Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Iowa

It seems like fan bases are made up of four types of fans.  The first are casual fans – don’t get too high or too low, just have fun when they get to go to the game and do some tailgating.  Next comes optimistic fans.  These are the folks who find the silver lining in everything.  They often say things like, “sure we lost, but I thought our line progressed nicely and made some nice running lanes.”  Then you have the uber confident fans.  These are generally what makes up message board trolls.  They also tend to point out the fact that the 1948 Heisman runner-up played at their school and were totally robbed.  Last you have self-hating fans.  These are the people that rip everything.  “The QB is too slow!”  “Our RB can’t find any holes, ever!”  “Our coach is too old/young/conservative/aggressive/dumb/etc.”  I would say all schools have a mix.  Take Alabama, they win all the time.  They probably have 65% confident, 15% casual, 10% self-hating (I knew one!), 10% optimistic.

Iowa has a different split.  We are probably close to 75% self-hating, 10% casual, 10% optimistic, 5% confident.  I try not to be, but more often than not I find things to pick apart about this team.  As a result of this self-hating lots of fans are taking the under in Vegas’s 6.5 wins.  When originally looking at the schedule, I did too.  Lots of fans are also worried about new offensive coordinator and coach’s son, Brian Ferentz.  What will he call?  Will he have any power to do anything different (“our coach is too controlling!”)?  Folks in Hawkeye nation are worried about the quarterback race, our receiving crops, our secondary, our DL.  Fans look at the schedule and just write the team off because it’s tough.  That would be an easy preview for me to write but it would also be the wrong one most likely.

The last go around with Greg Davis resulted in another awful Iowa offense, finishing 117th in total O, 117th in passing, and 64th in rushing.  With numbers those pathetic, how can Brian Ferentz do any worse?  Anyway, the lack of pop cost Iowa early.  Against North Dakota State they couldn’t get anything going and eventually the defense was gassed and the Bison gashed the Hawks in the second half, resulting in a 23-21 loss and dropping Iowa to 2-1.

At Rutgers, a game Iowa was badly outplayed in, the Hawks escaped with a 14-7 win.  Northwestern polished off Iowa by a touchdown before another 14-7 win up in Minnesota.  A 49-35 win at Purdue brought Iowa to 5-2 (3-1) and looking like a contender.  Wisconsin came to Iowa City and despite a solid defensive effort, the offense just wasn’t there in a 17-9 loss.  This was followed by Iowa’s worst performance of the regular season, a 41-14 loss at Penn State.  The season had gotten away from the Hawks and they were sitting at 5-4 (3-3).

Against Michigan, Iowa had by far its best team effort with gutty play after gutty play.  Iowa knocked off the third ranked Wolverines 14-13, then demolished Illinois 28-0, before beating the stuffing out of Nebraska, 40-10.  8-4 (6-3) with three losses by a combined 17 points.  Iowa was hot, finished strong and was amped for their bowl game.  Like Lucy pulling the ball from Charlie Brown though, Iowa whiffed horribly in the Outback Bowl, getting trounced 30-3 to lose their fifth straight bowl game.  Their last postseason win was 2010 and now as a program they have slipped below .500 in bowl games….another thing to self-hate about Iowa!

So a few paragraphs ago I said writing the self-hating downer preview would be easier but would most likely be wrong.  That means Iowa has some good talent back.  It starts right up front.  Seniors Boone Myers and Sean Welsh return to an OL that has the potential to be special.  Athlon lists it as the best OL line unit in the whole league.  The same preview also lists the linebacking group as the best in the league, too.

This isn’t hyperbole.  The LB trio returns all three starters including Josey Jewell.  This group has the potential to be outstanding.  Individually, Jewell should be in contention for various league and national awards.

The running game also returns a true star in Akrum Wadley.  If he stays healthy, he is the jitterbug back Iowa fans love to see and really haven’t seen consistently since Freddie Russell.  Note: Shonn Greene is the best back of the Ferentz era but he doesn’t fit the jitterbuggy description.  Boosting the running game is Nevada grad transfer James Butler.  He is coming off back-to-back 1300+ yard seasons with the Wolfpack.

There are very few other skill position players that are intriguing, especially with Jerminic Smith leaving the program.  Still, a healthy Matt VandeBerg is a veteran presence and maybe one or two young guns or New Mexico grad transfer Matt Quarells will emerge to make the WR group at least reliable and consistent, even if not outstanding or explosive.

The defensive line and secondary are less set than the linebacking group but have some potential.  Manny Rugamba had a nice season for a freshman last year coming up with a couple picks.  He had a great day against Michigan with 4 total tackles, a pick, and 3 passes defended.  Along the line, true freshman A.J. Epenesa turned down Alabama, Florida State, Oklahoma, USC, and others to come to where his dad played as a legacy recruit.  For both these units there appears to be talent and Phil Parker is a proven DC but it is a matter of getting the new pieces to work together.

Quarterback is a different story.  After a solid career C.J. Beathard graduated and is off to the NFL with the Niners.  Nathan Stanley beat out Tyler Wiegers to be the back-up last year but Stanley hardly played.  He attempted nine passes all year.  Wiegers attempted four in 2015.  Between the two of them that is 13 career attempts.  Stanley has been reported as having the bigger arm and is also a sophomore, so one extra year as a starter if he works out.  Wiegers has that extra time in college and from that same article, ESPN is saying he is a little bit more vocal a leader.  Either way, your guess is as good as mine as who will start the opener and if they will make it through all 12 games as the starter.  This is as wide open a camp as I can remember during the Ferentz era.

Even more pressing than the quarterback issue is the schedule.  Obviously I go game by game but it is worth mentioning here, too.  Road trips within the division to Madison, Evanston, and Lincoln loom large.  Ohio State and Penn Stater are monster crossover games.  A solid Wyoming club comes calling in the non-conference.  That is just the tip of the iceberg.  Check it out:

2017 Schedule

Wyoming

• Best Case – The Cowboys’ total defense last year?  122nd.  1-0
• Worst Case – Josh Allen is a really, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY freaking good quarterback.  0-1
• Prediction – As good great as Allen is, his outstanding running back Brian Hill and WR Tanner Gentry are now in the NFL.  That, combined with the bad defense, has me leaning Iowa……….slightly.  W, 31-28, 1-0

At Iowa State

• BC – The Cyclone offense is good on paper but with a ton of new faces along both lines, Iowa should dominate in the trenches.  2-0
• WC – It’s a rivalry, it’s in Ames, ISU has a better looking team in year two under Campbell than last year, an upset isn’t a stretch at all.  0-2
• P – State’s defense last year wasn’t a whole lot better than Wyoming’s, finishing 100th nationally.  Granted the Big 12 inflates a lot of numbers but with over 218 rushing yard per game allowed, I think Wadley and the ground game carry the Hawks to another narrow victory.  W, 21-17, 2-0

North Texas

• BC – Mean Green made a bowl and could be a sleeper in C-USA but they shouldn’t be able to push Iowa too much in Iowa City.  3-0
• WC – IF Iowa starts 0-2, you better believe they work their tails off to find a way to win this game.  1-2
• P – All due respect to North Texas, but this is by far Iowa’s easiest non conference game.  I think they take full advantage with the passing attack getting some quality work in.  W, 42-14, 3-0

Penn State

• BC – An incredible defensive effort at home results in a similar 14-13 final like the Michigan game last year.  4-0
• WC – Brian Ferentz can’t call a good game offensively and the quarterback play is wretched.  1-3
• P – Playing at home and a good looking defense could make Iowa pull the upset once or twice out of ten but Penn State returns a boatload of talent on both sides of the ball so they are the safe pick in August.  L, 38-10, 3-1 (0-1)

At Michigan State

• BC – When Colin Cowherd is being nastier than normal, Iowa is doing something right.  5-0
• WC – MSU is having a classic bounce-back season and Iowa is in a death spiral.  1-4
• P – Despite all the self-hating tendency Iowa fans can have, the Hawks are the better team on paper.  The defensive struggle goes Iowa’s way.  W, 17-10, 4-1 (1-1)

Illinois

• BC – The Lovie Smith experiment is going dreadfully wrong and Iowa takes advantage, suddenly finding themselves ranked 15th nationally.  6-0
• WC – Passing?  Who needs passing?  Read my prediction to find out why Iowa can still win this game even without a QB.  2-4
• P – Iowa won this last year 28-0 in a howling wind.  The wind was so bad, Iowa pretty much ignored the passing game and only tossed it 17 times, completing 9, for just 80 yards.  The OL and the ground game carries Iowa to victory.  W, 28-10, 5-1 (2-1)

At Northwestern

• BC – Austin Carr graduated!  This lets Iowa load the box and stuff the ground game.  Moving up the rankings and Jim Rome’s head explodes.  7-0
• WC – NU has a big advantage under center with a proven winner in Clayton Thorson.  If the game turns into a track meet, I’m not sure Iowa can keep up.  2-5
• P – Northwestern’s biggest weakness appears to be their front seven.  Iowa’s solid OL paves the way in another bruising game.  W, 35-24, 6-1 (3-1)

Minnesota

• BC – Gophers are also welcoming a new starting quarterback and have big question marks at who will catch the balls from said new starter.  8-0
• WC – UM’s huge OL and 1-2 punch at running back neutralizes Iowa’s front and then the other issue’s for Iowa are harder to disguise.  2-6
• P – It will be a total grinder but I think Iowa’s outstanding LB group slows Minnesota’s rushing attack just enough for the Hawks to triumph in a classic Big Ten slug fest.  W, 17-14, 7-1 (4-1)

Ohio State

• BC – Upsetting Penn State is something Iowa has done multiple times.  Beating OSU?  Eh, not so much.  Cowherd is relieved.  8-1
• WC – Bye bye bowl game.  2-7
• P – Buckeyes return more players, better players, and have a set star quarterback.  Don’t really see much shot in this one.  L, 35-10,, 7-2 (4-2)

At Wisconsin

• BC – One of UW QB’s best game last year was against Iowa.  Despite Hornibrook playing well, the final was only 17-9.  Iowa gets a huge win for the division race.  9-1
• WC – The Ferentz detractors are sharpening their knives.  2-8
• P – Two very similar teams but UW has a tad more back defensively and are the home team.  This will be like the rock ’em sock ’em game in the 80s with both teams exchanging blow after blow.  L, 14-10, 7-3 (4-3)

Purdue

• BC – Purdue is in the middle of a winless season, giving the Hawks a much needed soft foe after that grind of NU, UM, OSU, and UW.  10-1
• WC – Despite the awful offensive play under center, Iowa’s LB and OL are still playing with passion and take advantage of hosting one of the Big Ten’s worst clubs.  3-8
• P – I expect Wadley to off against the 115th ranked rush defense last year.  Pencil him in for about 175 yards and 3 scores.  W, 38-10, 8-3 (5-3)

At Nebraska

• BC – Iowa smoked Nebraska year ago and they repeat the feat, locking up another trip to Indianapolis.  Even better, the Hoosiers somehow win the east, making the Hawks 14 point favorites.  They live up to it and head to the CFP where they proceed to get embarrassed in a bowl game….again.  11-1
• WC – With an equally young team, it is Nebraska that navigates an extremely difficult schedule to make a good bowl, making Iowa’s long season that much harder to stomach.  3-9
• P – As bad as Iowa’s quarterback situation looks, Nebraska’s might even be worse.  Factor in changing defenses and less skill position talent back, I’ll take Iowa picking up another narrow victory.  W, 28-24, 9-3 (6-3)

Final Notes

Undeniably, Iowa has some pieces to love.  The OL, the LB group, and Akrum Wadley all point to this being a bowl team.  If the secondary and DL also perform well, Iowa should have another top 30 defense.  The reason it is difficult putting them past Wisconsin are the concerns about the passing game and having a first year offensive coordinator.

One of the hallmarks of a Ferentz coached team is the margin of error.  His teams need to be extremely well coached and game plans well called by the coordinators to put the kids in the right spot.  When that happens, well, 3 BCS level bowl games speaks for itself but it is also a hard way to win.  There’s a reason five of my predicted nine victories are by 7 points or less.  Flip a couple, the season doesn’t look as good.  Flip enough, Iowa doesn’t even make a bowl.  Of course one of the losses is also by 7 points or less so by the same thinking, if everything goes right for Iowa and they flip enough games, a surprise trip to Indianapolis is possible.