cowart was the number one prospect in the class of 2015 and went to Auburn over Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, seemingly half the Big Ten, and even Georgia Southern.  Hey, can’t blame the little school for at least offering a scholarship.  Why wouldn’t you?

Other new players that are less likely to see time than the prized transfer but are intriguing are Cam Spence, Breyon Gaddy, and Austin Fontaine.  Spence and Gaddy are both redshirt freshman but in the class of 2017 they were four-star recruits by most services.  Fontaine is an incoming freshman from the football factory DeMatha and was a four-star kid listed in ESPN’s top 300 (204th).  He turned down Clemson, Georgia, and seven Big Ten teams to sign with his home state club.

The ends look set with Aniebonam and Cowart so the question for the staff is who become the tackles.  With no returning go-to guy it will be an easy camp for the staff.  Just pick the two who play the best.  There won’t be any hard feelings for a former starter losing his job because, well, none of these guys are returning starters.

Behind the DL there are some huge shoes to fill after Jermaine Carter Jr headed off to the NFL.  This position group is young, too.  With 16 LBs listed on the roster, eight of them are freshman and of those eight, seven are true freshman.  As a result a lot of hope lies with grad transfer Tre Watson to bridge the gap.  That name should sound familiar, after all he was at Illinois and in 2016 was an All-Big Ten honorable mention.  Last year he started seven games, appeared in two others but missed the other three with injury.

Inside linebacker Isaiah Davis is also an asset for this thin LB group.  He played in all 12 games last year with nine starts.  He ended up finishing third on the team with 70 tackles.  Frankly, that does it for returning players.  Everyone else on the roster has either limited experience as a rotational or special teams player, is a freshman (all are three-star guys), or hasn’t even seen the field at all in their careers.  One potential player from this group is redshirt freshman Ayinde Eley.  He was a four-star prospect on some boards and six other Big Ten teams wanted him including top dogs Ohio State and Wisconsin.  As the staff desperately searches for a third linebacker to play with Watson and Davis, Eley has as good a shot as anyone else to emerge.

For as many holes as the line backing group has, fortunately for Maryland’s defense, the secondary is the exact opposite and is overflowing with players.  The star is Antoine Brooks, Jr who is coming off a brilliant sophomore season that saw him become an All-Big Ten honorable mention after starting 11 games and appearing in all 12.  He led the league in TFLs (9.5) for a defensive back and the hard-hitting safety racked up a team leading 53 solo tackles last year.

Along with Brooks, Darnell Savage, Jr looks to build on a great season at safety.  Savage was also an All-Big Ten honorable mention and started all 12 games.  He posted a team-best eight pass breakups and picked off three balls.  Adding depth to the back end is Qwuantrezz Knight who appeared in all 12 games as a reserve safety a season ago.  Clearly for this club, safety is set.  As for the rest of the secondary, there is a ton to chose from.  Ravon Davis is a strong candidate to grab a starting job after appearing in all 12 games, making four starts at corner a year ago.  Tino Ellis is another qualified candidate after appearing in all 12 games and made six starts at CB a season ago.  Another experienced option is Antwaine Richardson who made three starts and appeared in nine games in 2017.

As for dudes who did not see the field yet in their Maryland careers, there are some prime choices to make an impact this year.  The first to mention is Marcus Lewis, who sat out last year due to NCAA transfer rules.  He saw playing time as a true freshman in 2015 with Florida State and increased his workload in 2016.  The former four-star prospect could be an instant starter at corner since neither Davis, Ellis, or Richardson completely blew people away last year.  Another transfer who is allowed to play after sitting out last year is Rayshad Lewis, who came over from Utah State.  He played in all 12 games and made seven starts as a true freshman for the Aggies and was second on the team in receptions and yards.  If this is confusing, welcome to my world.  Maryland lists Lewis as a defensive back / wide receiver.  Ray Lewis’s son probably has a better chance of cracking the field as a wide out but if tackling ability is a trait that can be passed down, then maybe they should play him on defense.

Finally a pair of four-star recruits round out a deep secondary.  Deon Jones redshirted last year and was ranked by ESPN as the 155th best prospect in last year’s class.  He is joined with the 247th best player in this class, Ken Montgomery.  Montgomery fielded offers from a ton of schools, spanning Washington State in the northwest to Alabama in the southeast but picked UM over all of them.

The last tidbit to know about Maryland as the 2018 season approaches is a huge unknown in the kicking game.  Mike Shinsky, the only returning kicker, has exactly one career attempt.  As a result of how thin this position is, Joseph Petrino was signed to the incoming freshman class.  Petrino’s only other offer was Army.  My previews tend to be way too long so I try to avoid special teams unless it appears to be really strong and could steal some games or really weak and could cost some games.  With the question marks at kicking, UM’s special teams unit feels like it is in the later group.

2018 Schedule

Texas (Game is at FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland)

• Best Case – Terps dropped 51 on ’em a year ago.  Let’s do it again!  1-0
• Worst Case – After having half a hundred hung on them, I certainly hope the Longhorns aren’t looking past the Terps this year.  0-1
• Prediction – Fun fact about Tom Herman, his teams get worse.  In 2015, his first season as a head coach, he went 13-1 with what was mostly still Kevin Sumlin’s Houston team.  In 2016, 9-3.  Last year 7-6.  Dude feels like all hype and no substance.  Durkin feels like the real deal.  Maryland pulls off the victory yet again.  W, 42-38, 1-0

At Bowling Green

• BC – These aren’t the old Dino Babers era Falcons…they went just 2-10 last year.  2-0
• WC – Strange for a true road trip to a MAC school.  Should still go as expected.  1-1
• P – This team lost to a FCS team a season ago and was decimated by Northwestern, 49-7.  The program is just a mess under Mike Jinks.  W, 52-10, 2-0

Temple

• BC – Temple struggled against good teams a season ago dropping lopsided affairs to Notre Dame, USF, and UCF.  3-0
• WC – Owls have one of the better O-lines in the AAC so maybe they get the ground game going, but I’m not overly optimistic for Temple pulling an upset.  2-1
• P – Owls are expected to make another bowl and be a tough out in the AAC east but I think Maryland is going to make a bowl and be a tough out in the Big Ten east.  Just too much talent gap between these two programs right now.  W, 28-13, 3-0

Minnesota

• BC – Thanks to dispatching Texas and a AAC team, Maryland gets ranked following a victory over the Gophers.  4-0
• WC – The furthest west UM is the one enjoying a breakout season and Maryland’s injury bug come back a month into the year.  2-2
• P – Total toss up in my opinion between these two schools.  Normally that means I go with the home team but the Gopher defense looks really strong.  I think that Minnesota D combined with Rodney Jones punishing kind of a weak on paper front seven means Goldy steals a road game.  L, 21-17, 3-1 (0-1)

at Michigan

• BC – Is everyone 100% sure that Harbaugh is a good coach?  5-0
• WC – Shae Patterson has Michigan’s offense humming.  2-3
• P – The middle UM still has an edge in talent over Maryland.  Combine that with a game in the Big House and you see where I am going.  L, 28-17, 3-2 (0-2)

Rutgers

• BC – Umm, guys, Maryland is a top 15 team.  6-0
• WC – Injuries combined with a bad front seven results in a lost season for Maryland.  Even Rutgers knocks off the Terps en route to a bowl.  2-4
• P – Nothing like a home game against these Knights to get your season back on track.  W, 28-14, 4-2 (1-2)

at Iowa

• BC – Look, if everything breaks UM’s way, which is what the best case is, they can win a ton of games, they really can.  7-0
• WC – On the flip side, special teams, LB depth, health, new offense, and, well, you could see things breaking the wrong way.  2-5
• P – Holy crap, I don’t know what to do.  Maryland is a scary, scary offensive team on paper and Iowa will be a little new-look because of some key departures on D.  I think I’m leaning Iowa for a couple of sound reasons.  First, normally mobile quarterbacks give Iowa fits and Maryland is changing to a more traditional pro-style attack.  That seems to be more in line with Iowa’s defensive wheelhouse.  Second, the game is in Iowa City.  When something is a total toss up, I usually go with the home club.  L, 24-21, 4-3 (1-3)

Illinois

• BC – Hmm, let’s look at the top-ten.  Alabama, Clemson, ah yes, all the usual faces, but, um, what?  Who is Murray-land?  8-0
• WC – Illinois is having a breakthrough season and Maryland is cannon fodder in a totally lost season.  2-6
• P – Edge in QB play (among other areas) push Maryland one step closer to a bowl berth.  W, 28-21, 5-3 (2-3)

Michigan State

• BC – As of writing this, Urban Meyer is on administrative leave, maybe this is the opening for a total shock to the system and someone wins the east that no one expected and thanks to a top 15 offensive attack, the Terps are rising to the occasion and taking the division by storm.  9-0
• WC – Or, you know, Dantonio does Dantonio things and it is Michigan State taking the division by storm.  2-7
• P – Michigan State won 10 games a year ago.  How?  Single score wins over Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, and Penn State.  Even against banged up Maryland they only won 17-7.  Sparty has a great defense but I’m still not as sold on them as I probably should be so I see this as a great opportunity for Maryland.  It is at home, the OL is experienced, the backfield is great, and the defense should be somewhat improved.  I’m talking myself into the Terps winning here.  Oh, it also helps that it is the week before the Ohio State game so MSU could be doing the old look-past.  W, 20-17, 6-3 (3-3)

at Indiana

• BC – Scott Van Pelt is doing his show from Durkin’s house by this point.  10-0
• WC – Thanks to the improvement in recruiting, Durkin is safe but he is putting the pressure on himself for year four.  2-8
• P – Complete toss-up.  I don’t know what to make of this one as the teams are similar because Indiana also appears to be good offensively but has some questions at other positions.  I’ll go with the home team because that’s what I do when I don’t know what to do.  L, 28-24, 6-4 (3-4)

Ohio State

• BC – Remember Luke Fickell’s season at Ohio State?  11-0
• WC – Of course, let’s just assume that Urban Meyer comes back and OSU lives up to the hype, 2-9
• P – It will not be a repeat of last year’s 62-14 debacle, but still too much separation between these clubs.  L, 38-17, 6-5 (3-5)

At Penn State

• BC – Remember when Iowa shocked the league and went 12-0?  It sometimes happens when all the stars align.  12-0
• WC – A bumpy transition with Matt Canada and all the new faces but the team battles hard all the way until the end and picks up some moral victories to feel better about 2019.  2-10
• P – Lions are a strange team to predict with several high profile departures, none more looming than Saquon Barkley, but overall I think the Lions are poised for another strong season, especially when they get some home cooking against still-building programs.  L, 31-21, 6-6 (3-6)

Final Notes

As you can tell, there are some aspects of Maryland I absolutely love as I have them running the tables in a best case scenario.  Of course that will take a whole bunch of luck, most notably with new players stepping up along both lines and at linebacker.  As a result, Maryland will probably lose a game or two they shouldn’t (i.e. Minnesota) and then win a game or two they shouldn’t (i.e. Michigan State) en route to a bowl.  I picked this club to win six games but the Minnesota, Indiana, and Iowa games are all manageable so whether it is 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, maybe even better, lock the Terps into a bowl because there is too much talent on paper for this team not to compete…….unless of course they all get hurt again.