Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Michigan

The last two years at Michigan have been successful to almost any other program in the nation but Michigan.  Harbaugh inherited a very talented club in 2015 and promptly took them 10-3 (6-2) with a big bowl win but it wasn’t enough for a league title and Ohio State crushed them.  Last year expectations were through the roof.  A 9-0 (6-0) start seemed to point to the magical season everyone in the Mitten expected.

There were some issues disguised by that start though.  First, the first five games were all at home and the Wisconsin game showed that Michigan was vulnerable to good defensive teams in a 14-7 victory.  Second the two road trips the team had before 11/12/16 were at awful Rutgers and Michigan State, who struggled mightily last year.  MSU showed that Michigan was a bit vulnerable on the road though with a nine point margin of victory.  Maryland was polished off a week after MSU and then the Iowa game.

Iowa was a cornered team.  Back-to-back losses had dropped them to 5-4 (3-3).  The season was on the brink, they had nothing but pride and home fans to play for.  Helping in this effort was an Iowa defense that was quite strong and would finish 21st in the nation in total defense.  It was by far Michigan’s toughest road trip to that point and when they couldn’t pour it on Iowa early they appeared to press more and more.

During that game the running game was stuffed: 98 yards on 35 carries.  Wilton Speight got banged up but was never taken out of the game and the passing game struggled: 11/26, 103 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT.  Iowa’s offense wasn’t much better but Akrum Wadley ripped off enough runs – including one where he juked Jabrill Peppers out of his shoes – and freshman Keith Duncan hit both of his field goals, one was the game winner, to pull off the upset.

After a shaky win against Indiana, Michigan would enter The Game with everything to play for.  A win would put them into the Big Ten title game and possibly the CFP.  Instead they lost in double overtime, Michigan’s fifth straight loss in the series.  A one point bowl loss would drop Michigan to its second straight 10-3 season.

A controversial OT game, and two one-point losses kept Michigan from potential immortality but that’s what makes college football so intriguing.  For Michigan to get back to the ten-win level though, Harbaugh will need his young guns to play well beyond their years and play up to their recruiting rankings because unlike last August, there is very little returning.

Outside the extremely good recruiting classes Harbaugh has assembled there are two areas that are immediately bright.  The first is returning quarterback Wilton Speight.  In his first year as a starter he hit over 61% of his passes for over 2500 yards.  His YPA was pretty good too at 7.67.  18 TDs to 7 INTs were also a good starting point for the kid.  Under Harbaugh’s tutelage and success with QBs, expect Speight’s numbers to climb and him to become one of the Big Ten’s best this fall.  I should interject here that Harbaugh has been coy this off-season about who his starter will be but personally I would be stunned if it isn’t Speight.  He was too good last year in my opinion.

The other area of strength is at running back.  Yes D’Veon Smith graduated but the second, third, and fourth leading rushers are all back.  Chris Evans had 614 yards on 88 carries with 4 scores.  Karan Higdon and Ty Isaac each had over 70 rushes and each had over 400 yards.  Higdon had six scores and Isaac had five.  This is an extremely talented and deep pool to draw upon for whatever rotation emerges as the season goes on.

With so many young players and/or new starters to rely upon there are areas of concern.  The obvious one is on defense.  11 of the top 13 tacklers from last year’s club needs to be replaced.  Additionally the offensive line looks to be behind several Big Ten foes.  The biggest concern for me though is at receiving.  Amara Darboh, Jake Butt, and Jehu Chesson are all in the NFL.  The leading receiver back is Grant Perry with 183 yards last season and just 13 catches.  After him the next leading receiver is Khalid Hill, a fullback.  I have no doubt Michigan’s deeply talented roster can address some, maybe even all, of these concerns but as of now they are low on experience.

In addition to this lack of experience the Wolverine schedule does them no favors.  Road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin look tough.  Ohio State and Minnesota visiting Ann Arbor are no cupcakes.  A trip to Indiana is also harder than most years.  Lastly, the season opens with a good Florida team in Texas for the Advocare Classic.  This is not an ideal schedule for a team that will need some time to gel.

2017 Schedule

Michigan vs Florida (Game played in AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas)

• Best Case – Florida is a lot like Michigan, tons of upside but some questions to figure out before they can get the the SEC title game.  With the game at a truly neutral site, it feels like a coin toss.  1-0
• Worst Case – Sometimes coin flips don’t go your way.  0-1
• Prediction – Florida has a massive offensive advantage in the passing game.  Leading WRs Antonio Callaway* and Brandon Powell are back as well as TE DeAndre Goolsby.  These guys finished first, second, and third in yardage last year for the Gators.  With a competent QB in Luke Del Rio back, I expect Florida to be able to pass their way to victory.  L, 31-21, 0-1

  *Callaway is one of seven Gators suspended for this game.  With several weeks before the season there is still a chance the suspension is rescinded (not unprecedented) plus Michigan was rated by one metric as 127th of 129 teams in returning production.  Still leaning UF’s way, slightly.

Cincinnati

• BC – Bearcats fired their coach for a reason last year.  Luke Fickell was a great hire but winning in Michigan Stadium?  Nah.  2-0
• WC – UC is an interesting team because they have Hayden Moore at QB back and some decent offensive weapons but they’re at best a sleeper in their division, not a team ready to stroll into Ann Arbor and expect more than a moral victory.  1-1
• P – Bearcats best hope at winning this game is to slice and dice the Michigan secondary.  They have a QB and they have leading receivers Devin Grey and Kahlil Lewis back but I’m not sure the OL will be able to hold up against a Big Ten caliber pass rush.  W, 38-17, 1-1

Air Force

• BC – One of the things that made the Falcons’ option so deadly last year was WR Jalen Robinette catching 35 passes for 959 yards – an astronomical 27.4 yards per.  Luckily for everyone on AF’s schedule this year, he graduated.  3-0
• WC – Option teams are seldom easy to play and with Timothy McVey back as well as both QBs who played last year, there is a slight chance for a hiccup.  1-2
• P – Another key graduate for AF is their outstanding defensive player Weston Steelhammer.  Air Force went 10-3 last year and have a good shot at winning their division in the Mountain West.  To take them lightly is flirting with disaster but between Robinette, Steelhammer, and RB Jacobi Owens all finishing up their careers, I expect Michigan to get past this underrated club.  W, 35-17, 2-1

At Purdue

• BC – Big talent gap in this one combined with Purdue having a brand new system.  Easy peasy.  4-0
• WC – Depth and talent favors UM so much, I don’t see any doomsday outcome for the Wolverines.  2-2
• P – Purdue’s rebuilding secondary versus a talented QB favors Michigan big time, even with the questions at receiving UM has right now.  W, 35-17, 3-1 (1-0)

Michigan State

• BC – UM has a quarterback and MSU….doesn’t.  5-0
• WC – Thanks to being the slightly more experienced team, the Spartans make the plays they didn’t in last year’s nine point loss.  2-3
• P – This is a bigger deal for MSU than it is Michigan so I expected them to play above their heads and keep it close but the home team will prevail.  W, 28-24, 4-1 (2-0)

At Indiana

• BC – By week six the new faces are playing like grizzled vets and Michigan is on fire.  6-0
• WC – The last two years have been extremely tight affairs and this is IU’s best team (on paper at least) in years.  2-4
• P – Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.  Indiana lets an opportunity to knock Michigan off slips through their grasps again.  W, 28-24, 5-1 (3-0)

At Penn State

• BC – PSU won the east last year so they beat Michigan, right?  Wrong, Michigan crushed them 49-10.  Harbaugh draws up another awesome game plan.  7-0
• WC – The youth is just getting crushed under the weight of the extremely tough schedule and they drop yet another game.  2-5
• P – Both teams have QBs back.  Both teams have RBs back.  Both teams do not have their defenses back.  PSU has 8 of their top 11 tacklers back and Marcus “I’m not a running back” Allen anchors a solid secondary.  L, 28-21, 5-2 (3-1)

Rutgers

• BC – A repeat of last year’s 78-0 laugher.  8-0
• WC – Much like the Purdue match-up, Michigan just has too much in the tank even if it is unproven potential here in August.  3-5
• P – It won’t be as bad as last year but this is still extremely one sided based on the on paper talent.  W, 42-17, 6-2 (4-1)

Minnesota

• BC – Speight is a Heisman candidate and Michigan is top five.  9-0
• WC – Minnesota’s rushing attack has the potential to be deadly.  If the defense struggles to come together as the season wears on, Gophers have a shot.  3-6
• P – I picked both teams to finish third in their division because each has a ton of upside but a lot of it is unknown; however, Michigan has two big check marks for this game.  Big advantage at QB and are the home team.  Good enough for me.  W, 28-21, 7-2 (5-1)

At Maryland

• BC – A repeat of last year’s 59-3 beat-down.  10-0
• WC – Just like Minnesota, Maryland has a rushing attack that has the has the potential to be lethal.  Just like 2011 when OSU went 6-7 and very little went right, Michigan is having a rare down year as they new faces just aren’t working well as a team.  3-7
• P – Apples to apples, Michigan is still more talented.  Maryland has the ability to keep it interesting for a time but eventually the Maize and Blue pull away.  W, 35-21, 8-2 (6-1)

At Wisconsin

• BC – Rise to number one in the CFP poll after an impressive win in Madison.  11-0
• WC – Wisconsin rises to number one in the CFP poll after dispatching a reeling Michigan team.  3-8
• P – When two teams look like a total toss up in August I usually look at which team is at home and which team is better in the trenches.  The game is in Madison and UW’s front seven looks rock solid.  L, 17-14, 8-3 (6-2)

Ohio State

• BC – #1 in the AP, coaches, and CFP.  Off to Indianapolis to play Northwestern that miraculously won the west.  UM enters as 28 point favorites and lives up that.  12-0
• WC – Ohio State is #1 in the AP, coaches, and CFP.  Off to Indianapolis to play Northwestern that miraculously won the west.  OSU enters as 28 point favorites and lives up that.  3-9
• P – Going to be a lot of talent on the field but OSU has a little bit more of that talent coming back with experience.  Case in point, the defense returns their top five leaders in sacks.  L, 31-24, 8-4 (6-3)

Final Notes

If you couldn’t tell already this is one of the hardest teams to predict this season.  With so many new starters and so little experience our best guess is to look at the players’ recruiting rank then assume the kid lives up to that billing.  That’s not exactly a great proposition for a team facing this rough a schedule.

Still, there is enough there to rack up a lot of wins and make a bowl.  Great coaching staff, solid starting QB, and good running backs are more than enough to make Michigan competitive.  In fact, if I had a choice between 11 wins or 7 wins and those are the only outcomes I’m allowed to pick from, I’ll gamble and take 11.  If you look at my prediction, I already have them winning 8 and of their four losses, three are by 7 points or less.  So, yeah, Michigan will be a factor in the east, even if we can only name two players right now.