Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Wisconsin

Quick, who has the most wins in the Big Ten title game?  Wisconsin and Michigan State with two each.  Follow up, who has the most appearances in the Big Ten title game?  Wisconsin, with four.  The consistency of this program from the day Barry Alvarez was hired, through Bret Bielema bolting for Arkansas, though Gary Andersen quitting because of UW’s academics and up until now with Paul Chryst is remarkable.  The reason for this is a clear identity: pushing running game and stellar defense.  It might not always be the flashiest but damn if it isn’t effective at pounding the opponent into submission.

Last year the defense stymied fifth ranked LSU all day as the Badgers pulled off a stunning 16-14 upset to open up the season.  Smoking Akron followed by a 23-17 wake up call against Georgia State pushed UW to 3-0 in the non conference.  A trip to then ranked #8 MSU led to another top ten victory in convincing 30-6 fashion.  Granted MSU didn’t turn out to be as good as we thought but dominating a league foe on the road like that is still impressive.

Badgers hit a rough patch to start October though.  At Michigan and Ohio State.  Both games were losses but it was clear just how good Wisconsin was in those losing efforts.  The UM game was a slim 14-7 final and the OSU game was a 30-23 overtime heart-breaker.  The tricky part of the schedule wasn’t done yet.  The Badgers survived a trip to Iowa City, 17-9, and then on Halloween weekend knocked off seventh ranked Nebraska 23-17 in another OT game to move to 6-2 (3-2).

Finally passed that grueling center of the schedule, Wisconsin could string together some wins and make a run at the division title.  First up was a trip Northwestern: UW dominated, 21-7.  Then hapless Illinois came to Camp Randall: demolished, 48-3.  Next was a game at Purdue: derailed, 49-20.  Last but not least, hosting rival Minnesota for the Axe: declawed, 31-17.  Wisconsin wrapped up another double-digit win season going 10-2 (7-2) and won the division, again.

There was an unforeseen twist in the title game: Penn State.  Wisconsin’s nasty defense was great against Michigan, who had solid offensive players but nothing overly explosive, and they held their own against OSU, who could be one-dimensional at times last year with their play-calling.  But Penn State…Penn State was a legit offensive outfit.  They had play makers at numerous positions and were rarely one-dimensional.

Wisconsin made a great show of it to start.  They jumped out to a 28-14 lead at the break.  Sometimes even with a lead, defensive players get gassed and small mistakes turn into massive errors when tired.  I think that is what happened as Penn State’s offense could seemingly do no wrong in the second half.  Penn State’s defense also adjusted wonderfully and as a result, the comeback was gut wrenching for Badger nation as Penn State took the game, 38-31.  Still, Wisconsin bounced back nicely in the Cotton Bowl, fending off an outstanding Western Michigan team to wrap up the year 11-3 (7-2) with all three losses decided by just one measly touchdown.

So consistent programs rarely fluctuate in win totals and Wisconsin is a consistent program, therefore…..double-digit wins again, no?  Probably, but there is more to it than just labeling a team consistent.  They need to have players, too and by golly, the Badgers have a lot of talent back.  Like, um, EVERY Wisconsin team there is a stacked offensive line returning and these men will be clearing holes for a bevy of backs.

This stacked position starts with Bradrick Shaw who had 88 carries for 457 yards and 5 touchdowns as a true freshman.  Between superstar Corey Clement and reliable backup Dare Ogunbowale, it was a bit of a surprise to see the talented Shaw get so many carries.  An expanded role for such a young talent is mighty intriguing.  Junior Taiwan Deal is also back.  Due to injuries Deal got a ton of rushes in 2015.  His role was greatly reduced last year to just 32 carries but he is reliable and if injuries come like they did two years ago, Deal is a pretty good option to have as a probable third option.

The reason Deal is most likely going to be the third banana is Pitt transfer Chris James.  James was a highly coveted recruit in the class of 2014 with twelve power conference teams offering scholarships including seven Big Ten teams and Georgia Tech, who is always a good barometer of how desired a back is thanks to their option attack.  As good as James can be, he just didn’t get many cracks with the Panthers because they have had some tremendous talent go through there.  Still he has nearly 700 career yards, 4 TDs with just under 150 career caries.  If he lives up to the hype, Shaw and James could be the most lethal RB duo in the league.

I would be remiss if I didn’t add two other important cogs to the Badger ground game.  This is a strange position to hear about for 95% of college football teams but with so many two back formations and key blocks provided by fullbacks it is worth noting when discussing the Badgers.  Both fullbacks from last year, senior Austin Ramesh and Alec Ingold, are back.  Both also have a nose for the goal line with 5 combined touchdowns a year ago and an additional six more for Ingold back in 2015.  Ingold also nabbed six passes last year with two of them going for touchdowns.  Good FB play is an added dimension that makes the Badger attack that much better.

Joining all this talent in the backfield is sophomore QB Alex Hornibrook.  His season was a strange one.  He didn’t win the job in camp, Bart Houston did.  Houston had 436 yards through the first two games and was the QB for the LSU upset but as a senior he was at best a stop gap before Hornibrook would start his career.  As Houston’s accuracy and reads struggled, the heat turned up.

During the Georgia State game, the Badgers struggled and a lot of it was Houston going 10/18 for 91 yards.  Hornibrook stepped in and went 8/12 for 122 yards.  Against MSU Hornibrook connected on 16 of 26 for 195 yards but against Michigan he was downright awful in a 9/25 for 88 yards and 1 TD to 3 INT day.  Against OSU he was back on top of things with 16/27 for 214 but he wasn’t hitting the big play or scoring at will.  His longest pass to this point of the season was just 36 yards and he only had 5 TDs to 6 picks.

After the Ohio State game Hornibrook and Houston started splitting reps.  Hornibrook shined against Iowa with 11/19 and 197 but failed to score.  Houston was 4/6 for 59 and a score.  Neither had a pick against Iowa’s formidable defense.  That Iowa game was kind of it for Hornibrook.  After that he failed to get 100 yards in a single game, had just 3 more TDs before eventually got hurt.

Post Iowa, Houston had four 100 yard games, including a solid Big Ten title game and shredding Western Michigan in the bowl (11/12 for 159).  With split duties and a final stat line of just : 106/181, 1262, 58.6%, 6.97 YPA, 9 TD, 7 INT it is tough to say for certain that Hornibrook is the real deal.  He had flashes, most notably the Ohio State and Iowa games where he was facing off against two of the three better defenses he faced.  He also makes quick reads as indicated by just 13 sacks last season.  I know the OL helps keep that number low but if he held on to the ball for forever that number would climb.  Heck, just look at Houston.  Houston lost his job primarily because of decision making and he was sacked 11 times with 40 fewer pass attempts.

The beauty of Wisconsin’s rushing system is they don’t need a singular talent at QB, they just need someone who isn’t a turnover machine and can keep defenses honest.  Yes it was more fun when Russell Wilson was there but that’s not who Hornibrook is, at least not yet.  In fact the biggest asset for Hornibrook is that he saw the field last year.  Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Illinois all have new starting quarterbacks within the division.  Being a known commodity actually gives Wisconsin stability at the position.

Okay, that was a ton on Hornibrook.  In fact I’m nearing 1400 words already so let’s kick it into gear so this doesn’t turn into War and Peace.  The guys catching balls from Hornibrook should be alright.  TE Tony Fumagalli and WR Jazz Peavy were the leading receivers last year.  Peavy had more yards but Fumagalli was number two.  Fumagalli had more receptions but Peavy was number two.  While not particularly deep, these two provide a good foundation for whoever emerges as the rest of the WR and TE groups.  Lastly, a healthy Rafael Gaglianoe is back kicking.  Phenomenal in 2014, the Brazilian missed nine field goals in 2015; however, before getting hurt last season, he appeared to regain his form going 7/8 on FGs and 10/10 from PAT.

Defensively, Wisconsin is stacked, especially in the front seven.  Even with the disappointing injury to the outstanding Jack Cichy, UW has tons of talent.  Ends Conor Sheehy and Alec James are back as well as a deep rotation at nose tackle.  LB T.J. Edwards is also the real deal, keeping the LB group solid even without Cichy.

There are really just three and a half concerns right now for Wisconsin.  The first is can new DC Jim Leonhard coordinate things effectively?  He was great at coaching the secondary but this is his first time calling plays.  Second and third are the depth for the WR group and the secondary.  The half concern is, will Hornibrook play consistently well enough to get beyond Indianapolis.  UW made Indy a season ago with a chaotic quarterback situation but for this CFP sleeper, they need these 3.5 areas addressed because outside these concerns, UW looks like all systems are go.

2017 Schedule

Utah State

• Best Case – Aggies are in a a tailspin with current coach Matt Wells.  He won nine games in 2013 and ten in 2014 but has gone 9-16 (6-11) the last two with last season’s 3-9 (1-7) stinker his last impression for the good folks in Logan, UT.  1-0
• Worst Case – Remember when USU only lost 16-14 in 2012 and that was good enough for Barry to hire Andersen at the end of the year?  Legitimately feels like 15 years ago, not almost five.  1-0
• Prediction – Utah State’s rush defense a season ago, 89th.  Ruh-row.  W, 42-7, 1-0

FAU

• BC – Lane Kiffin takes over a team that went 3-9 last year with the 118th ranked rush defense.  2-0
• WC – FAU lost at Kansas State last year 63-7.  I see no way, no how for Wisconsin to lose this thing.  2-0
• P – Sure Kiffin looked good utilizing Alabama’s talent but are people forgetting his overall record?  35-21 (21-16) with a 3-10 mark against ranked opponents.  He’s young, a football lifer, and a great gamble for both FAU to improve and for Kiffin to show he can coach because up until now…dude hasn’t shown he can coach.  W, 49-3, 2-0

At BYU

• BC – The Cougars went just 3-3 last year against power league teams with their wins being woeful Arizona and Michigan State to go along with a mediocre Mississippi State team.  3-0
• WC – Their losses in those six  power match-ups were to Utah (1 point), UCLA (3 points), and West Virginia (3 points).  In fact they went 9-4 with the only other loss to Boise State (by 1 on the smurf turf).  Oh, they also had the 7th best run defense a year ago.  2-1
• P – If this game doesn’t scare the crap out of you as a Badger fan you are, quite frankly, a moron.  Kalani Sitake is an extremely experienced defensive mind who had a solid 9-4 debut season as a first year coach at a program that expects winning and they have a solid quarterback in Tanner Mangum.  BYU also enjoys a different type of home field advantage than we see in the Big Ten and that is altitude: 4,649 feet above sea level.  That, combined with over 63,000 screaming fans, make this a trip from hell.  Literally the only thing preventing me from taking BYU is the fact that Paul Chryst is 4-1 and has won his last four road openers.  I trust he conveys his message again and the portable running game and solid defense is a formula for a narrow escape.  W, 17-14, 3-0

Northwestern

• BC – UW’s rush defense was so good last year – how good was it? – that it held Northwestern to 39 rushing yards.  4-0
• WC – Thorson played extremely well against UW last year.  It got buried in the awful rushing day and 21-7 final but with the depth concerns in the secondary, maybe his arm is enough to pull out the victory.  2-2
• P – Let’s assume something for a second and say that NU’s advantage under center is to such a degree that the Wildcats and Badgers are essentially equal.  Admittedly, a bit of a stretch but hear me out.  When two teams are equal, I look at the better OL and the home team.  Both of these favor Wisconsin.  W, 24-10, 4-0 (1-0)

At Nebraska

• BC – Hey, remember when UW dropped 70 on ’em?  Hilarious.  5-0
• WC – Nebraska got some outstanding performances in last year’s overtime thriller.  Unfortunately basically all those guys graduated.  3-2
• P – Huskers are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.  Good luck implementing it this early in the season against Wisconsin’s run game.  W, 31-13, 5-0 (2-0)

Purdue

• BC – Purdue’s total defense last year was only 91st…not bad considering they were 117th in scoring.  6-0
• WC – UW is better at every position group and the home team.  They ain’t losing.  4-2
• P – Way too much defense for Purdue to handle as they try and get the Brohm brothers’ attack working in year one.  W, 35-10, 6-0 (3-0)

Maryland

• BC – Terps have some nice pieces back but a big question at quarterback and they aren’t as deep as UW, either.  7-0
• WC – Maryland’s ground game is good enough to put a scare into the Badgers but that’s only if UM can crack this formidable front seven for Chryst’s club.  5-2
• P – UW’s pass rush was solid last year with 34 sacks, tied for 28th nationally.  Maryland’s biggest offensive concern is pass protection.  That doesn’t bode well for the visitors.  W, 31-14, 7-0 (4-0)

At Illinois

• BC – In all honestly, Illinois feels closer to Purdue or Rutgers in terms of having their rebuild on track than they are to Maryland.  8-0
• WC – After last year’s 48-3 debacle, Illinois keeping it within 21 feels like a vast improvement.  6-2
• P – Fun story, defensive guru Lovie Smith’s rush defense finished 103rd and 92nd in scoring.  Running lanes galore in this one.  W, 35-7, 8-0 (5-0)

At Indiana

• BC – That nasty UW front seven eats up yet another good OL, spoiling an upset bid.  9-0
• WC – A repeat of last year’s title game where the formidable Hoosier offense gets clicking and shaky QB play prevents Wisconsin from keeping up in a track meet type game.  6-3
• P – I’ll give Indiana credit for going toe-to-toe in the skill position groups, probably even having an advantage at WR and QB but Wisconsin is vastly superior in the trenches.  Bucky escapes with a late defensive hold and an insurance score.  W, 24-14, 9-0 (6-0)

Iowa

• BC – Iowa has some pieces to love but they also have several unresolved issues, the biggest is what in the world they will get at quarterback this year.  Badgers come in at #2 in the CFP.  10-0
• WC – Last year’s game was only 17-9 despite it being one of Hornibrook’s best.  Iowa’s defense can keep them in this one and maybe they steal it.  After all, Iowa is a sleeper in the west for a reason.  6-4
• P – Iowa has slight edges on the OL and LB but that’s about it.  For the entire defense, Wisconsin returns a bit more talent.  That’s the difference maker in an absolute alley brawl between two physical clubs.  W, 14-10, 10-0 (7-0)

Michigan

• BC – One metric has UM as 127th of 129 teams in terms of returning production.  That doesn’t sound very good.  11-0
• WC – Of course playing Michigan this late in the season sort of throws out the whole experience argument.  6-5
• P – I know UM will be much, much better this late in the season than they appear to be now and so I will consider these teams completely equal.  You know what that means: trenches and home team.  Both favor Wisconsin, slightly.  Also remember this was a 14-7 game a season ago in Ann Arbor.  Badgers are not afraid of Harbaugh or Michigan.  W, 17-14, 11-0 (8-0)

At Minnesota

• BC – Badgers win the Axe again, are top 3 in all the polls, and head to Indianapolis to to take on Indiana, who miraculously won the east.  The heavily favored Badgers win another league title and head off to the playoffs where, unlike MSU in 2015 and OSU in 2016, the Badgers actually score some points!  12-0
• WC – The sleeper Gophers reclaim the Axe, head off to Indianapolis, and the Hoosiers miraculously won the east.  UM is heavily favored, wins, and spend New Years in Pasadena.  The horror!  The horror!  6-6
• P – Minnesota has many strengths, there is no disputing that.  Their OL is big, their 1-2 rushing attack will be formidable, and their defense has some key players back.  Plus they are the home team.  Yet even the most die hard Gopher fan would have to concede that the Badgers still have a slight advantage along the lines and under center.  The rivalry gets another classic.  W, 31-28, 12-0 (9-0)

Final Notes

Did you notice anything about that schedule?  You saw it, right?  No Penn State, no Ohio State.  Not only is Wisconsin the deepest team in the west but UW and Minnesota are the only contenders to avoid both of the top dogs of this conference.  Nebraska has both (at Penn State), Iowa has both at home, and Northwestern has Penn State.  Since I’m closing in on 3000 words I’ll keep it very simple:

Talented Team (W) X Manageable Initial Schedule (IS) = Win a lot of games (X)
If X ≥ 7 Big Ten Tough Games (BTTG) then the formula looks like this:

WIS = BTTG or, written out:
Wisconsin = Big Ten Title Game