Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Indiana

The last few seasons Indiana has been politely knocking on the door but now is the time to kick that door in and make a statement.  The Hoosiers return too much talent to not take advantage right here, right now.  In 2016 a nightmare day passing the ball against Wake Forest resulted in five interceptions and one pick six, prevented IU from starting 4-0.  A five point loss to Nebraska as well as two tough road trips (OSU and Northwestern) brought Indiana to 3-4.  They rebounded against Maryland and at Rutgers before two more competitive losses to Penn State and at Michigan put them on the brink of a losing season at 5-6.  Knocking off rival Purdue followed by a two-point loss to Utah ended in a 6-7 (4-5) season but the team had to feel they left some wins out there.

Before the season started a great hire was made to boost the defense.  Tom Allen had done incredible work at Ole Miss and South Florida before being brought in.  It was a homecoming of sorts as IU is Allen’s alma mater.  The match was made in heaven and it showed on the field with IU finishing 45th in total defense, up from 121st in 2015.  After the regular season, complaints of player mistreatment by Kevin Wilson resulted in him resigning before the bowl.  Allen was given the interim tag and then given the head job.  As good as Wilson was at turning around the offense, his lack of attention to defense before hiring Allen combined with erratic play always made his head coaching chops debated.  We don’t know how Allen will pan out but the players seemed to love him and go all in on him so the coaching change may prove to be an upgrade.

One of the first things Allen did was bring in a solid offensive coordinator.  Mike DeBord is a good hire to build off Wilson’s offensive legacy.  Working with conservative Lloyd Carr in 2006 and 2007 he coordinated the 36th ranked offense both years, up from 50th in 2005.  Good enough to even be interviewed by UM for the head job.  The next five years he was working in the NFL and in administration before being dusted off by Tennessee in 2015.  A hidden gem was brought back to college coaching by Butch Jones as DeBord took UT from 83rd in total offense in 2014 to 50th in his first year and 41st last year.

DeBord inherits a turnkey offense.  Up front Indiana has built a reputation of having incredible offensive lineman.  Not only do they develop them but they recruit this position extremely well.  Expect another wall up front for the Hoosiers.  The OL will be protecting a talented returning QB in Richard Lagow.  Lagow has a cannon for an arm but as a first year starter last year he didn’t fully know how to attack opponents.  This was seen in his so-so 57.8 completion percentage and 17 INTs.  Those 17 picks make up over half of IU’s 29 total turnovers, over 2 turnovers a game – this has got to come down.  His other numbers, 3362 yards, 7.68 YPA, 19 TDs, and just 28 sacks are all a good starting point for a first-year starter.  If he can get up over 60% and at least halve the interceptions, IU can be scary good.

Leading rusher Devine Redding and two really good wideouts in Ricky Jones and MItchell Paige have all moved on from the team but there is still some promise for the offense.  Leading receiver Nick Westbrook is back after a 54 catch, 995 yard season.  Westbrook exploded after a freshman season which saw him grab just six balls.  As Westbrook continues to improve his craft, there is a solid possibility of him leading the league in receptions, yards, and scores.  He is honestly that good.

An overlooked weapon back in the fold is kicker Griffin Oakes.  This kid has a big leg but needs to regain some accuracy.  He missed 10 field goals last year after missing just ten all career as a freshman and sophomore.  In fairness Wilson liked to gamble with his big boot as three of his misses were from 50+ (0/3) and three more were from 40+ (5/8, 40-49).  Personally, this only tells half the story because he missed 4 under 40 and several PATs.  The good news is Oakes has a lot of college miles on him, I think if anyone is poised to get out of their own way, it is an experienced kicker like him.

So recapping all the offensive weapons is nothing new since Kevin Wilson was hired but here is something new for the Allen era, defense.  Nine starters are back from the 45th ranked total defense last season including a solid linebacker in Tegray Scales.  The secondary is also a good one on paper with 4 returning starers back, highlighted by shutdown corner Richard Fant.  If the offense cuts down on their gaffes and the defense remains in the top 50, IU is a legit sleeper to win the east.  Honestly, the biggest thing in their way might be a daunting schedule, take a look.

2017 Schedule

Ohio State

• Best Case – I’ve noticed an intriguing trend for Ohio State since 2012, Urban Meyer’s first year.  First league road games have been tight…2012: 17-16 at MSU, 2013: 40-30 at Northwestern, 2014: 52-24 at Maryland (next trip was OT at Penn State), 2015: 34-27 at Indiana, 2016: 30-23 OT at Wisconsin.  All were wins but the margin of victory just 10.6 and that is with a terrible Maryland team losing by 28 skewing this.  If you take them out and just look at competent teams, the average margin of victory in those four games is just 6.25.  Hoosiers STUN the nation.  1-0
• Worst Case – On the flip side all the Urban Meyer season openers have been wins by 17 or more with last year’s 77-10 win over Bowling Green the most impressive.  0-1
• Prediction – If you look at Ohio State’s schedule, the very next week they host highly ranked Oklahoma in a marquee game so there is some trap-like qualities to the trip to Bloomington.  Could be a real nail-biter but when you have to talk yourself into the game being close, go with the smart pick and that is Ohio State, who returns gobs of talent all over the field.  L, 35-20, 0-1 (0-1)

At Virginia

• BC – Virginia’s rebuild will be a multi year effort for Bronco Mendenhall.  Last year the Hoos went just 2-10 with a loss to a FCS Richmond and awful Connecticut.  2-0
• WC – Cavs were 116th in total defense and 92nd in total offense a season ago.  On paper Indiana has big advantages at several key positions.  1-1
• P – I’ll concede that road trips to power five teams are never cakewalks but the talent gap between these teams is quite wide.  Mendenhall is a good coach and will get UVA going at some point but in year two of his rebuild this club still looks more like Kansas than they do Maryland.  W, 38-21, 1-1 (0-1)

Florida International

• BC – FIU was supposed to have a good QB and offense last year but they finished 82nd nationally in total O and fired their coach midway through the season.  Hoosiers feast.  3-0
• WC – Indiana had no troubles winning this game in the sunshine state last year as a season opener on the road.  I’m having a hard time figuring out how the Hoosiers could potentially blow this one.  2-1
• P – I still think Alex McGough is a nice quarterback and has plenty of experience as a senior but between getting banged up last year and the supporting cast not being particularly good, I don’t see FIU making too much of a dent even in C-USA, let alone on the road at a good Big Ten team.  W, 42-17, 2-1 (0-1)

Georgia Southern

• BC – GSU had a down season last year going just 5-7 and graduated their quarterback.  4-0
• WC – Option teams can be annoying but the leading returning passer from last year’s team is Matt Flynn…the punter.  3-1
• P – Southern is a good Sun Belt program but they have no experienced quarterbacks on the roster this season.  All offenses need good QBs but the option is so tricky that having zero experience feels really dangerous.  Anyone can hurl a ball 50 yards but to get the snap and in an instant know what you are doing with the ball is a different set of skills.  W, 38-10, 3-1 (0-1)

At Penn State

• BC – Picking off OSU at home in the opener is one thing but this Penn State team, mid season, on the road?  As much as I’m buying stock in the Hoosiers, I’m not sure I see them stealing this one, too.  4-1
• WC – That 45th ranked defense last year gave up 45 points to Penn State – the most points they allowed last year.  PSU returns a ton on offense.  Uh-oh.  3-2
• P – Outside his two picks, McSorely shredded this defense.  I know it was 24-21 going into the final quarter last year so the final score is worse than how the game was played but I’ve seen so many good teams struggle in Happy Valley that I’m not going to let myself be fooled by last year’s game.  L, 35-21, 3-2 (0-2)

Michigan

• BC – After some close calls the last few years, Indiana finally gets over the hump against UM.  5-1
• WC – Michigan has a lot of new faces but they also have incredible Michigan style recruiting classes to fill those shoes.  3-3
• P – Of the OSU/PSU/UM trio to start the league, this is the most winnable.  Still, Michigan has a really good QB in Wilton Speight to go a long with a deep RB talent pool.  UM escapes Indiana with another narrow victory in this series.  L, 28-24, 3-3 (0-3)

At Michigan State

• BC – Here is a simple exercise, who has the better QB?  Indiana.  Better OL?  Indiana.  Better defense?  They’re pretty equal, but IU returns more talent so it might be the Hoosiers.  6-1
• WC – MSU has a rebound season while Allen is experiencing the ups and downs of being a first year head man.  3-4
• P – Indiana returns more talent, more experience, and the much, much, better quarterback.  Huge road victory for the Hoosiers.  W, 31-28, 4-3 (1-3)

At Maryland

• BC – The nationally ranked Hoosiers pick up another road victory, this time at the hands of a UM team struggling to find a good quarterback.  7-1
• WC – This was only a six point game a year ago and as I stressed in the Maryland preview, the Terps have a really good running game coming back.  3-5
• P – For 95% of these games, I pick it purely head-to-head and don’t get into charting a team’s story line.  The other 5% follow this type of scenario.  UM is talented enough to make a bowl.  They have 5 winnable games plus Texas, Minnesota, and Indiana to get a sixth since those are their other three manageable dates.  UT and UM are on the road.  UT is the most talented of the three manageable teams and Minnesota’s running game matches up the best against Maryland.  That means Indiana gets the short end of the stick.  The Hoosiers are better than Maryland and would probably win this game five or six times out of ten – even with it being a road game – but I’m still picking the Terrapins.  Maryland’s vaunted running attack gets just enough to pull off a tight one.  L, 31-28, 4-4 (1-4)

Wisconsin

• BC – Alex Hornibrook had two fantastic games last year as a freshman.  UW fans are pinning their hopes on those two games becoming more of the norm instead of the exception.  If it doesn’t work out that way, UW will be one of many Big Ten teams without a solid option under center.  One of the few without that concern…you guessed it.  8-1
• WC – Wisconsin’s front seven has the ability to manhandle anyone, including Indiana’s good looking offensive line.  3-6
• P – Just like the Michigan game there are legit concerns about Wisconsin but the areas UW has an edge on Indiana are significant, especially in the trenches with UW’s front seven defensively looking downright scary.  L, 24-14, 4-5 (1-5)

At Illinois

• BC – Indiana enters the top 15 after demolishing Lovie Smith’s sorry Illini.  9-1
• WC – I wrote a good line in my Illinois preview that I want to plagiarize here: “They [Indiana] are really that good…on paper. That is always the problem with Indiana, what happens if they turn out to be a paper tiger?”  3-7
• In the past this would be the classic “give the game to the home team because it is Indiana” type pick but not this year and not with this team.  Allen and DeBord are too good of coaches with too good a team not to pick off the lightweights in the league.  W, 35-21, 5-5 (2-5)

Rutgers

• BC – With head-to-head wins against OSU and Michigan, Indiana has a great shot of making the title game if Penn State falters.  They also enter the top 10.  10-1
• WC – Even if everything turns out to be a bust this year for Indiana and they fail to make a bowl, I’d still take them over a Rutgers team that has a ton of rebuilding left to do.  4-7
• P – QB, skill position set, OL, defense, and home field all favor Indiana.  If you switched that and put in a team with a little better football pedigree like Minnesota, who would you take?  Exactly.  Don’t be judging IU for Lee Corso’s sins.  Actually Corso was kind of a good coach for Indiana.  W, 38-14, 6-5 (3-5)

At Purdue

• BC – Not only does Indiana win the Old Oaken Bucket for the fifth straight year but a PSU loss to Ohio State and another team, means IU is going to Indy.  Even more exciting is Purdue finishes 0-12 making the season that much more special for Hoosier fans.  Perverts, finding joy in PU’s misery.  11-1
• WC – Indiana still has a big edge on talent in this game.  The down year still ends positively with a victory and an outside shot of a bowl because academics.  5-7
• P – Way too much offense for Indiana to see Purdue being able to steal this one.  Hoosiers roll.  W, 42-24, 7-5 (4-5)

Final Notes

I want to return to that Maryland game…For almost every pick I make I simply look at the talent heading into the season.  For some teams that results in a lot of wins and for some I don’t predict much success.  I try my hardest to avoid penciling in a certain amount of wins for a team.  Every now and then I make an exception to that rule and that happened this year with Maryland.

The Terps made a bowl last year and return a lot of talent.  They had a lot of injuries a season ago that sort of derailed them after a 4-0 start.  With five winnable games on their schedule, I needed to find a sixth for them.  The most logical picks were Texas, Minnesota, or Indiana.  Indiana was the only home game of the three and seemed to be the best match-up for Maryland.

Had I followed my normal way of constructing these posts I would have had Indian win to finish 8-4 (5-4).  I don’t want to say this invalidates what I wrote for Maryland or above for IU but there is enough of a difference to point it out.  5-4 is a winning league mark.  8-4 is also a much, much better bowl game.  8 wins would also be the most for IU since 1993’s eight win club.

After (hopefully) clearing that up, I think you can tell by predicting 7-8 wins and having the best case season be an 11-1 magical year for IU, that I am genuinely high on this club.  If the team cuts down on their turnovers, especially Lagow, then watch out.  All the pieces are there.  Its just a matter of being efficient and as boring as it sounds, taking a page out of wily old Bill Snyder at Kansas State’s book: don’t beat yourself.  KSU is routinely near the fewest in penalties committed and turnovers.  They also routinely win 7+ games, something that has been a struggle for Indiana.  If the new staff, chiefly Tom Allen, can clean up some of the areas that coach Wilson seemed ambivalent towards, then there is no reason Indiana can’t find themselves in a good bowl, or ranked, or even – with a little luck – Indianapolis.