2017 Week 5 Poll

It’s back folks!  The greatest poll on the internet!  After four long weeks of letting teams impress me I finally join the ranks of the silly real polls and start putting pen to paper.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (52) – Woof, I think they read some clippings about Vanderbilt having a prayer in that game.
  2. Clemson (8)
  3. Oklahoma (1)
  4. Penn State
  5. USC – Am I seriously the only one who thinks this team is a bit overrated?
  6. Washington
  7. Georgia
  8. Michigan
  9. TCU
  10. Wisconsin
  11. Ohio State
  12. Virginia Tech – They host Clemson this Saturday.  I’m not sure I’ve been more excited to watch some Hokie ball since their 0-0 regulation final against Wake Forest a few years ago.
  13. Auburn
  14. Miami – That trip to Duke suddenly looks a bit more of a challenge than it did a month ago.
  15. Oklahoma State
  16. Washington State
  17. Louisville
  18. South Florida
  19. San Diego State
  20. Utah
  21. Florida
  22. Notre Dame
  23. West Virginia
  24. Mississippi State
  25. LSU – What if neither the Bulldogs or Tigers are any good?

Josh’s top 25:

  1. Clemson – I said last week that on a neutral site I liked Clemson a tad more.  Humiliating Vanderbilt was impressive (and a tad funny) but not enough to sway me.
  2. Alabama
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Washington – I trust Browning more than McSorley and Darnold at this point.
  5. Penn State
  6. USC
  7. TCU
  8. Georgia – Like what they are doing but still a young quarterback, I want to see them drop the hammer on a power five team that I truly believe in to become a believer.  Their 20-19 win at Notre Dame and routing Mississippi State doesn’t exactly strike me as proof of being as good as these other clubs.
  9. Ohio State
  10. Michigan
  11. Wisconsin
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. Auburn – I still kind of like this team.  Sure the O was awful at Clemson but that defense held Clemson in check.  Two straight home games to put up some style points.
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Washington State
  16. Miami – This is more speculation than proof since they are just 2-0.
  17. Louisville
  18. South Florida
  19. San Diego State
  20. West Virginia
  21. – 25 See Below – Final Verdict

See Below, What the Hell is That?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

Four teams in this league have nice records: UCF (2-0), Navy (3-0), Memphis (3-0), and SMU (3-1).  Navy has played two league games and a bad FAU team so they don’t quite stack up.  SMU’s loss to TCU is understandable, but they don’t have a good enough win to totally off-set it yet.

Memphis and UCF both have wins over power-five schools but Memphis’s was at home and their other wins (bad sun belt and FCS) don’t stack up to UCF beating Maryland on the road and knocking off a C-USA club.

AAC Nominee: UCF

Atlantic Coast Conference

Six teams got a look at from me and they aren’t the usual suspects.  Wake is 4-0, NC State is 3-1, Florida State still has a ton of talent but is 0-2, Duke is 4-0, Georgia Tech is 2-1, and Virginia is 3-1.  Wow, a lot to unpack.  Unfortunately for FSU, upside can’t make up for lacking a win so far.  I’m sure they’ll be back but they can’t be ranked right now.  Next to go is Tech.  They have the choke artist loss to Tennessee to go along with a FCS win and a Pitt win.  Have you seen Pitt so far this year?  It’s been ugly.

As for Wake, NC State, Duke, and Virginia, it is kind of a no-brainer.  Virginia is 0-1 against power five teams (despite the blowout victory at Boise State), NC State is 1-1 against power five teams, Wake is 1-0 against power five teams, and Duke is 3-0 against power five teams.  Duke’s resume thus far is legitimately strong and is clearly the best of the unranked teams in the ACC.

ACC Nominee: Duke

Big 12

Kansas State used to be ranked and Texas Tech is 3-0 but do either deserve to be in?  State’s loss to Vanderbilt looks even worse after Alabama torched them.  As for Tech, they have a win over Arizona State (who just beat Oregon) and over a good Houston team.  I think they deserve at least some consideration.

Big 12 Nominee: Texas Tech

Big Ten

I reviewed four teams this week and oddly three of them were off.  Minnesota is 3-0, Illinois is 2-1, and Northwestern is 2-1.  Of the teams that played, Iowa’s narrow loss dropped them to 3-1.  Both Illinois schools were quickly tossed.  Illinois was demolished at South Florida and Northwestern hasn’t done enough to make up for a 41-17 loss at Duke.

As for the two rivals, Minnesota has a win over a sub par MAC team, a win at a terrible Pac 12 team, and a win over a pretty good C-USA team.  Iowa has wins over a okay to good Mountain West team, a win at a not terrible Big 12 team, a win over a bowl playing C-USA team, and the Penn State game.

C-USA foes: check to Minnesota.  MAC vs Mountain West, check to Iowa.  Oregon State vs Iowa State, check to Iowa…barely.  Playing a top ten team down to the wire, check to Iowa.  Hawks deserve to move on, despite coming up short Saturday night.

Big Ten Nominee: Iowa

Pac 12

Another six teams that have done enough in the opening month to get me to peek at their resume.  Up in the north we have Stanford, Cal, and Oregon.  Down south we have Utah, Arizona State, and Colorado.  The Buffs are immediately dismissed.  Despite being 3-1 they just lost and currently have zero wins over power five teams.

Arizona State is intriguing with narrow losses to a good SDSU team and a starting-to-look-good Texas Tech team but 2-2 won’t cut it, even with knocking off Oregon.  Speaking about Oregon, getting nationally ranked and then losing in Tempe isn’t the strongest way to remain in the polls.  Their most impressive victory is Nebraska which is saying something.  That something is, we don’t deserve to be ranked right now.

The Sun Devils aren’t the only 2-2 team to get a look.  Stanford is also 2-2 after losing to SDSU and USC before bullying UCLA this week and that’s a problem.  2-2 won’t cut it this early, especially when your best win is UCLA.  Cal’s hot start is fun but they couldn’t pull off the upset against USC.  Unfortunately North Carolina (reeling) and Ole Miss (calling women issues) isn’t as impressive as Utah’s 4-0 start.

Pac 12 Nominee: Utah

Southeastern Conference

Florida, Mississippi State, and LSU are all ranked in the real polls.  But do they deserve it?  Also getting a bit of a glance are Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and incredibly Texas A&M as all of them are 3-1.  LSU currently has one win over a power five team (Syracuse) and zero wins over FBS teams that are above .500.  Toss in a 30 point loss and you have a team not worthy of being ranked.

Texas A&M is also quick to go.  They don’t play any defense and therefore they don’t pass the eye test.  Speaking of eye-tests, UT’s narrow 17-13 win over dreadful UMass sure didn’t scream: “we deserve to be ranked this week” in my mind.

South Carolina’s win over NC State is nice and beating Mizzou gives them two wins over power five teams but if we are downgrading FSU because of injuries, than the Gamecocks are also hurt because Deebo Samuel is out and a critical piece for their club.  Kentucky has a win over South Carolina but followed that up by a sloppy game against Florida.  Ya got ten men on the field and two time outs and let Florida get off a play with no one covering the receiver?  Poorly coached equals not top twenty-five.

Hey look at that, the two teams that are really ranked are still standing.  Not for long.  Florida needed a hail Mary to beat Tennessee and Kentucky’s stupidity to win that game.  In their one true match-up of the season they were embarrassed by Michigan.  This is more about UF than MSU but get those Gators out of here.

SEC Nominee: Mississippi State

Elimination Time

The above six teams join Notre Dame and, what is this???, UT-San Antonio as the eight teams trying to get one of the last five spots in the poll.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…UTSA is 3-0 with a win over a Big 12 school but they also have a win over a bad Texas State team and a victory over a FCS club.  Beep-beep, ya out Roadrunners.  Texas Tech has two nice, or at least nice-ish wins, but their third is over a FCS team.  2-0 against FBS clubs a month into the season (probably) won’t get you ranked by me.

Bad Game(s)…Miss State, you lost by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS.  Can’t defend that plus you played a FCS team so you are hanging your hat on beating Louisiana Tech and LSU?  I mean I love the cowbells and the scrappy attitude of Stark Vegas and being like the 10th fiddle in the SEC but you can’t get ranked after a 28 point drubbing.

Final Five

From eight to five as I search for my 21st through 25th ranked teams. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Duke
    • BW: Northwestern
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Iowa
    • BW: Iowa State
    • WW: North Texas
    • BL: Penn State (by 2)
    • WL: N/A
  • Notre Dame
    • BW: at Michigan State
    • WW: Temple
    • BL: Georgia (by 1)
    • WL: N/A
  • UCF
    • BW: Maryland
    • WW: FIU
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Utah
    • BW: at Arizona
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL; N/A

First thing that jumps out is the Irish strength of schedule.  Their worst win is a decent American conference team?  They’re my top ranked team.  Then comes Duke.  I can’t ignore the 3-0 mark against power five teams as they smoked Northwestern and then had double digit margin of victory wins against Baylor and North Carolina.

That leaves Iowa, UCF, and Utah to be slotted.  I’m going to put UCF 25th because they have played the fewest games and winning at Maryland the way they did is impressive, but not enough overcome playing two fewer games than the Hawks and Utes.

As for Utah vs Iowa I think it is an easy call.  Arizona is a team no one is expecting anything from and the Utes barely beat them.  Utah also barely beat a BYU team that is reeling right now.  Iowa won a tough road game against a rival who is much better than the Cougars, beat a much better Mountain West team than Utah did, and played a top ten team down to the final gun.

Final Verdict:

21. Notre Dame
22. Duke
23. Iowa
24. Utah
25. UCF

League Breakdown:

5 – ACC, Big Ten
4 – Big 12, Pac 12
3 – SEC
2 – American
1 – Independent, Mountain West

Leave a comment