The following games do not have a spread:
- Maryland vs Towson
Illinois vs Western Kentucky
- WKU -7.5, Over / Under 53
Woah, a Big Ten team over a touchdown underdog to a C-USA team at home. Western Kentucky is a solid, solid team but I’ll take those points. Since Willy Taggert turned WKU around in 2011 they are 13-12 in non conference games. Three of those wins are against FCS clubs so that is 10-12 in FBS non-con match-ups. Out of those 22 games, nine were against power conference teams. In those nine, WKU is just 3-6. In those three wins they have an overtime win against Kentucky, a 14-12 win over Vanderbilt, and a 35-26 win over Kentucky. So to cover this big a spread, they have only done that once recently and it was against a UK team that would finish 2-10 (0-8) in the SEC, a historically awful team. Lastly in 2014, Illinois had a lackluster 28-17 win over Youngstown State in week one before beating WKU 42-34. Historical evidence points to Illinois covering. That’s about all I feel safe with regarding this game so I am avoiding the over/under like the plague because outside being a close one, the final could be 14-13 or it could be 52-49. I honestly have no idea how these offenses will look.
Indiana at Virginia
- Indiana -3.0, O/U 56.5
After week one I don’t love using my previews as a guide but I wanted to return to my original feelings about the Hoosiers and not let that rough looking second half against the Buckeyes cloud my judgement too much. In the preview I had Indiana winning 38-21. Translation, give me the favorite and the over. C’mon, Hoosiers!
Iowa at Iowa State
- Iowa -2.5, O/U 48
Last month in the preview I picked Iowa 21-17. Hot damn, I kind of like that score. Both offenses struggled as Iowa put up 24 and ISU put up 28 (two pick sixes got them to 42) and both teams also played some nice defense, Iowa especially as they held Wyoming to just three points. This is generally a tight rivalry but a spread this small is essentially a pick ’em and with Iowa’s elite defense, I think the smart thing is to pick the Hawks and the under.
Michigan vs Cincinnati
- Michigan -34.0, O/U 49
I seriously misjudged Michigan a week ago and I won’t make the same mistake again. Wolverines cover this massive spread and the over gets trashed as the Wolverines hang half a hundred. FYI, in case you missed it, UC wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in a 26-14 win over Austin Peay. So despite being a big number, the Wolverines will hit it against such a middling opponent.
Michigan State vs Western Michigan
- MSU -7.0, O/U 50
One one hand Bowling Green’s offense was awful against MSU a week ago, so that has me leaning Sparty because of their D. On the other hand, MSU was sloppy with three lost fumbles and some other lackluster play, something that WMU could exploit. Then again, MSU overcame their slow start and really poured it on during the second and third quarters, showing a lot of offensive growth since last year. Then again, Western played so dang well out at USC that it is hard to overlook that performance. When I’m this conflicted I tell casual gamblers to just pocket their money and play it safe. But for degenerates like me…well, we like to gamble and that’s the point of this column. If I’m gamblin’, I’m taking the Broncos. They stuck with USC all game and the Trojans are much better than this Michigan State team. Not saying the Broncos pull off the upset, but I think they can keep it within a touchdown.
Minnesota at Oregon State
- OSU -2.0, O/U 51.5
Oregon State’s defense has been shredded by Colorado State and Portland State. I expect Minnesota’s offense to step up and be a lot more impressive than they were in a sloppy game against Buffalo, resulting in a road victory. OSU’s first two games have also gone over, WAY over 51 and a half points: 85 in week one, 67 in week two. It’s not a big sample size but it’s a trend. Game sneaks into the mid 50s, 28-24, Gophers.
Nebraska at Oregon
- Oregon -13.5, O/U 70
Neither team has a defense so that over is toast. As for giving 13.5? Holy hell, I have Oregon winning this game going away. Giving up under two touchdowns feels like…something. I hate calling games lock and avoid it best I can, but it does sort of feel in the vicinity of lockiness.
Northwestern at Duke
- Northwestern -3.0, O/U 55
In the preseason I picked the Cats to win 28-21. I really like that score. I think both defenses had nice stretches in week one and despite Duke putting up 60 points, it was against North Carolina Central. Just too many unknowns for the Blue Devils to feel safe having money riding on them. Northwestern and the under, good sir.
Ohio State vs Oklahoma
- OSU -7.0, O/U 65
Ohio State had four games score 65+ last year and Oklahoma had seven to hit that mark or more. One of those games even overlapped, last year’s 45-24 final. Those high scoring games are often due to Oklahoma’s defense being prone to giving up points. In fact they finished 75th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 29.7 points per game a year ago. Ohio State’s offense is well above average so they should be able to get to the 35-42 point range again and Oklahoma’s offense with Mayfield should be able to also get around 25-30 points. Buckeyes cover at home (or possibly push) and the game goes over, simple!
Penn State vs Pittsburgh
- PSU -22.0, O/U 66.5
Hmm, that’s a big spread for a rivalry game. Lions can win comfortably by 17 and still not cover. They can blow the game wide open and win by 21 and still not cover. Going with the Panthers, even with their shaky overtime win over Youngstown State last week. A repeat of last year’s 42-39 thriller also feels extremely low. Even a 35-31 shootout doesn’t cover that over! All things considered, watch Penn State win in the ballpark of 42-21 – a massive victory but doesn’t cover or clear the over. Points and under feels dangerous with Penn State, but not in a rivalry and not when the over is that high.
Purdue vs Ohio
- Purdue -3.5, O/U 57
I love Ohio’s defense, I think this could be an extremely low scoring game. In fact, I’d say it is more likely to end up in the 30s than the 60s. As for who wins it? I actually think Purdue’s near upset against Louisville said more about the Cards’ issues than the Boilermakers figuring things out. Ride or die with Frank Solich, baby!
Rutgers vs Eastern Michigan
- Rutgers -5.5, O/U 51
Initial reaction, that over is way too high. EMU’s defense only allowed 7 points to Charlotte and RU’s gave up 16 (Washington got to 30 thanks to a punt return score and an interceptions setting up a short field). I think this one ends in the 30s or 40s. Eastern is a great story as they made a bowl for the first time since 1987 last year but they aren’t quite up to snuff for a non-conference road win at a power five school. For instance, last year they lost to Missouri, 61-21, and the Tigers were 4-8 (2-6). This year’s Rutgers team is probably going to finish about the same as last year’s Missouri club, so despite being a low scoring affair, I do think they can cover.
Wisconsin vs Florida Atlantic
- Wisconsin -32.0, O/U 58.5
FAU’s performance against Navy? Awful…and they lost 42-19. Wisconsin against Utah State? Flawed…and they won 59-10. Badgers romp and that over gets splashed. Maybe not by 59 straight points, but I think Bucky can hit half a hundred again.
Lightning Round for Non-Readers:
Illinois/Western Kentucky – Points
Indiana/Virginia – IU, Over
Iowa/Iowa State – UI, Under
Michigan/Cincinnati – UM, Over
Michigan State/Western Michigan – Points (degenerate pick)
Minnesota/Oregon State – UM, Over
Nebraska/Oregon – UO, Over
Northwestern/Duke – NU, Under
Ohio State/Oklahoma – OSU, Over
Penn State/Pitt – Points, Under
Purdue/Ohio – Points, Under
Rutgers/Eastern Michigan – RU, Under
Wisconsin/FAU – UW, Over
Big Ten and Counting 