Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Rutgers

 

We knew it wasn’t going to be a fun 2016 for Rutgers but with the combined factors of new coach and system + difficult schedule + improved Big Ten + Janarion Grant getting hurt = one of the worst Big Ten seasons ever.  In fact, I was so curious how Rutger’s 2-10 (0-9) season stacked up to other oh-fors in the Big Ten I made a spread sheet.  A few notes about the breakdown:

• 1971 Big Ten went to an eight game schedule, Iowa randomly played nine and Northwestern would do the same in 1972.  I cannot find any explanation why
• In the late 1970s the league would go to nine conference games for everyone
• In 1985, the 8 game schedule returned
• 2016 was the first year with a 9 game slate again

Because of this I only looked at the “modern” era from 1971 on.  All teams that went winless was included in my breakdown.  Not all teams were beaten every week as the NCAA had ties during this time period.  With a timeline set I also looked at the following data points:

• Points per game scored – whole season
• Points per game against – whole season
• PPG scored – league games only
• PPG against – league games only
• League shutouts

Here are some quick hitting points:

• Seasons with at least 1 oh-for league team: 22
• Seasons with multiple oh-for league teams: 3
• Total oh-for league teams: 25
• Most times going winless in the league:
  • Northwestern: 7
  • Illinois: 5
  • Indiana: 4
  • Minnesota: 3
  • Iowa and Purdue: 2
  • Wisconsin and Rutgers: 1

Fun facts:

• 1978 featured two winless teams tying each other and adding to their league shutout mark.  Illinois and Northwestern ended their game 0-0
• 1981 Northwestern was shutout the most times of any team with 4 in league and 5 overall
• 1993 Northwestern had the best individual win.  In the non-conference they beat #22 ranked Boston College.  The Eagles would finish 9-3 and be ranked in the polls.
• 1994 Michigan State finished 5-6 (4-4) but had to forfeit all wins.  They were not included in any of my stats but technically speaking are 0-8 according to the Big Ten and NCAA

Stat overview:

• Winless seasons:
  • 1980 Northwestern, 1981 Northwestern, 1984 Indiana: 0-11 (0-9)
  • 1973 Iowa, 1989 Northwestern, and 1997 Illinois: 0-11 (0-8)
  • 1978 Northwestern: 0-10-1 (0-8-1)
• 5 Best records:
  • 1998 Northwestern: 3-9 (0-8)
  • 1988 Minnesota: 2-7-2 (0-6-2)
  • 1973 Indiana, 1993 Northwestern, and 2005 Illinois: 2-9 (0-8)
• 3 Highest scoring teams (whole season):
  • 2007 Minnesota: 26.25
  • 2011 Indiana: 23.36
  • 1989 Northwestern: 21.91
• 3 Worst Points against (whole Season):
  • 1983 Minnesota: 47.00
  • 1981 Northwestern: 45.91
  • 1989 Northwestern: 45.18
• 3 Highest scoring teams (league):
  • 2007 Minnesota: 25.5
  • 1993 Purdue: 23.25
  • 1989 Northwestern: 19.00
• 3 Worst Points against (league):
  • 1981 Northwestern: 47.22
  • 1983 Minnesota: 46.33
  • 1989 Northwestern: 46.25
• Most times shutout in league games:
  • 1981 Northwestern and 2016 Rutgers: 4
  • 1978 Illinois: 3
  • 1978 Northwestern and 2013 Purdue: 2
  • Teams with 1 shutout: 5
  • Teams never shutout: 15

Here is how Rutgers ranked for all of these stats:

• Big Ten Record: 0-9, tied with 5 others for the worst
• Overall Record: 2-10, tied with 1 other for 7th best
• Points for overall: 17.09, 7th of 25
• Points against overall: 40.91, 21st of 25
• Points for league: 9.56, 21st of 25
• Points against league: 40.00, 18th of 25
• League shutouts: 4, tied for most

So, was this the worst team in the history of the league?  No.  The shutouts are really bad but you see the HUGE drop off in points following the Grant injury.  They went from 17.09 points per game for all 12 games but in the nine league games they averaged just 9.56.  Another aspect is they did win two games.  For what its worth, the 1981 Northwestern team is my worst.  Here is how they stack up compared to Rutgers:

• Big Ten Record: 0-9, tied with 5 others for the worst
• Overall Record: 0-11, tied with 5 others for the worst
• Points for overall: 7.45, 25th of 25
• Points against overall: 45.91, 24th of 25
• Points for league: 8.33, 22nd of 25
• Points against league: 47.22, 25th of 25
• League shutouts: 4, tied for most

When you compare this 1981 NU team to last year’s RU club, you can see that while bad, Rutgers wasn’t the worst.

Hopefully you found that dive down the winless rabbit hole as much as I did.  Anyway, with such a big rebuild ahead, let’s get to the few things RU fans have to look forward to this year.  The first is a healthy Janarion Grant combined with Jawaun Harris makes for an exciting receiving duo.  The OL went extremely young last year and gave up a lot of bad plays as a result but three starters are back.  There is something to say about continuity as you rebuild a program.  Much like the OL, the defense took lumps last year with a lot of young players but now they have their top 13 tacklers back.

That’s the good.  The bad is uncertainty at talent depth and quarterback questions galore.  Do the Knights put hot recruit Jonathan Lewis to the wolves as a true freshman or ride with someone more experienced?  There is also a MASSIVE unknown on this staff and that is the new offensive coordinator, Jerry Kill.

The former Minnesota coach is back after an early retirement for health issues and is now tasked with coaching the QBs and calling the plays.  The problem is he he had been a head coach since 1994 until stepping down and has only coordinated offenses once in his career, from 1991 to 1993 with the Pittsburgh State Gorillas in Division II.

With this way-too deep look at Rutgers’s historic place as an oh-for team, their strengths and weaknesses, let’s take a look at their schedule.

2017 Schedule:

Washington

• Best Case – The Huskies drubbed RU 48-13 a season ago.  Keeping this mismatched (on paper) game within 3 touchdowns would be a major step forward.  0-1
• Worst Case – Grant getting injured again.  0-1
• Prediction – Jake Browning is one of my favorite quarterbacks to watch in the nation.  He slices and dices Rutgers.  L, 42-14, 0-1

Eastern Michigan

• BC – The EMU team that was demolished by Missouri last year shows they aren’t up to snuff against power league teams yet.  1-1
• WC – The Eagles went bowling last year for a reason.  They are a very well coached team, even if their talent still lags behind several MAC rivals.  0-2
• P – QB Brogan Roback, RB Ian Ericksen, and WR Sergio Bailey all return for a nice looking EMU team.  While I expect this pesky outfit to be a tough out and compete for their division in the MAC, I think it is worth pointing out that Rutgers beat New Mexico, a bowl winning team, just last season.  It won’t be easy but Rutgers escapes.  W, 24-21, 1-1

Morgan State

• BC – The bad news Bears went just 3-9 (3-5) in the FCS MEAC.  2-1
• WC – Fun fact, Morgan State beat Howard last year.  You know who else beat Howard last year?  Rutgers.  1-2
• P – Just like that Howard game a year ago, the Big Ten size and speed is too much for a rebuilding FCS club.  W, 49-10, 2-1

At Nebraska

• BC – Huskers will have a new quarterback and are changing defenses to a 3-4 which is never easy BUT, this is the first road trip of the season for Rutgers and it is a long one.  Not sure how the young team will respond.   2-2
• WC – The first Big Ten road trip for Rutgers last year was a 58-0 thumping in Columbus.  1-3
• P – If this game was in New Jersey, I would be willing to at least hear some arguments as to why the Knights would pull off the upset but with the game in Lincoln, I’m sold.  L, 35-14, 2-2 (0-1)

Ohio State

• BC – The talent gap in this game is huge.  It might be the largest difference for any power five match-up.  2-3
• WC – Knights lost 78-0 to Michigan last year.  Hard to do much worse than that.  1-4
• P – Sometimes Ohio State has so many good players that they enter the following season with half their roster in the NFL.  That time isn’t this year.  From J.T. Barrett to an experienced OL to a defense that returns their top five sack leaders from last year, the Buckeyes aren’t just Big Ten title hopefuls, they’re national title hopefuls.  L, 52-10, 2-3 (0-2)

At Illinois

• BC – This game is a testament to how bad Rutgers struggled last year offensively once Grant went town.  Not only was he a great playmaker but has incredible hands.  So against the Illini, RU was held to just 7 points and had a whopping 5 turnovers last year.  A healthy Grant gives them a shot in this game because outside turnover margin, Illinois really didn’t outplay the Knights.  3-3
• WC – Illinois has a better skill position group returning.  Perhaps they find a decent new quarterback while Rutgers continues to struggle at that position.  1-5
• P – When two teams are as evenly matched as Illinois and Rutgers are, I like to look at who is the stronger club along the line and who is the home team.  It appears both go the Illini’s way.  L, 28-24, 2-4 (0-3)

Purdue

• BC – Over in the Purdue BC/WC/P preview, I highlight all the issues Purdue has as they attempt to implement a brand new offense.  4-3
• WC – Purdue’s improbable bowl berth is aided by picking off all the lightweights on their schedule.  Rutgers qualifies as a lightweight.  1-6
• P – Defensively the Boilermakers have an unproven DL and secondary.  Sounds like a good opportunity for the passing game.  Based on the playmakers that RU has in Grant and Harris, I like the Scarlet Knight’s chances to break through in this one.  W, 28-24, 3-4 (1-3)

At Michigan

• BC – Remember for OSU how I said sometimes there are a whole lot of faces…well that is what Michigan has this year.  However, they do still have a dang good quarterback in Wilton Speight and several outstanding recruiting classes that still give the Wolverines the edge against a lot of teams, including Rutgers.  4-4
• WC – I think I can guarantee that the Knights don’t lose by 78 again.  1-7
• P – Rutgers is in the second year of a massive rebuild.  Their lowest point last year was losing this game 78-0.  Even with the departures at Michigan, the Maize and Blue are still clearly better.  I don’t really care what RU’s overall record looks like, I just want to see some progress.  I think they make a little in this one.  L, 42-17, 3-5 (1-4)

Maryland (Game played at Yankee Stadium, NYC)

• BC – Maryland’s so-so OL and unproven QB situation never really resolves itself.  Meanwhile, Rutgers gets a huge emotional boost from playing this game in the Big Apple and come out on fire.  5-4
• WC – Outside the QB concerns, Maryland actually returns a lot of intriguing talent.  Plus they made a bowl last year.  1-8
• P – Maryland’s OL issues were in pass protection.  Running wasn’t an issue last year and between Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III, UM has a running back tandem to be very worried about.  L, 31-14, 3-6 (1-5)

At Penn State

• BC – This was another shutout last year, finishing 39-0.  Rutgers shows growth by holding the Lions to 28 or less and scores some points in a moral victory.  5-5
• WC – Lions are in the midst of another Big Ten title campaign and firing on all cylinders this late in the season.  1-9
• P – The offensive firepower back for Penn State is impressive…and then you see what they have on defense.  They are loaded.  Rutgers will sadly be cannon fodder in this one.  L, 49-7, 3-7 (1-6)

At Indiana

• BC – Normally Indiana is a win on everyone’s best case season but not this year.  Hoosiers upgraded their coach and have a boatload of talent back.  They are a popular sleeper pick for a reason.  5-6
• WC – All the quarterback options stink by this point so Ash has literally zero clue how to fix the offense for year three of his time in Piscataway.  1-10
• P – Indiana has edge at QB, skill position, OL, defense, and the home team.  If I told you that but switched Indiana with say…Wisconsin, who would you take?  Exactly.  L, 38-14, 3-8 (1-7)

Michigan State

• BC – Michigan State was awful last year and still won this game 49-0; however, the Spartans had an off-season from hell with all the controversy surrounding sexual crimes committed by players and Dantonio is in some hot water.  Maybe it all comes crashing down in East Lansing and the Knights take full advantage on senior day to make the postseason.  6-6
• WC – Back-to-back oh-for league seasons and a worse overall record than last year drops Chris Ash to 3-21 (0-18).  He gets canned as one of the worst coaches in Big Ten history.  1-11
• P – I don’t think MSU is going to be particularly good this year and Rutgers will certainly be in the game…BUT, State’s DL is still a really good unit with four starters back so even if the Spartans struggle to put up points, I think their defense can let them steal some wins.  This is one of those wins.  L, 21-13, 3-9 (1-8)

Final Notes

The quick fix has become popular.  Harbaugh had Michigan in the thick of things in his first year.  Fuente took Virginia Tech to the ACC title game his first year.  On the flip side, Nebraska is already on edge about Mike Riley.  This isn’t how football used to work.  Even as recently as when Kirk Ferentz was hired coaches were given time.  Ferentz’s first year was a 1-10 (0-8) stinker.  Almost the same as Ash’s.  Ferentz’s second year was a 3-9 (3-5) grind that saw the team knock off Northwestern that would be co-champs of the league.  The progress was clear, even if the overall record wasn’t much better.  The third season saw Iowa back in a bowl.

Why do I share this story for pretty much every rebuilding team?  Because, to me at least, it shows the trajectory of most rebuilds.  If Rutgers improves their 2 win 2016 to a 3 win 2017 and go from 4 league shutouts and a 0-9 mark to a more competitive season, that will be great.  That will show the build is going correctly.  If they do that AND go young at QB with Jonathan Lewis and he improves individually over the course of the season, then I would call the season a success.  Yes, a success, even without a bowl.  Not everything is measured in a trip to the TaxSlayer Bowl.