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2018 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Rutgers

Back in 2016 Rutgers had one of the historically worst seasons in Big Ten history.  They went 0-9 and endured four, yes FOUR shutout losses.  They weren’t just 14-0 shutouts either, they were truly epic thrashings.  58-0 at Ohio State.  78-0 to Michigan.  49-0 at Michigan state.  39-0 to Penn State.  For the season Rutgers was just 1-10 against FBS opponents and looked like a program that would struggle in the Sun Belt, let alone the Big Ten.

The nice thing about hitting rock bottom as a football program is there is really only one direction to go and that is obviously up.  Rutgers achieved that in 2017.  Yes, the were shutout twice and lost their final three games by a combined 116-13 to take an okay record at 4-5 (3-3) and turn it into 4-8 (3-6) but real improvement was shown: three league wins, much more competitive in the losses (even with some clunkers), and knocked off a bowl-winning club – Purdue.

What explained this improvement?  Well it wasn’t the offense, that’s for sure.  Rutgers finished 87th in rushing yards per game, 115th in passing yards per game, and a wretched 121st in points per game with just 18 points on average each Saturday.  Only Illinois’s 15.4 points (127th nationally) was a worse scoring offense in the conference.  No the real reason for improvement was a defensive unit going from 94th in scoring to 69th as the Knights gave up a whole touchdown less per game on average in 2017 compared to 2016.  For the defensive minded Chris Ash, if year three is to be a breakthrough season, that defense needs to continue its rise and carry a still muddled offensive situation.

The primary source for continued improvement in defense will be the linebacking group.  Trevor Morris led the team with 118 tackles a season ago and was second in the league with nearly 10 tackles a game, enough to earn him an All Big Ten Honorable Mention last year.  The senior is a sure tackler and has a feel for diagnosing plays that is critical for his team.  Next to Morris in the middle is Deonte Roberts, who finished second on the team with 104 tackles.  Also a senior, Roberts has the experience in college football to be an asset both on and off the field, something is teammates recognized by making him a captain last season.

The other linebacking spots are a little more open but three players stand the best odds of getting into the rotation.  The first is Tyreek Maddox-Williams, who played in 11 games with six starts as a freshman but missed all of last year with a season-ending injury in camp.  Another option could be Tyshon Fogg.  The sophomore got a lot of run in spring ball as Morris was nursing a dislocated elbow.  Finally JUCO transfer Malik Dixon will be in the mix.  Despite being listed as a defensive back, the dude is 6’3″, 215 and already made the switch once, going from safety to LB back when we was at South Florida.  While Morris and Roberts are set, the rest of the rotation has a ton of choices because beyond Dixon, Fogg, and Maddox-Williams, there are a ton of other choices as the linebacking group is by far the deepest position for Rutgers.

The other strength for the Rutgers defense comes in the defensive back group.  Returning at corner is Isaiah Wharton.  This guy is an absolute rock in the line-up having started all 36 games of his career so far.  There is a reason he gets so much playing time as he is a nice tackler and very good pass defender.  With all that experience under his belt, there is very little an offense can throw at Wharton that he hasn’t seen before.

Across from Wharton is another solid corner, Blessuan Austin.  Austin was an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention as a sophomore in 2016 and was headed for another brilliant season in 2017 before tearing his ACL.  Austin has the skills for the next level and there was a chance he was leaving after his junior year before he went down with the injury.  The hope everyone has for this young man is that he finishes his career strong and then goes and gets himself a big pay day in the NFL.

Another corner, maybe, that will be key for Rutgers is Damon Hayes.  Hayes is one of those Swiss Army knife type players where you can put him at corner against anybody or either safety position and the guy will succeed.  Last year he was another All-Big Ten Honorable Mention for Rutgers as he played in all 12 games with eight starts at corner.  Expect to see Hayes all over the field again this season.

Wrapping up things in the secondary is safety Saquan Hampton, who had seven starts in eight games on the back end last year.  He’s missed playing time each of the last two seasons, but if he can remain healthy, Hampton is a solid option to have at safety.  Not an option though is K.J. Gray who was dismissed from the team earlier this month.  In a strange twist, Kiy Hester is now returning to Rutgers.  Hester announced his intention to transfer to FIU in December but the safety eventually changed course.

While the LB and DB positions look rosy, the problem is teams might gain a chunk of yards before these groups can stop the play because the biggest question for Rutgers defensively is along the line.  Two big reasons for this: the graduations of Kemoko Turay, a senior stud who lead the team in sacks last year and Sebastian Joseph, another key senior who has been responsible for 13.5 tackles for loss the last three seasons.

With those seniors gone, the DL will now be anchored by end Kevin Wilkins, who is entering his own senior campaign.  Wilkins led the team in TFLs last year but probably his biggest asset will be age and experience because the rest of the line looks to be a young one.  How young?  Well, the most likely other starting end, Elorm Lumor, is a redshirt sophomore with just three starts to his name.  Another potential starter is Julius Turner, Turay’s back-up last season, is entering his redshirt sophomore season.

Thankfully there are three other players worth mentioning on this line.  Jon Bateky started eight games as a junior and had productive season.  While not a rock star like Turay or showing the potential of Wilkins, Bateky is a seasoned player.  Junior Willington Previlon got four starts a year ago at DT and true sophomore CJ Onyechi may also get an expanded role after playing in all 12 games a season ago.  After these six guys, well, its all redshirt kids or true freshman.  The line is not only trending younger with Lumor and Turner, but it is also frighteningly thin.  This unit is going to have to have some extremely fortunate injury luck, otherwise some total no-names will be thrust into prominent roles.

Admittedly the line situation is a rough one because of how thin they are on the depth chart but overall the defense looks to be serviceable.  They finished 69th in scoring last season, a big leap from 2016.  Another leap up 10-20 spots so they finish in the 50s of scoring defense, doesn’t sound like a reach if that line stays healthy.  I like the look of the secondary and the linebacking rotation looks like a strong one thanks to the duo of Morris and Roberts.  Therefore the debate around Rutgers shifts from can they stop anybody to will they score on anybody.  This is the problem facing new OC John McNulty.

McNulty inherits a team that finished dead freaking last in total O a year ago and, quite frankly, based on the quarterback and overall passing game situation, it could be another long season for the Rutgers offense.  Looking at the strength of this side of the ball, it is clearly going to have to be a run-oriented offense.  Graduate transfer Jonathan Hilliman comes in from BC to provide an experienced voice for sophomore Raheem Blackshear, the best weapon on this team.

Looking at Hilliman first, his BC career was a decent one and capped off nicely with a 638 yard senior season.  Probably the best thing about Hilliman last year was showing some touch with the hands.  After just five career receptions, Hilliman became a much more dynamic weapon with 24 catches last season to help the Eagles make a bowl.  Make no mistake though, Blackshear will get the lion’s share of touches.  With just 39 carries last year, Blackshear racked up 238 yards – an impressive 6.1 average – and three scores.  He was also a dynamic receiver with 7 catches being turned into 133 yards (that’s a 19 yard average) and two scores.  Blackshear will need to get the ball early and often if Rutgers hopes to improve anything offensively.

As for the blocking, well, this is actually a silver lining moment.  2016 and 2017 All-Big Ten Honorable Mention Tariq Cole is back to be that rock at left tackle on the RU line.  Another returning player is sophomore Michael Maietti.  He got plenty of playing time last season with nine starts at center.  Finally Kamaal Seymour is tying down the right tackle spot.  He started all 12 games there last season and continues to excel on and off the field as an academic All-Big Ten member in 2017.

The ability for Rutgers to lay a lick isn’t done yet.  Multiple Academic All-Big Ten team member and distinguished scholar Zack Heeman is a senior with plenty of experience, Jonah Jackson was a versatile player getting time at center and guard last year, and fullback Max Anthony returns.  Two guys who could also make an impact are incoming freshman Raiqwon O’Neal, a guy who was sought after by a grocery list of power conference teams, and sophomore Micah Clark, who was a four-star recruit last season.

The final bright spot to talk about for the RU offense is tight end Jerome Washington.  Washington is on the Mackey watch list because he led the team in receptions and yards last year.  Nakia Griffin-Stewart got some nice playing time last season and will again in 2018.  Travis Vokolek will also see time at TE.  Freshman Jalen Jordan rounds out the talented TE group but he will probably redshirt this year.  Washington is a NFL level player and Griffin-Stewart is a huge target with sure hands.  While not as sexy as running back, the TE group might actually be better.  The problem is, it is really hard to run an offense through the tight ends.  Especially when the receiving corps is as young as they are and the quarterback situation is as unclear as Rutgers’s…

…And that is the problem for RU.  Who in the world is passing the ball and outside of Washington, who the hell is he going to pass to?  Let’s first go to the mess that is the man doing the throwing.  Last year’s, um, best(?) quarterback, Kyle Bolin, was a transfer from Louisville and wrapped up his collegiate career.  That leaves two returning QBs with experience: Giovanni Rescigno and Johnathan Lewis.

The senior Rescigno is a case of destroyed confidence.  In 2016 he was the starter in the final six games of the season.  He had some good games, too putting up 22/38, 220 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs at Minnesota, 19/36, 258 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs against Indiana, and 22/39, 203 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs at Maryland.  These are not bad games for a first year starting quarterback.  Unfortunately he was doubted by Ash, lost his job in camp, and was a shell of his former self last year.  In 2017 he never completed more than nine passes in a game, never passed for more than 110 yards in a game, only threw two TDs, his completion percentage dropped by nearly 6 points and his yards per attempt also dropped.  I’m not sure the 2016 version of this kid is ever coming back, but if he does, it would help the passing game a lot.

Johnathan Lewis was a freshman when he was called upon last year and played a lot like a freshman.  In limited reps he completed just 14 of 38 passes for 167 yards, had 2 TDs but 4 INTs so, yeah, the experienced returning talent at QB isn’t too hot.  That is good news though for four-star recruit Artur Sitkowski.  Sitkowski had offers from basically every school you can think of and was all set to go to Miami (FL) before switching to Rutgers very late in the process.  The surprise switch could mean that RU’s quarterback of the future is on the team already.  It didn’t take long for Sitkowski to impress as he shined in the spring game.  Rounding out the quarterback situation is three-star kid Jalen Chatman.  A pure duel threat player, Chatman’s other three FBS offers were Army, Navy, and Tulane.  All three run option offenses.  Don’t expect Chatman to make an impact this season but he is an intriguing athlete who ran for 622 yards and threw for almost 4000 yards as senior to finish his prep career.

So let’s assume that Rescigno gets the nod but has a very short leash before Lewis or Sitkowski gets the keys to the offense.  We know they can pass it to Jerome Washington.  After that?  Well, the receiving group at Rutgers is probably the worst in the league.  Look at the leading WRs last year: Janarion Grant, NFL, Damon Mitchell, graduated, Dacoven Bailey, graduated, even RB Gus Edwards is now in the NFL.  The situation is dire.

The leading receiver back is Hunter Hayek who had, drum roll please, eight catches a year ago!  Bo Melton (4 catches) at least has some big play potential as he averaged 20.8 yards per catch last season.  After that, it is all unproven guys.  Long story short, this unit is in DESPERATE need of someone stepping up.  Quite frankly, they will be stepping up from nowhere because this unit is just a huge question mark right now.

Lastly, there is a chance everything I just said could go into massive upheaval.  Eight unknown players are currently under investigation for credit card fraud.  No charges have been filed, no names have been announced, no discipline has happened yet or if it is needed, and Chris Ash said at Big Ten media days that the discipline has been handled and will be finalized if/when charges are filed.  The thing to keep in mind is, a role player or two dismissed isn’t the end of the world but say it involves one of those offensive linemen or something, it could totally tank RU’s rebuild this year if they lose several key players down the line.

2018 Schedule

Texas State

  • Best Case – Texas state San Marcos is coming off a 2-10 (1-7) season in which they could only knock off a FCS school and Coastal Carolina, a FBS team in its infancy.  1-0
  • Worst Case – Look, the Bobcats lost 62-9 last year at Troy.  They aren’t good.  1-0
  • Prediction – For the life of me I don’t see a way for Rutgers to blow this game, that’s how bad State is.  Now, UTSA and you got another story, but not Texas State.  W, 42-10, 1-0

At Ohio State

  • BC – Yeah….even in a best case the Knights aren’t winning in the Shoe.  1-1
  • WC – The total score the last two years in this game? 114-0.  1-1
  • P – Scoring some points for the first time in two years against OSU would be a nice place to start.  L, 56-7, 1-1 (0-1)

At Kansas

  • BC – The last time Kansas went better than 3-9 was 2009 with a 5-7 mark.  2-1
  • WC – Kansas may have actually gotten worse in 2017 than 2016.  That rebuild is, well, it’s not good, let’s put it that way.  2-1
  • P – Over on the podcast I had some fun in 2016 when I randomly picked Kansas to upset Texas.  That’s the last time I’ve picked Kansas to do anything good.  W, 35-17, 2-1 (0-1)

Buffalo

  • BC – Rutgers and Buffalo have a thrilling game like UB’s loss to Western Michigan last year.  In case you don’t remember that one, the final was 71-68 and was decided in 7 overtimes.  3-1
  • WC – Lance Leipold’s program had a bit of a breakthrough last year, winning six games.  They also return outstanding quarterback Tyree Jackson.  2-2
  • P – Yes, I’m putting RU on upset watch to Buffalo but no I’m not going to pick the Bulls to win.  Buffalo lost at Minnesota last year.  This RU team has a lot of questions around it, but they ought to be at least on the same block as Minnesota in terms of talent.  If not, we have a massive problem brewing in New Jersey.  W, 21-14, 3-1 (0-1)

Indiana

  • BC – Richard Lagow struggled at times last year but he was still a solid quarterback and now he graduated.  The Peyton Ramsey era begins with a whimper.  4-1
  • WC – Outside Ramesey, who actually played well last year as a freshman, the returning talent on Indiana is pretty impressive.  Uh-oh.  2-3
  • P – Hoosiers won this game 41-0 a season ago and have a lot of the same faces back.  Hoosiers in a heartbeat.  L, 35-13, 3-2 (0-2)

Illinois

  • BC – Rutgers enjoys offensive improvement while Illinois remains a joke on offense.  5-1
  • WC – It is Illinois enjoying a breakthrough season and heading towards a bowl while Rutgers remains a joke.  2-4
  • P – Both teams have big blank spots at quarterback but Illinois has a little bit more in the way of skill position players back and a big edge on special teams.  That can matter when two teams are this similar on paper.  L, 24-21, 3-3 (0-3)

At Maryland

  • BC – Holy crap a bowl game!  6-1
  • WC – Maryland is the surprising darling of the Big Ten and heading to a bowl after mopping up the bottom feeding boys from Jersey.  2-5
  • P – If healthy, Maryland is the much better team.  Of course they haven’t stayed healthy in the past, so…L, 28-14, 3-4 (0-4)

Northwestern

  • BC – After getting a look at the top-25, reality comes back a bit as the steady Cats get a nice road win.  6-2
  • WC – RU’s AD called out including Chris Ash on any hot seat lists.  Dude, your guy is 6-18 (3-15) with one of the most historically awful teams two years ago.  Last year the team won four games but were still god awful on offense.  At some point you have to admit Ash just isn’t going to have an offense that cuts it.  2-6
  • P – Fitz won ten games a year ago.  Replacing Justin Jackson is next to impossible but the foundation for this program is rock solid.  L, 28-10, 3-5 (0-5)

At Wisconsin

  • BC – Remember how I said RU’s DL has some nice starters but is really thin?  That won’t work against Wisconsin who just grinds you down.  6-3
  • WC – These teams haven’t met since 2015.  I think Wisconsin will enjoy getting RU back in the rotation.  2-7
  • P – UW runs left, right, over, around, and through the hapless Knights.  L, 42-3, 3-6 (0-6)

Michigan

  • BC – A moral victory for Rutgers as they almost get win number seven.  6-4
  • WC – Last time Michigan was in New Jersey the final score was 78-0.  2-8
  • P – It won’t be 78-0 this time, I swear.  Still won’t be pretty though.  L, 45-10, 3-7 (0-7)

Penn State

  • BC – Trace McSorley shredded this team a year ago.  That doesn’t bode well.  6-5
  • WC – McSorley’s favorite target in this game a year ago is also back.  Uh-oh.  2-9
  • P – I mean how many different ways can I explain that RU has zero offense again this year?  L, 38-7, 3-8 (0-8)

At Michigan State

  • BC – Another moral victory after last year’s 40-7 debacle.  6-6
  • WC – Oh hey, Brian Lewerke shredded this team a year ago and he’s back.  2-10
  • P – RU has no offense.  Hard to win games with no offense.  Especially late in the year.  L, 35-0, 3-9 (0-9)

Final Notes

Let’s just ignore the defense for a second because the D is okay, not great, but serviceable and zoom in on that O in bullet-point fashion:

  • Quarterback: ???? (currently a F, maybe Sitkowski is the real deal)
  • Running back: C- / D+
  • TE: A- / B+
  • WR: ???? (currently a F)
  • OL: C+

For the third year in a row, this team will not score.  The defense might be able to steal some games early on as the first eight games are pretty manageable outside OSU and Northwestern, but the final four are at Wisconsin, Michigan, PSU, and at MSU.  That’s a big 0-4 right there.

The question then becomes Ash’s security.  He’s great with defenses and RU’s defense has improved but football requires something we like to call SCORING!  If they do go 3-9 (0-9) like I am predicting, that would put his career mark at 9-27 (3-24).  How can you bring a guy like that back?  If his club was showing improvement and he increased wins by going 2-10, 3-9, 4-8 then fine, I’d say he is building something but what the hell has Chris Ash built so far at Rutgers?  An average defensive team and a truly awful offensive one.  That’s not going to cut it in the stacked Big Ten east.

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