Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Maryland

Maryland is a sleeping giant in college football….or at least that is a common refrain when discussing Terrapin football.  There is some truth in it: good recruiting in the eastern seaboard, the under armor connection (a la Nike and Oregon), joining the Big Ten with their greater revenue and television exposure, and the lure of playing in a large metropolitan area (areaish, UM is close to DC but not exactly downtown, either).  So what was holding Maryland up?  That was another common refrain: coaching.

First was Ralph Friedgen (2001-2010) who led the team to six seasons of eight or more wins, but his three best years were his first three seasons.  Despite going 9-4 (5-3) in his final season, the up and down nature of UM football and diminished ticket sales were enough of a reason for the school to cut ties with Friedgen.  As questionable as that decision remains, the hire to replace Friedgen has no debate: it was an unmitigated disaster.

Randy Edsall did good work at building Connecticut into a competent football team but at Maryland he went 6-18 (3-13) in his first two years.  Unfortunately they made a bowl in his third season and with the team joining the Big Ten in 2014, it made some sense to keep him around so they aren’t changing leagues AND coaches in the same off-season.  UM went 7-6 in 2014 but in 2015 the team started 2-4 (0-2) and he was fired.  After such a disastrous start to his time in College Park most football observers felt it was a matter of when, not if, Maryland would fire Edsall.

If there was one bright spot about Edsall it was his recruiting.  Maryland brought in talented pieces, just Edsall and his staff failed at finding ways to deploy those players.  A revolving door at quarterback also tanked any continuity.  With the reasons why Maryland is a “sleeping giant” and Edsall’s better-than-you-think recruiting, the Terps were a fairly attractive coaching destination.  As a result they got D.J. Durkin, a popular name as an up and comer.

Durkin isn’t even 40 yet and he had highly successful stints as DC at Florida and Michigan, leading the UM’s defense to insane heights in 2015.  By all accounts Maryland has their best coach in a long, long time.  The question now is can all the stars align for this program that has had a ton of near-misses for greatness.

Durkin’s debut season was a pleasant surprise, starting 4-0 and then pushing that mark to 5-2.  Injuries, combined with an extremely difficult four game stretch (at Indiana, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Nebraska), dropped the team below .500 but knocking off Rutgers in the finale got the team to 6-6 and a bowl.  A disappointing defensive performance against Boston College wrapped up the season with the 6-7 final but there were a lot of bright spots and many are back for 2017.

Let’s start with that running game.  Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III might be the best RB tandem in the league that no one has ever heard of.  Johnson rushed for 1004 yards on 110 carries, an outstanding 9.1 average.  Harrison had an injury shortened season but still had 633 yards on 88 carries, an impressive 7.2 a pop.  Helping these backs out is a good run-lane producing OL that returns three starters.

Maryland’s total defense may have only finished 80th in the nation but this will improve.  Not only is Durkin a proven defensive coach but 10 key contributors are back including 8 of the top 11 tacklers.  This defense will be anchored by the formidable LB duo of Jermaine Carter and Shane Cockerille.

These are all encouraging signs but there are two key concerns.  The lesser of these two is the OL.  Undeniably strong in the running game, can they provide good enough pass protection?  Last year they gave up the second most sacks nationally, 49 in total.  If they can cut down on that number and maintain the ability to create running lanes, Maryland should be able to move the ball well.  Then there is the bigger concern: quarterback.  Familiar names Perry Hills and Caleb Rowe have graduated leaving four potential starters.

First up is Max Bortenschlager.  He was given a crack against Nebraska last year and managed 191 yards with a score and zero INTs but his completion percentage was bad and the bulk of his yards came on a 92 yard play.  Next is Tyrrell Pigrome who appeared in 11 games but had 48 of his 71 pass attempts against Minnesota and Ohio State.  He too struggled with accuracy but did show some potential with his feet as a duel threat, rushing for 71 yards against the Gophers.

These two sophomores are joined with a big name recruit: Kasim Hill.  The local DC kid is a 4-star pocket passer.  Ranked as the 13th best QB and 297th overall prospect, Hill was offered scholarships by 7 other Big Ten teams, 4 ACC clubs, 2 SEC teams, Utah, Temple, and UConn.  He was a huge get for Maryland.

Lastly is transfer Caleb Henderson.  Henderson redshirted at North Carolina in 2014.  In 2015 he saw limited action before transferring.  He was ranted as the 13th best QB as well and a member of the ESPN top 300.  Hill and Henderson are both highly acclaimed from their prep careers but have essentially zilch in college experience.  No matter who wins the starting gig, they are a complete X factor here in August.

2017 Schedule

At Texas

• Best Case – Texas has a much better offense but finished 93rd defensively and were not immune to awful performances, most notably losing to Kansas last year.  Mammoth sized upset.  1-0
• Worst Case – Talk about a sleeping giant…look at Texas!  If they have any pulse defensively, watch out.  0-1
• Prediction – I think Maryland has five very winnable games on their schedule and will make another bowl going in the 6-6 to 7-5 range by upsetting some combo of Texas, Minnesota, and Indiana.  Texas seems the least likely because they are the most talented of these three team, are a road game, and will be the debut game for one of the inexperienced quarterbacks.  L, 35-24, 0-1

Towson

• BC – The rebuilding Tigers went just 4-8 (3-5) last year in the deep FCS Colonial.  2-0
• WC – Outside injuries, I don’t see Towson being too much of a hurdle.  1-1
• P – In their one game against a FBS team last year, Towson gave up over 200 rushing yards to South Florida.  Maryland’s strength is clearly rushing the ball.  Uh-oh.  W, 49-13, 1-1

UCF

• BC – UCF went to a bowl last year but had a hard time beating anyone better than them and their offense was anemic at times.  3-0
• WC – Terps only won this game by six last year in double overtime.  McKenzie Milton posted pretty decent numbers as a freshman starter in ten games last year (including the bowl).  Knights have a shot in this one.  1-2
• P – Milton put up 260 yards on 21/36 for 2 scores and a pick last year in this one.  He has a lot of promise as a sophomore starter to build UCF back up but this team had the 69th ranked rush defense a year ago and UM put up 246 yards on 50 carries in last year’s game.  Terps ride the running attack to another tight victory.  W, 31-28, 2-1

At Minnesota

• BC – Gophers are a mirror vision of Maryland.  Solid running game and some nice defensive pieces but questions galore at quarterback.  4-0
• WC – Gophers had a field day in this one last year, winning 31-10 and putting up 229 rushing yards.  1-3
• P – Like I said in the Texas prediction, Maryland will pick off either Texas, Minnesota, Indiana, or possibly a combo of those teams.  UT is the least likely and Minnesota is in the middle.  The deciding factors for me is the game is in Minneapolis and Minnesota has way more back on defense than Maryland, chiefly Antoine Winfield and Steven Richardson.  L, 28-14, 2-2 (0-1)

At Ohio State

• BC – Maryland was demolished last year losing 62-3.  If you have read the Nebraska preview, that was the score in that game, too.  No, I didn’t make a mistake, Ohio State had back-to-back wins with the exact same score.  Anyway, Maryland keeps it closer showing some progress.  4-1
• WC – A repeat of last year’s nightmare.  At least it is a road game this time around!  1-4
• P – Maryland has the ability to make it interesting for a half, maybe even three quarters, but Ohio State is clearly more talented and has the ability to put a stranglehold on the game early and demoralize their opponents, resulting sometimes in massive blowouts.  L, 49-10, 2-3 (0-2)

Northwestern

• BC – After a tough road trip, Maryland gets back to their winning ways with a home date against Northwestern.  5-1
• WC – Of course NU is a bit of a sleeper out west thanks to a veteran QB and running back in the combo of Clayton Thorson and Justin Jackson.  1-5
• P – There’s a lot to like about Maryland’s chances in this match-up.  Northwestern’s biggest concern heading into this season is if the front seven, especially wondering if the defensive line is good enough to get NU over the top.  W, 28-24, 3-3 (1-2)

At Wisconsin

• BC – Another moral victory in a road game against a vastly superior Big Ten title contender.  5-2
• WC – None of the quarterbacks are coming through and UM’s rebuild hits a major snag in year two of Durkin.  1-6
• P – One of my worries about Maryland is if they can protect the quarterback.  This rears its head against Wisconsin who has an extremely experienced front seven that also has a knack at getting to the quarterback with 34 sacks last year, tied for 28th in the nation.  L, 31-14, 3-4 (1-3)

Indiana

• BC – Last year’s 42-36 thriller goes Maryland’s way this time around as the Terps punch their ticket to another bowl.  6-2
• WC – Doubt starts to creep in for Maryland fans for the first time in the Durkin era as they are mired in a lost season and the Hoosiers hammer the Terps in College Park.  1-7
• P – Sorry Hoosiers, Maryland is talented enough to be a bowl team and I have to have them pull off an upset somewhere.  This is the most likely game because it is a home game for UM and despite a lot of returning defensive talent, most of that is in the linebacking and secondary ranks for IU.  Maryland finds just enough rushing yards against the Indiana defensive line to steal the game.  W, 31-28, 4-4 (2-3)

Rutgers (Game Played in Yankee Stadium, NYC)

• BC – Rutgers is having another awful season and Maryland takes full advantage to improve on last year’s win total.  7-2
• WC – Pass protection issues and shaky QB play combined with a charged up Rutgers team that relishes playing in New York City results in another loss for the Terps.  1-8
• P – Yet again the run game puts the club on its back as Maryland grounds and pounds the Scarlet Knights.  W, 31-14, 5-4 (3-3)

Michigan

• BC – Michigan has a ton of holes on defense to fix and the OL is a bit of an unknown.  After moral victories against Ohio State and Wisconsin, Maryland finally gets a real victory in a stunning upset of Michigan.  8-2
• WC – Last year was a 59-3 stinker.  Michigan answers their off-season questions while Maryland doesn’t.  1-9
• P – Yes there are some issues for Michigan but they have a good stable of running backs and returning talent in Wilton Speight flinging the ball around.  L, 35-21, 5-5 (3-4)

At Michigan State

• BC – Maryland’s offense was firing in all phases last year racking up 447 yards against the Spartans.  9-2
• WC – MSU is having the dream season after last year’s struggles and racks of wins against the middle pack league teams, including Maryland.  1-10
• P – What a toss up.  I have zero clue who is going to win and probably won’t the day of this game, either.  In August though, I’ll take the Terps.  A little bit more on defense is back, the OL is a tad better than MSU’s, and as good as LJ Scott is, Maryland’s running back duo is undeniably better.  W, 35-31, 6-5 (4-4)

Penn State

• BC – Maryland comes up just short on senior day but nine wins and a New Year’s Day bowl is nothing to scoff at.  9-3
• WC – The loss drops Durkin to 7-18 (3-15).  The shine is officially off the coach and he enters 2018 with the hottest seat in the nation.  1-11
• P – Penn State returns a crap load on both sides of the ball.  The question about them isn’t if they will struggle with Maryland, it is if they can get back to Indy and/or the playoffs.  L, 38-7, 6-6 (4-5)

Final Notes

Much like MSU, Maryland is a team with tremendous upside and potential, highlighted by the 9 win best case season but also a team with some real concerns, reflected in the 1 win worst case season.  At the end of the day they will probably split the difference and win somewhere around five to seven games.  I do think they have those five winnable games (Towson, UCF, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Michigan State) that makes a bowl highly likely but what does a second straight bowl mean for the rebuild or the “sleeping giant” notion?  A lot, I think.

Any bowl means extra practices, an extra televised game, an extra piece to throw to recruits, an extra piece to throw out to ticket-holders, and a chance to win a recruiting battle.  Imagine if Maryland and Virginia Tech squared off in a bowl?  It might not be a large factor for a prized Virginia recruit but it doesn’t hurt.  So yeah, making a second straight bowl would be a great sign for this program’s development.