After building Western Michigan into a MAC powerhouse and taking them to a Cotton Bowl, P.J. Fleck headed to Minnesota last year. This was a huge name hire for the Gophers. This guy was on everyone’s next-best list. Did this make Minnesota a destination job? Does Fleck think he needs power conference experience before a jump to a blue blood or the NFL? Does the midwesterner just love Big Ten football and wanted a good fit to jump into the league? Who knows, but the ride will be an exciting one.
2017 started like Fleck was going to take the league by storm. They were 3-0 and even won at a power conference school. Yeah it was Oregon State, but they crushed them. Unfortunately Minnesota’s next three games were all tough losses by an average margin of just eight points. They knocked off Illinois to get back above .500 but then dropped four of the next five. Worse, the last two games were shutout defeats, the first time UM had been shutout in back-to-back games since 1950. The Wisconsin shutout was the first time UW had blanked the Gophers since 1982. By every objective measure, Minnesota got worse as the season went on.
While this is not what anyone expected with the highly praised Fleck, it wasn’t impossible in hind sight. Minnesota struggled to pass the ball well last year and wasn’t exactly a rushing power either en route to averaging just 22.1 points per game, 110th in the nation. Yes the shutouts didn’t help that number but if you take them out, UM’s points per game only goes up to 26.5 points per game which would have been 80th nationally so even with trying to polish the number as best as possible, UM still had a below average offense. A lot of this can be traced to a rough season at converting third downs. UM converted just 33.5% of their third downs, 110th nationally.
As for other areas on the field, the defense was dependable, finishing 38th in scoring but special teams was an absolute mess. Although a respectable 59th in average kickoff returns, the Gophers were 118th nationally in punt return average, were a shaky kicking unit, and ultimately finished just 53rd in special teams efficiency last year. There is no nice way to say it but in his first year at the helm in Minnesota, the Gophers were routinely out played, out coached, and lacked talent in two phases of the game. With that in mind 5-7 (2-7) almost sounds like a resounding success but Fleck wasn’t hired for 5-7 seasons. What can this team do to improve and can that happen this season?
The first thing Minnesota has to do to remain competitive is maintain an upper half defense. They return several pieces that can help them achieve this. Possibly the most important piece is junior defensive end / linebacker / pass rusher Carter Coughlin. Coughlin is coming off a fantastic sophomore season that saw him earn All-Big Ten Honorable Mention Honors after leading the Gophers in sacks (6.5) and TFLs (11.5). Behind Coughlin is Thomas Barber, an outstanding junior linebacker. As a sophomore Barber led the team in tackles with 115 (76 solo), forced three and recovered two fumbles, and was honored with Third Team All-Big Ten. He starts 2018 on the Butkus watch list. Finally several key players from the secondary are back. Why does that matter? Well Minnesota finished 11th in passing yards allowed per game. So, yeah, UM’s pass D might be pretty good. Let’s zoom in on that group.
Before we even get to the major contributors from last year, it is worth noting that outstanding safety Antoine Winfield Jr will be back in action after missing most of last season with injury. Even worse news for the rest of the league, he was granted a medical hardship waiver and will have all three years of eligibility left if he wants them. Along with Winfield the defensive back group will also enjoy the talents of seniors Jacob Huff who racked up 65 tackles (47 solo) and 3 INTs and Antonio Shenault who brought down 64 opponents (44 solo) and defended four passes. These vets are joined with Kiondre Thomas who started six games as a freshman. Look for the sophomore to relish his expanded role.
Two other players caught my eye. One is Chris Williamson who can now play this season after transferring from Florida. The kid was a highly prized three-star recruit and had to go against some incredible athletes in his two seasons in Gainesville. The other is incoming freshman Benny Sapp III. Astute Iowa fans will remember his dad. Sapp’s time at Iowa didn’t end well with some legal issues and transferring to Northern Iowa but Sapp was a fun guy to watch at Kinnick and really turned his life around after leaving Iowa City, even enjoying nearly a decade in the NFL. Welcome to the Big Ten, Benny Sapp III. I’m sure he will do fine considering the three-star prospect had offers from Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State among others.
In front of this solid secondary is a linebacking group clearly anchored by Thomas Barber. While Barber is one of the best linebackers in the conference, the rest of the group will be a work in progress. Let’s assumer Coughlin is more a DE and specialized pass rusher than linebacker these days and only look at guys who will play full time at the position. There are some intriguing, albeit mostly unproven, pieces back from last year.
First up is Kamal Martin. He is the most experienced player with 25 game appearances as a freshman and sophomore. The junior looks to build on his 42 tackle, 6.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recovery season a year ago. Blake Cashman is a senior and has 38 games under his belt but it has been on special teams and a part of the LB rotation, not a starter. Still Cashman has shown flashes for an expanded role, for instance he led the team with 7.5 sacks in 2016. Julian Huff, another senior, also has a lot of game experience (38 games) but just two starts over the last three years. Martin, Cashman, and Huff are then joined with a grocery list of three-star recruits to round out the linebacking group. Barber is the real deal and can easily carry any unit. The trio of upperclassmen high on appearances but low on starts should make for a reliable unit but I am worried about experienced depth. An injury or two along the way could really impact the linebacking situation at Minnesota.
The biggest hurdle to clear for Minnesota to maintain an upper-half in the nation defense will be to solve their defensive line. The first thing to keep in mind is Coughlin’s role. He is too undersized to be a full time DE. That means there is going to be a bit of a funky rotation to start with. On more traditional downs, Coughlin will probably slide back a few yards and be standing up, thus impacting the linebacking rotation and on passing downs, he will be a pass rushing specialist, therefore impacting the DL rotation. That is awesome flexibility for Fleck and his staff but makes previewing the team as a writer, kind of a nightmare. Like we did for the LB preview, let’s just kind of ignore Coughlin and talk about the dudes that are full time down lineman.
The second thing to remember is that UM graduated three key seniors off this line, including four-year starter Steven Richardson. While this unit has some interesting players talent-wise, they will be searching for cohesion as they are a little thin on the experience side of things. With that said, three players are back who were featured in the rotation last year. Tackle Gary Moore was in all 12 games with five starts. The redshirt senior has seen his playing time expand each year on campus so coming off his junior year, it stands to reason Moore will be in the mix for a starting job, if not at least a fixture in the rotation. End Winston DeLattiboudere also got into all 12 games with six starts a year ago. He hasn’t missed a game in his two year career so far and has 11 total starts. Like Moore, DeLattiboudere may not win the starting gig but he will for sure get into the rotation. The final player, Nate Umlor, played in 11 games with seven starts as a freshman last year. He is a versatile player going from end last year to tackle in camp this season. Like the previous two guys he may not have his starting job guaranteed, but you will see him on that line plenty of times as a part of the rotation.
So those are the folks with experience but as you could tell, none of them are locks to be starters. This is where the cohesion factor comes into play because guys who could get starting gigs don’t have experience in a Gopher uniform. One of those players is a former four-star recruit, who played at kind of a good program: O.J. Smith. Yes the Alabama transfer is finally set to go after sitting out per NCAA rules in 2017. While coming from less prestigious a program, Royal Silver was a complete wrecking ball in junior college and earned First Team All-ICCAC honors last year.
Perhaps I am dead wrong and in fact the line will be dominated by young pups. Redshirt freshman Esezi Otomewo has been talked up about as much as possible by this coaching staff. Four-star recruit Alex Reigelsperger was an early enrollee, maybe the extra time spent with this staff will mean he makes an impact even as a true freshman. Maybe the bevy of three-star kids that Fleck has gotten to sign (damn, he can really recruit) will turn out to be what ties this line together. I guess the question for this staff is do you go with the experienced guys who may not have as high a ceiling talent-wise, or do you go with the transfers, or do you go super young? Each answer has some pros and cons but the bottom line is the upside is there for Minnesota along the DL, but how all the pieces fit just isn’t as clear as it was a year ago.
Thanks to this deep dive into the defense I think it is really clear that the Gophers will be rock-solid on the back end, have a superstar at linebacker, and while not totally clear how the rotation will shake out, plenty of pieces to work with on the line. This means I fully expect UM to remain one of the better pass defenses in the country and a top 50 defense overall. The problem is matching last year’s defense won’t mean all that much improvement on the 5-7 mark if the offense can’t get their act together, which means it is now time to play everyone’s favorite game show, “Who is Minnesota’s Quarterback?”
There is no way to beat around the bush and shine up Minnesota any more. I mean, I really tried, that’s why I started with their defense. The fact is Minnesota’s quarterback situation is really, really bad. It is clearly worse than Rutgers’s and I think it might even be worse than Illinois’s. So how did they get into this mess? Like most teams when there is a shortage of players at a position it is a nasty combo of player departures and bad luck.
The players departing are Conor Rhoda (graduation) and Demry Croft (transferring). While neither set the world on fire last year it does mean Minnesota’s QB depth chart has attempted exactly zero passes in college. While Rhoda’s graduation was expected, losing Croft stings a bit. He was only a freshman and was a danger with his feet, gashing Nebraska for 183 yards on 10 carries last year. His development could have been interesting and at the very least this year he would have provided a modicum of experience.
The bad luck comes from, not just Croft’s transfer, but the truly bizarre experience of Vic Viramontes. Viramontes was a prized three-star quarterback recruit in the class of 2016. He signed with Cal over several Pac 12 and Big Ten programs. Then he transferred to junior college. After a season of JUCO, where he became the top-ranked JUCO dual-threat quarterback, he signed with Minnesota. Once in the Minnesota camp he fell behind other QBs and then had a bunch of turnovers in the spring game so it seemed highly unlikely he would ever play quarterback so he transferred back to junior college to play linebacker. It was and remains a strange journey for Viramontes but at the end of the day it means Minnesota remains very unproven at quarterback but also extremely thin as Viramontes would have been an extra body to have on the depth chart.
Okay, that was a lot of information about guys not playing quarterback at Minnesota, so who the hell is there? The most likely starter is redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan. Morgan was added to the recruiting class after Fleck was hired so obviously the new staff saw something they liked in the kid. His prep stats are undeniably impressive and was one of the best high school players in all of Kentucky en route to a three-star ranking.
If Morgan doesn’t get the job, then next in line might be Zack Annexstad. Annexstad played for powerhouse IMG Academy but was never a heralded recruit. Eventually he did get offers from four FBS schools, most notably Cincinnati in the American and the Big Ten’s own Illinois, but Annexstad chose to remain as a walk-on with the Gophers.
If Morgan and Annexstad don’t pan out this year, well then things get really interesting. Two long shots for playing time, Jon Santaga and Samuel Pickerign, are redshirt freshmen and tight end Seth Green could see time. You read that right, tight end Seth Green. Green was a quarterback on the roster last year but his lack of development in reading plays and passing combined with freakish athleticism meant that Green would be much more useful to this football team at a different position. So there you have it folks, two seemingly real quarterbacks, two clipboard guys, and a tight end with none of them having thrown a pass in college. To call this quarterback situation a mess feels like an understatement but it is who the Gophers will have to go into 2018 with, like it or not.
Quarterback isn’t the only position that is on the thin side for the Gopher attack. The running back situation also had some bad luck as it is already been hit by the injury bug. The bug stung Shannon Brooks who had a very nice debut in 2015, a solid 2016, and an injury plagued 2017. In winter he sustained the dreaded non-contact leg injury and has already been ruled out for 2018 (possibly, more about that later). The Gophers were already going to call on Rodney Smith early and often but without Brooks, Smith will have to lead a very inexperienced group of guys.
So who is this Rodney Smith cat? Just a really, really good running back. The senior is a workhorse with 240 and 229 carries the last two years respectfully. He racked up 1158 yards in 2016 and an impressive 977 a season ago considering he was the only dependable thing about the offense. He also has some good hands, catching 40 passes the last two seasons.
Obviously football is too grinding to have a stable of exactly one back so without Brooks, who will provide the two in a one-two punch running game led by Smith? That is the problem with this group on paper right now. Redshirt junior Jonathan Femi-Cole has been in college ball the longest but has just nine career carries. Mohamed Ibrahim and Dominik London are both redshirt freshman so they have been in the system as long as Fleck has been there but obviously have yet to play a single down in college football. It is worth noting that in the spring Ibrahim did get quite a few second team reps so perhaps the coaching staff is leaning towards him.
Behind those three are some incoming freshman. Two of which come with some pedigree as three-star recruits. Nolan Edmonds had a great prep career in Georgia and was ranked as high as the 28th best running back in the class of 2018. Bryce Williams capped off a solid high school career last season in Florida and was ranked as the 53rd best player in Florida. Considering the talent that comes from there, top 60 still sounds pretty good to me. Perhaps one of these guys will steal the spotlight in camp and get to have some reps after Smith. One thing to note is Fleck has been pretty open about using the new NCAA four game redshirt rules to his advantage. Maybe he will go as far as giving Edmonds four games, Williams four games, and even Brooks four games before redshirting each of them. It is certainly something to keep an eye on as the youngster Fleck is probably more open to experimenting with the new rule than, say, a Kirk Ferentz-type coach.
Thankfully after some doom and gloom at QB and some concern at RB depth, we get to what Minnesota should have as something to build around: wide receivers and tight ends. For those of you that don’t know, Fleck was an outstanding college wide out, played in the NFL, and coached the position before becoming a head coach. These groups will be anchored by Tyler Johnson who is coming off a 35 catch, 677 yard, and 7 TD breakout sophomore season. Poised to match Johnson’s feat is Demetrius Douglas. Catching 11 balls for 83 yards as a true freshman isn’t half bad. Factor in he did it in three games before missing the final nine with injury and you can see the potential there. Finally Phillip Howard got seven starts in 11 games last year and nabbed 11 balls. Probably not a go-to guy for this team but Howard should see time in the rotation and probably be featured in the slot when he does get out there.
There are some other receiving targets to look out for that haven’t gotten onto the field yet as well. Chris Autman-Bell was a three-star kid and redshirted last year, giving him two full camps to be coached up by Fleck. Eastern Illinois transfer Paul Gossage was very productive in FCS, maybe he steps up. There are also two three-star true freshman coming in this year as well as four-star recruit Rashod Bateman. There are even more guys who are listed on the roster as the WR group is deep, deep, deep.
As for the other guys catching passes but with a bit more muscle on them, this is another deep group. The TE corps has a lot of redshirt players with experience playing but lack the sexy stats making them worth mentioning here since this post is quickly turning into War and Peace, but they do have two intriguing pieces that I do want to name drop. The first is former quarterback but an athletic freak, Seth Green. They also have Brevyn Spann-Ford coming to school this year. The true freshman was Minnesota’s Mr. Football and got offers from several power league teams, oddly they were all from the Big 12. While the rotation isn’t as clear as it is for WR, this staff has a ton of players to chose from and each of them appear to have very high ceilings so expect UM to be well stocked at TE this fall.
This leaves just one group left to look at, the big uglies up front. While not an elite unit, they do have a nice mix of young guys to learn from some vets. One of those vets is LT Donnell Greene. Since coming as a JUCO player with three years of eligibility left, Greene has played in 25 games with 19 of them starts. The guy is an anchor for this line and a reliable blindside protector for the Gophers. Just inside Greene should be LG Connor Olson. Olson started all 12 games a season ago as a redshirt freshman, playing both left guard and center spots due to injury. Back at center will be Jared Weyler who started six games there a year ago before said injury. The right side of the line is a little less set.
Sam Schlueter started the final six games last year at right tackle but there is a ton of competition at both RT and RG. There is a mix of upperclassmen with limited experience and a ton of fresh faces. Most notable of these new guys are RS-freshman Blaise Andries, who was a mix of four and three-star rankings based on the service you look at, consensus four-star true freshman Curtis Dunlap Jr, and a mountain of a man in Daniel Faalele who is 6’9″ 400 lbs as a true freshman. Also worth noting is JUCO addition Jason Dickson, Schlueter’s biggest competition at that RT position right now.
Lastly it is worth noting that despite an awful year on special teams last season, returning kicker Emmit Carpenter was fantastic in 2016. Kickers can run hot and cold so if he regains his 2016 footing (ba-da-ching) the Gopher special teams will improve dramatically. Considering that UM should regress, or in this case progress, to the mean, expect Minnesota to improve at least a little in the third phase.
2018 Schedule
New Mexico State
- Best Case – NMSU was one of the best stories last year making (and then winning) their first bowl since 1960. Still, they were a 7-6 Sun Belt team. 1-0
- Worst Case – Great story or not, UM is superior to NMSU. 1-0
- Prediction – Aggies were 63rd in the nation last year against the rush. Rodney Smith racks up the yards. W, 35-10, 1-0
Fresno State
- BC – Despite wining 10 games a year ago, Fresno State was not competitive in two road trips to power-five schools. 2-0
- WC – Those locations were Tuscaloosa and Seattle. Minnesota isn’t either program and Fresno returns their qb, leading receiver, and leading rusher. 1-1
- P – Big time upset watch in this one, but I’m going to give the edge to the home team because of the Big Ten talent on the roster, #HomerAlert. W, 28-24, 2-0
Miami (OH)
- BC – The RedHawks were 5-7 last year with their wins being four MAC teams and a FCS club. 3-0
- WC – Hard to see the Gophers dropping this game at home, especially if Fresno State upsets them a week earlier. 2-1
- P – Another below average rush defense (69th last year) lets this OL and Smith feast. W, 38-7, 3-0
At Maryland
- BC – The oft injured Terps enter league play banged up again. 4-0
- WC – Assuming one (or both) of the Maryland QBs who were lost to season-ending injuries last year stays healthy, big edge in QB play for the eastern-most UM. 2-2
- P – Game feels like a total toss up. I’m going with the dependable Gopher defense to steal a road win. W, 21-17, 4-0 (1-0)
Iowa
- BC – Iowa has a ton of shoes to fill, especially at linebacker. The improved Gopher offensive attack inches UM closer to a bowl. 5-0
- WC – Iowa is better along both lines and dominates the line of scrimmage in a good, old-fashioned Big Ten game. 2-3
- P – In addition to being better along the OL and DL, Iowa’s secondary is every bit as good as Minnesota’s, if not better. This is good news for Iowa fans as Minnesota has so many issues at quarterback right now. L, 17-10, 4-1 (1-1)
At Ohio State
- BC – That bowl berth will have to wait a week as the Gophers come up short in the Shoe. 5-1
- WC – Many a good teams have had their seasons ruined by awful QB play. Minnesota is joining that list. 2-4
- P – There isn’t a single aspect of football that the Gophers will be better in than the Buckeyes this year. L, 42-6, 4-2 (1-2)
At Nebraska
- BC – And there it is folks, bowling time! 6-1
- WC – Nebraska turns out to be the team that has improved and is heading to a bowl. 2-5
- P – Minnesota dominated Nebraska a year ago and outside of quarterback, looks to be a half-way decent club. That doesn’t bode well for the rebuilding Huskers. W, 35-20, 5-2 (2-2)
Indiana
- BC – Look who is receiving votes in the polls…7-1
- WC – Hoosiers return a ton on offense and is having one of their best years in a long, long time. 2-6
- P – I’m bullish on the Hoosiers for a bevy of reasons and with the concerns I have about the Gopher QB and some depth, I’ll take the road team. L, 28-21, 5-3 (2-3)
At Illinois
- BC – Um, Minnesota is ranked everybody. 8-1
- WC – Flip the script, Illinois is the team enjoying a breakthrough year and they drop the struggling Gophers. 2-7
- P – I picked Illinois when I did their preview and I’m really regretting it already. I think these teams are fairly even and the Illini are the home team so I usually tilt things in the favor of the home club but man, picking Lovie Smith still feels really, really dumb. L, 21-17, 5-4 (2-4)
Purdue
- BC – Um, are the Gophers going to win the division?! 9-1
- WC – Purdue won a bowl last year and has a lot of pieces to love. Uh-oh. 2-8
- P – I think to get to a bowl Minnesota has to find a way to knock off Illinois or Purdue. Neither will be easy and thanks to Elijah Sindelar’s growth as the Purdue quarterback, I’m going against the Gophers but a bowl is do-able with some help. L, 28-24, 5-5 (2-5)
Northwestern
- BC – Um, are the Gophers going to the “playoffs”?!?! 10-1
- WC – Sometimes being as young as Minnesota is means that a few eggs need to be broken for the omelette of the future. 2-9
- P – Cats have the edge on defense, at quarterback, and possibly coaching too. Even without Justin Jackson, I like the folks in purple. L, 27-21, 5-6 (2-6)
At Wisconsin
- BC – In an all time epic game with each team in the top 10, Minnesota’s magical run comes to an end but an outstanding bowl awaits them. 10-2
- WC – Badgers go undefeated….again. 2-10
- P – Ditto what I said about Northwestern but replace the Justin Jackson part because UW still has Jonathan Taylor. L, 31-7, 5-7 (2-7)
Final Notes
There is a lot to like about Minnesota this year. I have them going 5-7 but could easily see them flipping the Illinois game. They should also be competitive in the Iowa and Purdue games. Maybe even the Northwestern game if the NU rushing attack isn’t any good. The reason I’m not totally buying them should be obvious and since this is already my longest preview going, I’m just going to repeat those reasons in bullet-point form:
- HUGE unknown at quarterback
- Lack of experienced depth at RB and LB
- Defensive line cohesion
- Possibly another down year on special teams
The upside is there and the recruiting under Fleck is way, way up but those four points really scared me away from predicting bigger things from this club in 2018. 2019 though? Well, check back in a year.
Big Ten and Counting 