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2017 Week 11 Poll

So I made a promise a few weeks ago when I had Iowa ranked and they lost that I wouldn’t put them back in again.  Since then they’ve gone 2-0 and mollywhopped Ohio State.  Am I going to have to break a promise?

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (56)
  2. Georgia (5)
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Clemson
  5. Oklahoma – Who has had worse luck?  Charlie Brown kicking the football, the Washington Generals versus the Harlem Globetrotters, or Okie State in Bedlam?
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Miami – So Wisconsin, when people say you need style points, they mean do what the Canes did to Virginia Tech.
  8. TCU
  9. Washington
  10. Auburn
  11. Ohio State
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Michigan State – 11 spot jump for a super-duper strange rain delay game that was won on a field goal at home?  Hmm, that doesn’t quite compute.
  14. UCF
  15. USC
  16. Penn State
  17. Virginia Tech
  18. Mississippi State
  19. Washington State – Is Stanford good?  Is Washington State good?  Is the Pac 12 bad or so stacked they just keep beating each other?  Wazzu’s narrow win just created more questions for me than answers.
  20. Memphis
  21. Michigan
  22. South Florida
  23. West Virginia
  24. Iowa State
  25. Iowa – Not saying I’m going to rank them, but, if you are going to have both ISU and Iowa ranked, shouldn’t you have the Hawkeyes ahead of the Cyclones since Iowa won?

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Clemson
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Wisconsin – So I know their quarterback play is less than stellar but based on OSU’s defensive collapse at Iowa, and Penn State’s defense struggling against OSU and MSU, I think it is clear the Badgers have the best defense in the league.  That has to count for something, right?
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Washington
  8. TCU
  9. Miami
  10. Auburn
  11. Oklahoma State
  12. Ohio State
  13. Penn State
  14. UCF
  15. USC
  16. Virginia Tech
  17. Mississippi State
  18. Michigan State
  19. Memphis
  20. Washington State
  21. Iowa State
  22. – 25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

Big Ten Conference

No, I didn’t forget the other leagues, they just didn’t have multiple teams.  Anyway, what do you do with Iowa – who just pulled off a big upset, Michigan – who has ripped off back-to-back 20+ point wins and is up to 7-2, and Northwestern – who has won four straight including victories over MSU and Iowa.

To me I need to trust my gut and eliminate Iowa.  I’ve said it before in this poll that an upset shouldn’t outweigh a ton of other evidence and that is Iowa’s offense stinks.  They had a great game plan for Ohio State but there is a great chance they implode next weekend in Madison.  As for Northwestern, they keep having overtime games and while that is exciting, does needing OT against Iowa and Nebraska really make you a top 25 team?

Big Ten Nominee: Michigan

Mid American Conference

Well, well, well, we have a story developing.  Toledo and Northern Illinois kept being compared and I kept going with NIU.  Well Toledo just beat Northern.  But wait, there’s more!  The Ohio Bobcats are now 7-2 and might get some looks and they play Toledo next!  The MAC, like always, is a blast this year.  Even though Ohio had a hiccup with Central Michigan, the fact that they have a power five win (okay, fine it was Kansas) is intriguing.  The problem for Ohio is, Toledo doesn’t have any hiccups, just a loss to a really freaking good Miami team in south beach.

MAC Nominee: Toledo

Mountain West Conference

Just like the MAC the Mountain West always seems to be a fun league.  Boise State and SDSU both have a good shot at being ranked.  Since losing back-to-back games, SDSU has allowed just 14 points.  They also have two power five wins and a win over that nice NIU team.  Boise has a bit of a trump card thanks to having a head-to-head win over SDSU.  I went with the Aztecs last week and the San Jose State drubbing will keep them in but I’m going to add Boise.  They are up to 7-2 and have now ripped off five straight victories.

Mountain West Nominee: Boise State and San Diego State

Pacific 12 Conference

A pair of teams ranked a week ago that lost were looked at again.  First up is Stanford, who came up short against Wazzu in a game in which they had zero passing working and the lingering impact of a banged up Bryce Love.  Arizona had a terrible first half before Khalil Tate and company could make things interesting against USC.

Each are 6-3 but Stanford’s wins aren’t as impressive and Arizona obliterated Washington State a week ago.  Until I see a 100% healthy Bryce Love, I have a hard time putting the Cardinal in my poll.

Pac 12 Nominee: Arizona

Southeastern Conference

All the teams that were either lowly ranked a week ago or considered being ranked lost.  I’m putting LSU in the same category as Iowa with Auburn being an upset and 6-3 with shaky offense not being good enough to be ranked.

SEC Nominee: No one

Elimination Time

The above five teams join (in conference name alphabetically) South Florida, NC State, West Virginia, Army, and Troy to form a master list of ten teams all vying for the last four spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…I like the improvement NC State has had this year but they are 6-3 with their marquee wins over Florida State and Louisville becoming more and more irrelevant each week.  Toss in a FCS win and they are actually 5-3 without any win as impressive as Iowa or LSU – two other teams not ranked.

Bad Game(s)…Army and Toledo have a lot of wins but just not very tough schedules.  While each have racked up enough wins for me to overlook an FCS team, it calls into question what they have done against good teams.  Army lost by 31 to Ohio State, not to mention losing to Tulane.  Toledo lost by 22 to Miami.  Both are really good teams but at 7-2 and 7-1 with no real marquee wins AND bad losses, just can’t see them getting ranked yet.

Final Seven

A really interesting mix here as there is an AAC team, a Big 12 team, a Big Ten team, two Mountain West clubs, a Pac 12 member, and a Sun Belt player.  For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Arizona
    • BW: Washington State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Utah (by 6)
    • WL: at USC (by 14)
  • Boise State
    • BW: at SDSU
    • WW: at BYU
    • BL: at Washington State (by 3)
    • WL: Virginia (by 19)
  • Michigan
    • BW: Minnesota (?)
    • WW: Cincinnati
    • BL: Michigan State (by 4)
    • WL: at Penn State (by 29)
  • San Diego State
    • BW: Stanford
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: Fresno State (by 24)
  • South Florida
    • BW: Temple
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Houston (by 4)
    • WL: N/A
  • Troy
    • BW: LSU
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Boise State (by 11)
    • WL: South Alabama (by 11)
  • West Virginia
    • BW: Iowa State
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at TCU (by 7)
    • WL: Oklahoma State (by 11)

The first thing that immediately got my attention was South Florida’s terrible schedule.  We assume that an American team would still have a good schedule but the Bulls have played nobody.  They have yet to beat a FBS team with a winning record.  If Army and Toledo were eliminated for similar reasons, USF has to go to.

The next thing for me is West Virginia’s easy schedule.  Yes they finally beat a team with a winning record last Saturday but it was Iowa State, at home, by four, in a game they were shut out in the second half.  They don’t pass my personal eye test yet.

That leaves five teams for four spots.  I’m tempted to eliminate Troy because they have a head-to-head loss to Boise State but so does SDSU and each of them have wins over power five schools, something Boise lacks so doing it quick and dirty would be unwise.  At the end of the day I’m going to eliminate Troy but like I said, not because of the Boise game.  Losing at home to a team like South Alabama is just not what ranked teams do.  Troy can get ranked at some point but this week, with this collection of teams, that defeat to the Jags looms a little bit bigger than say Michigan having a clunker in Happy Valley.

Final Verdict:

22. Michigan
23. Boise State
24. San Diego State
25. Arizona

League Breakdown

5 – Big Ten
4 – Big 12, Pac 12, SEC
3 – ACC
2 – American, Mountain West
1 – Independent

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