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2017 Week 7 Poll

The greatest poll on the internet returns after an action packed week that had a very annoying team named Florida lose and oh, wait, never mind…I didn’t have them ranked.  Boom!

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (43)
  2. Clemson (18)
  3. Penn State
  4. Georgia
  5. Washington
  6. TCU
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Washington State
  9. Ohio State
  10. Auburn – People do realize the only tight game Clemson has been in this year was against these guys, right?
  11. Miami
  12. Oklahoma – Thanks for helping Iowa’s strength of schedule, Iowa State!  Oh, that doesn’t matter?…And Iowa can’t make the playoffs?  Well, that’s a shame.
  13. USC
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Michigan
  18. South Florida
  19. San Diego State
  20. NC State
  21. Michigan State – Notre Dame fans must be arguing……uh, shouldn’t we be higher?
  22. UCF
  23. Stanford – If you don’t trust one team and a team beats the team you don’t trust, why rank the team that just beat the un-trustworthy team?  Follow all that?
  24. Texas Tech
  25. Navy

Dropped: Louisville (17), Utah (20), Florida (21), West Virginia (23)

Receiving Votes: Georgia Tech, West Virginia, Louisville, Utah, LSU, Florida, Kentucky (WHA….?), Iowa State, Texas A&M, Memphis

Josh’s Top 25:

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Washington
  4. Penn State
  5. TCU
  6. Georgia
  7. Ohio State
  8. Wisconsin
  9. Auburn
  10. Oklahoma State
  11. Washington State
  12. Oklahoma – IF…and that’s a big if…they get their defense figured out, their offense is still ridiculously scary.
  13. USC
  14. Virginia Tech
  15. Miami
  16. Michigan – IF…and that’s a big if…they get their offense figured out, their defense is still ridiculously scary.
  17. South Florida
  18. San Diego State
  19. Notre Dame
  20. UCF
  21. NC State
  22. Houston
  23. – 25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Navy and Memphis are a combined 9-1 on the season and logical teams to get another look.  Memphis has the UCLA win but were demolished by UCF.  Since I use bad losses at the end to eliminate teams, I know the Tigers won’t go too far.  Therefore I’ll go with 5-0 Navy, despite zero games against a power-five team.

AAC Nominee: Navy

Atlantic Coast Conference

Louisville still has Lamar Jackson and were ranked a week ago so they automatically get a second look.  Joining them is Georgia Tech and Virginia.  Tech is 3-1 and playing some good offense but they have that horrible collapse against Tennessee, who stinks, wins against two (currently) dreadful ACC teams, and a FCS win.  They’re out.

That leaves the pesky Hoos at 4-1 and a more sure thing of Louisville at 4-2.  Virginia may have the better record but they do not have the better resume.  UL has beaten two power-five teams and both losses are to nationally ranked teams (Clemson and NC State).  Virginia has beaten just one power-five team and their loss to Indiana doesn’t compare to UL’s strength of schedule.

ACC Nominee: Louisville

Big 12

West Virginia was ranked last week so they get the automatic second look.  Also getting glances are Texas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State.  KSU’s two losses (Vandy and Texas) are immediately disqualifying.  West Virginia is also out.  They may have the toughest schedule (both losses to ranked teams) but they also have just one power-five win: Kansas.

Texas has beaten Iowa State, but also lost to Maryland and USC.  Iowa State has beaten Oklahoma, but also lost to Texas and Iowa.  UM isn’t ranked, USC is good but not great, Texas is okay, and Iowa is un-ranked.  Despite some nice play from both, their identical 3-2 marks just aren’t good enough.  That leaves the 4-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Big 12 Nominee: Texas Tech

Big Ten

Michigan State is the obvious answer but just to cross my t’s and dot my i’s, I looked for a second at Purdue and Iowa.  Boilermakers’ 3-2 start is nice and a sign of progress but they lack an eye-popping win.  Iowa’s big win over Illinois got them to 4-2 but they have an anemic offense against good defenses.  Like I expected, Michigan State easily moves on.

Big Ten Nominee: Michigan State

Mid American Conference

Last year’s MAC darling Western Michigan won a 7 OT thriller to get to 4-2 and Toledo is sitting pretty at 4-1.  Unfortunately both lack a power-five win and each has puffed up their record with a FCS foe.  They are on my radar and if they keep winning I’ll look for a way to work them in, but not quite yet.

MAC Nominee: No One

Pacific 12 Conference

Three teams with each four wins got a second look this week: Utah (auto), Oregon, and Stanford.  I still like UO but with all the injuries and getting mollywhopped by Washington State on Saturday, they are in no condition to be ranked.  As for the head-to-head, Stanford did knock off Utah.  Honestly, I don’t love either team, but with the win in Salt Lake, Stanford at least gets a shot to compare their resume nationally.

Pac 12 Nominee: Stanford

Southeastern Conference

Kentucky is 5-1 so FINE, I’ll look.  South Carolina also looked good against Arkansas so I gave them a second look.  Oh, what’s this, a head-to-head win for Kentucky over South Carolina?  Well that was easy.

SEC Nominee: Kentucky

Elimination Time

The above six teams join Marshall, Army, Colorado State, and Troy to form a master list of ten teams all vying for the final three spots in my poll.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Colorado State and Army have each won two straight to get to 4-2 but neither have beaten a power-five team and both have a FCS team helping their overall record.  Rams and Knights boogie out of here.

Bad Game(s)…I think Louisville could survive their two losses if they had been closer or they had beaten anybody of note.  26 points to Clemson and 14 to NC State are two duds.  Two duds to such a degree that Louisville’s average margin of defeat is 20 points right now with very little done to offset it.  Fly away Papa John’s Birds.

Final Seven

From ten to seven as I search for my 23rd, 24th and 25th ranked teams. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Kentucky
    • BW: at South Carolina
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Florida (by 1)
    • WL: N/A
  • Marshall
    • BW: at Cincinnati
    • WW: at Charlotte
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: at NC State (by 17)
  • Michigan State
    • BW: at Michigan
    • WW: Bowling Green
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: Notre Dame (by 20)
  • Navy
    • BW: Tulane
    • WW: at FAU
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Texas Tech
    • BW: at Houston
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Oklahoma State (by 7)
    • WL: N/A
  • Troy
    • BW: at LSU
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: at Boise State (by 11)
    • WL: N/A
  • Stanford
    • BW: at Utah
    • WW: Rice
    • BL: at SDSU (by 3)
    • WL: at USC (by 18)

First thing that jumped out at me is just how weak Marshall’s four wins are.  Good start to a bounce back season for Doc Holliday’s Herd but not worthy of being ranked.  Next is Navy’s schedule.  I love that they are 5-0 and playing extremely well on offense but they just haven’t beaten anybody of note yet.

Positive things that caught my eye were Michigan State knocking off Michigan and Texas Tech knocking off Houston (a team I have ranked).  I feel good about both of them being ranked so I’m going to set them aside for now.

To find that third team I’m going to look at FBS opponents’ overall win-loss

  • Kentucky: 13-13 (.500)
  • Troy: 12-11 (.522)
  • Stanford: 21-12 (.636)

Well that is pretty definitive, isn’t it?  Stanford should clearly join Michigan State and Texas Tech in the rankings.  I think because of strength of schedule, Tech should be 25th and despite being the last team in, Stanford’s offense is more trustworthy than MSU’s so I’ll take the Cardinal above them.

Final Verdict:

23. Stanford
24. Michigan State
25. Texas Tech

League Breakdown:

5 – Big 10
4 – ACC, Big 12, Pac 12
3 – AAC, SEC
1 – Independent, Mountain West

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