Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Ohio State

In the NCAA football video game it was pretty standard to start your career at a school with 60 some victories, a handful of loses, and a national title.  Doing that in real life is extremely rare but Urban Meyer has accomplished it.  His record in Columbus is now up to 61-6 (39-2) with a national title in 2014.  2016 was another outstanding season with his club routing Bowling Green, Tulsa, Oklahoma (on the road), and Rutgers.  The 4-0 Buckeyes looked unstoppable until the middle of their schedule.

They had a ho-hum victory over Indiana by 21 points – outside a disastrous second quarter for the Hoosiers, the game was fairly even.  They needed overtime to escape Madison and then they lost in Happy Valley.  The rough stretch continued with a narrow four point win at home against Northwestern.  Still, they entered November with a 7-1 (4-1) mark.

They breezed through Nebraska and a trip to Maryland winning both games 62-3.  They ended with traveling to East Lansing and hosting Michigan.  The flaws in Ohio State were evident in both games: a one-point win over MSU and a double overtime win against Michigan.

It wasn’t just how close these games were that was concerning but how poorly the offense would play at times.  Wisconsin: 30 points (in OT), Penn State: 21 points, Northwestern: 24 points, MSU: 17 points, Michigan: 30 points (in two overtimes).  Outside 45 points put up against Oklahoma, the Buckeyes failed to get over 30 points in regulation against any competent defense.  This should have been a red flag.  This should have been enough to prevent them from playing in the CFP.

The committee though, they’re not smart.  They essentially work for ESPN.  ESPN knows Ohio State equals dollars.  It is it any surprise they got in over Penn State (still unpopular from the Sandusky scandal)?  Of course not.  Karma took care of the Buckeyes though.  Eventual national champ Clemson bulldozed Ohio State 31-0.  Make no mistake, Ohio State was a very good team last year, but they were not one of the four best and had no business being in that “playoff.”

Will they deserve it this year?  Well, that was the beauty of last year.  Ohio State was relatively young last season.  With so many players departing after 2015 the Bucks had some fantastic recruits step up last season and this year, well, a lot of them are back.

It all starts with the man under center, J.T. Barrett.  This kid’s career has been phenomenal.  Over 2500 yards twice, 61.5% or better every year of his career, multiple seasons over 20 touchdowns (one over thirty!), low interception total, and hundred yard per game rushing ability.  Last season he was second on the team with 845 rushing yards and had 9 rushing TDs.

It doesn’t end there.  His mental fortitude is also off the charts.  After getting hurt late in 2014 and seeing Cardale Jones win the national title, he had to split duties in 2015.  A lot of kids would have transferred or become headcases.  Not J.T.  He came out and was the most reliable offensive weapon a year ago for a team that frankly had a habit of getting way too one-dimensional.

Joining Barrett in the backfield is Mike Weber.  Weber had the unenviable task of trying to fill Ezekiel Elliot’s shoes as a freshman.  Weber responded with just shy of 1100 yards, a 6.0 yards per carry, and tied Barrett with a team high 9 rushing TDs.  He can also grow in the passing game.  He snagged 23 passes last year but after seeing Curtis Samuel rush 97 times and catch 74 passes, it is possible for Weber to assume some of the expanded duties that Samuel had last year.

They will need Weber to expand his profile in the passing attack because if there is one weakness to Ohio State right now, it is in the receiving corps.  The leading receiver back is senior TE Marcus Baugh who had 24 catches, 269 yards, and 2 scores.  Behind him is a bunch of kids.  The most promising of the returning no-names is K.J. Hill.  He had 18 receptions and 2 scores as a freshman last year.  Juniors Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin are also coming off career years with their first double-digit campaigns in receptions.  Highly praised recruit Binjimen Victor was a non-factor last year but the former 4-star kid is only a sophomore, still plenty of time for him to step up.

With OSU’s recruiting, most of the concerns should be figured out by the end of the season but there are a few questions outside WR here in August.  The secondary and LB groups will have several new faces and a solid kicker in Tyler Durbin is also gone.  The other question is how the new offensive staff will shape up.  Kevin Wilson is the new OC and Ryan Day will be the co-OC.  Wilson has an incredible track record but new systems are not learned over night.

Even with these minor concerns, Barrett, Weber, a solid OL and a defense that returns their top five in sacks is more than enough talent to make a run at Indianapolis or even a third playoff.  Honestly, the biggest hair to split between this stacked team and Penn state is the schedule.  I think OSU’s is just a tad harder than the Nittany Lions, even with OSU hosting the rematch.  Take a look:

2017 Schedule

At Indiana

• Best Case – A strange one with a season opening road league game but openers have been very good to the Bucks under Meyer.  Last year they opened the season with a 77-10 thrashing of Bowling Green.  1-0
• Worst Case – As a wrote in my Indiana preview: I’ve noticed an intriguing trend for Ohio State since 2012, Urban Meyer’s first year. First league road games have been tight…2012: 17-16 at MSU, 2013: 40-30 at Northwestern, 2014: 52-24 at Maryland (next trip was OT at Penn State), 2015: 34-27 at Indiana, 2016: 30-23 OT at Wisconsin.  All were wins but the margin of victory just 10.6 and that is with a terrible Maryland team losing by 28 skewing this.  If you take them out and just look at competent teams, the average margin of victory in those four games is just 6.25. Hoosiers STUN the nation.  0-1
• Prediction – IU is not your usual Hoosier club and there are reasons to think Indiana can keep it close but in the end I expect Ohio State to pull away after a bit of a slow start.  W, 35-20, 1-0 (1-0)

Oklahoma

• BC – OSU crushed Oklahoma a year ago and we all know about the reputation of Big 12 defenses…2-0
• WC – It would boggle the mind to see Ohio State lose two in a row but the Sooners are expected to contend for the Big 12 title and the CFP.  Plus they still have Baker Mayfield, a Heisman hopeful at quarterback.  0-2
• P – With the talent on the field pretty much equal there are two x-factors that go Ohio State’s way.  The obvious one is the home field but don’t forget about coaching.  Oklahoma has a brand new coach and as high as Lincoln Riley’s ceiling may be, he hasn’t proven anything as a head man yet.  W, 35-21, 2-0 (1-0)

Army

• BC – Army won 8 games and a bowl last year but lost to some not good teams like Buffalo, Duke, and Notre Dame.  They also lost to Air Force but the Falcons do not qualify as not good.  3-0
• WC – Black Knights look to go bowling again with seven winnable dates on their schedule but this game is well out of their league.  1-2
• P – Navy’s option gave Ohio State some fits back in 2014, a game OSU eventually won 34-17.  Problem is, I don’t think Army is as good as the 2014 Midshipmen ended up being.  W, 42-14, 3-0 (1-0)

UNLV

• BC – Rebs struggled to find any consistency at quarterback a season ago.  Tough to pull an upset with that position in flux.  4-0
• WC – Rebs made up for shaky QB play with the 22nd ranked rushing attack but that was going against a little easier competition in the Mountain West.  2-2
• P – Like Army, UNLV has a decent chance at a bowl when you look at the rest of the games on the schedule not featuring the Crimson and Silver.  W, 49-10, 4-0 (1-0)

At Rutgers

• BC – The Knights are coming off a woeful 0-9 league finish last year that included a 78-0 loss against Michigan.  Ohio State coming within even 14 points of that would still make for an impressive victory.  5-0
• WC – The difference in talent in this game might be as wide as any power five match-up all season long in 2016.  3-2
• P – Buckeyes aren’t just Big Ten title hopefuls this year but national title hopefuls thanks to a slew of talent.  They should have no trouble against the rebuilding Knights.  W, 52-10, 5-0 (2-0)

Maryland

• BC – Last year’s final in this game?  62-3.  Always a chance for a sequel.  6-0
• WC – UM’s solid ground game eats up clock and yards as the Terps keep it closer than last year, but the Buckeyes still get the victory.  4-2
• P – With sacks being a returning strength for OSU and a Maryland OL that struggled in pass protection a season ago, I expect Maryland to become way too one-dimensional, resulting in an easy victory.  W, 49-10, 6-0 (3-0)

At Nebraska

• BC – Oh, wait, the Maryland 62-3 sequel did come out: last year when they beat Nebraska by the exact same score.  7-0
• WC – Moral victory at best for NU.  After all OSU looks better on paper than they did a year ago and Nebraska looks worse.  5-2
• P – Frankly, not one aspect of the Husker team right now has an advantage over Ohio State.  W, 45-10, 7-0 (4-0)

Penn State

• BC – Very, very similar teams but OSU appears to have quite the edge in OL versus the Penn State defensive line.  8-0
• WC – Just like a season, Penn State plays a gutsy game and makes a few special plays, e.g. blocking a field goal for the second straight year.  5-3
• P – There is a lot to love about both teams and picking a winner in August is just so difficult but I’m going to and I’m going to pick the home team for a few reasons.  The first is the Shoe is a legit home field advantage.  Next, as great as McSorely is, I think J.T. Barrett is just a little bit better.  Barrett is more accurate and a better weapon with his feet.  Finally, OSU outplayed Penn State by every measure last year.  That blocked field goal was the difference in the game.  W, 31-28, 8-0 (5-0)

At Iowa

• BC – Iowa has a big question mark right now at quarterback.  If they sort out that position they are a sleeper in the west.  If not, they might not make a bowl game.  9-0
• WC – If Iowa were to pull a massive upset this year it would most likely be against Penn State.  Iowa matches up a tad better with them because of Iowa’s strong front seven versus PSU’s good but not elite OL.  Ohio State racks up another road victory.  6-3
• P – Buckeyes return more players, better players, and have a set star quarterback. Don’t really see much shot in this one for my Hawkeyes. W, 35-10, 9-0 (6-0)

Michigan State

• BC – MSU quarterback play left a lot to be desired last season.  Situation doesn’t look ideal for the Spartans this year, either.  10-0
• WC – For some reason MSU seemingly always give the Buckeyes fits.  Last year was no different in a 17-16 final.  MSU totally upsets the league race with a massive victory inside the Shoe.  6-4
• P – This game means a lot to the Spartans and they’ll be up for it.  L.J. Scott will have another gem of a game and MSU will play above their heads but the better team escapes.  W, 28-21, 10-0 (7-0)

Illinois

• BC – Barrett’s Heisman campaign is in full swing, Buckeyes have been number one in all the polls for weeks, and they polish off one last foe before The Game.  11-0
• WC – The WR group never quite gets going so OSU is too one-dimensional this season resulting in a disappointing final record but they polish off the Illini to notch another victory.  7-4
• P – Huge talent gap and the game is the hellish Shoe.  W, 42-6, 11-0 (8-0)

At Michigan

• BC – Ohio State is #1 in the AP, coaches, and CFP.  Off to Indianapolis to play Northwestern that miraculously won the west.  OSU enters as 28 point favorites and lives up that.  12-0
• WC – Michigan #1 in the AP, coaches, and CFP.  They head off to Indianapolis to play Northwestern that miraculously won the west.  UM enters as 28 point favorites and lives up that.  7-5
• P – OSU has more experience.  I’m not sure that will matter as much in week 12 as it would in week one but I just think Ohio State knows how to finish games a bit better than the Wolverines.  W, 31-24, 12-0 (9-0)

Final Notes

Ohio State returns plenty of talent, have 4 and 5 star recruits to fill what few holes they have, play their biggest competition in the league at home this year and avoid Wisconsin as a crossover.  Simply put, failing to make Indianapolis would be a massive letdown for the Buckeyes.

As for the CFP and beyond, well, expecting it is a bit of a stretch.  You need to play the games but Ohio State has a great shot at a return trip to the “playoffs” and a national title.  I expecting is too strong a word and optimistic is too weak I’ll take a good election word: honored.  Ohio State would be honored to participate in the “tournament” again.