2018 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – Illinois

The previews are…officially back!  What a refreshing offseason for me to recharge my blogging muscles but for some teams, they want to get back to the grind after a miserable 2017 campaign.  One of those clubs wanting to get back at it is the Illinois Fighting Illini.  Last season UI had the worst offense in the league, went 2-10, and lost all nine of their league games.  It got so bad I started calling them the Failing Illini.  So original.

It is one thing to be bad, but you have to be a special brand of bad to go 0-9 in your league.  Two major factors made Illinois that brand of bad.  What is worse, is the two factors worked hand in hand.  Factor one was woeful quarterback play resulting in an anemic offense.  The second was the defense wasn’t good enough to overcome such bad offense.

Focusing on the quarterback situation, three players got at least 60 passing attempts last year.  Chayce Crouch got the job out of camp but he couldn’t complete half his passes, had just 1 TD to 4 picks.  He gave way to Jeff George Jr. who completed 51.9% of his passes, had 7 TDs but 10 INTs.  Finally freshman Cam Thomas got some looks but he ended with a dismal 42.4% completion percentage, threw zero TDs, and tossed 5 interceptions.  Crouch and George both transferred after the season so Cam Thomas is the only returning scholarship quarterback with experience in Lovie Smith’s program.

I say Lovie’s program because it will be new-look.  Coming in from Rich Rodriguez’s staff is new offensive coordinator Rod Smith who will want Illinois to get up and go.  Also shaking things up are several new quarterbacks to compete for the job with Thomas.  Coran Taylor and M.J. Rivers are both 3-star kids coming into the program and Virginia Tech grad transfer A.J. Bush will also be on campus…assuming he gets there.  This is a little joke because last year’s Va Tech to Illinois transfer, Dwayne Lawson, never actually made it to campus.

Of course it may not matter who is the quarterback this year as Illinois has a big name coming in for 2019.  4-star (and 5-star per some outlets) duel threat quarterback Isaiah Williams has already committed from St. Louis to head to Illinois.  So even if the quarterback of the future isn’t on the roster this year, he should be on the depth chart next year.

Assuming Thomas gets the starting gig, the good news is Illinois actually has a few pieces offensively.  Leading rusher Mike Epstein is back after a freshman campaign that saw him average over 6 yards a carry and score three times before a season ending foot injury just five games in.  Epstein also tore an ACL in high school so durability is a lingering question but if he is 100% and can stay that way, the kid is special.

Epstein isn’t the only young gun back to get carries in Rod Smith’s offense.  Ra’Von Bonner also had an injury plagued freshman year but did find pay dirt four times to lead the Illini in rushing scores.  Rounding out the running backs are juniors Reggie Corbin and Dre Brown and some 3-star or below freshman.  Each of the juniors played sparingly last year but considering Arizona had 613 carries as a team last year for over 4000 yards, third best in football, and five players all had at least 60 carries, it is safe to say that the bigger the rotation the better at running back under Smith.

As for who Thomas will throw to, well here again there are some pieces worth noting.  Leading target Ricky Smalling is back from an impressive 2017 season where he turned just 31 catches into 510 yards and 2 scores.  That’s a 16.5 average each time he catches a pass!  Smalling is still a work in progress, too.  Last year was his freshman season.  This is the kind of kid Illinois can really build around.

Helping round out the receiving corps is senior Mike Dudek and junior Trenard Davis.  Dudek had one of the all time great freshman seasons a few years ago but sustained two ACL injuries before returning last year.  He was somewhat effective with 24 catches, 262 yards, and a touchdown but he was still regaining his football strength and had to play with the mess at quarterback.  Like Epstein, if he is 100%, Dudek can really contribute to this team.

A couple young guns to also keep in mind are Carmoni Green, Carlos Sandy, and Edwin Carter.  Sandy and Carter are in-coming freshman and were each three-star recruits.  Green played sparingly as a true freshman last year but the Miami prospect was a three and four-star recruit depending on which service you use.

If that receiving group didn’t exactly excite you, I have some good news, it is bolstered by a really good young tight end.  As a freshman Louis Dorsey hauled in 22 balls for 395 yards, second best on the team, to go along with a team-leading three touchdown receptions.  It was enough to earn All-Freshman honors in the Big Ten and his growth will be instrumental in improving the offense that struggled so much a year ago.

After Dursey the TE group is a little thin but Caleb Reams could help both WR and TE groups.  Reams switched positions last year and saw the field more as a wideout but his 6’2″, 240 frame and sure hands makes him a good target regardless of where he lines up.  Considering Arizona didn’t use the tight end all that much under OC Rod Smith, perhaps just going with Dursey and having Reams be the emergency option will be fine, but either way it is nice to know that Illinois’s options at both WR and TE aren’t hopeless.

What could be hopeless though is the offensive line.  Last year the Illini finished 124th in rushing per game with just 102.6 yards a game.  They weren’t much better keeping quarterbacks upright either as UI gave up 42 sacks a season ago, sixth most in college football.  There is room for improvement, however.  Four freshman started on the line last year and the main quarterback was a statue.  Using a mobil quarterback resulted in just 18 sacks last season for Arizona so perhaps Smith’s system will cut down on that figure.  There is also the old belief that age and experience will make you a stronger outfit.

No matter the young pups around him, the OL is anchored by senior guard Nick Allegretti.  He was an All-Big Ten honorable mention last year and has *knock on wood* been a Joe Thomas like fixture in the line up.  Last year he played 99% of Illinois’s offensive snaps.  You can bet that Allegretti will be a big reason why this unit enjoys any improvement.

So rewinding, I said that there were two major factors resulting in 0-9 for Illinois.  The first was a bad quarterback situation and the second was the defense.  We’ve covered the offensive side of the ball pretty well so now it’s time to look at the defense and why they struggled so much and if there is anything to improve it.

The first thing to know is Illinois finished 91st in points allowed last year, giving up 31.5 on average.  While the pass defense was a respectable 33rd in the nation last year, the rush defense was routinely picked apart, finishing 116th in the nation at 218.3 yards per game allowed.  This lack of rush defense cost Illinois in winnable games.  Rutgers for instance racked up 274 yards en route to the Knights victory.

What made Illinois so bad against the rush was youth and injury.  Much like the OL, the defensive front seven went young, very young, a year ago to go along with some dents and dings along the way.  Unlike the offensive line though, there are a ton of viable options to beef this unit up.

First up in the docket of mentionable players is Bobby Roundtree who is coming off a brilliant freshman debut.  He played all 12 games with nine starts on the end and racked up 50 tackles, 28 solo, 4 TFLs, 4 sacks, defended 3 passes, and forced a fumble.  All told he disrupted enough teams to earn All-Freshman Big Ten honors.  Over on the other end is Isaiah Gay, another sophomore.  Gay appeared in all 12 games with two starts.  The ends of the line may be young, but there is a ton of potential, especially with Roundtree having the skills to be a real force.

On the interior is junior Tymir Oliver who is coming off a solid sophomore campaign.  He played in all 12 games, made 10 starts, hauled down 33 opponents, 4.5 TFLs, and 3 sacks.  The team captain will be called on to anchor that line again this season.  Next to Oliver is probably Kenyon Jackson, another junior.  Jackson appeared in 11 games, had 3 starts, racked up 22 tackles, 2 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks.

Roundtree, Gay, and Oliver seem set and Jackson will get plenty of playing time but there are other options if any of these guys go down or Jackson doesn’t wrap up the starting job.  The first of these is Jamal Milan.  He had six starts and played in 10 games before missing time with injury.  Among his other attributes, the guy has a nose for the football, recovering two fumbles last year.  Ayo Shogbonyo is another intriguing option as he makes the switched from LB to the line.  The versatile Shogbonyo had the second most special teams tackles a season ago.  Jamal Woods is also a guy with a lot of upside has he played several positions on the line last year and even got four starts.  He was a Big Ten All-Freshman honorable mention with 24 tackles, 12 solo, and 3.5 TFLs.

I feel like an informercial presenter but guess what, there is even more help coming to the DL.  Owen Carney Jr. played in 10 games and while not showing too much in his freshman season, Carney was a four star recruit per Rivals.  Another four-star (ESPN and Rivals) kid coming in is freshman Verdis Brown.  He’s listed on the DL right now, but was also a very good prep center so we might see him switch sides during his career as Illinois still has a lot to figure out on both lines.  Calvin Avery is a a third four-star (247, ESPN, and Rivals) and he comes in from Dallas.  The prized recruit had offers from blue blood programs Oklahoma, Texas, and others but spurned them all to head to Illinois.

If by some reason NONE of the guys I mentioned pan out, Illinois also has several other three-star freshman so it is safe to say the struggles on the DL should be reduced.  It is still really young so while I’m not expecting them to become the best unit in the west, I do expect them to be much improved.

The outlook behind the line is less rosy.  Del’Shawn Phillips is the most experienced linebacker coming back.  The senior had 10 starts last season and put up some solid numbers with 85 tackles, 46 solo, 4 TFLs, and a sack.  Both tackle and solo numbers led the Illini last year.  The former four star recruit has had a nice transition from JUCO but the staff still wants and expects more from the talented Phillips.

Behind Phillips, the LB group needs some people to pan out or stay healthy.  Dale Harding had five starts last year but missed significant time with injury.  Jake Hansen, who had a very good freshman season in 2016, missed all of last year with a season-ending injury in camp.  If healthy, Hansen could really shore things up for this up-and-down unit.  After these guys, it is either unproven freshman – none of them being high recruits – or players that have been primarily special teams contributors thus far in their career.  Bottom line is Coach Lovie Smith and DC Hardy Nickerson really need Phillips to elevate his game and get some good health for this position group to succeed.

The secondary last year was the strength of the Illini defense.  UI finished 33rd in the nation in pass defense and had a decent number of picks with nine.  Safety Bennett Williams was a Freshman All-American from ESPN and was on the BTN All-Freshman team as he had 64 tackles, 34 solo, 1.5 TFLs, and 3 INTs.  Fellow safety Stanley Green was an All-Big Ten honorable mention and lassoed 70 players, 37 solo, had a pick, and the hard-hitter forced three fumbles.  There aren’t a whole lot of guarantees with Illinois but one has to be the level of play at safety UI will get again this year.

At the corner positions, UI will call on BTN All-Freshman performer Nate Hobbs to continue playing solid football after his 48 tackle, 31 solo, 2 TFLs, and 1 sack debut a year ago.  Cameron Watkins should be the other starting corner considering he played in all 12 games and had seven starts.  He ended with 39 tackles, 24 solo, 3.5 TFLs, and had a pick.  While not as dominate as the safeties looks to be, Hobbs and Watkins are both reliable players at corner.

Additional options for the defensive back group starts with Tony Adams who got two starts and played in five games before a season-ending injury and Dawson DeGroot who also got a start a season ago in seven game appearances as a freshman.  Beyond these guys are the regular in-coming freshman, all 3-star or lower recruits, and a bevy of special teams guys.  The nice thing for Illinois is that these options probably wont be called upon as the secondary looks to be the single best thing about Illinois heading into 2018.

I take that back, the secondary is actually the second best thing about Illinois heading into 2018 because the best thing is kicker, Chase McLaughlin.  The senior has been UI’s starter for the last two years.  He is automatic from inside 40 and a respectable 24/34 for his career because the staff trusts him even beyond 50 yards.  I hope I don’t jinx him but McLaughlin is also a perfect 43 of 43 on PATs in his career so far.  Told you he was automatic inside 40.

Year three of the Lovie Smith experiment should be stress free.  The probable quarterback of the future is coming in as a freshman next year, recruiting is up a little, Lovie’s six-year deal means that his seat should remain pretty cool, Hardy Nickerson is a solid DC, and the new OC runs an electric offense.  There is even some talent there.  The question remains, does all this on-paper potential come together or will Illinois face-plant like they did a year ago.  Let’s find out.

2018 Schedule

Kent State

• Best Case – Kent was the Illinois of the MAC last year going just 2-10 (1-7).  Win number six for Lovie!  1-0
• Worst Case – One of the Flashes wins last year was a FCS team.  1-0
• Prediction – Despite a 5-19 start at Illinois, I do think Lovie has assembled a roster that is capable of winning games this year.  Knocking off Kent State will be one of those wins.  W, 31-17, 1-0

Western Illinois

• BC – Lovie is 1-0 against FCS teams.  2-0
• WC – Leathernecks were 9-4 a year ago and made the FCS playoffs.  They also knocked off two FBS teams in 2017.  Factor in playing an in-state team and I can see some potential for an upset, even though I won’t pick it to happen.  2-0
• P – While there is some potential for an upset, Illinois should still win this at least 7 times out of 10, right?!  W, 35-20, 2-0

South Florida (Game at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)

• BC – Hey, Remember Quinton Flowers?  He graduated!  3-0
• WC – USF won 10 games a season ago for more reasons than just Flowers.  2-1
• P – I do like the solid secondary of Illinois going up against a new USF quarterback.  I also like that the game is “neutral” all the way in Chicago.  I give Illinois a good chance at winning this one, except, I’m still picking the Bulls.  Charlie Strong really has this team buying in, they can beat you multiple ways, and they won 10 games in Strong’s first season.  He had barely unpacked in Tampa and they almost made the conference title game.  L, 28-17, 2-1

Penn State

• BC – Hard to see even an improved Illini team pulling off this upset.  3-1
• WC – Trace McSorley is too good a quarterback, even for Illinois’s strength in the back end of their defense.  2-2
• P – Last year against ranked opponents Illinois lost by 24 (USF), 14 (Wisconsin), 38 (Ohio State), and 35 (Northwestern).  A moral victory and keeping it inside 10 would be such a big step forward.  Unfortunately I don’t see Illinois having enough in them this year to achieve that.  L, 42-17, 2-2 (0-1)

At Rutgers

• BC – Hey don’t look now but Illinois is in really good shape to make a bowl through five weeks.  4-1
• WC – Hey don’t look now but Illinois is in really good shape to go 0-9 again.  2-3
• P – Yes RU racked up 274 rushing yards but they could hardly pass against Illinois.  The improved DL gets the job done as Illinois gets the monkey off their back with an early league win.  W, 24-21, 3-2 (1-1)

Purdue

• BC – Purdue’s honeymoon takes a step back and Illinois takes full advantage.  5-1
• WC – The Boilers back up last year’s surprise bowl season with another strong team that is pushing even Wisconsin in the west.  2-4
• P – These teams are somewhat similar except PU has a big edge in proven quarterback play with Elijah Sindelar.  L, 28-14, 3-3 (1-2)

At Wisconsin

• BC – Bowl is still in play but it will have to wait a week as Bucky knocks off the old chief.  5-2
• WC – Despite the big buy out, how much losing is too much for even Illinois to endure?  2-5
• P – Wisconsin’s defense looks to be outstanding yet again.  I don’t like all the questions that remain for Illinois’s O to go against a club like UW.  L, 24-0, 3-4 (1-3)

At Maryland

• BC – There it is, bowl bound!  6-2
• WC – Maryland does the opposite of what they have done the last two years and actually stays healthy.  2-6
• P – This game feels like a toss up but I’m going to go with the Terps for a few reasons.  First, the game is in College Park.  Second, if either Maryland quarterback is healthy (Tyrrell Pigrome and Kasim Hill both had season-ending injuries last year), they are better options than what Illinois has.  L, 28-21, 3-5 (1-4)

Minnesota

• BC – Woah, not just bowl bound but improving their bowl seating.  7-2
• WC – Uff-da, even Minnesota stomps all over UI.  2-7
• P – Illinois’s qb situation isn’t too hot but Minnesota’s is downright ugly.  I’m going to go out on a limb and take the home team.  This might / will totally bite me later on, but here in July, I like Illinois just a smidge better.  W, 21-17, 4-5 (2-4)

At Nebraska

• BC – Umm, what?  Receiving votes?!  8-2
• WC – Scott Frost is the real deal and already replacing Tom Osbourne in Lincoln.  Kidding, that is impossible.  2-8
• P – Shades of the Maryland prediction where I just trust the home team little bit more when teams feel similar on paper.  L, 28-17, 4-6 (2-5)

Iowa

• BC – Iowa has another erratic offense and they decide to sit this one out.  9-2
• WC – Hawks might not be the most complete team on paper right now but they are more talented than Illinois.  2-9
• P – Some big names to fill on Iowa, especially defensively, but that’s why Iowa might get picked off earlier in the year.  They should be much better by the penultimate game.  L, 24-14, 4-7 (2-6)

At Northwestern

• BC – Wildcats are coming off a ten win season and a popular pick to push Wisconsin for Indy.  The quest for ten wins comes up short.  9-3
• WC – Lovie drops to 7-29 (2-27) with back-to-back 0-9 league marks.  2-10
• P – It won’t be easy replacing Justin Jackson but this time Fitz’s program feels more stable coming off ten wins.  The first time they won 10 games, they fell off a cliff to go 5-7 (1-7) the next year.  After winning ten games in 2015, the Cats managed to go 7-6 and win a bowl.  I’m expecting them to remain at a higher level this time around.  L, 38-10, 4-8 (2-7)

Final Notes

Hey, four wins, the same number I predicted last year.  To get there, or beyond, Illinois is going to need a lot of luck this year.  First is injury luck.  Dudek, Epstein, and several other players have all been banged up in their careers and missed significant stretches.  Next bit of luck would be Illinois having a quarterback to show up.  If this happens, UI honestly has some intriguing young pieces.

The secondary should be good, potentially very good.  Once they get older, that unit could even be great.  The DL should also be improved.  I think any improvement Illinois enjoys this season with their record will be a direct result of that defense jumping from the 90s up to somewhere in the 60s.  I’m not sure they have the linebackers to get top 50, but the improvement in defense could be significant enough for Illinois to pick off some offensively-challenged teams.  Who is shaping up to be offensively-challenged?  Well, the Gophers and Scarlet Knights for sure have some issues to figure out.  Maybe even Nebraska and Maryland will be out of sorts enough for some stunning road wins.

No matter who Illinois knocks off, the fact is Illinois will knock off at least one conference opponent.  There are too many good pieces, too many good coaches on this staff, and too favorable of a schedule with Rutgers and Maryland as crossover games to go winless in league again this year.  Still, like most rebuilds, I’ll be looking at the stats and competitiveness more than the wins and losses because even with improvements, I don’t see Illinois winning more than four games this season without some serious intervention from those fickle football gods on high.