Illinois

I was cautiously optimistic in last year’s Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction for the Fighting Illini.  I predicted them to win four games, two of them in league.  In reality I doubled the amount of wins Illinois would gather and worse yet, the Failing Illini would go 0-9 in league.

Where I went right

The defensive and quarterback concerns proved to be spot on as Illinois struggled to stop anybody all year long and the passing game was downright wretched.  As a team they tossed just 8 TDs compared to 19 INTs.  Yuck.

Where I went wrong

This team actually got worse as the season went on.  The Lovie Smith experiment feels like it has about one more pathetic season left in 2018-19 before Illinois is searching for another head coach, assuming Illinois wants to spend big, big money on buying out the rest of his initial six-year contract.  I thought that they would be improved on-field, even if it didn’t show in the record but they got worse in every facet of the game from 2016 to 2017.

Season-Defining Moment

Sitting at 2-3 (0-2) Illinois got what should have been a manageable game against Rutgers.  Instead they were gashed for 274 rushing yards in the 35-24 loss.  It was RU’s first league win since 2015 and passed the torch of 0-9 to the Illini.

MVP

Chase McLoughlin, K – Very little went right for Illinois except for PATs.  McLoughlin went 17/17 last year and in two years as the starter is perfect on PATs.  He is also a solid 24/34 on field goals thus far in his career, going 12/17 last season.

Iowa

One of my better Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction last year as I had 9 wins for the Hawks and they ended up with 8.  I was right about the LB group being amazing, the harder schedule costing some games, and Akrum Wadley being the real deal.  What I didn’t take into account enough was just how all over the map the offense would be.  Be it play calling from new OC Brian Ferentz or up-and-down play of first year starter Nate Stanley, it just turned into a running joke of which offense Iowa would have in a given week.

Where I went right

LBs, RB, schedule.  Still, Iowa had their chances in narrow losses to PSU, MSU, Northwestern, and a very flat effort against Purdue.

Where I went wrong

Even in the best case scenario I had Iowa losing to Ohio State.  Instead they routed them, 55-24.

Season-Defining Moment

While the season had a lot of what-ifs in several close losses, the fact is Iowa picked up their first bowl victory since 2010 and enjoyed their best result ever against Ohio State.  2017 wasn’t the greatest year in Iowa football, but it was a fun one, and dropping 50 on the Buckeyes won’t be happening again soon.  Within the OSU game the fourth down trick play where long snapper Tyler Kluver caught a pass from holder Colten Rastetter to keep a drive alive that would ultimately put Iowa up 38-17 will be talked about for years.

MVP

Hate to chop the award but it has to be done.  LB Josey Jewell is one of Iowa’s all time greats and had a fabulous senior season.  CB Josh Jackson had highlight reel interception after highlight reel interception, including three against OSU.  Finally Akrum Wadley’s 1100 yard season was packed with video game style moves.  All three players won’t have to buy dinner in Iowa City again after their stellar careers.

Minnesota

Let me remind you by pointing out Minnesota won 9 games two years ago with Tracy Claeys, a guy lots of people said was a terrible coach.  With that in mind, adding P.J. Fleck and having a lot of returning pieces made me like UM as a bit of a dark horse and even had them winning eight games in my 2017 Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction.  Of course this would prove to be woefully bad as Minnesota won just 5 game thanks to a terrible defense and miserable quarterback play.

Where I went right

Rodney Smith, Rodney Smith, and Rodney Smith.  The star running back was about the only one to look like their former self in the new coaching regime.

Where I went wrong

A lot of stuff, but probably none bigger than highlighting how easy Minnesota’s schedule was.  It didn’t matter what it was on paper as the Goofs lost 7 league games.  Their only wins were against Nebraska, who fired their coach, and Illinois, who went 0-9 in the league.

Season-Defining Moment

After knocking off Nebraska, Minnesota found themselves at 5-5 (2-6).  An upset win over Northwestern or Wisconsin was a long shot, but a bowl was still in play.  Instead Minnesota went full on Golden Goofer and failed to score another point the rest of the season.  The back-to-back shutouts were the first for the program since 1950 and getting shutout in the annual rivalry with Wisconsin was something not experienced since 1982.  UM didn’t just end the season flat, they fully cratered leaving fans wondering what the hell happened to their wunderkind coach.

MVP

Rodney Smith, RB – The dude was a rock, carrying the ball 229 times for 977 yards and 3 TDs.  Not the flashiest numbers but when you look at the goulish passing “attack” and “defense” Minnesota had en route to that 2-7 league mark, you have to agree that Smith was among the few Gophers competing at a high level.

Nebraska

The Cornhuskers had that rotting corpse smell and so I predicted they would win just five games in 2017 in my Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction post.  It turned out I was a little kinder than the football gods were as Nebraska tasted victory just four times last season.

Where I went right

Two major things.  I called Nebraska ‘woefully thin’ at quarterback and highlighted Tanner Lee’s struggles at Tulane against lesser opponents.  I also did a deep dive on how switching from the 4-3 to the 3-4 isn’t very easy if you haven’t recruited for it.  What ended up happening was a lethal combo of pathetic quarterback play and miserable defense.

Where I went wrong

Well I had them beating Northern Illinois, something the real Huskers failed to do in their nightmare 2017.

Season-Defining Moment

Sitting at 4-4 (3-2) Nebraska was hosting Northwestern.  This game has been extremely exciting the last few years and this one was no different.  Up 24-17 in the fourth, Nebraska was driving; however, it was the Wildcats that would step up with a red-zone interception.  NU then marched 84 yards for the game tying touchdown and would win in overtime.  The confidence was shot after the Northwestern game as the Huskers gave up 50+ points in each of their final three games.

MVP

Stanley Morgan Jr, WR – One part of the receiving duo along with JD Spielman, I decided to go with Morgan Jr because he had more catches (team leading 61), more yards (team leading 986), and a whopping 10 receiving touchdowns.

Northwestern

From my Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction post last summer, “When looking at this roster, I’m reminded of Northwestern’s cardiac cat days with Barnett and Walker winning three league titles.  The most notable of these was the 54-51 thriller over Michigan in 2000. One of the parallels is phenomenal running back play”  Considering NU won three overtime games last season, I would say I had the cardiac cats part dead on.  I wasn’t too far off in wins either, as I predicted 8 regular season wins.  In the end Northwestern would win nine regular season games plus a bowl to hit that 10-win mark.

Where I went right

Outside being close on wins, I was right that Justin Jackson would be called on again and again and again and again in 2017.  He ended with 287 carries for 1311 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns.  I was also right about the NU pass blocking being a lingering issue as the Clayton Thorson was sacked 30 times last year.

Where I went wrong

I said the NU defense would take a step back from their 59th total defensive standing in 2016.  In reality it improved to 40th, something that allowed NU to win those close games.

Season-Defining Moment

After knocking off Iowa (for like the 100th time in Kirk Ferentz’s career), NU was sitting at 4-3 (2-2), an alright but unspectacular mark.  Worse, they were facing 16th ranked MSU next and if the previous games against ranked opponents (Wisconsin and Penn State) were anything to go by, Northwestern just didn’t have enough in the tank to beat the cream of the crop in the Big Ten.  After falling behind 10-0 to the Spartans, Northwestern rallied to tie it at the half.  In the second half, NU clawed out leads at 17-10 and 24-17 but both times they relinquished them.  Once in OT the offense was fantastic, racking up 22 points in the three frames.  In the third overtime, up 39-31, Nate Hall managed to get a pick, sealing the win, giving NU their second straight OT victory, and setting the stage for Northwestern to string together eight straight victories to end 2018.

MVP

Justin Jackson, RB – Jackson’s career was a sight to behold as he rushed for at least 1100 yards every season on campus.  Jackson’s senior year was a special one as the team won 10 games for the third time in Pat Fitzgerald’s career to go along with back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history.

Purdue

My Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction wasn’t too kind to Purdue.  I predicted them to go 0-12 (0-9).  In reality they went 7-6 (4-5) and won their bowl game.  My best case for Purdue was a 7-5 so it is safe to say Purdue shattered my expectations.

Where I went right

Nowhere?  My best case was pretty close to the mark.  I did feel good about highlighting the tight ends.  Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins combined for 45 catches, 680 yards, and six TDs.  In their important win against Ohio early in the year, both guys were big but they were solid targets throughout the season as well as good blockers.

Where I went wrong

Everywhere.  Truth be told when the Boilermakers were sitting at 3-5 (1-4) I thought they were in a tailspin that they would not get out of.  Instead they won 3 of their final 4, including in Kinnick, to make a bowl and then knocked off Arizona to clinch their first bowl victory since 2011.

Season-Defining Moment

Purdue came to Kinnick a week after a 10 point loss to Northwestern dropped them to 5-6 on the year.  Down 14-9 at the half in Iowa City, the Boilermakers got the ball to start the third.  Their first drive was a quick 3 play, 75 yard TD drive thanks to a 42 yard touchdown pass.  Purdue didn’t look back, winning that game 24-15 and staying hot through the Indiana finale and the bowl.

MVP

Elijah Sindelar, QB – Although not initially the starter, Sindelar won the job and was instrumental in 3 of their 4 league wins as well as the bowl victory.

Wisconsin

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner for my clear cut best Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction post from a year ago.  I predicted the Badgers would run the tables and go 12-0 (9-0) which they absolutely did in a memorable season that came up just a touch short in Indianapolis before winning the bowl to wrap up a marvelous 13-1 (9-0) final mark.

Where I went right

I talked a ton about the defense and the offensive line.  I also mentioned the depth they had returning at running back, although I will admit, I somehow missed talking more about Jonathan Taylor.  In fact, I spent so much time on the returning pieces that I actually failed to mention him.  Oops.

Where I went wrong

Despite loving the players on defense, I did highlight a concern about having a new defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard.  That concern, was, well, unnecessary.

Season-Defining Moment

I could talk about the defensive stands OSU made late in the 27-21 Big Ten title game, but that doesn’t really define Wisconsin’s 13 wins.  I’m going to go in a different direction and highlight the Purdue game.  Wisconsin was 7th in the nation and 5-0 (3-0) when the pesky Boilermakers headed up to Madison.  The game had an unusual feel like UW was reading too many clippings about itself or they were looking past Purdue or maybe it was just the moment we should have all realized Purdue could ball but the game was competitive, way too competitive.

After jumping out to a 14-0 lead, Wisconsin just turned off the gas offensively.  Following the second touchdown the rest of their first half drives were rough: INT, punt, FG.  The first three drives of the second half were even uglier: INT, fumble, punt.  With the game 17-9 and 10:33 left and Purdue’s ball, somebody was going to have to make a play.

It looked like Purdue was going to be the team to push the right buttons as they drove it all the way to the Wisconsin 7 yard line.  Once there it was time for some hero ball.  Leon Jacobs came up with the biggest interception of his career.  Then, finally, after a rough day it was the UW offense who stepped up.  Wisconsin put together an incredible 16 play, 77 yard drive, that took off the remaining 8:14 of game time allowing the Badgers to escape, 17-9.