Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Michigan State

How bad was Michigan State’s 3-9 (1-8) season?  Well it is not hyperbolic to say it was historic.  Their last three win season was 1991 and their last nine loss season was 1982.  When an accomplishment (or a historic low) is over thirty years old, that qualifies as historic to me.

So what went wrong?  Well the schedule was tough with Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State as the usual divisional foes.  Cross-over games with Wisconsin and Northwestern weren’t cupcakes either.  Bad luck also factored in.  They caught Maryland early before injuries weakened them.  They lost at Illinois by just four points.  They lost at Indiana by just three in overtime.  They had a solid non conference foe in BYU….after the league slate had started (that seldom goes well).  Having a down season talent wise combined with this schedule made for falling off the table like MSU did more possible but not a guarantee.

The defense also didn’t help.  Hear me out.  31st in total defense doesn’t sound bad but it was another decline in the post Narduzzi to Pittsburgh experience.  Sparty was tied for 93 nationally with just eight picks.  They were 108th nationally with a woeful five fumble recoveries.  Lastly, and most alarmingly, MSU was 124th in the whole country with just 11 sacks.  The next closest Big Ten team was Purdue, tied at 92nd nationally with 21 sacks.  Purdue’s sorry defense had TEN MORE SACKS!?!  Put it another way, MSU defense was fine at holding their opponents total yards from spinning out of control but they didn’t make any big plays.

Then we get to the offense.  It finished just 89th nationally.  The issues were many.  Up front the OL was pretty meh.  The bad news for this year is three starters are gone from that group.  Next, the Dantonio era has enjoyed some phenomenal quarterback play to cover up some holes – think Connor Cook – but that never happened last year.  Senior Tyler O’Connor was okay but unspectacular in his only season as a starter.  Damion Terry struggled mightily in his appearances, a big disappointment as he was a junior last year and had plenty of time to learn the ropes.  Finally freshman Brian Lewerke had a fine, but not special 54.4 completion percentage, an equally fine but not special 6.68 YPA, and just 2 TDs to 1 INT when playing in four games, starting two.  Lewerke has been announced as the starter but from what he showed last year it begs the question: is he a Big Ten caliber quarterback?  If not, MSU will be in for another long season.

Finally there is the other aspect of things that went wrong last year and that is the off the field nightmare.  There are plenty of professional journalists covering the story so it is not my place on a blog to try and go into the ins and outs, additionally it is an ongoing story and with my staff of….me….I can’t do the story justice if I tried.  What I will say is, for anyone reading this preview who hasn’t heard, several players are facing charges for sexual assault and a staff member, Curtis Blackwell, was dismissed for a role that is still cloudy.  In a report that came out, Dantonio was shown to be compliant with school policy and not attempting to hinder any investigation.  That’s a great start and the report was somewhat of a vote of confidence but again, this is still an ongoing and developing story and investigation.  Seldom do things move as quickly as they did at Ole Miss when the phone records doomed Freeze at such a rapid rate.  Dantonio being completely condemned or exonerated will take time.

So that were a lot of negatives facing MSU heading into 2017 but they still have some positives.  LJ Scott leads a reliable running back group.  They will be called on big time with the QB issues and the top four receivers all moving on from the program.  Defensively, the secondary is patchwork, but maybe a good front seven can give this group time to mature.  All four DL starters are back and Chris Frey is a solid LB.  If they can get more pressure (and for the love of god more sacks) this defense could have more bite.

2017 Schedule

Bowling Green

• Best Case – At one point the Falcons were 1-8 (0-5) with just a one point win over FCS North Dakota keeping them from a winless season.  Then they won their last three games.  An encouraging sign but this team has lost a ton of talent the last few years, not to mention multiple coaches getting power league gigs.  They’re still rebuilding.  1-0
• Worst Case – The Bowling Green rebuild isn’t ready for a big date like taking on a Big Ten club.  1-0
• Prediction – The size and speed of LJ Scott is the difference maker against this Falcon club.  W, 31-10, 1-0

Western Michigan

• BC – TONS of talent from last year’s special Broncos team is gone.  Coach P.J. Fleck, awesome QB Zach Terrell, OUTSTANDING WR Corey Davis (and the second and third receivers), and even reliable kicker Butch Hampton graduated.  2-0
• WC – The two headed monster of Jarvion Franklin (1353 yards, 5.5 avg, 12 TDs) and Jamauri Bogan (923, 5.2, 8) are back at running back.  1-1
• P – I like Franklin and Bogan and think Western Michigan will still be competitive in the MAC but re-read the best case.  So much talent leaving is hard to overlook.  W, 31-14, 2-0

Notre Dame

• BC – Notre Dame had long off season as well but for different reasons, most notably DeShone Kizer forgoing his final two years of eligibility and Malik Zaire transferring leaving them with no proven quarterback.  3-0
• WC – OL can’t hold up and the passing game stinks.  Long season alert.  1-2
• P – The prognosis for Notre Dame isn’t encouraging.  Outside RB Josh Adams and WR Equanimeous St. Brown, there are a lot of concerns about this offense.  W, 35-21, 3-0

Iowa

• BC – Lewerke grows into the starter MSU needs him to be.  Meanwhile Iowa’s new starting QB is struggling mightily in his new role.  4-0
• WC – Iowa’s OL is among the best in the league.  MSU’s DL struggled to get to the quarter back a year ago.  1-3
• P – The better team on paper is Iowa.  It could be a defensive grind but the Hawkeyes find just enough points.  L, 17-10, 3-1 (0-1)

At Michigan

• BC – This was a battle last year with UM pulling away in a 32-23 win.  Michigan returns very few pieces.  The slightly more experienced Spartans pull out a big win.  5-0
• WC – Michigan has one edge in their favor, quarterback.  1-4
• P – I know Harbaugh is playing coy about his starter but I think it will be Wilton Speight.  In his first year as a starter he guided the team to a 9-3 record (they won the Indiana game with him sidelined in an injury against Iowa).  His stats were pretty good, 2500 yards, 61.6%, 7.67 YPA, 18 TDs, 7 sacks.  That’s a pretty solid baseline to start with.  L, 28-24, 3-2 (0-2)

At Minnesota

• BC – Hey, look, another Big Ten team with questions surrounding their quarterback!  Whoever figures it all out first will get to rack up some wins.  6-0
• WC – Gophers have a massive OL and a bruising running game with Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks.  Even with all four starting defensive lineman back for Michigan State, I think Minnesota has an edge here.  1-5
• P – I sort of stole my thunder in the worst case but adding to that advantage in the trenches, this is also a league road game.  Those wins are hard to come by for middle of the pack teams like MSU.  L, 28-21, 3-3 (0-3)

Indiana

• BC – I’ve been picking Indiana in a lot of teams’ best case scenarios but stopping here.  This was an overtime affair last year and MSU seems to always have Indiana’s number.  IU’s win last year was their first since 2006 and just their third since 2000.  7-0
• WC – Better QB?  Indiana.  Better OL?  Indiana.  Better defense?  Quite possibly Indiana.  1-6
• P – Strange times we live in but Indiana has a foundation established by Kevin Wilson that Tom Allen seems poised to build on.  L, 31-28, 3-4 (0-4)

At Northwestern

• BC – Tough to identify a low point for MSU last year but in the NU game they gave up 54 points, their most all year, as the Wildcats put up nearly 500 yards of offense.  Tons of returning offensive talent is back for NU.  The hot start finally cools on this tricky road trip.  7-1
• WC – A repeat of last year’s debacle.  Those 54 points by the way are the most given up by Michigan State since Wisconsin put up 56 on them…in 2003.  1-7
• P – Michigan State is one of the toughest teams to preview because on paper, they look worse than Northwestern so the smart money thing is to pick NU.  You can tell from my scores though that the Spartans are hanging in every game.  We simply don’t know how Lewerke will do.  L, 42-31, 3-5 (0-5)

Penn State

• BC – I can’t tell if Penn State returns more offensively or defensively.  They are the biggest threat to Ohio State by far.  Pretty much everyone else looks like easy pickings for these Lions.  7-2
• WC – At what point does MSU use the tumultuous off season combined with back-to-back lost seasons to put Dantonio on the hot seat?  His run up until last season was outstanding but this has become a “what have you done for me lately” career.  1-8
• P – Last year was a 45-12 drubbing by Penn State.  To see the growth of this team with still many, many questions, I would like to see MSU keep it within 10.  Not sure they can do that, but that would be a good starting point in my opinion.  L, 45-20, 3-6 (0-6)

At Ohio State

• BC – For some reason MSU seemingly always give the Buckeyes fits.  Last year was no different in a 17-16 final.  MSU totally upsets the league race with a massive victory inside the Shoe.  8-2
• WC – MSU is on their fourth qb of the season as they try to find somebody, ANYBODY, who can move the ball down the field.  1-9
• P – LJ Scott’s game last year against the Buckeyes was absolutely incredible.  The defense played their guts out.  This was the problem: 8/21, 127 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs as a team.  I just don’t see MSU having the quarterback play to gut out a victory in this one.  They’ll get a Herculean effort from several guys to keep it close again in what has become a fun under-card rivalry to both MSU-Michigan and obviously Michigan-OSU but they fall short.  L, 28-21, 3-7 (0-7)

Maryland

• BC – Despite the losses to UM and PSU making a Big Ten title game trip nearly impossible, MSU continues to play hard and racks up another victory in a fantastic bounce back season.  9-2
• WC – Another low point for MSU last year was their trip to Maryland.  The offense played one of their best games, putting up 426 yards but had 2 turnovers and was awful on third down.  Meanwhile Maryland could seemingly do no wrong with 447 yards in what turned out to be a lopsided 28-17 final.  1-10
• P – Total coin flip.  I couldn’t pick this game right 6 out of 10 times the day before it happens, let alone here in the summer.  I’m picking Maryland because they have a tad more on defense, a smidge better OL and Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III are a solid RB tandem.  Not too many people have heard of them outside the state of Maryland but these guys are scary good.  L, 35-31, 3-8 (0-8)

At Rutgers

• BC – Rutgers is mired in another winless Big Ten slate and MSU takes full advantage for a soft finale, keeping the pressure on Michigan/Penn State/Ohio State for a surprise trip to Indianapolis.  10-2
• WC – Literally nothing goes right.  More allegations emerge during the season, the offense flat-lines, and the defense takes yet another step back.  The season is a total failure.  Meanwhile, Rutgers enters this game needing a win to get to 6-6.  With more to play for and at home on senior day, the Knights pull it out.  1-11
• P – To plagiarize my own BC/WC/P for Rutgers, “I think their defense can let them steal some wins.”  This is the most readily available example of this happening.  W, 21-13, 4-8 (1-8)

Final Notes

I love doing these previews.  For teams like OSU, Penn State, and Wisconsin you see if there are any landmines along the way to prevent them from making the title game.  For clubs like Indiana you get to see if they can have their breakthrough season.  The one thing about these previews that is hard is a team like MSU.  Their Best Case was 10-2 and Worst Case was 1-11.  I ended up going in the middle with 4 wins but had six losses by a touchdown or less.

I think Mark Dantonio is a fantastic coach and if the water around him doesn’t get any hotter for the multiple players dismissed and he has time to work MSU out of this on-field funk, I know they will return to 9-10-11 win seasons.  The question is not if but when.  I don’t think it is this year because of such a shaky quarterback picture but this is going to be an exciting season to watch because, to quote Dumb and Dumber, I’m telling you there’s a chance MSU turns it around in a hurry.