Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Northwestern

Northwestern’s offense last year was wildly inconsistent and it cost them several games.  In week one and two they averaged just 14 points per with the 9-7 loss to Illinois State 9-7 the low point.  On the other end of the scale they put up 54 on Michigan State, 45 on Purdue, 42 on Illinois, and 38 on Iowa.  All told they averaged 26 points per game and finished 67th in total offense nationally.

Despite this obvious issue and starting the year 0-2 and just 1-3 after the opening month, Northwestern figured some things out along the way and a sturdy defense got them to 6-6 (5-4) and into a bowl.  Once there they upset the heavily favored Pitt Panthers to end with a winning record and claim the second bowl victory of the Fitzgerald era and third overall for the program.

The way the offense got going later in the season and the bowl victory has people excited for the Wildcats to be a sleeper champ in the west.  With quarterback Clayton Thorson and running back Justin Jackson returning, you can see why people are high on NU.  Thorson had almost 3200 yards with a 58.6 completion percentage and a 6.66 YPA.  He tossed 22 TDs to just 9 INTs.  From his freshman to sophomore seasons he upped his completions by 130, attempts by almost 200, percentage went up eight points, YPA a yard and a half, tossed 15 more TDs all the while throwing 9 picks both years.  In a league with a lot of new starting quarterbacks, especially in the west, Thorson is a clear asset.

Jackson is an outstanding senior running back.  As a freshman he rushed for almost 1200 yards.  As a sophomore, 1400, last year he upped it again with over 1500 yards.  He had 15 rushing TDs to go along with his best season as a receiver.  The guy is also a workhorse with 855 career rushes.  A somewhat forgotten piece to NU is Jackson’s back up, John Moten IV.  Moten wasn’t used a lot until the last few weeks of the season but showed some promise in a 340 yard, 6.0 avg freshman season.  A larger workload for Moten will keep Jackson fresher.

The stupendous Austin Carr is no longer catching passes but the second and fourth leading receivers are back.  Flynn Nagel had just 4 catches and 47 yards to his name after his freshman year.  Last year he had 40 for 447 in an expanded role.  TE Garrett Dickerson also stepped up.  16 catches for 168 yards combined for his freshman and sophomore seasons turned into 34 for 318 and five scores last year.  As the rest of the WR group solidifies, Throson will rely on both Nagel and Dickerson early on.

Defensively Northwestern has a very experienced secondary.  Granted NU finished 106th in pass defense but they had 13 INTs (34th nationally).  The conventional wisdom is ball hawking ability combined with experience will result in fewer gambles, better coverage, and a sounder pass defense.

These are all very encouraging signs but Northwestern is still only a sleeper and that is because they do have some serious areas of concern.  The first is can the OL do better in pass protection?  Thorson was sacked 38 times and the 39 sacks allowed by Northwestern was 11th most nationally.

The other area of concern is the front seven, especially the defensive line.  Between several key pieces graduating and Xavier Washington being suspended indefinitely there will be several new starters.  The lack of experienced is combined with mediocre play from the few faces that are back.  NU needs some of the new players to pan out in a hurry or have the older players have that experience pay off, otherwise this defense will surely take a step back from their 59th overall standing.

2017 Schedule

Nevada

• Best Case – Wolf Pack went just 4-8 last year, including a loss to Purdue.  1-0
• Worst case – Nevada’s best player, James Butler, rushed for 1300 yards last year but graduated, so how they will move the ball is a mystery to me.  1-0
• Prediction – Huge talent advantage combined with Nevada having to do the whole western team traveling east trick makes for an easy opening victory.  W, 35-10, 1-0

At Duke

• BC – Duke is a good team to take on if you are still figuring out your defensive front because their OL play was very uneven last year.  2-0
• WC – It’s a road game at a power five school with a pretty good QB in Daniel Jones.  Nothing is guaranteed.  1-1
• P – As of now Northwestern is the more complete team.  Road trips are never easy and if they played each other 10 times, Duke would probably win 3 or 4 of them but I have a sneaky suspicion the people that are picking Duke are judging Northwestern based on their reputation as a program and not on their actual talent on this year’s roster.  W, 28-21, 2-0

Bowing Green

• BC – Falcons have had multiple coaches hired the last few years and have lost so much player talent that it finally caught up with them in a 4-8 stinker last year.  3-0
• WC – They did win their final three games in a sign of progress but I don’t think BG has fully turned the corner yet.  2-1
• P – The MAC’s best team last year beat Northwestern by a slim 22-21 final a year ago.  This NU team is probably better than last year’s outfit and Bowling Green is most certainly not as good as those Western Michigan Broncos.  W, 35-14, 3-0

At Wisconsin

• BC – In order for sleepers to come through, they have to pull off an upset or two.  In NU’s 21-7 loss last year they only rushed for 39 yards, lost the turnover margin, and went just 1/4 on fourth down but it wasn’t a total waste.  They put up 277 passing yards and were only out-gained by 17 yards.  The western race takes an early turn.  4-0
• WC – Then again, Wisconsin’s front seven looks loaded.  Maybe they hold Northwestern to even fewer rushing yards than 39.  2-2
• P – When teams are fairly evenly matched I like to look at the OL and the home team.  Both favor Wisconsin.  To be honest, calling these teams evenly matched is also a stretch.  UW is more talented and NU’s biggest chip on their western rivals is having an experienced QB.  That advantage disappears against Wisconsin.  Alex Hornibrook had an up and down freshman season but played great against Ohio State and Iowa, giving Badger nation a lot of hope for him to up his play.  L, 24-10, 3-1 (0-1)

Penn State

• BC – After an emotional win over western foe Wisconsin, Northwestern can’t quite get up for stacked Penn State.  They keep it close, just like last year’s 24-20 game to Ohio State but back-to-back upsets are very rare.  4-1
• WC – Penn State’s ceiling is the playoffs for a reason.  2-3
• P – I’m not sure any team returns as much talent as Penn State does.  They are a bona fide title contender.  Not saying it will be easy for the Nittany Lions but I think running games are pretty portable and Saquon Barkley gives PSU one helluva ground attack.  L, 28-13, 3-2 (0-2)

At Maryland

• BC – Maryland gave up the most sacks in the Big Ten last year and second nationally.  If they don’t fix that, even NU’s questionable DL will feast.  5-1
• WC – UM is the sleeper team putting together a solid season while Northwestern’s OL and DL issues are never resolved.  2-4
• P – I do like Northwestern’s team…please, keep reading…but I don’t like them in this game.  Maryland’s strength is rushing the ball and NU’s biggest weakness is the front seven.  I’ll take Maryland, barely.  L, 28-24, 3-3 (0-3)

Iowa

• BC – Hey look, another team with a new quarterback!  6-1
• WC – Iowa had a very good defense last year but you wouldn’t know it from the NU game.  Jackson shredded them and Austin Carr had a 3 TD day.  With Carr graduated, Iowa loads up the box, sacks Thorson a ton and hold Jackson to something less than his insane 171 yard day last year.  2-5
• P – Trust me NU readers, things are about to get better!  I know I keep picking you to lose games but the schedule is about to open up.  As for this game, Iowa has the best OL in the division, possibly even the league.  That doesn’t bode will for NU’s biggest weakness.  L, 35-24, 3-4 (0-4)

Michigan State

• BC – Northwestern’s 54 points last year were the most the Spartan program had allowed since 2003.  7-1
• WC – Even with an improved MSU team, I’m having a hard time seeing them pull off this road trip.  QB, RB, and WR/TE play all favor the Wildcats.  3-5
• P – It’s kind of unfair to boil such a team game down to just one position but in the battle between Lewerke and Thorson the clear advantage is so in Northwestern’s favor that you have to make the smart call.  W, 42-31, 4-4 (1-4)

At Nebraska

• BC – NU-Red’s QB situation is a mess compared to NU-Purple’s.  8-1
• WC – Husker’s get their new look 3-4 defense going faster than expected and they also resolve their massive question mark at QB resulting in a formidable team to face in Lincoln.  3-6
• P – Nebraska won this game 24-13 last year in week four before the Cats became a competent offensive team.  This time around I’ll take the team with the quarterback I trust.  Still, it is in Lincoln and that place is more often than not a nasty trip so it will be a tight one.  W, 34-31 (OT), 5-4 (2-4)

Purdue

• BC – PU is in the midst of a winless season and Northwestern takes full advantage and keeps their distance on Wisconsin thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.  9-1
• WC – Even if Purdue is vastly improved and Northwestern doesn’t live up to the hype, I don’t see the Cats blowing this winnable home game.  4-6
• P – This was a laugher last year with NU winning 45-17.  Wildcats continue laughing with another blowout.  W, 42-21, 6-4 (3-4)

Minnesota

• BC – Ding, ding, ding, yet another western title hopeful with a big question at quarterback.  If they don’t get it figured out, I don’t see how they can beat Northwestern.  10-1
• WC – On the flip side, if NU can’t figure out their DL, the massive OL of Minnesota will have a field day and run all over the Cats.  4-7
• P – This looks like a total toss up.  In my notes I have each team with their record one game better or worse with this written in the margin: Minnesota/Northwestern game a toss up.  In many ways these teams are yin and yang.  Northwestern relies heavily on one running back, Minnesota has a 1-2 punch in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.  NU’s OL is a weakness, UM’s has some experience but are probably going to be 320+ pounds at all five positions.  NU’s secondary is experienced but were 106th last year in passing, Minnesota’s is young but has a proven stud in Antoine Winfield and finished 66th in passing defense last year.  NU has a proven QB, Minnesota doesn’t.  NU has the second longest tenured coach in Fitz with established coordinators.  UM is on their third head coach, third OC and third DC since 2015.  NU’s front seven is their biggest weakness, UM has DT Seven Richardson and an experienced LB group making that a possible strength.I literally have no clue who is going to win.  My gut put Minnesota as 3rd in the west and Northwestern 4th, but my gut also says: “Go with the proven QB and the home team” which is Northwestern.  At the end of the day, I’m going to go with Northwestern.  They lost 29-12 last year but they out-gained Minnesota and Thorson had a killer day throwing the ball.  The problem was they went just 2/15 on third and couldn’t run worth a lick.  Throson also fumbled twice – one stalled a good looking drive down 6-0 and the other set up a field goal.  In many ways the Wildcats outplayed the Gophers last year but just had horrible luck on the road.  Maybe they get those bounces at home this year.  W, 28-27, 7-4 (4-4)

At Illinois

• BC – Lovie Smith’s rebuild is off the rails as Illinois is having an AWFUL season.  Wisconsin never does catch up to Northwestern and the Cats find themselves in Indianapolis.  11-1
• WC – Lovie Smith’s rebuild is going well as the Illini are going bowling.  To add insult to injury, NU drops this rivalry game and cements their first losing since 2014.  4-8
• P – As hard as the Minnesota game was to predict, this one was easy.  I really like NU’s chances in this match-up.  W, 31-21, 8-4 (5-4)

Final Notes

I certainly understand why Northwestern is a sleeper and a part of me agrees but I’m not taking a flyer on them.  Their over reliance on Jackson is scary – if he goes down this team is probably screwed.  Their issues on defense are too many to make me a believer in them getting enough league wins to get to Indy.  Also, I already regret the Minnesota pick.  Can’t I leave that game blank?!?!

Still, NU has undeniable upside.  If Thorson can be protected and Jackson is his usual brilliant self, the Wildcats could easily end up with the best offense in the division.  Having that accolade is a good way to cover up a lot of other holes and result in a good to great season.  When looking at this roster, I’m reminded of Northwestern’s cardiac cat days with Barnett and Walker winning three league titles.  The most notable of these was the 54-51 thriller over Michigan in 2000.  One of the parallels is phenomenal running back play.  Darnell Autry in that 1995 season was a Heisman finalist for a reason.  This offense, in particular Jackson being his own version of Autry, make Northwestern such an intriguing team heading into 2017.  It might not always be the easiest way to win a game, let alone a title, but those cardiac cats always found a way.  With NU’s experience, this version might be a cardiac season where they continually find a way…enough to get to Indianapolis is even in play.