Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Penn State

Penn State’s 2016 season was arguably organized chaos.  Like one of those plate spinners, it was beautiful to watch but it felt like one wrong move would result in calamity.  The first month of the season played right into this feeling with a defensive no-show at Pittsburgh resulting in a 42-39 loss to even the season at 1-1.  Next week, a seven point win over Temple.  A road trip to Ann Arbor went off the rails in a hurry in a 49-10 beatdown.  2-2 with the defense giving up 42 points or more in four weeks.  Forget a league title, a bowl suddenly looked dicey.

The next week Penn State hosted Minnesota and it was more organized chaos: a 29-26 win in OT.  Just like they drew it up.  Next was Maryland.  By far PSU’s best performance up to that point came against the Terps in a 38-14 win and it came just in time for a bye week to prepare for Ohio State.

The Buckeyes came to Happy Valley feeling pretty good about their title odds thanks to Michigan knocking off Penn State already.  Everyone thought it was a two horse race between the Buckeyes and Wolverines.  It should have been after the OSU-PSU game but football is a weird game sometimes.  By every metric Ohio State outplayed the Nittany Lions, yet the final score was 24-21 in favor of the home team.  National and league title predictions were tossed out the window with the major upset.

Now sitting at 5-2 (3-1) with an outside shot at a title Penn State put together some incredible football.  They spanked Purdue and Iowa in back-to-back weeks.  They escaped a pesky road trip to Indiana with a two-touchdown victory.  They stomped Rutgers, 39-0, to push the mark to 9-2 (7-1).

The seven game winning streak would all be for naught if PSU didn’t take care of business against Michigan State as well as have the Buckeyes knock off Michigan.  Everything came up blue and white that day as Penn State crushed the Spartans 45-12 and Ohio State managed to take down Michigan in double overtime.  From 2-2 to 10-2 and a division title.

The Big Ten title game was some more organized chaos.  Wisconsin owned Penn State in the first half, jumping out to a 28-14 lead.  The second half saw much better defense by the Lions as they held the Badgers to just 3 points.  Meanwhile Trace McSorely got the offense going and they put up 24 points to pull off a tight 38-31 victory.

Big Ten east champs, Big Ten champs, and now off the playoffs, right?  Wrong!  In a horrible, horrible call the CFP committee put Ohio State into the playoffs.  The Buckeyes, who lost to Penn State, were humbled in a 31-0 shelling by Clemson.  Penn State meanwhile headed west to the Rose Bowl.  Their epic game with USC was a barn burner that saw the Lions coming up just short in the 52-49 battle, ending their season at 11-3 (8-1).

Even with the CFP snub and coming up just short against a solid USC club, last year was a resounding success for PSU.  Coach James Franklin’s first two seasons were a combined 14-12 (6-10) with a 1-1 bowl record.  The recruiting classes had been fantastic but the on-field execution was lacking.  I’m not sure Franklin’s seat ever got very warm but there were going to be plenty of critics if Penn State faltered last year.  Now the question isn’t if Franklin can put it all together, but where is the ceiling on this team.  Based on the number of key kids back, that ceiling should be pretty dang high.

It all starts with a phenomenal quarterback returning in Trace McSorely.  His stat line looked like this: over 3600 yards, 9.34 YPA, 29 TDs, 8 INTs, 57.9%, 365 rushing yards, 146 carries, 7 TDs.  Two notes on this split.  First, all those rushing stats are second on the team in carries, yards, and scores.  Second note, he compiled all this as a first year starter.  Everyone is expecting a monster senior year from McSorely and for good reason, this kid can play some beautiful ball.

Joining McSorley in the backfield is workhorse RB Saquon Barkley.  He toted the rock 272 times for just shy of 1500 yards, had a 5.5 average, and 18 TDs.  His hands are pretty impressive too with 28 catches for over 400 yards and four scores last year.  One of my podcast co-hosts isn’t very high on Barkley, thinking he is almost overrated.  I think that comes from the fact that McSorley is on the same team and compared to some of the flashier running backs (Zeke Elliott comes to mind immediately) that have been in the Big Ten during Barkley’s career Saquon feels almost understated.  Overrated/underrated/understated….who knows, who cares, just don’t under estimate him because he will run all over you if you do.

The skill position talent doesn’t end in the backfield.  Despite leading WR Chris Godwin now in the NFL there are still a ton of receiving options back.  TE Mike Gesicki had 24 career pass receptions in his first two years.  Last year he doubled that with 48 catches, almost 700 yards, and 5 scores.  The explosive season has him getting NFL buzz and by the end of the year he could be on the Mackey shortlist.

Senior WR DaeSean Hamilton is also back for another go around.  His numbers have diminished as the recruiting talent around him has gotten better around him but he is under 20 catches away from setting PSU”s all time reception mark.  Dude is durable and savvy.  Any receiving unit in this league would love to have him.  Even more WR depth comes from DeAndre Thompkins (27 catches, 440 yards, 1 TD) and Saeed Blacknall (15 / 347 / 3) to round out an impressive list.

Helping make this bevy of offensive talent work is a solid looking OL.  In 2014 and 15 PSU gave up a total of 83 sacks.  Last year it was down to 24.  Ryan Bates and Connor McGovern were two good freshman starters last year and look to do more damage this year.  With really just one position – right guard – to replace, PSU has a lot of depth to pick from.  Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio State’s OLs are getting a little bit more buzz here in the off-season but Penn State’s is really solid and by season’s end could prove to be the best in the conference.

Another way Penn State can attack is with a solid kicker.  Tyler Davis hit all 62 of his extra points last year and knocked in 22 of 24 field goals.  His long last year was only 40 yards so he might not have the biggest boot in the league but he damn well could be the most accurate.

The defense is also loaded with 8 of the top 11 tacklers back.  The secondary shapes up to be among the best in the league, especially with safety Marcus “I’m not a running back” Allen back.  It seems like Allen can be everywhere all the time and as a result racks up a boatload of tackles.  Against Minnesota he had 22 total, 8 solo.  Oh, he also had a hand in blocking a certain field goal against Ohio State.  Kid can play.

About the only concern I have right now as we exit camp and head into the season in a couple weeks is the defensive line.  They had 40 sacks last year, good for 14th nationally, and helped make Penn State the 47th best pass defense but against the run, Penn State struggled.  They finished just 60th nationally but this doesn’t give the whole picture.

Against Pitt, Penn State gave up just 91 passing yards but lost because they were ripped wide open on the ground and gave up 341 rushing yards.  Against Michigan, 326 rushing yards was dropped on ’em by the Wolverines.  They also recorded zero sacks against UM.  In the Rose Bowl, Penn State had just one sack, meanwhile Sam Darnold attempted 53 passes, completed 33 of them, and had over 450 yards and 5 scores.  PSU’s DL is good, but I’m not sure it is great and that is the difference between Penn State winning those three games last year and losing them.

With a packed group back Penn State has to make the shift from hunter to hunted.  It will be interesting to see how they cope with the target on their back now.  One aspect that might help is their schedule is a tad easier than Ohio State’s.  OSU has a harder non-conference slate, goes to Michigan, and Indiana.  Penn State does have to travel to Columbus but gets Michigan and Indiana at home.  PSU’s final month is also easier.  Penn State and Ohio State are clearly the two best teams in the league so using the schedule isn’t the worst idea in the world when trying to predict who wins the east.

2017 Schedule

Akron

• Best Case – Zips were 5-3 last year before losing out and failing to make a bowl.  Even if Bowden’s team is better, they aren’t winning in Happy Valley.  1-0
• Worst Case – Akron played at Wisconsin last year.  The final was 54-10.  1-0
• Prediction – Despite a losing season Akron had two really good WRs last year…neither are on this year’s team.  W, 56-13, 1-0

Pittsburgh

• BC – Uh, Penn State doesn’t give up 341 rushing yards and wins.  2-0
• WC – Pitt is a legit ACC sleeper.  A loss isn’t that far fetched.  1-1
• P – I just have a hard time seeing PSU getting beat so thoroughly up front again.  Fewer rushing yards means less of a chance for Pitt to pull off the upset.  Plus the game is in Beaver Stadium, always a big advantage.  W, 38-21, 2-0

Georgia State

• BC – Outside of scaring the bejesus out of Wisconsin in their 23-17 loss in Madison last year, the Panthers had a long season finishing 3-9 (2-6).  3-0
• WC – Love what GSU is doing with the old Turner Field location in Atlanta for their football program.  Cool times ahead, just not in this game.  2-1
• P – GSU is a young program, starting football in 2010.  They are just 20-62 overall and have never beaten a power five team.  They will at some point, but not in State College against this loaded Nittany Lion team.  W, 49-7, 3-0

At Iowa

• BC – Iowa’s new OC and QB are not a match made in heaven and Iowa struggles to match last year’s measly offensive pop.  4-0
• WC – Hawks have a bit of a history of upsetting Penn State and with their defense, the possibility of a game like Michigan at Iowa last year is, however unlikely, possible.  2-2
• P – Not seeing how Iowa’s secondary can possibly slow this passing attack down enough to have much of a shot in this match-up.  W, 38-10, 4-0 (1-0)

Indiana

• BC – Hoosiers secretly had a nice defense last year, finishing 45th in total D.  The team that put up the most points on IU last year?  This explosive PSU club.  5-0
• WC – Just like last year, PSU wakes up after a surprising 2-2 start.  3-2
• P – Last year’s 45-31 final score somewhat hides the fact that it was 24-21 after three quarters so to totally discount Indiana isn’t too bright but one thing that wasn’t hidden was McSorley shredding this secondary.  Another big passing day equals an easy-ish home win.  W, 35-21, 5-0 (2-0)

At Northwestern

• BC – NU is a sleeper in the west.  PSU is a sleeper national title pick.  6-0
• WC – NU scored a moral victory against Ohio State last year in a 24-20 final.  A scare like that appears to be the worst case sitting here in mid August.  4-2
• P – Saquon Barkley and the portable running game bails Penn State out in this obvious trap game (it is before the bye and Michigan).  W, 28-13, 6-0 (3-0)

Michigan

• BC – Michigan’s youth movement isn’t up to the task at Penn State.  Lions move up to third in the nation.  7-0
• WC – Michigan’s running day feasted last year.  If they put up another 300+ day, they can win again, even on the road.  4-3
• P – Both teams return their QBs and RBs but the Lions have much, much more back on defense.  That side of the ball is the difference in this year’s tango.  W, 28-21, 7-0 (4-0)

At Ohio State

• BC – #1 vs #3 ends with Penn State scoring a huge road win and jumping up to the top spot in the CFP.  8-0
• WC – Ohio State’s offensive line parts the Red Sea Penn State’s DL.  4-4
• P – I love Penn State’s returning talent.  I love Ohio State’s returning talent.  This game is a coin flip so it is pretty futile to try and predict it in August, but, that’s what I like to do.  I’m going with Ohio State for a couple reasons.  First, the Shoe is so freaking hard to win at.  Second, As great as McSorely is, I think J.T. Barrett is just a pinch better.  Barrett is more accurate and a better weapon with his feet.  Finally, OSU outplayed Penn State by every measure last year.  A blocked field goal was the difference in the game.  L, 31-28, 7-1 (4-1)

At Michigan State

• BC – No hangover a week after the big OSU win.  Lions retain the top ranking the AP, Coaches, CFP, and the UPI is brought out of retirement.  9-0
• WC – The season isn’t quite going to plan but the Lions have a great shot at winning their final four no matter how up and down the first eight games prove to be.  5-4
• P – These two teams are just in different places right now.  MSU is young and between stud quarterbacks.  PSU bounces back after the hard fought loss in Columbus.  W, 45-20, 8-1 (5-1)

Rutgers

• BC – Up 50 in the third, PSU gets to rest several key players as they prepare for a trip to Indy and the CFP.  10-0
• WC – This was a 39-0 laugher a season ago.  Growth by Rutgers would be keeping PSU to 28 or less.  Either way, Lions get the victory.  6-4
• P – Easily one of the biggest talent gap games in a power five match-up this fall.  W, 49-7, 9-1 (6-1)

Nebraska

• BC – Nebraska has a hard time with highly ranked clubs.  Just look at last year’s 62-3 debacle against Ohio State.  11-0
• WC – A very young Nebraska team gets a moral victory but the experienced Lions notch another victory.  7-4
• P – Huskers’ lack of returning skill position players is jarring even before you compare it to the grocery list of key players Penn State welcomes back.  I just don’t see how Nebraska competes.  W, 49-10, 10-1 (7-1)

At Maryland

• BC – PSU enjoys a cakewalk in crab cake land.  Terrible joke.  Meanwhile, Minnesota stuns Wisconsin to win the west and Penn State enters as overwhelming 21 point favorites.  They shellac the Gophers to make the CFP.  Once there they get revenge over USC to make the national title game.  All of western PA is dialed in for that opening kickoff against……..I don’t know…….Alabama?  12-0
• WC – Maryland gives a plucky effort on their senior day but Penn State pulls away late.  They don’t match last year’s championship team but they still win 8 games and have another top 10 recruiting class coming in for 2018.  Life is still pretty good for the boys from State College.  8-4
• P – Lions are just in a different orbit compared to UM.  The question about PSU isn’t if they will struggle with Maryland, it is if they can get back to Indy and/or the playoffs.  W, 38-7, 11-1 (8-1)

Final Notes

Penn State will be favored in 11 of their 12 regular season games this year and for that their season kind of hinges on just one game…at Ohio State.  If they win, a return trip to the Big Ten title game is almost a lock.  The CFP is also very much in play.  If they lose, well, they will need some help along the way but still might make it to Indy and beyond.

What makes this Penn State team so unique is not just the plethora of talent back but the purpose they will play with.  Similar to Clemson coming up just short in 2015, Penn State was stunned they weren’t invited to the playoffs last year.  The fact they were snubbed for Ohio State: a team PSU beat, a team that didn’t win the division or the conference has been stewing for months now.  I like when teams play pissed off.  Expect that anger to manifest itself in a singular focus and that focus to make this team in mid-season form the second that Akron game starts.  This is one scary looking ball club.