Arizona! What happened?! My darling Wildcats, who I kept in at 22nd, had by far their worst showing of the Khalil Tate era, losing big to Oregon. Guess the bottom of my poll will be altered yet again in this topsy-turvy season.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (58)
- Miami (3)
- Oklahoma
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame – For those of you wondering about the Irish’s “playoff” hopes, they aren’t dead yet and Stanford winning The Big Game versus Cal to remain ranked certainly helped a little. The best thing for the Irish is USC winning the Pac 12 title game big because Notre Dame smoked the Trojans and Oklahoma losing the Big 12 title game therefore knocking the Big 12 out. Irish get a break since the Big 10 and ACC obviously eliminating one of the teams in front of them. Georgia upsetting Alabama would hurt because in that SEC title outcome, I think the SEC would just get both UGA and Bama in.
- TCU
- USC
- Penn State
- UCF
- Washington State – Apple Cup will get either Washington State or Stanford into the Pac 12 title game. If UW wins, Stanford goes because they beat UW head-to-head. If WSU wins, they go because they beat Stanford. So…can WSU make the playoffs at 10-2? They would have wins over ranked Washington, Stanford, USC (twice because of the Pac 12 title game), and Boise State. That’s an awesome resume. It would be hard to overlook the Cougars but my guess is the committee will argue the late 21 point loss to Arizona and the 34 point loss to Cal, despite the strange weather, are too great to overcome.
- Washington
- Mississippi State
- Memphis
- Oklahoma State
- LSU
- Stanford
- Michigan State
- South Florida
- Northwestern
- Virginia Tech – Hmm, a six point win over a bad Pitt team gets you back into the poll? It has been a strange year, I’ll grant you that.
- Boise State – Welcome to the party AP poll, already had the Broncos in for weeks now.
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Oklahoma
- Miami
- Auburn
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- TCU
- Notre Dame – Isn’t it nice when all your top ten teams win so you knock out half your poll in about 30 seconds?
- Penn State
- UCF
- USC
- Washington
- Mississippi State – I was tempted to flip U-dub and Starkvegas but both required late heroics against pedestrian teams. These clubs have been playing with fire lately.
- Memphis
- Washington State
- Oklahoma State
- Boise State
- San Diego State
- Stanford
- LSU
- – 25 See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Four teams that are trending in a whole bunch of different directions. NC State, who I had ranked 25th last week, lost to Wake Forest. The Pack are now 1-3 since that red hot 6-1 start. Wake’s win over NC State got them to an identical 7-4 mark but they are 3-1 their last month. Louisville is also 3-1 in their last four to get to 7-4 but have losses to both NC State and Wake. Finally Virginia Tech is 8-3 but was a narrow win over 4-7 Pitt enough to offset back-to-back losses? In my mind, no. I’m going with Wake Forest. They are as hot as anyone and have wins over THREE bowl-bound ACC teams.
ACC Nominee: Wake Forest
Big 12 Conference
I, unlike the real poll, didn’t have West Virginia ranked a week ago because they haven’t played anyone. While I did give Iowa State (they knocked off Baylor to move to 7-4) and Kansas State (upset win over Okie State) a look, neither is worth ranking right now. Iowa State has too many injuries at quarterback to be a safe pick and 6-5 for Kansas State speaks for itself.
Big 12 Nominee: No One
Big Ten Conference
A trio of 8-3 teams were looked at. Michigan State, who I did not have ranked a week ago thanks to getting DEMOLISHED by Ohio State, bounced back with a ten point win in the snow against Maryland. Michigan, who I did rank, struggled with Wisconsin before losing QB Peters. Northwestern, who I nominated a week ago but did not rank, sunk PJ Fleck’s boat that he was rowing, 39-0. NU will of course be nominated again. Spartans will too, thanks to wins over Michigan, Penn State, and bouncing back after the Ohio State game. Michigan, without Peters, does not justify ranking.
Big Ten Nominee: Michigan State and Northwestern
Conference USA
Florida Atlantic remains unbeaten in league play and has improved to 8-3. North Texas knocked off national darling Army to also get to 8-3. This was an easy pick though, FAU has a head-to-head victory over the Mean Green.
C-USA Nominee: Florida Atlantic
Pacific 12 Conference
Since I had Arizona ranked a week ago, I gave them a shot and looked but the 1-2 record in their last three bounces them. No other team was considered.
Pac 12 Nominee: No One
Southeastern Conference
With LSU safely ranked, the SEC pool now leads us to South Carolina, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and red hot Missouri. Mizzou has ripped off five straight to get to 6-5. Making a bowl after their 1-5 start is outstanding but five loss teams are pretty much never ranked. If they win out and get to 8-5, it will certainly warrant a good long look.
Between A&M, UK, and USC we have a bit of a pickle on our hands. The Gamecocks have the best record at 8-3 but have head-to-head losses to BOTH teams. Despite that potentially large ding to their resume, South Carolina is the hottest of this group going 5-1 in their last six. Kentucky’s last six is 3-3 with two of the losses blowouts. A&M is also 3-3 with two blowouts.
SEC Nominee: South Carolina
Elimination Time
The above five join South Florida, Toledo, Fresno State, and Troy to form a master list of nine clubs vying for the final three spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…Playing a FCS team isn’t disqualifying but when you are 1-3 in the non conference and the lone victory is a FCS team, it ain’t good. FAU continues to impress but I can’t get over the Wisconsin, Navy, and Buffalo games. They were early on and it is Kiffin’s first year so I’m tempted to ignore it but C-USA feels weaker this year than normal. I need to see the Owls keep pouring it on for a few more weeks. Fresno State is in the same boat. They did beat SDSU, which is awesome, but their record is helped out by a FCS team, San Jose State (1-11), New Mexico (3-8), Hawaii (3-8), Nevada (2-9), and BYU (3-9). Those are a lot of bad ball clubs PLUS a dip in the FCS pool. Not going to cut it.
Bad Game(s)…Toledo is 9-2 and the class of the MAC but they have a bad loss to Miami and then a very, very bad loss in league. Last week they lost by 28 to Ohio. Can’t overcome that just by knocking off Bowling Green.
Final Six
Talk about some new blood in the poll. South Carolina, Wake Forest, and Troy all still in the running. Awesome stuff. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Michigan State
- BW: Penn State
- WW: Iowa (kidding, it is Bowling Green)
- BL: at Northwestern (by 8, OT)
- WL: at Ohio State (by 45)
- Northwestern
- BW: Michigan State
- WW: Iowa (kidding, it is Bowling Green…no, no, it really is Bowling Green. The Falcons played both MSU and NU this year. This wasn’t a copy and paste mistake)
- BL: at Wisconsin (by 9)
- WL: at Duke (by 24)
- South Carolina
- BW: NC State
- WW: FCS (Wofford is a nice team but still FCS)
- BL: at Georgia (by 14)
- WL: Kentucky (by 10)
- South Florida
- BW: Stony Brook? Temple? Tulane?
- WW: San Jose State? All of them?
- BL: Houston (by 4)
- WL: N/A
- Troy
- BW: at LSU
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Boise State (by 11)
- WL: South Alabama (by 11)
- Wake Forest
- BW: NC State
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Notre Dame (by 11) or at Clemson (by 14)
- WL: at Georgia Tech (by 14)
The first thing that catches my eye are how Troy, Michigan State, and Northwestern are the only three to have beaten ranked teams…that are still currently ranked. Those wins have really held up. It is tempting to just fast track them into the rankings but that isn’t exactly fair. For instance South Carolina has avoided the massive loss that Michigan State and Northwestern both have (OSU and Duke games).
Without eliminating anyone, I think I need to go straight to my win-loss criteria. Heads up, this isn’t going to be pretty for South Florida.
- MSU wins: 45-43 (.511)
- MSU overall: 71-50 (.587)
- NU wins: 36-52 (.409)
- NU overall: 61-60 (.504)
- USC wins: 43-44 (.494)
- USC overall: 67-53 (.670)
- USF wins: 33-67 (.330)
- USF overall: 39-71 (.355)
- Troy wins: 34-48 (.415)
- Troy overall: 47-47 (.466)
- Wake wins: 40-36 (.526)
- Wake overall: 68-50 (.576)
Rankings in opponents’ win percentage in wins:
- Wake Forest
- Michigan State
- South Carolina
- Troy
- Northwestern
- South Florida
Ranking in opponents’ win percentage for whole season:
- South Carolina
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Northwestern
- Troy
- South Florida
Average ranking:
- MSU / USC / Wake: 2.0
- NU / Troy: 4.5
- USF: 6.0
As I expected, that is pretty damning for USF. They haven’t beaten a single team above .500 this year. 9-1 is awesome, and I would love to find a way to rank them but I just can’t. They lake a marquee win like Troy or a body of work claim like Wake. They’re out.
Using this data shows that Michigan State has to be ranked. Their overall schedule isn’t as strong as South Carolina’s but thanks to beating Michigan and Penn State, MSU has by far the most impressive opponent W-L in games actually won by a contender to be in my poll.
This leaves two more teams. NU, USC, and Wake have all had to play power five schedules. While that doesn’t immediately disqualify Troy but since the Sun Belt does have some stinkers this year like Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, and Idaho – all teams Troy beat – I’m inclined to bump the Trojans. That win over LSU will keep them around every week, but it is hard for MAC, Belt, and C-USA teams to get in the polls unless they are undefeated.
Since who you have beaten is more important than who you have played overall, I’m really going to focus in on those opponent win percentage in victories.
- Northwestern: .409
- South Carolina: .494
- Wake Forest: .526
Bowl eligible teams defeated:
- Northwestern: 2
- South Carolina: 2
- Wake Forest: 4
That feels pretty definitive, Wake’s body of work is worthy of being ranked. They might not have the flashiest wins, but they have a solid group of teams defeated. Wake joins Sparty in the safe column.
That leaves South Carolina versus Northwestern. The winning percentages are pretty close and they have knocked off the same number of bowl teams. It comes down to a judgement call. To me the SEC East is painfully bad this year and South Carolina is still having tight games. They won one-score games against Tennessee, Vandy, and Florida. None of those teams are bowling and two of them have fired their coaches. Northwestern has three overtime games but two were against bowl-bound teams in Iowa and MSU. They are also blowing out opponents, for instance knocking off Minnesota 39-0, something South Carolina really hasn’t done.
Final Verdict:
23. Michigan State
24. Wake Forest
25. Northwestern
League Breakdown:
5 – Big Ten, SEC
4 – Pac 12
3 – ACC, Big 12
2 – American, Mountain West
1 – Independent
Big Ten and Counting 