Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Minnesota

The last two years of Gopher football has felt like a daytime soap opera at times with new characters coming and going.  Let’s recap.  This time two years ago, Jerry Kill was entering his fourth season at Minnesota.  He, and his staff, had overseen a turnaround from 3 wins to 6 to 8 in 2013 and 2014.  I say staff because Kill missed time in 2013 when Tracy Clayes filled in as the head man.  More about him in a bit.

The team started well at 3-1.  After a 1-2 open to league play the team was 4-3 and the season took an unfortunate turn when coach Kill resigned for health reasons.  In steps Tracy Clayes as interim coach.  The team goes  2-4 (1-4) under Clayes but made a bowl and they won it.  Clayes had been a Kill assistant for 21 years and was an accomplished DC.  In fact, Minnesota’s defenses in 2013, 14, and 15 were all top 50 nationally.  The university took a low-risk gamble on Clayes by giving him a short contract with a low buyout.  For Clayes it was a crack at his first head job and was at a power league school with a lot of returning talent.

In 2015 the offense finished just 84th and was extremely stale at times.  Clayes first order of business was to shake up the offensive staff.  It paid off, no, wait, it backfired as Minnesota finished 94th in total offense last year.  The season was still successful though as the Gopher defense shined, finishing 20th in the nation.

UM opened 3-0 in non-conference play with narrow wins against Oregon State and Colorado State as well as drubbing a FCS team.  It wasn’t a great looking start but wins are wins.  The next two weeks were losses but one was an overtime game at Penn State and the other was a 7 point loss to Iowa.  Despite both being Ls, the Gophers developed their defensive identity in these games.

The next stretch of schedule was at Maryland, Rutgers, at Illinois, and Purdue.  Gophers took full advantage of this stretch going 4-0 and pushing their record to 7-2 (4-2).  A seven point loss at Nebraska snapped the streak but a win against Northwestern gave Minnesota their 8th win, the third 8-win season in four years.  A fourteen point loss at Wisconsin soured the season and then…frankly madness.

A bubbling drama all year was 10 players being disciplined, suspended, investigated, and so on for an accused role in a sexual assault case.  Communication from the university to the team was poor and when their teammates were suspended an additional time for the bowl, the players reacted.  The team boycotted football activities and put the bowl in doubt.  Clayes said he supported his team’s first amendment rights.  The university released information about the case, the boycott ended but it looked bad for all parties, possibly no look worse than for the head coach.

Then another plot twist!  Despite the boycott eating into practice time and playing a really good Washington State team in the bowl, Minnesota won.  They actually won pretty convincingly too, dominating the second half and holding WSU to just 39 rushing yards.  UM’s woeful offense kept the final close, 17-12, but it was obvious who the better team was that day.  Still, the awful look for the school leading up to the bowl combined with the low buyout combined with Clayes appearing to not have the “feel” of a head coach, Minnesota pulled the cord, even after a 9-4 (5-4) season.

Clayes has yet to get another job but the extremely conservative Kansas native in liberal Minneapolis was always going to be a weird marriage even if it worked.  I think Clayes would be a sound addition to any defensive staff.  Going above .500 in the Big Ten, winning two bowls, and showing some head coaching chops should also get him a look at some smaller schools, especially ones where Clayes’ politics might fit better.  Fit isn’t something you notice if your team is winning but in the face of losing and/or controversy, it becomes extremely noticeable.  For example, Ask Rich Rod how well he fit at Ann Arbor when losing.  Ask the administrators at Ole Miss how Hugh Freeze fit with the image of their school when controversy started.  Clayes was stuck between supporting the university his team was pissed at or defending his players who were unknowingly supporting teammates accused of disgusting acts.  In the end, Clayes tried to stick to the middle and give a tepid support to his players but even that was enough to burn bridges with the administration.  It was a gamble and it didn’t pay off.

On the other hand, the university took a gamble in firing Clayes that did pay and it has the potential to pay well.  They managed to get one of the jewels of last year’s coaching carousel with P.J. Fleck.  Fleck is a wunderkind who got his first head coaching job at just 32 years old with Western Michigan.  His debut season went horribly wrong with a 1-11 (1-7) finish but solid recruiting classes nationally and extremely impressive classes compared to the rest of the MAC made the Broncos a sleeping giant.  In 2014 the team went 8-5 (6-2).  2015 was the same record but a co-division championship.  Last year it all aligned with a perfect 13-0 (8-0) season with a MAC title and a trip to the Cotton Bowl.  The bowl started horribly for WMU, spotting Wisconsin 14 points.  Despite losing, mostly because of that disastrous opening frame, WMU held their own winning the other three quarters 16-10.

It is tough to get a read on Fleck.  He probably could have parlayed his 2014 season into another job, such as Urban Meyer going to the Mountain West after some success with Bowling Green but he didn’t.  He stayed four years at Western and really didn’t seem to entertain much interest in leaving even after the Cotton Bowl.  Many were surprised he even took the Gopher gig, feeling if he kept winning tons of games at Western he would eventually get a look at a bigger name, a la Peterson staying at Boise before Washington opened up.

Of course Fleck is a Midwestern guy from Illinois and played at Northern Illinois, a little bit before Jerry Kill was there.  Maybe those NIU ties between Kill and Fleck created a friendship?  Who knows.  If Fleck had always dreamed of being in the Big Ten, his options last year were slim.  Purdue and Minnesota were the only openings and based on the returning talent, taking the Purdue job is a huge gamble.  There is also no coach clearly on the hot seat as all the places that recently made changes have second year coaches for 2017.  That would mean Fleck might have to stay at Western another year or two.  What happens if the team slips?

So is Fleck a ladder climber that is going to bolt Minnesota?  Maybe.  Is he a Midwestern guy who wanted one of the 14 jobs in the Big Ten and felt Minnesota offered him the best chance at inheriting a good team?  Maybe.  Was he closer to Kill than people realized?  Possibly.  Is he a liberal guy who likes what the Twin Cities have to offer?  It’s anyone’s guess.  Like I said, hard read.  Maybe he takes the LSU job if Ed Orgeron flames out as a head man again.  Maybe he stays at Minnesota for 20 years.  We have literally no read on Fleck.

What we do have a good read on though is what kind of team Fleck inherited from the Kill/Clayes era.  It all starts with a solid 1-2 punch at running back.  Rodney Smith had 1158 yards and 16 scores on 240 carries, resulting in a workmanlike 4.8 yards per pop.  Shannon Brooks added an additional 650 yards and 5 scores on 138 carries, an almost identical 4.7 yards per.  These two solid backs also have the privilege of playing behind a mammoth OL.  The line has some experience as well as some new faces to break in but they all have something in common: size.  UM will probably be able to have all five starting linemen at 320 pounds or more.

That defense that finished 20th last year is also shaping up to be another killer unit.  An experienced LB corps as well as DT Steven Richardson should be good enough to keep the front seven competitive while the rest of the DL comes together.  The secondary though, wow.  There’s a reason WSU’s air raid struggled in that bowl.  Antoine Winfield is a stud.  Even if the secondary is a tad young, Winfield’s veteran leadership is enough to make me believe in the secondary.

Two other positives Fleck inherited…a schedule to work with and a kicker.  More about that below in the week-to-week preview but no Penn State and no Ohio State is such a blessing.  In fact, there’s a great chance Minnesota is already bowl eligible with six wins before Halloween.  As for the kicker, Emmit Carpenter may only have one year as the starter but the junior was great last year.  He hit 43/44 PATs and 22/24 FGs.  He went 8/8 between 40-49 yards and 2/2 from 50 and beyond.  Carpenter being a Groza candidate is not a stretch.

So why do I have Minnesota finishing behind the Hawks and Badgers in the west?  Despite all those positives returning there are still some very real concerns.  The first is more a broad idea and that is continuity.  This will be UM’s third head coach, third OC, and third DC since the start of the 2015 season.  There’s a reason “stability” and “continuity” are popular buzzwords surrounding football…with so many players, positions, and schemes, frequent and/or radical change can result in short term disaster before long term payoff.  Just look at WMU going to Fleck.  A bowl in 2011 and 4-8 in 2012 imploded to the one win Fleck debut season in 2013.

A more specific concern though is at quarterback and the passing game.  Mitch Leidner was as divisive a talent as I can remember.  His strong arm and underrated running skills made him an intriguing prospect.  He also threw for well over 2000 yards his junior and senior seasons and nearly did as a sophomore, too.  His accuracy – never above 60% and 32 career INTs to 36 career TDs – drove his detractors wild.  Still, he was experienced and oversaw multiple eight win season before graduating so despite never living up to his full potential, he certainly didn’t stink as much as some Gopher fans would have you believe.

Replacing him is a grab bag of unknown’s.  Last year’s back-up, Conor Rhoda has 17 pass attempts in his career, 16 last season.  He’s also a senior meaning Fleck would only get to enjoy his talents for one season, so it might be better to roll with someone younger.  Of course Rhoda’s age doesn’t come with experience in the system because as I noted before, UM is on their third head coach and OC in two seasons.

Next is Demry Croft.  The sophomore redshirted last year but in 2015 he did attempt 17 passes.  Croft is a duel threat kid who has been wowing at practice.  Gopher specific sites, including The Daily Gopher, list him as the number one.  There are two wild cards though.  One is 3-star freshman Tanner Morgan.  This kid is a P.J. Fleck prospect and the only QB on the roster that Fleck recruited.  He was also offered scholarships by Wake Forest and Louisville, a school that has produced a good QB recently.  You know, what’s his face, the guy that won some trophy last year.  The other wildcard is Seth Green.  A four star recruit in the 2016 class, he was offered scholarships by tons of schools but it it came down to Minnesota and Oregon before he decided to go with the Gophers.  He is also a duel threat kid but it sounds like his passing isn’t quite there yet to be tasked with leading Minnesota.

Then there is the other passing game concern: who will catch the balls?  Minnesota had just two players catch 20 or more passes last year.  One was running back Rodney Smith.  The other was Drew Wolitarsky who had 66 and has graduated.  The third leading receiver, also moved on.  So were these guys not catching passes because of Leidner or their talent?  If it is talent, uh-oh.  UM’s leading returning receiver is Rashad Still who caught just 18 passes for 349 yards and zero scores.  Yikes.

Holy crap!  I’ve gone over 2000 words just on recapping last year and the returning pieces!  I need to get to the schedule and keep that brief!

2017 Schedule

Buffalo

• Best Case – Bulls went 2-10 last year.  1-0
• Worst case – Bulls had the 123rd ranked rush defense last year.  1-0
• Prediction – Tyree Jackson is an intriguing sophomore QB for UB after a decent freshman season.  I think he can make the Bulls relevant again in his career, just not in Minneapolis week one.  W, 35-10, 1-0

At Oregon State

• BC – Last year’s starting QB, Marcus McMaryion, couldn’t hold on to his job and transferred to Fresno State.  Huh?  What is going on in Corvallis.  2-0
• WC – Ryan Nall had a nice season with 951 rushing yards, 13 TDs, and 6.5 avg.  The dreaded trip west for Big Ten teams plus Nall having a killer day results in a disappointing loss.  1-1
• P – UB’s rush defense was awful last year.  OSU’s wasn’t much better at 101st.  Smith/Brooks roll.  W, 31-14, 2-0

Middle Tennessee

• BC – Blue Raiders won 8 games last year but struggled against bowl caliber teams going 2-4 in those match-ups.  3-0
• WC – Blue Raiders won 8 games last year thanks in large part to a fantastic QB, Brent Stockstill, who has over 7000 yards, 61 TDs and just 17 INTs in two years as the starter.  Plus they beat SEC Missouri and nearly beat Vanderbilt.  1-2
• P – I really like this Mid Tennessee team.  I think they could win C-USA this year and are clearly Minnesota’s toughest non conference test.  Still, it is a home game for UM and MT’s other key weapon from last year, I’Tavious Mathers, is now on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster.  Gophers escape.  W, 28-24, 3-0

Maryland

• BC – A common refrain for Minnesota, rushing.  Last year they put up 290 yards against the Terps.  4-0
• WC – These teams are identical: good rushing upside, zero answers at QB.  Maryland figures out their quarterback before the Gophers.  1-3
• P – Going with the Gophers for two reasons: the first is the game is in TCF Bank Stadium.  The second is despite similar amounts of talent returning offensively, I think the Gophers have a little bit more back defensively.  W, 28-14, 4-0 (1-0)

At Purdue

• BC – Ground game keeps pounding weaker clubs. 5-0
• WC – Purdue’s offense is a way better than expected as Jeff Brohm has his team performing very well in the passing game.  Meanwhile Minnesota is suffering through another wretched season offensively.  1-4
• P – Gophers had a shaky 44-31 win last year despite Purdue producing just  23 rushing yards on 28 carries. An upset is a remote possible, but smart money is with Minnesota. W, 31-21, 5-0 (2-0)

Michigan State

• BC – Spartans return four starting DL players but they struggled to make big plays, generating just 11 sacks.  The Gopher OL eats them up.  6-0
• WC – No passing game = one dimensional attack.  One dimensional attack = Smith/Brooks bottled up.  1-5
• P – The better team in the trenches is Minnesota plus they are enjoying home cooking this year.  W, 28-21, 6-0 (3-0)

Illinois

• BC – Illinois’s QB prospects are equally unknown but the rest of their talent lags well behind UM.  7-0
• WC – All due respect to a fellow Big Ten school, but…I really see no way UM blows this.  So much better along the lines.  2-5
• P – Even if Minnesota doesn’t quite get the QB play to steal the division, they look strong enough to rack up a lot of wins against lesser foes, especially at home.  W, 28-14, 7-0 (4-0)

At Iowa

• BC – Gee, guess what, yet another Big Ten west team with a new quarterback.  Minnesota enters the top 10.  8-0
• WC – Gee, guess what, yet another Big Ten west team with a new quarterback playing well while Minnesota longs for Mitch Leidner to have another year of edibility.  2-6
• P – Some publications have Iowa with the best LB group in the league.  They bottle up Minnesota’s rushing attack and steal the game much like last year’s 14-7 affair.  L, 17-14, 7-1 (4-1)

At Michigan

• BC – Maize and Blue graduated a ton of talent and had an equal amount of talent depart early for the NFL.  Statement win for the Maroon and Gold.  9-0
• WC – One player back…a quarterback.  Wilton Speight shreds the Gopher secondary.  2-7
• P – Michigan’s recruiting classes have been scary good.  Even with a lot of new faces, I think Harbaugh still has enough talent to slip past the Gophers in Ann Arbor.  L, 28-21, 7-2 (4-2)

Nebraska

• BC – Gophers move up to 5th in the CFP poll.  Win out and they are in the playoffs.  10-0
• WC – Major upheaval going on in Lincoln as they have zero answers at quarterback and are desperately changing their defenses to try and improve on that side of the ball.  Gopher’s extremely slim bowl hopes stay alive by picking off the Huskers.  3-7
• P – Minnesota has advantages all over the field and are the home team.  It is harder to construct a compelling argument in August in why NU would win this game than it is to do the smart thing and ride with the Gophers.  W, 28-17, 8-2 (5-2)

At Northwestern

• BC – NU’s biggest weakness on paper right now is their DL.  Minnesota’s biggest strengths play right into that.  11-0
• WC – UM’s biggest weakness on paper is their passing game and being able to win track meet games.  Northwestern’s biggest strength plays right into that.  3-8
• P – I really don’t think I can put it any better than I did in my NU preview:This looks like a total toss up. In my notes I have each team with their record one game better or worse with this written in the margin: Minnesota/Northwestern game a toss up.  In many ways these teams are yin and yang.  Northwestern relies heavily on one running back, Minnesota has a 1-2 punch in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.  NU’s OL is a weakness, UM’s has some experience but are probably going to be 320+ pounds at all five positions.  NU’s secondary is experienced but were 106th last year in passing, Minnesota’s is young but has a proven stud in Antoine Winfield and finished 66th in passing defense last year.  NU has a proven QB, Minnesota doesn’t.  NU has the second longest tenured coach in Fitz with established coordinators.  UM is on their third head coach, third OC and third DC since 2015.  NU’s front seven is their biggest weakness, UM has DT Seven Richardson and an experienced LB group making that a possible strength.

  I literally have no clue who is going to win.  My gut put Minnesota as 3rd in the west and Northwestern 4th, but my gut also says: “Go with the proven QB and the home team” which is Northwestern.  At the end of the day, I’m going to go with Northwestern. They lost 29-12 last year but they out-gained Minnesota and Thorson had a killer day throwing the ball.  The problem was they went just 2/15 on third and couldn’t run worth a lick.  Throson also fumbled twice – one stalled a good looking drive down 6-0 and the other set up a field goal.  In many ways the Wildcats outplayed the Gophers last year but just had horrible luck on the road.  Maybe they get those bounces at home this year. L, 28-27, 8-3 (5-3)

Wisconsin

• BC – Gophers win the Axe for the first time since 2003, goes undefeated, are ranked 3rd in the nation, and are the favorite in the Big Ten title game after Indiana miraculously wins the east.  12-0
• WC – Wisconsin wins the Axe yet again, goes undefeated, are ranked 3rd in the nation, and are the favorite in the Big Ten title game after Indiana miraculously wins the east.  3-9
• P – Wisconsin has slight advantages at QB, OL, and front seven.  Despite UM’s many strengths and playing at home, Wisconsin escapes with the tightest Axe game since 2009’s three-point tango.  L, 31-28, 8-4 (5-4)

Final Notes

This is by far my longest preview yet and I think that is a testament to just how intriguing this Minnesota team is.  I don’t believe for a second that their worst case season will happen.  That would mean losing a ton of winnable and manageable games just because their QB play is lacking.  That probably won’t happen because of their defense and running games.

As for my prediction to the best case and finishing in that 8-12 win range: extremely likely.  Even with a stumble in the non conference they would hit the Big Ten no worse than 2-1.  Once there Maryland, Purdue, MSU, and Illinois are near locks.  Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern are all highly winnable.  In fact, the second after posting the Northwestern preview, I was already having buyer’s remorse at picking the Wildcats.

At Michigan and Wisconsin are hard games, no doubt about it.  But would you rather have your toughest teams be Michigan, the third best team in the east, and Wisconsin, a flawed but deep team with a lot of upside or taking on the combo of Ohio State and Penn State?  I’ll put it this way, and this is the highest praise an Iowa City native/Wisconsin grad can frame it…….I would be MORE surprised to see Minnesota miss a bowl than to see them in Indianapolis vying for a league title.