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2017 Josh’s Final Top 25

Alabama?  Barf.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (57)
  2. Georgia
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Clemson
  5. Ohio State
  6. UCF (4) – Hell yeah, love the four votes!
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Penn State
  9. TCU
  10. Auburn
  11. Notre Dame
  12. USC
  13. Miami (FL)
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Michigan State
  16. Washington
  17. Northwestern
  18. LSU
  19. Mississippi State – Hey, let’s just rank every SEC team!
  20. Stanford
  21. South Florida
  22. Boise State
  23. NC State
  24. Virginia Tech
  25. Memphis

Dropped out: Washington State (21)

Receiving votes: Washington State, South Carolina, Iowa State, Army, Florida Atlantic, Troy, Fresno State, San Diego State, Iowa

My Top 25:

  1. UCF – One true champion!  Alabama had no business being in the final four.  Yes, they won.  Good for them, really, congrats…but it was wrong to let them in.  It’s like a cheating spouse picking you up from the airport.  Good for them, they did something right.  Why did you invite them in the first place?
  2. Alabama
  3. Georgia
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Clemson
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Penn State
  8. TCU
  9. Auburn
  10. Notre Dame
  11. USC
  12. Miami (FL)
  13. Michigan State
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Northwestern
  16. Washington
  17. Mississippi State
  18. Stanford
  19. Florida Atlantic
  20. Troy
  21. – 25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Two teams to look at…South Florida and Memphis.  One won their bowl but the other was ranked a poll ago.  Both will move on.

AAC Nominee: USF and Memphis

Atlantic Coast Conference

Virginia Tech was in the real poll a week ago.  Not mine, and then they lost their bowl.  Get out of here.  I’ve had Wake sniffing around and even ranked earlier in the year and they did win their bowl game but clearly NC State finished the year the strongest, dropping Arizona State in their bowl game like third period French.

ACC Nominee: NC State

Big 12 Conference

They both have 5 losses so they are long shots but both Kansas State and Iowa State won their bowls to get to 8-5.  Why should they be looked at more than Virginia Tech?  Because Tech is overrated from a worse conference.

Big 12 Nominees: Kansas State and Iowa State

Mountain West Conference

Good lord this league has been messing with my poll all year long.  I had SDSU ranked before bowl season but then they lost to Army while both Fresno State and Boise State won.  Just like a sloppy hockey line change, one team is out, but two are moving on.

MTW Nominees: Boise State and Fresno State

Southeastern Conference

LSU was ranked a poll ago but lost their bowl.  Still at 6-2 in league and 9 wins overall, I’ll keep them around.  Bowl winner South Carolina also joins the fray.

SEC Nominees: LSU and South Carolina

Elimination Time

The above nine teams join Army and Appalachian State to form a master list of eleven teams all vying for the last five spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Well that was quick for those Big 12 teams.  Despite getting a look both K-State and the Clones are knocked out.  8-5 (5-4) was always a stretch to get ranked but they each have an FCS team making them really just 7-5.  App State also takes a bow here.  9-4 and dominating their bowl is nice, but the Sun Belt means you need a lot of wins and/or a marquee win.  An FCS team makes Appy closer to 8-4 and takes a date away for a marquee win.

Bad Game(s)…Dang, I was really hoping to find a way to get Army in but unfortunately they had an FCS win but also a loss to sub .500 Tulane.  Factor in just one ranked opponent faced all year and sadly the 10 win Black Knights will be on the outside looking in.

Final Seven

For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Boise State
    • BW: Troy but maybe: SDSU, Fresno (MWC title game), Oregon (Bowl)
    • WW: New Mexico
    • BL: at Washington State (3 OT)
    • WL: Virginia (by 19)
  • Fresno State
    • BW: at SDSU, Boise (regular), Houston (Bowl)
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Boise (title game)
    • WL: UNLV (by 10)
  • LSU
    • BW: Auburn
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Alabama (by 14)
    • WL: at Mississippi State (by 30)
  • Memphis
    • BW: Navy, maybe UCLA
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: UCF (title game, 2 OT)
    • WL: UCF (regular, by 27)
  • NC State
    • BW: Louisville or FSU
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Clemson (by 7)
    • WL: at Notre Dame (by 21)
  • South Carolina
    • BW: NC State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Georgia (by 14)
    • WL: Clemson (by 24)
  • South Florida
    • BW: Texas Tech (Bowl)
    • WW: FCS / all of them
    • BL: at UCF (by 7)
    • WL: N/A

So the first thing that jumped out was just how impressive LSU still is even with the bowl loss.  They play in a tough division, also took on Troy, beat Auburn, won nine games.  They’re going to be in.  Not sure where, but they’re in.

The next thing that caught my eye was the lack of FCS team on Boise’s schedule, resulting in their worst win being a conference foe.  Combine that with a really impressive grocery list of best wins, and Boise will get in.  That’s two of five spots locked up.

I think there is something to be said about consistency and that is where South Florida shines.  Their schedule ended up being very easy so they only got a signature win in bowl season, but they won all their games outside of two and those were decided by a grand total of 11 points.  You can only play who is on your plate, and USF played ’em all really well.

So I’ve got two spots left and the battle is now between Fresno State, Memphis, NC State, and South Carolina.  Fresno State and the Gamecocks each have four losses so I want to try and knock one of them out.  Unfortunately it is Fresno State.  I loved what they did this year making the league title game but they were 0-2 against power league teams.  Combine that with a FCS victory and I’m just not sure enough of their league wins can overcome it.  Awesome year Fresno, just not top-25 worthy.

With two spots and three teams available, it becomes a little easier because one is clearly ahead of the other two and that is Memphis.  The Tigers had one bad day against UCF.  The rest of the year they were very consistent.  The championship loss and bowl loss were by a combined 8 points with the UCF re-match being decided in overtime.  Factor in nice wins against UCLA, Houston, and Navy and Memphis will get to stay ranked, despite the bowl loss.

So that leaves NC State and South Carolina.  They played each other, way back in week one, with USC winning.  Since then, the Wolfpack won 9 games and faced four ranked clubs.  South Carolina won 8 more games and faced 2 ranked teams.  Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, I’m just not sold on the SEC East outside of Georgia this year.  Going with the boys from Raleigh.

Final Verdict

21. LSU
22. Boise State
23. South Florida
24. Memphis
25. NC State

League Breakdown

5 – SEC
4 – Big Ten
3 – American, ACC, Big 12, Pac 12
1 – C-USA, Independent, Mountain West, Sun Belt

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