Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Nebraska

In 2015 Mike Riley debuted with a 6-7 (3-5) mark that left a lot of Husker nation concerned about the direction of the program.  Last year Nebraska opened up 7-0 (4-0), much to the relief of the legion of fans that head to Lincoln six times a year.  On Halloween weekend, NU lost a nail-biter up in Madison to Wisconsin in overtime.  The next week they were hammered by Ohio State in a 62-3 loss.  With the division race looking over, Nebraska rallied to beat two bowl-bound teams at home: Minnesota and Maryland.  Sitting at 9-2, Nebraska traveled to a very up-and-down Iowa team.  A win, combined with a Wisconsin loss, would send NU to Indianapolis.  Instead the Huskers completely imploded.  They gave up over 400 yards, 264 on the ground, and were embarrassed 40-10 on national TV in their traditional Black Friday game.  A final indignity was felt in a 14 point loss to mid-level SEC team Tennessee to wrap up the 9-4 (6-3) season.

The hot start provided relief but the 2-4 finish with the two blowouts to Iowa and Ohio State, as well as coming up short against Wisconsin, again, returned a lot of the worries from the Bo Pelini era: good enough for 8 or 9 wins but not good enough for a championship.  What’s even more of a concern for this season though is all the departing talent.  As much as he divided the fan base, Tommy Armstrong Jr was an experienced quarterback but he’s gone.  Talented back Terrell Newby and sure-handed WR Jordan Westerkamp are also gone.

The best aspect of this offense will be Stanley Morgan and De’Mornay Pierson-El.  Wideout Morgan shined last year as a sophomore behind Westerkamp.  Pierson-El has a little bit of Percy Harvin to him.  Last year he had 20 catches and 14 rushes to go along with 24 punt returns.  While his return game hasn’t been as dynamic as 2014 when he housed 3 punts, he still has speed to spare.  Incorporating him more and more into the passing and rushing games will help…and that is about it.  I’m not kidding.

With Armstrong Jr’s graduation and his back up, Ryker Fyfe, also graduating NU is woefully thin at quarterback.  A third string Zack Darlington in 2016 is back after attempting six passes last year…he is now listed as a wide receiver.  The current QBs are three freshman, sophomore Andrew Bunch (zero pass attempts), and transfer Tanner Lee.

Lee started his career at Tulane but transferred when the Green Wave hired Willy Fritz, who runs the option.  Unfortunately for Husker fans, he wasn’t that good at Tulane.  In 2014 he threw for 1962 yards on a 55.1%, 5.84 YPA, 12 TDs, and 14 INTs.  In 2015 he went 1639 / 55.1 / 5.94 / 11 / 7.  So a guy with 21 picks in the American and accuracy issues is your starting quarterback (probably).

The issues don’t end there.  The fired Connecticut coach, Bob Diaco, comes in as the new DC.  The secondary is good and he has a solid track record coaching defense but he is employing the 3-4 look.  This isn’t as easy as taking your best pass rushing lineman and standing him up.  You need a nose tackle and a deep linebacking corps.  Sometimes this transition proves to be very bumpy in the first year.

2017 Schedule

Arkansas State

• Best Case – Red Wolves own the Sun Belt.  They have gone 40-7 with 5 championships (outright and co) in the league since 2011.  They haven’t done quite as well in non-conference games.  For example they went 0-4 last year with losses to the likes of Toledo, Utah State, and FCS Central Arkansas.  1-0
• Worst Case – Justice Hansen is a nice quarterback and his TE Blake Mack is a load – he even led the team in receiving yards last season.  If the Tanner Lee experience is a disaster, there’s a slight chance ASU gets one of their biggest non-con wins ever.  0-1
• Prediction – I loved how this ASU team started 0-4 and finished 8-5 with a bowl win.  It was so fun watching them pull off win after win in the wide open Sun Belt.  I will probably be rooting for them with my heart in this game but I’m picking with my head.  W, 42-21, 1-0

At Oregon

• BC – Oregon’s defense had about three sacks, forced five punts, and had one takeaway all year…or at least that’s what it felt like.  2-0
• WC – Anyone have any idea what so ever on how this Oregon team will perform this year?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Bueller?  Bueller?  0-2
• P – Despite the defense [probably] being a disaster again, new head coach Willie Taggert does have some weapons.  QB Justin Herbert played really well as a freshman last year.  Senior RB Royce Freeman only ran for 945 yards (I say only because in 2014 he had 1365 yards and 2015 he had 1836) but after a horrible stretch of games in the middle of the season, he finished strong with with 346 of his 945 yards coming in those last three games.  Tony Brooks-James, one part of the 1-2 punch with Freeman, is also back after a bonkers 7.6 yards per carry on just 101 rushes last year.  Long story short, changing defensive schemes AND taking on this Oregon club AND playing them up in Eugene seems like a really bad recipe.  L, 49-24, 1-1

Northern Illinois

• BC – NIU went 0-4 in their non conference last year, including dropping a game to FCS Western Illinois.  3-0
• WC – I’m not sure any team had more injuries last year than the Huskies but they are always sniffing around the MAC so despite a 1-6 start, they finished 4-1 and went 5-3 in league.  Sure they’ll be an annoying out for every MAC club this season but they aren’t up for winning in Lincoln.  1-2
• P – It gutted me to see Drew Hare go down to injury last year.  He is truly one of the most electric players in MAC history.  Despite his career ending prematurely he ended with 4862 yards, 37 TDs and 6 INTs.  His absolutely fantastic 2014 season had 2322 passing yards, 18 TDs, 2 INTs to go along with 900 rushing yards and 8 scores.  Kid was a joy to watch.  Due to so many injuries he was one of four quarterbacks to throw at least 35 passes in 2016 for NIU.  I expect Northern to rebuild quickly but Nebraska will still win this go-around.  W, 35-20, 2-1

Rutgers

• BC – Tanner Lee turns out to be a gem and the Husker offense is firing on all cylinders.  4-0
• WC – This is the first road trip for a young Rutgers team.  Nebraska takes full advantage.  2-2
• P – If you couldn’t tell I have a lot of concerns about this year’s NU team and if the game was in New Jersey, I might be willing to do some digging and try and sell you (and myself to be honest) on an upset but not with the game in the Husker’s back yard.  W, 35-14, 3-1 (1-0)

At Illinois

• BC – Not only is the O much better than expected but the defense has made the switch in scheme quite smoothly.  5-0
• WC – Illinois’s hopes rest with a JUCO transfer quarterback.  Despite a strange trip back to the power five, he was a highly rated recruit not that long ago.  There’s a chance he puts the Illini on his back and gets them to a bowl while Lee struggles.  2-3
• P – Both teams clearly in transition but Nebraska does still have more talent on the field in this one.  They escape Champagne with a tight victory.  W, 28-24, 4-1 (2-0)

Wisconsin

• BC – Even with the hot start, NU isn’t quite up to knocking of the stacked Badgers yet.  5-1
• WC – Another classic meltdown by Nebraska against a highly ranked team.  Boo birds highly noticeable on TV.  2-4
• P – With the big OL the Badgers are bringing back and some deep rushing talent, I don’t think this team will mind probing this questionable Nebraska front.  L, 31-14, 4-2 (2-1)

Ohio State

• BC – This was a 62-3 laugher in Lincoln last year.  This year’s OSU team is better and Nebraska’s is worse.  At least the game isn’t in the Shoe.  At best a moral victory.  5-2
• WC – Worse than 62-3?  2-5
• P – There isn’t one aspect that Nebraska has an advantage over Ohio State.  That doesn’t bode well.  L, 45-10, 4-3 (2-2)

At Purdue

• BC – Against a questionable defense, Lee and his receiving duo gets back on track.  6-2
• WC – Purdue hung around in this one, losing 27-14.  With the Huskers not as good as last year, on paper at least, maybe the Boilermakers can turn the tables.  2-6
• P – I’m not sold on QB David Blough doing enough offensively to get the Train going, even this late in the season to pick off any upsets.  W, 31-21, 5-3 (3-2)

Northwestern

• BC – NU-Purple has some intriguing pieces but some questions along their front seven, especially the D-line, as well as if the OL can keep Thorson clean.  Perhaps Diaco draws up some great packages to get to the NU-Purple quarterback and NU-Red continues to add to their win total.  7-2
• WC – On the other hand Northwestern is a sleeper because of Clayton Thorson, RB Justin Jackson, and a very experienced secondary.  That’s a good foundation to have.  2-7
• P – Nebraska caught Northwestern early last year and won in Evanston.  As we know Northwestern improved each and every week and was a pretty good team by the end of the year.  In a match-up of quarterbacks, I’ll take the road team escaping with a win.  L, 34-31 (OT), 5-4 (3-3)

At Minnesota

• BC – This looks like a pretty tough road trip.  Even with their own questions at quarterback, Gophers have the makings of an outstanding rushing attack on paper to go along with a very nice looking defense.  7-3
• WC – Uh-oh, the administration gives a tepid vote of confidence claiming that, “The University of Nebraska-Lincoln evaluates all coaches at the end of the athletic season.”  2-8
• P – As an Iowa City native who still roots for his hometown club AND an alum of the University of Wisconsin it really pains me to say this but…this Gopher club scares the crap out of me.  L, 28-17, 5-5 (3-4)

At Penn State

• BC – Huskers get a gut-wrenching moral victory as they hold their own for 45 minutes before the Lions can finally shake them.  7-4
• WC – Just like the 62-3 meltdown at Ohio State last year, a far superior opponent in Penn State absolutely obliterates NU.  2-9
• P – McSorley, Barkley, Marcus “I’m not a running back” Allen, and a ton of other kids bound for the NFL are on this stacked Lion club.  L, 49-10, 5-6 (3-5)

Iowa

• BC – Nebraska successfully navigates an extremely difficult schedule to get to eight wins, just one fewer than last year with a much younger team.  Future looks bright.  8-4
• WC – Another blowout drops Mike Riley to 17-21 (9-17) in Lincoln.  Talk radio is raging back and forth on if he should get a fourth crack at turning around Nebraska  2-10
• P – Iowa has one of the best OL and LB groups in the league to go along with some skill position talent.  If they find a quarterback, watch out.  They could push Wisconsin for the division.  L, 28-24, 5-7 (3-6)

Final Notes

Nebraska has a lot of questions entering a season with a nightmare schedule.  Penn State and Ohio State are cross-overs.  Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota are all better on paper within the division.  To add insult to injury, that road trip out to Autzen Stadium in the non-con.  Making a bowl, any bowl, would be a job well done with as many holes as Nebraska appears to have combined with this slate of games.

Let’s imagine that NU has their second 5-7 season in Riley’s tenure (they won a bowl that year to go 6-7) so he is sitting at roughly 20-18 (12-14), do they bring him back?  As much as this may upset the anti-Riley camp to hear, I think you have to.  They have no quarterback and are changing defenses.  To change horses midstream will undoubtedly to more harm than good.  Let’s say they blow the staff up after three years, who does Nebraska hire?  They will have run off Bo Pelini, who always won at least nine games, then toss out Riley after three years.  Back when they did the same thing with Frank Solich and Bill Callahan, they had a bit of a hard time finding a coach, eventually getting Pelini.  Returning to the hypothetical, they have a hard time finding a new coach and in 2018 the damage results in a two or three win team.  What will they have accomplished?

For better or worse, I really think Nebraska needs to give Riley the time to find his quarterback AND establish this new defense with Bob Diaco.  If 2018 and/or 2019 are also sub .500 seasons, then cut and run but panicking after a season with this brutal schedule seems foolish.