Can I just tell you how glad I am not to have West Virginia ranked for weeks? Last week when I noticed their opponent’s W-L in their wins was just 8-28 it was a massive red flag. Then they got blowed out by Oklahoma State and I felt super duper smart. Not-so-humble brag!
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (59)
- Georgia (2)
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Penn State – I’m fine with them falling to here but still in contention…just as a thought experiment though, what if they hadn’t collapsed but instead the game was a back and forth affair? What if they mounted a big comeback and missed a last second field goal? I think part of the thinking is, great teams don’t blow 15 point fourth quarter leads.
- Oklahoma – You friendly reminder that OU did beat the Buckeyes earlier this year…
- Miami
- TCU
- Oklahoma State
- Washington
- Virginia Tech
- Iowa State
- UCF
- Auburn
- USC – Anyone else rooting for the long shot title game of Iowa State vs USC to ultimately answer the question, “who wore it better?”
- Stanford
- LSU
- NC State
- Mississippi State
- Memphis
- Arizona
- Michigan State
- Washington State – Hmm, what will it take for them to not be ranked anymore?
Dropped out: South Florida (17), West Virginia (22, uh duh!)
Receiving Votes: South Florida, Michigan, Toledo, West Virginia (13 idiots have AP ballots), South Carolina, SDSU, Army, Boise State
Josh’s Top 25:
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Penn State
- Notre Dame – Were all the passing questions answered? No. Were enough of them? Yes. Thus the jump up into the top 10.
- Wisconsin
- Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma
- Washington
- TCU
- Virginia Tech
- Miami
- Auburn
- Iowa State – WOAH man, that’s a 9 spot jump. That needs some reasoning. You got it, dude. Two top-five wins. Let’s review the teams they are jumping from last week’s poll: UCF hasn’t faced a ranked foe, Michigan State lost, NC State lost, USC is 1-2 versus ranked teams with none of them being top 5, Stanford is 1-1 versus ranked teams with neither being top 5, Texas A&M lost, and Memphis has played just one ranked team: Navy.
- UCF
- USC
- Stanford – This is more of me assuming Bryce Love will be back after sitting out the Oregon State game. If anything is seriously wrong with him (haven’t found any news outlet claiming that) Stanford probably isn’t a ranked team.
- – 25 See Below – Final Verdict
See Below, What the Hell is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Memphis was ranked 23rd a week ago. They are in for sure but I don’t know where yet. I also looked at South Florida’s resume, SMU’s CV, Navy’s cover letter, and Houston’s transcript. Navy is 5-2 but have lost their last two yet their FAU win is looking better and better but at the end of the day they don’t climb back in.
SMU is 6-2 and in the thick of the division race but they lost a head-to-head with Houston AND have a 20 point loss to TCU. A nice season but not worthy of getting ranked right now. Houston has an ever increasing nice win over Arizona, SMU, and now South Florida but their 3 losses don’t help and that dreadful 45-17 game at Tulsa is an albatross around their neck currently. Ultimately I’m going with the Bulls to still get considered because they are 7-1, Quinton Flowers is a legit star, and the Houston win was a freaking miracle outcome based on the EXTREMELY long fourth down conversion. Kind of felt like more luck in Houston’s way than anything else to me.
AAC Nominees: Memphis (ranked), USF (considering)
Atlantic Coast Conference
NC State was ranked a week ago. Based on their resume they face a good shot of remaining so. No one else from the ACC was considered.
ACC Nominee: NC State
Big 12 – No one
Big Ten
Michigan State was ranked a week ago and was knocked off in overtime. Michigan bounced back from the Penn State game to beat Rutgers. Northwestern’s upset of MSU got them to 5-3 and Iowa winning Floyd of Rosedale, I’m KIDDING! Although Iowa did beat Iowa State….
Anyway, I need to see more from Brandon Peters and this new look Michigan team than what they did against Rutgers to really considered again. Meanwhile Northwestern’s three losses are all pretty ugly. 41-17 at Duke, 33-24 at Wisconsin, and 31-7 vs Penn State.
Big Ten Nominee: Michigan State
Conference USA
Two fun stories…FAU is red hot and winners of four straight to get to 5-3. UT San Antonio has bounced back from a mid season swoon to get to 5-2 and have a win over a power five team (winless Baylor). Neither are worthy of being ranked, but thought I would pass on the good news for the Owls and Roadrunners (beep-beep).
C-USA Nominee: No one
Mid American Conference
There is just no separation between Toledo and Northern Illinois. Each have won four straight to get to 7-1 for the Rockets and 6-2 for the Huskies. I love Toledo’s balance and overall offensive scheme. The problem is NIU has played a bit harder schedule. NIU also has a much better defense. Now I know playing Miami is no cakewalk and giving up 52 points may have thrown off their numbers. So I ran their ppg without that in there and it is 21.57 points per, still well above NIU’s 18 points per. Because of that superior D, I’m going to keep with Northern.
MAC Nominee: Northern Illinois
Mountain West
My nominee from last week, Colorado State, got smoked by Air Force. So now I have to re-open it all and look at Boise State and SDSU. On the surface it is simple because Boise has the head-to-head but in reality it is tougher because of the Aztecs’ much hardier schedule. Boise is 0-2 against power five teams, SDSU is 2-0. Boise’s second best win is Wyoming and third best is Utah State. SDSU’s third best win is that Northern Illinois team I like so much. I know this is going to piss off the good people of Idaho but the scope of the resume for SDSU is still stronger, even with Boise beating them.
Mountain West Nominee: San Diego State
Pacific 12 Conference
Washington State was ranked last week but are 1-2 in their last 3 with the two losses by 34 at Cal and 21 at Arizona. It’s been a long time since that USC win and frankly the Trojans aren’t looking as hot as they used to, either. Young blood Arizona has ripped off four straight and are a completely different team with Khalil Tate. The thing is though, I just can’t shake how good Wazzu can look as well as totally ignore the very nice USC win and the Boise win that is growing in impressiveness.
Pac 12 Nominee: Arizona and Washington State
Southeastern Conference
LSU was ranked a week ago and based on having the bye week, they won’t slip out of the polls. The reason they aren’t in the top 20 is I’m not 100% sure where to put them just yet. Texas A&M was also ranked last week but they were creamed at home by Mississippi State. Even with the 21 point blowout their three losses are still by an average of just ten points, not bad considering one of those opponents was Alabama. The bigger issue is who they have beaten in their five wins. One is an FCS team, one is a Sun Belt team, one is reeling Florida, and one is struggling Arkansas. Only the South Carolina win points to a team worthy of being ranked and that just isn’t enough based on the other wins as well as three losses now.
The SEC didn’t just stop there. South Carolina, Kentucky, and Mississippi State are also up for consideration. South Carolina has won three straight to get to 6-2 which is remarkable due to some of the injuries they have had. Unfortunately they have head-to-head losses to fringe rankable SEC teams Kentucky and Texas A&M. They also have just one win over a team with a winning record and that is NC State back in week one (Louisiana Tech is currently 4-4). They are taking out the trash and racking up wins which is commendable but they aren’t one of the 25 best teams in the nation because of stringing together soft wins.
Speaking of soft wins, Kentucky has beaten no one outside of South Carolina and don’t even have style points thanks to blowouts. Look at some of these wins: Southern Miss by 7, Eastern Kentucky by 11, Eastern Michigan by 4, Missouri by 6, and Tennessee by 3. Six wins and a bowl is nice, but they aren’t top 25. By default this leaves the fightin’ cowbells. Yes they have some ugly losses but they also have blowout victories over LSU, Kentucky, and now Texas A&M.
SEC Nominee: LSU (ranked) and Mississippi State (considering)
Sun Belt Conference
Don’t look now but the Arkansas State RedWolves are coming in hot yet again and pushing for another league title (because they win it every freaking year). They have won four straight to get to 6-2 (4-0) but the Troy Trojans are hanging tough. Thanks in part to that monumental upset of LSU, Troy also has a 6-2 (3-1) mark. Neither resume is quite good enough to be ranked but like C-USA, I just thought I would show that I am crossing all my t’s and dotting all my i’s for this poll.
Sun Belt Nominee: No One
Elimination Time
The above 10 teams join Army to form a master list of 11 clubs all vying for the last seven spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…Army was off this week and remains at 6-2. Unfortunately they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record and that is combined with beating a FCS team. Great for them to make a second straight bowl but this isn’t a team worthy of being ranked.
Bad Game(s)…I love SDSU’s resume but there is something I just can’t overlook right now, the 27-3 loss to Fresno State. I know Fresno is improved but SDSU had just been humbled by Boise State. Instead of showing a lot of heart and having the talent to back it up, the Aztecs laid an egg. Still love their wins and they can easily get ranked again but beating three-win Hawaii doesn’t undo the back-to-back losses, especially the one to Fresno.
Final Nine
Whew, lots of teams still with good arguments. Since Memphis and LSU are going to be ranked for sure, I’m going to whittle down the maybes. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Arizona
- BW: Washington State
- WW: FCS
- BL: Houston (by 3)
- WL: Utah (by 6)
- Michigan State
- BW: at Michigan
- WW: Bowling Green
- BL: at Northwestern (by 8, OT)
- WL: Notre Dame (by 20)
- Mississippi State
- BW: LSU
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at Auburn (by 39)
- NC State
- BW: at Florida State (?)
- WW: FCS
- BL: South Carolina (by 7)
- WL: at Notre Dame (by 21)
- Northern Illinois
- BW: at Nebraska
- WW: FCS
- BL: Boston College (by 3) or at SDSU (by 6)
- WL: N/A
- South Florida
- BW: at Tulane (?) or Temple (?) or Illinois (?)
- WW: FCS
- BL: Houston (by 4)
- WL: N/A
- Washington State
- BW: USC
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at Cal (by 34) or at Arizona (by 21)
My immediate reaction is holy crap USF’s schedule has been easy. Their best win is either Big Ten cupcake Illinois or a 3-5 conference foe. Yes they are 7-1 and yes they have a great quarterback but all these other teams have clear-cut best wins and have played schedules with some meat on them.
Next out is Northern Illinois. Still like what this team is doing but with their MAC schedule they really can’t afford to have two losses, even if they were highly competitive games against bowl-bound teams (probably, BC is at five wins). Not helping is the FCS win when several of these clubs haven’t even faced a lower-level club.
With those two cuts I am down to five from the previous “maybe” group and the two locks in LSU and Memphis to find my final seven teams. I’m going to keep this simple and just do opponent’s win-loss and compare the winning percentages.
- Arizona Wins: 26-25 (.509) – Rank: 3
- Arizona Overall: 35-32 (.522) – Rank: 5
- LSU Wins: 20-29 (.408) – Rank: 7
- LSU Overall: 32-33 (.492) – Rank: 7
- Memphis Wins: 27-28 (.491) – Rank: 6
- Memphis Overall: 34-28 (.548) – Rank: 4
- Michigan State Wins: 24-24 (.500) – Rank: 4
- Michigan State Overall: 36-28 (.563) – Rank: 3
- Miss St Wins: 27-22 (.551) – Rank: 1
- Miss St Overall: 41-24 (.631) – Rank: 1
- NC State Wins: 27-23 (.540) – Rank: 2
- NC State Overall: 40-26 (.606) – Rank: 2
- WSU Wins: 29-30 (.492) – Rank: 5
- WSU Overall: 39-37 (.513) – Rank: 6
Average ranking in this group:
- Arizona: 4
- LSU: 7
- Memphis: 5
- Michigan State: 3.5
- Miss State: 1
- NC State: 2
- Washington State: 5.5
It makes sense, after all, Arizona beat WSU and Mississippi State beat LSU. I think I’m just going to follow this as my guideline. The one surprise was NC State. Despite no real eye-popping victory thanks to Louisville and FSU sliding, they are knocking off teams quietly putting together some nice seasons, Marshall for instance, is 6-2.
Final Verdict:
19. Mississippi State
20. NC State
21. Michigan State
22. Arizona
23. Memphis
24. Washington State
25. LSU
League Breakdown:
5 – SEC, Pac 12
4 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten
2 – American
1 – Independent
Big Ten and Counting 