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2017 Week 9 Poll

So for the second time this season, I take a homer flyer on Iowa (albeit with some evidence to back it up) and they promptly lose.  Not sure Iowa can get back in the rankings even if they win out with the style of play they are giving us.  Anyway, other than the Hawkeyes breaking my heart, the greatest poll on the internet is back.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (61)
  2. Penn State
  3. Georgia
  4. TCU
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Ohio State
  7. Clemson
  8. Miami
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Oklahoma
  11. Oklahoma State
  12. Washington
  13. Virginia Tech
  14. NC State
  15. Washington State
  16. Michigan State
  17. South Florida – Kind of strange to knock them down a place just because a really good option team in Tulane gave them some fits.  Green Wave are having a nice year and USF survived an obvious trap game.
  18. UCF
  19. Auburn
  20. Stanford
  21. USC
  22. West Virginia
  23. LSU
  24. Memphis
  25. Iowa State – YES!!!

Dropped Out: Michigan (19)

Receiving Votes: Texas A&M, Michigan, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Toledo, Marshall

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Penn State
  3. TCU
  4. Georgia
  5. Ohio State
  6. Clemson
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Washington
  11. Notre Dame – Bumped them up six spots but their lack of balance on offense is a bit of a concern and frankly, I just don’t think very highly of USC.  Still some great games for the Irish ahead to make their push, starting with NC State next weekend.
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. Miami
  14. Auburn
  15. South Florida
  16. Washington State
  17. UCF
  18. Michigan State
  19. NC State
  20. USC
  21. Stanford – I, unlike the real pollsters remember that the Trojans humiliated the Cardinal and will still keep USC ranked above them, especially since USC is 6-2 while Stanford is 5-2
  22. Texas A&M
  23. -25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Just a pair of teams currently on a hot streak to be considered: 6-1 Memphis and 5-2 SMU.  Have to go with the Tigers though.  They have a power five win, beat a good Memphis team, and have a common opponent victory against Houston, a team the Ponies lost to.

AAC Nominee: Memphis

Atlantic Coast Conference

Still can’t fully write off Georgia Tech and Louisville yet.  Tech had a narrow victory over Wake but it got them to 4-2 and their two losses are by a combined two points.  The Cards got a narrow win at reeling Florida State to get them to 5-3.  I’m not sure either will be ranked but with Tech’s average margin of defeat being 1.0 and UL’s being 14.3, I’ll go with the Rambling Wreck.

ACC Nominee: Georgia Tech

Big 12

West Virginia barely missed out on being ranked a week ago.  Thanks to them winning and Michigan, SDSU, and Iowa all losing they will have to be in, right?  Now its time for one of the best stories in college football this year: the Cyclones.  Each team is worthy of having their resume put up against the rest of the nation.

Big 12 Nominee: Iowa State and West Virginia

Mid American Conference

Toledo and Northern Illinois are at it again, folks.  NIU is 5-2 with their losses by a combined 9 points (vastly improved BC, currently struggling but still a bowl team SDSU).  Toledo is 6-1 but didn’t play as tough a non conference schedule.  Last week I went with Northern thanks to playing SDSU tough.  With the Aztecs’ struggles, I was tempted to switch to Toledo but then I looked at how they are doing against the MAC.  The Rocket’s average margin of victory against MAC teams is 17.33.  NIU’s is a tad better at 17.66 thanks to a pair of 3 touchdown blowouts.

MAC Nominee: Northern Illinois

Mountain West

Whelp, we had a good run, SDSU.  Now getting a crack at being ranked is Colorado State, Boise State, and Fresno State.  All are 5-2, all are 3-0 in the league, and all six combined losses are to power-five teams.  YET, the Rams knocked off Oregon State.  Sure, they are the worst team in the Pac 12 and probably only Kansas saving them from being the worst power five team in the nation, but that is still a win that neither Boise nor Fresno can match.

MTW Nominee: Colorado State

Pacific 12 Conference

Both Arizona teams are playing better, but is either playing well enough to be ranked?  I looked and I don’t think so……but……Arizona State’s win over highly ranked Washington at least allows them to have their resume considered.  Yes, the Wildcats have a better record, but they lack as big a win as ASU.  Plus a common opponent is Utah.  Utes beat ‘Zona but lost to Sparky.

Pac 12 Nominee: Arizona State

Southeastern Conference

South Carolina, Kentucky, and Mississippi State are all 5-2.  LSU is 6-2.  Some combo has to be ranked, right?  Well UK is out first as they have a head to head loss to MSU, by 38!  Carolina was off last week so they don’t get an opportunity to impress me post Deebo Samuel injury so just like last week they are also out.

That leaves LSU and Miss State.  Tigers have the better record and have ripped off 3 straight wins but MSU has the head-to-head victory.  Worse, the game wasn’t a tight one.  MSU dominated, winning by 30.  At the end of the day, I’m going to put both names forward, but I’m leaning LSU’s way due to the caliber of athletes.

SEC Nominee: LSU and Mississippi State

Elimination Time

The above nine join Army, Marshall, and Michigan to form a master list of 12 teams vying for the final three spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Army is 6-2, going bowling, and a great story.  But they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record and they have a FCS win boosting the overall total.  Knights go marching out.  Due to all that weather earlier in the season, Tech has only played six games and are 4-2.  One of those wins is, you guessed it, a FCS team.  3-2 won’t get you ranked.  Colorado State’s two losses aren’t miserable (rival Colorado and at Alabama) but neither game was close AND they have a FCS win taking them from 4-2 to 5-2.  Ciao, Colorado State.

Bad Game(s)…Yeah, this is going to be tough for Mississippi State to overcome if they don’t keep winning.  Their two losses, Georgia and Auburn, would be fine if they were close but they were by 28 and 39.  Ugly.  Michigan also falters here.  The offense is atrocious but now the defense took a big hit to reputation in their 42-13 hammering by Penn State.  Arizona State will join MSU and UM as teams that can’t get past this criteria.  Unlike the others they don’t have a massive blowout, but they do have 3 losses, all by 7 to 10 points.  They were the team with the most losses I considered and that really stood out, especially with SDSU and Texas Tech – teams that have beaten ASU –  taking steps back.

Final SIx

From 12 to six as I search for my 23rd, 24th and 25th ranked teams. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Iowa State
    • BW: at Oklahoma
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Iowa (by 3, OT)
    • WL: Texas (by 10)
  • LSU
    • BW: Auburn
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: Miss State (by 30) or Troy
  • Marshall
    • BW: at Middle Tennessee (?)
    • WW: at Charlotte
    • BL: at NC State (by 17)
    • WL: N/A
  • Memphis
    • BW: Navy or UCLA
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: at UCF (by 27)
  • Northern Illinois
    • BW: at Nebraska
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Boston College (by 3)
    • WL: at SDSU (by 6)
  • West Virginia
    • BW: Texas Tech
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Virginia Tech/TCU (both by 7)
    • WL: N/A

For yet another week, Marshall stands out as a team winning a lot of games but just no quality opponents yet.  They’re out.  Northern is in a similar boat.  Winning at Lincoln is really impressive most years.  Not this season.  Combined with SDSU’s recent struggles, NIU can’t hang their hat on competitive losses against a ranked club and a ACC team.

So four teams left for three spots.  Let’s look at opponent’s records in wins and overall.

  • ISU Wins: 19-17
  • ISU Overall: 26-24
  • LSU Wins: 18-27
  • LSU Overall: 28-31
  • Memphis Wins: 23-19
  • Memphis Overall: 29-19
  • WVU Wins: 8-28
  • WVU Overall: 21-29

So one of those is not like the other and that is…WHO HAS WEST VIRGINIA BEATEN???  I thought this was their week, but nope, beating ECU, Delaware State, and Kansas is killing the Mountaineers as they try to get ranked.

As for the final order, I think that is pretty clear.  LSU’s wins are 9 games below .500 and overall they have still played a soft schedule.  Memphis may have faced some smaller name schools but all of them are actually winning.  Iowa State sits comfortably in the middle.

Final Verdict:

23. Memphis
24. Iowa State
25. LSU

League Breakdown:

5 – SEC
4 – ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12
3 – American
1 – Independent

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