As good as last week was for the league, week two went wrong…horribly wrong. Northwestern was taken to the mat by Duke. Nebraska’s furious comeback ended being for naught in Oregon. Michigan and Wisconsin looked half asleep in ho-hum wins. Iowa showed a lot of heart but a ton of flaws in an overtime escape. Rutgers lost at home to Eastern Michigan. Lastly, Ohio State got embarrassed on a national stage…again. At least Minnesota looked good, really good.
Team of the Week – Minnesota – A+ – The Gophers smoked Oregon State. Okay, fine, it is the rebuilding Beavers, coached by a guy who wasn’t a good enough coach in the Big Ten. Who cares? The reason it was impressive was where it happened and how it happened. Big Ten teams traveling to the Pac 12 has been a mixed bag of embarrassment. Minnesota made the tough time zone trip to play extremely late body time wise and won big.
That’s the where UM played, but how about the way they looked? They dominated every phase of this game. Conor Rhoda only completed 7 of 8 passes but still had 23 more yards than the OSU starter. The ground game produced 253 yards on 58 bruising carries and five scores. Gophers won the turnover margin, 3 to 1, dominated on third down, they had fewer penalties, they held the ball for 16:30 longer, and their special teams shined. Special shout-out to LB Jonathan Celestin who racked up 10 tackles, 8 solo, 2 QB hurries, and a TFL as the Gopher D made life miserable for the Beavers in the 48-14 win.
Illinois – B+ – Illinois did three things EXTREMELY well to knock off Western Kentucky, 20-7. The first is get off the field. Hilltoppers were held to just 2/12 on third and 0/2 on fourth. Second, made WKU extremely one-dimensional. Tough to win a game with 16 rushes for 6 yards and guess what, WKU didn’t win. Finally, Illinois used their running attack to pave the way to victory. Mike Epstein had 111 of UI’s 193 rushing yards in the victory. Passing game is still a work in progress but Illinois is 2-0 and starting to form an identity, especially on defense where they struggled a season ago.
Indiana – C+ – So, um, that was a weird win. Hoosiers won it 34-17 but at no point would you say they were twice the team Virginia was. Peyton Ramsey came in and played well at quarterback, but the running game struggled again (plenty of yards but dismal average), were -1 in the turnover game, and were more penalized. At least the special teams came through with Griffin Oaks being perfect on the day, including a 51 yarder, and J-Shun Harris II housing a 44 yard punt return for seven. Good bounce back win to get to 1-1 but like a lot of Big Ten teams this week, tons of flaws still there.
Iowa – B- – Let’s start with the obvious goods: Iowa’s passing day was awesome, especially considering it was Nathan Stanley’s second career start. The running game was also solid and it was keyed by Akrum Wadley, who also came up big in the passing game, too. Special teams also remained strong.
The issues that Iowa State exploited though have to be fixed quickly. First there was the 74 yard TD pass that was caused by a safety biting hard on a fake. Next there was pace of play. ISU ran a hurry-up that got the team tired and this was then compounded by some extremely short series, this was notable during ISU’s 21-0 run to get back in the game after Iowa was rolling and leading 21-10. Finally the lack of the big play. Stanley was awesome but there were some timing issues on the deep strike. Several plays were agonizingly close. Hitting those passes will force opposing safeties to respect our deep play potential and help everything else open up. As of now, teams don’t have a reason to fear Iowa going over-the-top.
Maryland – A – I don’t give A+s for beating FCS teams but Maryland’s rushing attack was operating at an A+ level on Saturday. 36 carries, 367 yards, and 5 scores as a team and the Terps cruised to a 63-17 victory over Towson.
Michigan – C+ – Wolverines had an extremely sloppy performance but were bailed out by the fact that Cincinnati isn’t good enough to take advantage of UM’s mistakes. Michigan had two turnovers, one was a muffed punt that resulted in a scoring drive for UC. UM was heavily penalized and Speight struggled in the passing game again. Not going to say Michigan was lucky to win this game, because their defensed balled out again, but after two weeks, this team sort of looks like a Les Miles LSU team. All defense, so-so offense…and we know how those teams panned out in SEC and national title races.
Michigan State – A- – Lot’s of potential seen in this one. MSU’s defense was outstanding, holding the Broncos to just 11 first downs, 1/15 on third, and 195 total yards and just 116 on the ground a week after WMU racked up the rushing yardage on USC. Still going with a minus though because of two more turnovers and a less-than-stellar day passing. Lewerke was a big reason I wasn’t high on MSU in the off-season and a 13/21, 161 yard, 1 TD, 1 INT pick doesn’t answer my concerns fully.
Nebraska – D- – Okay, the second half was much, much, much better as the Huskers won the second half 21-0. Problem is they were down 42-14 at half. The defense is wretched: 566 total yards allowed, 365 through the air – this is now two straight 350+ yard days passing allowed. As for the offense, Tanner Lee was a turnover machine at Tulane and against Oregon he had FOUR picks! Improvement in Lincoln is dependent on NU’s passing game getting more efficient and NU’s passing defense getting better – STAT!
Northwestern – F – The Cats were a sleeper (for some, not me) in the west because of a good qb, good rb, and good secondary. The idea was these were strong enough to allow the lines to get up to speed. The problem is the OL was completely manhandled by Duke and as injuries decimated the secondary, the defense imploded. I mean just take a look at NU’s strengths: Thorson was held to 120 yards on 11/29 passing with 2 picks, Justin Jackson had just 18 yards on 7 carries, and the defense gave up 538 yards with 305 of it through the air. Uff-da!
Ohio State – F – The biggest issue last year for OSU was its lack of pop on offense, especially down the field passing. It bit them big time in the loss to Clemson. It bit them against Penn State last year. It bit them again on Saturday. I’m a big JT Barrett believer but a 5.2 average isn’t going to cut it. Even the so-called dink and dunk offenses get those yards because their down field threat is so great that the opposing defense has to respect it. No one respects Barrett’s arm or the receivers right now. By being able to load up and get pressure on him everything is socked up. That vaunted running game produced 167 yards and a 4.9 average but even that isn’t enough when the passing game is stuck in neutral. Lastly the defense got worked most of the night and 9 penalties for 87 yards puts you in the danger zone against anybody but is next to impossible to absorb against a team as good as Oklahoma.
Penn State – B – I think even the biggest Penn State fan would say this wasn’t the cleanest game the Lions could have played but it was never really in doubt, Pitt is not only a rival but a decent team and could even be ranked by the end of the season, and the Lions avoided the costly mistakes that lead to upsets. Just one turnover but +2 in margin, one penalty, clean in special teams, and despite being out-gained, Pitt’s yardage was not produced efficiently.
Purdue – A – Some extremely encouraging signs for Purdue. First David Blough played the best I’ve ever seen him play after not getting the start, finishing 11/13 for 235 yards and 3 scores. The running game was also absolutely bruising. What gets me excited though is the level of competition. I know Ohio isn’t exactly a heavyweight BUT, this team is favored to win the MAC east. If this is one of the best teams in the MAC and Purdue manhandled them and Rutgers lost to an Eastern Michigan team expected to be mid-pack in the MAC, what does that say about the rebuild? I would say it is clearly already on track. And no, that wasn’t meant to be a pun. I realized after typing that sentence that it sounded cliche when writing about Purdue but decided to keep it in because this is an extremely amateur blog. This blog is like a kid using water wings at the pool. Don’t worry about my cliches, but enjoy the beauty of me dog paddling on the interwebs.
Rutgers – D+ – In my week 2 preview I mentioned rebuilding teams have consistency issues. Well that is what plagued Rutgers against Eastern Michigan. They did some some good things but didn’t do them consistently. Take the passing game: not a bad stat line, kind of game manager-y until you get to the INTs: 2 of them. Toss in nine penalties and a poor third down conversion rate and you see why the loss was possible. Finally, consistency requires running good offense everywhere on the field. Rutgers couldn’t do that as they settled for 2 field goals deep in EMU territory. The longest kick was just 39 yards. Switch either one to six, RU wins.
Wisconsin – B- – Badgers did some great things in this game and some extremely sloppy things that you can get away with against FAU but won’t cut it against fellow top-ten teams. Highlighting the positive: running game was unstoppable. 357 yards on a 6.6 average as a team with Jonathan Taylor (no Thomas) leading things with a big number. Try 223 big and 3 scores. The defense also strapped up the head gear, especially in the second half as the Owls just had 248 yards, 9 first downs, and a dismal 2 of 14 on third.
Here’s the sloppy though: the passing game isn’t generating deep strikes. Much like Iowa and OSU, Hornibrook isn’t pushing the ball down field enough. A 6.9 yards per pass average against FAU won’t cut it. Hornibrook is sitting at 29th nationally right now with 8.7 yards per attempt which sounds good but factor in the level of competition: Utah State and FAU. Another factor in the yards after catch – looks great now, but what about against speedier and more talented defenses? Finally, UW was sloppy with 2 turnover, missed a field goal, and had one drive end in a 20 yard field goal. Great teams finish drives with six. Need to clean these issues up.
Game of the Week – Call me a homer, I don’t care. Iowa and Iowa State was a back-and-forth game that went to overtime. It wasn’t the cleanest game, wasn’t the best defended game, but it was the most enjoyable game for spectators.
Why Did I Watch This? Award – Maryland was facing a FCS team and was up 28-7 at halftime. Sure the UM parents loved it. For the rest of us…not so much.
Gambling Report Card:
- Illinois vs Western Kentucky, Points (WKU -7.5)
Just a heads up, this was a pretty rough week at the sports book so I’ll take joy in what few victories I have. This is one of them. WKU historically hasn’t fared well against power league teams, let alone covering a touchdown plus spread against them. Felt great about picking Illinois to cover and they just did that, winning the game 20-7.
- Indiana at Virginia, IU (-3.0), Over (56.5)
Stupid, stupid Virginia! They only put up 17 points, resulting in a combined 51 points. At least I got a split as IU evened up their overall mark with the win down in Chancellorsville.
- Iowa at Iowa State, UI (-2.5), Under (48)
Another split as the Hawks covered, thanks to forcing overtime, but considering the rivals already put up 76 points entering OT, that over was demolished.
- Maryland
No line on the game as UM hosted an FCS foe.
- Michigan vs Cincinnati, UM (-34.0), Over (49)
I’d love to blame my brother for guilting me into this bet because he went to Michigan and gave me a lot of guff for not trusting UM to cover against Florida but I can’t. I saw UC’s dismal week one effort and assumed they had zero shot in this game. Earn an extremely narrow split though thanks to the two teams putting up 50 combined points.
- Michigan State vs Western Michigan, Points (MSU -7.0, degenerate tip)
To be fair, the Broncos did manufacture some points despite an awful day offensively to only lose by 14. Unfortunately “close” at a casino goes over about as well as a tofurky would at our family Thanksgiving.
- Minnesota at Oregon State, Points (OSU -2.0), Over (51.5)
Oregon State was favored…my god, I thought that was hilarious last week and still do today. Minnesota steamrolled them giving us a double-up as the Gophers nearly covered the over alone thanks to 48 points in their blowout victory.
- Nebraska at Oregon, UO (-13.5), Over (70)
Rats! When it was 42-14 at half I was laughing and laughing. The Cornhusker comeback did nothing but result in a split for us as the 42-35 final easily cleared the over but obviously prevented the Ducks from covering.
- Northwestern at Duke, NU (-3.0), Under (55)
Double ouch, not only did Duke crush Northwestern 41-17, but 17 combined fourth quarter points resulted in losing the under bet, too.
- Ohio State vs Oklahoma, OSU (-7.0), Over (65)
I said Oklahoma should be able to score in the 25-30 range against the Buckeye defense and they did, finishing with 31 points. What I didn’t factor in was OSU only scoring 16.
- Penn State vs Pitt, Points (PSU -22.0), Under (66.5)
Whew, I needed this as the last three games are pretty ugly. I thought the rivalry game would be close-ish, or at least closer than 3 TDs, and also expected Penn State’s defense to prevent the game from generating too many points. Both came true as Penn State dominated, but only won 33-14.
- Purdue vs Ohio, Points (PU -3.5), Under (57)
From the gambling guide, “Ride or Die with Frank Solich, baby!” I died as Purdue’s dominating 44-21 win gives me a sweep from this one.
- Rutgers vs Eastern Michigan, RU (-5.5), Under (51)
Split feels good here because the UW game is also a, pardon my French, shit show. Hats off to the Eagles for getting a nice road victory, though. It would be cool to see them make back-to-back bowl games.
- Wisconsin vs Florida Atlantic, UW (-32.0), Over (58.5)
How far off was I on this game? Well for starters, Wisconsin didn’t even score 32 points. Double trouble with a loser sweep from Madison.
Week Record: 10-14-0…I will say this, at one point on Saturday morning I was 0-6 in my bets.
Season Record: 21-28-0…Plenty of games left. Translation: it’ll either get much, much worse, or I have time to get dialed in.
Big Ten and Counting 