Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Illinois

Well that didn’t go according to plan.  With a big name hire in Lovie Smith, a defensive mind, well regarded Hardy Nickerson joining as DC, and Nickerson’s son grad-transferring in, the Illini defense was poised to be a foundation for an improved club.  Bowl expectations were even in play.  Heck, in my BC/WC/P for 2016 I had Illinois going 6-6 (4-5).

Unfortunately the Illini defense finished just 61st in total defense.  Only Maryland, Purdue, and Rutgers finished worst in the league.  Still, 61st isn’t horrible but it is when your offense finishes 125th in total O and dead last in the league, you’re going to have issues.  The notion of going 6-6 required Illinois to finish in the upper half of the league in defense and top 30-40 nationally.

With such an anemic offense, the losses started mounting.  Against Western Michigan and Nebraska, they scored just a combined 26 points.  Michigan held them to 8, Minnesota 17, Wisconsin 3, and Iowa shut them out.  All losses.  Then came the games where the defense wasn’t good enough, either.  North Carolina and Northwestern each put up 40.  Even Purdue managed to win, thanks to putting up 34 points in an overtime tango.  When the dust settled, Illinois went just 3-9 (2-7) and more questions are raised about the college experiment with Lovie than answers.

If Illinois shows any growth on offense it will be in large part thanks to a nice skill position set.  Kendrick Foster is an intriguing running back who had a 5.7 yards per carry average on just 126 carries (aka, run the damn ball more!).  The WR group should also be a strength as it looks quite deep.  Malik Turner (712 yards, 14.8 avg, 6 TDs) is joined by a healthy Desmond Cain and Mike Dudek.  Cain missed nearly all of last year with a knee, catching just 5 passes total.  In 2015 though he had 492 yards.  Dudek missed the last two season with knee injuries.  In 2014 he nabbed 76 passes for over a thousand yards.

If relying on Cain or Dudek to stay healthy makes you nervous, I don’t blame you, but there are some other options.  Zach Grant and Sam Mays both return.  While not as explosive as either Cain/Dudek (when healthy), these two did combine for 39 catches, over 400 yards, and 2 scores last year.  Neither set the world on fire last year but they both add a lot of depth to this group.

Lastly, the offensive line isn’t too shabby.  While the offense lacked pop, up front they got the team to nearly 1700 rushing yards, a 4.8 average as a team, and 14 touchdowns.  While the pass protection broke down at times, that was mostly against the better teams.  They held their own against more evenly matched clubs.

Defensively there are several areas of concern.  Outside linebacker Tre Watson, the front seven is a mess.  I’m not sure he, or a decent secondary, can make up for that.  You may have noticed I haven’t discussed a quarterback yet.  That is because that area of concern could be its own novel.

When Wes Lunt transferred to Illinois from Oklahoma State, there was a lot of excitement because he was a prized recruit when the Cowboys got him.  His career never got on track.  His numbers actually declined each year with 2014 being his best season in an Illinois uniform.  Last year he lost his starting job – possibly due to an injury in the Purdue game but it is unclear.  Anyway, after missing four weeks in the middle of the season, he came back against Wisconsin then started against Iowa and Northwestern.  Why play a senior in two meaningless football games?  Dumb move, Lovie.

Most of the four games that Lunt missed were started by Jeff George Jr.  The freshman played like a freshman, tossing a woeful 40.4%, 5.00 YPA, 4 TDs and 5 INTs.  Also getting a look was Chayce Crouch.  A mobile kid, Crouch looked solid against Purdue going 10/14, 142 yards, 17 carries, 137 rushing yards, and 2 rushing TDs.  He followed that up by a shoulder injury against Rutgers that required surgery and never played again last year.

These two are joined by a JUCO transfer, Dwayne Lawson.  Lawson was a highly ranked recruit several years ago but after a false start at Virginia Tech, he transferred to Garden City CC, before heading to Illinois.  His tiny sample size at Tech isn’t encouraging and neither is the fact that it has been almost two years since he has gone against a power-five defense.  On paper he is better than Crouch or George, but is that really saying much?  The promise is in his upside.  Only time will tell if he can deliver.

2017 Schedule

Ball State

• Best Case – Cardinals are in the middle of their own rebuild, having gone just 4-8 (1-7) in the MAC last year.  1-0
• Worst Case – James Gilbert is a 1300 yard back and if Riley Neal can cut down on his INTs, Ball State should have a really good offense.  0-1
• Prediction – Ball State’s defense finished 114th last year.  Even with a promising looking offense, I’m not sure the Cards are up to taking on a Big Ten club yet.  W, 31-21, 1-0

Western Kentucky

• BC – Hilltoppers take a step back without Jeff Brohm at the helm.  2-0
• WC – Mike White is an extremely talented quarterback and they were pretty good last season, finishing 11-3 (7-1), winning their league and a bowl.  Uh-oh.  0-2
• P – Total, total coin flip.  I could easily see WKU winning this and maybe even being favored by the time the game comes around but, they lost to Vanderbilt last year and struggled with Miami (OH).  Their outstanding RB, Anthony Wales, graduated AND they have a new coach.  That’s a lot of uncertainty for me.  W, 35-31, 2-0

At South Florida

• BC – Despite being the favorite to win the AAC this year and nearly doing so last year, they did finish 117th in total defense.  Lawson lives up to the hype and carves up the Bulls.  3-0
• WC – Two words: Quinton Flowers.  0-3
• P – Charlie Strong should improve that defense and Flowers is by far the best quarterback in the American and one of the better ones nationally.  Factor in a lengthy road trip, I’ll take the Bulls.  L, 31-17, 2-1

Nebraska

• BC – Nebraska has their own issues under center.  They are also changing defenses to the 3-4 and that is seldom a smooth transition.  4-0
• WC – Huskers are a lot like Illinois.  Intriguing receiving group and a lot of questions the rest of the way.  What if NU figures it out and Illinois doesn’t?  0-4
• P – Huskers won this game 31-16 a season ago.  While both teams are in transition, I do think Nebraska still has more talent.  L, 28-24, 2-2 (0-1)

At Iowa

• BC – Iowa also has a new quarterback but that doesn’t matter for this specific game.  Huh?  Well, last year Iowa won 28-0 in a howling wind.  The wind was so bad, Iowa pretty much ignored the passing game and only tossed it 17 times, completing 9, for just 80 yards.  4-1
• WC – Calls to end the Lovie Smith experiment gain traction with a dismal start to the season.  0-5
• P – Despite the big question mark at QB and a second question mark with how new OC Brian Ferentz works out, Iowa still has the best OL and LB group in the division – possibly even the league – and should stack up well against the less talented teams in the league.  L, 28-10, 2-3 (0-2)

Rutgers

• BC – Bowl march gets back on track by taking out the trash at home against a RU team with a lot to rebuild still.  5-1
• WC – Illinois won this game 24-7 last year but most of that had to do with a 5 turnover day by the Knights.  The Illini really didn’t outplay RU by that much.  0-6
• P – Both teams look pretty even but Illinois is a little stronger on their OL plus they are the home team.  When games are coin flips I like to look at the big uglies up front and where the game is being played.  Both lean Illinois.  W, 28-24, 3-3 (1-2)

At Minnesota

• BC – Gophers have a massive OL guiding the lethal 1-2 punch of Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks at running back.  Bowl hopes on hold.  5-2
• WC – Lawson turns out to be a bust, George and Crouch not much better, defense is in shambles and the seat is red hot for Lovie.  0-7
• P – Gophers look set everywhere but quarterback.  It is one of the reasons they are a popular sleeper pick in the west which has Wisconsin and a lot of unknowns.  Even if they don’t win the division, they’ll rack up wins against lesser foes, especially at home.  L, 28-14, 3-4 (1-3)

Wisconsin

• BC – Moral victory as Illinois keeps it much closer than last year’s 48-3 debacle.  5-3
• WC – One of the few veteran QBs in the division, Alex Hornibrook, slices and dices this secondary.  0-8
• P – The OL looks beastly again, the front seven looks lethal, and while no clear number one yet, the Badgers have a stable of running backs ready to put up the huge numbers Wisconsin fans have grown accustom to dating back to when?  At least Ron Dayne.  L, 35-7, 3-5 (1-4)

At Purdue

• BC – After back-to-back losses Illinois finally clinches a .500 record and a most-likely bowl berth by dropping Purdue.  6-3
• WC – It is actually Purdue making a bowl push as part of a rebuild effort and the Illinois nightmare continues.  0-9
• P – While still a mess, Illinois does have a little bit more returning talent than Purdue and it is year two for Lovie Smith so there is some continuity.  W, 28-24, 4-5 (2-4)

Indiana

• BC – If not for being in the stacked east, Indiana might have a great shot at making the title game.  They are really that good…on paper.  That is always the problem with Indiana, what happens if they turn out to be a paper tiger?  Big home win.  7-3
• WC – Then again, not every prediction calling IU a sleeper can be wrong, can it?  0-10
• P – I really like this Indiana team.  They start with a solid OL that will help the run game and keep Richard Lagow upright.  OC Mike DeBord is an accomplished offensive mind and will build off what Kevin Wilson started.  DeBord’s resume includes winning a national title with Michigan, improved Tennessee mightily the last few years, and was even considered to replace Lloyd Carr before UM went with Rich Rod.  Guy has a rich pedigree.  The defense returns almost everyone and was 45th in the nation last year.  Lastly, many see Tom Allen as a step up from Wilson.  It is a strange feeling buying so much stock into Indiana and predicting them to win so many games, especially road league games, but there is an awful lot to like about this club.  L, 35-21, 4-6 (2-5)

At Ohio State

• BC – Another moral victory as Illinois keeps it close for three quarters.  7-4
• WC – Press conference announced for after the game regarding the coaching situation.  0-11
• P – I went long in talking about Indiana so I’ll be short here.  OSU is way better.  L, 42-6, 4-7 (2-6)

Northwestern

• BC – NU is a sleeper in the west thanks to, well, keep reading, but they have some issues.  The OL’s pass protection was shaky last year and the front seven, especially the DL, has questions entering this year.  Despite a lot of upside, maybe they don’t quite resolve these problems and some of the games they won last year become losses.  8-4
• WC – Wildcats win their third straight and 5th out of the last six in this series and do so in convincing fashion.  0-12
• P – So why are the Cats a sleeper?  Justin Jackson is a great running back and QB Clayton Thorson has gobs of experience now.  Throw in a very experienced secondary and you have a lot to like about this team.  I certainly like them in this match-up.  L, 31-21, 4-8 (2-7)

Final Notes

Was Lovie Smith a bad hire?  That is the question Illini nation will be asking if they have another stinker of a season.  It wasn’t just the losses last year, but how they lost.  Turnovers, undisciplined play, and little to no growth all pointed to a team that was poorly coached.  The thing is though, Tim Beckman left this team with nothing.  It was going to be a massive rebuild for anyone and to harshly grade Lovie because of his NFL experience is shortsighted.

It’s important to remember, Lovie last coached in college in 1995!  TWENTY YEARS AGO!!!  That is an eternity in college.  Look at all the revolutionary offenses that have been deployed in college versus the vanilla NFL.  NFL is about one on one match-ups while college has a lot more emphasis on schemes.  On top of that, look at Lovie’s positions in college: four stops as a linebacker coach and two as a defensive back coach.  He has never coordinated or been a head coach in college.

So to answer the question, was Lovie a bad hire?  No.  He is an ongoing experiment and a damn clever one at that.  If it pans out, you have one hell of a big name coaching you.  If not, well, you are at least not trying to sell the fan base on Bill Cubit and being stuck in neutral.

Much like Purdue and Rutgers, I’m not sure looking at the record will be the best way to judge this team.  I was unfairly high on Lovie in year one without considering the above factors and stupidly penciled Illinois into a bowl game.  In reality Beckman left this team in a gargantuan hole.  I wont make the same mistake this year.  I will look for Illinois to make incremental progress and judge Lovie Smith on that progress and that alone.