Boy, am I glad I didn’t rank my Hawkeyes again after they put up about ten total yards off offense up in Madison. Outside of that, we had a chaotic one, folks.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (57)
- Miami (4)
- Oklahoma
- Clemson
- Wisconsin – They might not dazzle you with sexy football, but outside of Alabama, is there a team more consistent? You always know what you’re getting with the Badgers.
- Auburn
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame – Had Georgia beaten Auburn and kept winning, I think the Irish would have still been closer to the top five (maybe sixish) but with the Dawgs losing, the Irish sort of lost twice on Saturday.
- Oklahoma State
- TCU – Just a friendly reminder, the Frogs beat Okie State by two touchdowns.
- USC
- Penn State
- UCF – What does this team need to do to move up?!?
- Washington State
- Washington
- Mississippi State
- Memphis
- Michigan
- Stanford – They just ended the Pac 12’s playoff hopes, right? I mean USC up there at 12th and two losses, one of them ugly, won’t cut it, right?
- LSU
- Michigan State – I had MSU 18th last week, real poll had them 13th. Not sure how you can rank them after that blowout but we’ll see. I’m just curious how a 48-3 beat down still gets you in the poll.
- South Florida – The AAC this week went: UCF – unmoved, Memphis – unmoved, USF – down one (on a bye week). Awesome stuff, voters.
- West Virginia
- NC State
Dropped Out: Virginia Tech (17), Iowa State (24), Iowa (24)
Receiving Votes: Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Arizona, Iowa State, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Army, Iowa, South Carolina
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Wisconsin
- Oklahoma
- Miami – What, the outrage! If you haven’t noticed already, I don’t do huge swings. Three teams in front of Miami lost, and they moved up 3 spots. The blowout over Notre Dame was fun for all of us Irish haters BUT, this club beat Georgia Tech by 1, FSU by 4, UNC by 5, and Syracuse by 8. The Virginia Tech win took a bit of a hit with the Hokies losing to the Rambling Wreck. If they win out, they are fine because they have the ACC title game against Clemson. There is nothing to worry about. My poll is scientific, damn it!
- Auburn
- Ohio State
- Georgia – UGA’s one-dimensional attack has me more worried than I thought I would be. Ohio State’s attack has proven capable of walking and talking at the same time, thus the Buckeyes jump Georgia.
- TCU – Yeah, 18 points isn’t great but the game was in Norman. Plus with the head-to-head over Okie State, how far can you drop the Frogs? Still a lot of upside with this team.
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma State
- Penn State
- UCF
- USC
- Washington
- Mississippi State
- Memphis
- Washington State
- Michigan
- Boise State
- San Diego State
- Arizona – THEY HAD 534 RUSHING YARDS AND 7 RUSHING TDS AGAINST OREGON STATE. Holy hell that isn’t even possible in the video game!
- – 25 See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
Big 12 Conference
West Virginia and Iowa State each got a look. WVU backed up their win over Iowa State with a road victory against a well coached and pesky Kansas State team. Iowa State lost for a second straight week but held their own against Okie State. The fact that ISU is now at 6-4 and four-loss teams are hard to get into any poll, as well as the Mountaineers having a head-to-head victory, makes this an easy call.
Big 12 Nominee: West Virginia
Big Ten Conference
Michigan State and Northwestern are each 7-3 but very different paths to get there. MSU is 1-2 in their last 3 with the Ohio State game being a 45 point thrashing. Northwestern is better than 1-2, a whole lot better, they are 5-0 and haven’t lost since early October. Oh, one of those five wins, was a head-to-head over MSU. Two nice wins in insane weather conditions are nice (the Michigan and PSU wins) but the Spartans also have losses to offset those narrow wins and the losses are ugly. 20 points to Notre Dame and the previously mentioned Buckeye game.
Big Ten Nominee: Northwestern
Conference USA
This league has four, FOUR teams all 7-3! Florida Atlantic, Marshall, North Texas, and UAB. Blazers are an awesome story to go bowling but has lost to North Texas, a bad Ball State team, and a worse Charlotte team. They aren’t getting ranked anytime soon. North Texas is making a second straight bowl but their lopsided losses to SMU and Iowa show they aren’t top-25 material. Marshall pushed their record to 6-1 before losing to both C-USA’s Florida teams but looked better last week against Western Kentucky. A big turn around from last year’s 3-9 Herd squad. That leaves the Owls. Kiffin has done it, folks. FAU is 6-0 in conference and hasn’t lost since September! They have wins over North Texas and Marshall and practically a lock for the title game since they host bowl-bound FIU before traveling to 1-9 Charlotte. Not sure they’ll be ranked, but I’m moving them along.
C-USA Nominee: Florida Atlantic
Mid American Conference
For those that missed it, the two best teams in the league and the two fighting to be ranked played last week. The Bobcats of Ohio dominated in-state conference foe Toledo, 38-10 to get to 8-2, the same record as the Rockets.
MAC Nominee: Ohio
Mountain West Conference
Can a third team join Boise State and SDSU? Wyoming has won three straight to get to 7-3 and Fresno State is 6-1 in their last seven games to also get to 7-3. The problem is Wyoming is a pretty ugly 0-2 against power five teams and stud QB Josh Allen is day-to-day with a shoulder injury. Fresno has the awesome win over SDSU but they are also an ugly 0-2 against power five teams. Fresno has also had an easy schedule even with those two P5 clubs. In fact, that win over SDSU are the Bulldogs’ only victory over a FBS team boasting a winning record. These two teams are lurking, but won’t get ranked this week.
Mountain West Nominee: No One
Southeastern Conference
A trio of 7-3 in South Carolina, Kentucky, and LSU that each bounced back after a loss last week. USC has the worst argument because they haven’t beaten a ranked team (unless you count NC State who wasn’t ranked at the time) AND lost a head-to-head with Kentucky. UK’s argument is similarly weak with no ranked teams slain and a total no-show in Starkville where Mississippi State dropped them like a sack of potatoes, 45-7. That leaves LSU. A few weeks ago I felt like the Auburn upset was just that, an upset, but after a 4-1 stretch in which struggling Ole Miss and Arkansas were blown out, they have to be looked at again.
SEC Nominee: LSU
Elimination Time
The above five join South Florida of the American, NC State from the ACC, Pac 12 power Stanford, the Sun Belt’s leader Troy, and that pesky Army team that keeps on winning. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…Ohio is 8-2 but they have beaten a FCS team, a bad independent in UMass, a train wreck named Kansas, and lost to Purdue badly. Flipping that Purdue game and/or not having Hampton on the slate could have convinced me, but time to say goodbye to the Bobcats. FAU is red hot in league but unfortunately it hasn’t quite undone a bad non-conference mark. The Owls went 1-3 in the non-con with two lopsided losses to Navy and Wisconsin, a narrow loss to a bad MAC team (Buffalo), and only a FCS win keeping them from starting 0-4. If the Owls keep winning, they can get ranked but it doesn’t start this week.
Bad Game(s)…The remaining eight teams all have equally bad losses, yet they have wins that counteract some of the losing. As a result this criteria fails to eliminate any teams this week.
Final Eight
Love this mix of teams as they are all 7-3 or better, all have at least one win over a power five school, and several have upset wins. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Army
- BW: Duke
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Ohio State (by 31)
- WL: at Tulane (by 4)
- LSU
- BW: Auburn
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Alabama (by 14)
- WL: at Mississippi State (by 30) or Troy
- NC State
- BW: Louisville
- WW: FCS
- BL: Clemson (by 7)
- WL: at Notre Dame (by 21)
- Northwestern
- BW: Michigan State
- WW: Bowling Green
- BL: at Wisconsin (by 9)
- WL: at Duke (by 24)
- South Florida
- BW: Temple
- WW: FCS
- BL: Houston (by 4)
- WL: N/A
- Stanford
- BW: Washington
- WW: Rice
- BL: at Washington State (by 3)
- WL: at USC (by 18)
- Troy
- BW: at LSU
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Boise State (by 11)
- WL: South Alabama (by 11)
- West Virginia
- BW: Iowa State
- WW: FCS
- BL: at TCU (by 7)
- WL: Oklahoma State (by 11)
Well they have the best record at 8-1 but the first thing that I noticed was just how bad South Florida’s schedule has been. They have zero wins over teams with a winning record and only the victory over 5-5 Temple is a W against a non losing team. I just can’t justify ranking them right now.
The next thing that caught my eye was Stanford’s huge win over Washington. That is by far the best win of this group and combined with playing a power five schedule makes Stanford a lock. I’m not sure where I will put them but I know they are ranked.
Finally Army’s schedule has to be called out. If I’m going to do it to USF, then it has to be said about Army. They have zero wins over a team .500 or better. 8-2 is awesome, but not good enough to be ranked due to the level of competition.
That leaves five teams trying to join Stanford as a ranked club. I’m going to look at the level of competition by each school’s opponents W-L overall and in the respective contender’s wins.
- LSU Wins: 29-41 (.414)
- LSU Overall: 54-46 (.540)
- NC State Wins: 36-33 (.522)
- NC State Overall: 60-39 (.606)
- Northwestern Wins: 29-42 (.408)
- Northwestern Overall: 51-50 (.505)
- Troy Wins: 30-46 (.395)
- Troy Overall: 42-54 (.438)
- West Virginia Wins: 22-48 (.314)
- West Virginia Overall: 45-55 (.450)
Here are the winning percentage rankings in wins:
- NC State
- LSU
- Northwestern
- Troy
- West Virginia
Here are the winning percentage rankings overall:
- NC State
- LSU
- Northwestern
- West Virginia
- Troy
And the composite:
- NC State: 1.0
- LSU: 2.0
- Northwestern: 3.0
- Troy: 4.5
- West Virginia: 4.5
That is pretty definitive, NC State needs to be ranked, LSU’s upset over Auburn finally has enough support to be ranked, and the trio of Northwestern, Troy, and West Virginia are rooting for some more upsets. As for the pecking order, Stanford has a better offense and defense than NC State. Between the Wolfpack and LSU, NC State is 0-1 against the SEC while LSU is 4-2. LSU also has that win over Auburn, better than any win NC State has. That means the Pack will be going in at 25th. Between Stanford and the Tigers, I’m going with the team that is finishing drives with touchdowns (Stanford) in order to get the most out of an up-and-down offense.
Final Verdict:
23. Stanford
24. LSU
25. NC State
League Breakdown:
5 – Pac 12, SEC
4 – Big Ten
3 – ACC, Big 12
2 – American, Mountain West
1 – Independent
Big Ten and Counting 