Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2017 Purdue

It is August first which means….THE BLOG IS BACK AFTER A LENGTHY OFFSEASON.  Woo-Hoo.  If you want to know what I’ve been up to this summer, check out the Illegal Motion podcast.  Its on itunes, stitcher, twitter, all that good stuff.

It has been a long time since a team entered a football season as hopeless as the fans in Boilermaker nation felt last fall. After three dismal seasons, Darrell Hazell was inexplicably given a fourth crack at showing improvement – ANY improvement at all. An 18-point loss in week two to Cincinnati pretty much answered the question if Purdue was heading in the right direction. Two weeks later Maryland hammered Purdue 50-7. Two weeks after that Iowa jumped out to a 42-14 lead. While the 21 point fourth quarter against Iowa’s scrubs made the score cosmetic the damage was done. At 3-3, 1-2, Purdue finally ended the Hazell marriage.

For the new head coach, well, Purdue couldn’t have done much better. In comes Jeff Brohm as headman and his brother Brian as OC. Their pass-heavy offense has a natural fit when you think back of quarterback U’s passing legacy right up until the last day of Joe Tiller’s tenure.

For those of you unfamiliar with Jeff Brohm, he has spent the last three years at Western Kentucky. Yes, this is the school Bobby Petrino went to rebuild his name before bolting after one season and returning to Louisville. Then Willy Taggert coached the Hilltoppers for three seasons, winning 14 games over his final two years. Despite these impressive names as a foundation, Brohm took them into orbit. Under Brohm, WKU went 30-10, 19-5, made and won three bowl games (Brohm didn’t coach the 2016 Boca Raton Bowl), won two C-USA titles, and finished 2015 nationally ranked. Dude can coach.

The overarching question for 2017 and Purdue is, despite upgrading the coach, what has the previous staff left? The answer, as with most coaching changes is, not much. Let’s start with the positives though. Markell Jones has averaged 745 yards and 7 scores through the first two years of his career. Even with the air attack spread the Brohm Brothers use, WKU still ran the ball for 2609 yards as a team last year, 1621 coming alone from Anthony Wales. Wales carried it 237 times last year. Whereas Jones had just 153 rushes. Get ready to run, Markell.

Another positive for Purdue is they have a rock solid center in Keith Barron. Add in two dynamic tight ends in Cole Herdman and Brycen Hopkins and you have the makings of some nice packages for the offense to work from. Defensively things aren’t hopeless, either. Markus Bailey anchors an athletic group of linebackers that are quietly one of the better outfits in the league.

Unfortunately that concludes the good things Purdue has at their disposal for 2017. The questions and bad aspects of this team are many. In terms of the unknowns the defensive line and secondary are rather unproven but this pales in comparison to the question at quarterback. David Blough is back for his junior year after a rather up and down first two parts to his career.

Back in 2015 Blough showed flashes as a freshman, becoming the go-to guy by week four. His 57.7% completion percentage and paltry 5.47 yards per attempt resulted in just 1500 passing yards and a meager 10 TDs to 8 INTs. As a sophomore he more than doubled his yards to 3352 and his TDs, tossing 25. Unfortunately his yards per attempt didn’t even get to 6.5 and he nearly tripled his INTs, throwing 21 of them. By comparison the quarterback the Brohms left behind in Bowling Green Kentucky, Mike White, has thrown 23 interceptions, total, in three years. The offense demands ball security and up to this point in his career, Blough has had none.

Last thought on personnel, despite the two TEs, this receiving corps is also unproven. I know the Brohm Bros forget more offense in a day then I’ll ever learn but I just don’t see how a shaky quarterback like Blough, lingering questions at receiving, and this passing offense can coexist in year one.

If the offensive questions didn’t make you worried about Purdue’s prospects, their schedule will. I go game-by-game but just to give a snapshot here: yikes! They open with defending Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and his Louisville team. Their other non-conference dates are MAC contender Ohio and a trip to SEC Missouri. Once in league the hits keep coming. Michigan and Minnesota open things up; Purdue will be heavy underdogs in both, and then a trip to Wisconsin. There is a very real possibility the Boilermakers will be 0-6. What a rough way for a new staff to open up.

2017 Schedule:

Louisville (Game at Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis, Indiana)

• Best Case – Purdue gave up 38+ points seven times last year. Holding Jackson’s highflying offense to 35 or less should be a nice defensive goal. 0-1
• Worst Case – In 2013 Purdue lost to Ohio State 56-0. They gained 116 yards to OSU’s 640. Not all blowouts are created equal.
• Prediction – Last year Louisville creamed Syracuse in week two of the season 62-28. The Syracuse team last year has many similarities to what Purdue is looking at this year. L, 59-20, 0-1

Ohio

• BC – Despite winning their division, Ohio did lose to Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Texas State, and their bowl to Troy. Nice team but in theory even Purdue has a chance. 1-1
• WC – Ohio beat Kansas, 37-21 last year. In theory, Purdue is as bad, if not worse, than Kansas. 0-2
• P – Ohio used two QBs last year. Both are back. Ohio has a decent back in Dorian Brown, he’s back. Lastly, a solid wideout in Sebastian Smith is also back. Ohio’s experienced offense will get the job done. L, 28-17, 0-2

 At Missouri

• BC – Mizzou went 4-8 last year and won just two SEC teams. An early marquee win for the new staff. 2-1
• WC – Tigers went 2-1 down the last three and both wins were over bowl-bound teams. Missouri returns to a bowl thanks to picking off bad teams like Purdue. 0-3
• P – Drew Lock had a much improved sophomore season and looks to build as he moves into an upperclassmen leadership role. Helping him out is a talented back in Damarea Crocket – a thousand yard back as a freshman – and 1,000 yard receiver J’Mon Moore. Too much offense for Purdue to handle. L, 42-21, 0-3

 

Michigan

• BC – Michigan has a lot of new faces but is still more talented and deeper than the Boilermakers. 2-2
• WC – The biggest thing for Purdue this year is to develop that offense and find playmakers for the future. What if that doesn’t happen? 0-4
• P – Michigan might be the hardest team to discuss this season with so many new pieces but they still have Wilton Speight under center and with his arm versus a Purdue secondary that is also rebuilding, I like Michigan’s chances. L, 35-17, 0-4 (0-1)

 Minnesota

• BC – Gophers are one of several Big Ten West teams breaking in a new quarterback. If the Gophers get no production via the passing game, I don’t care how good RB duo of Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks is, UM is at least a tad vulnerable. 3-2
• WC – Minnesota is a legit sleeper in the west. They upgraded their coaching staff, have a solid OL and three extremely talented returning defensive starters that will help elevate the new faces around them, 0-5
• P – Gophers had a shaky 44-31 win last year despite Purdue producing 23 rushing yards on 28 carries. An upset is possible, but smart money is with Minnesota. L, 31-21, 0-5 (0-2)

 At Wisconsin

• BC – Wisconsin is the team to beat in the West thanks to a returning starting qb, a deep OL, and a defensive front seven that is athletic, experienced, and can diagnose plays quickly. Lethal combo. 3-3
• WC – Another veteran QB in Alex Hornibrook carves up the Purdue defense. 0-6
• P – Wisconsin exploded for 35 points in the second quarter last year. While I don’t see it being as lopsided or featuring such a flurry this year, Badgers are still head and shoulders above Purdue. L, 35-10, 0-6 (0-3)

 At Rutgers

• BC – Purdue’s bowl hopes take a step forward with a nice league road win at a Rutgers team that is still only a year and a half into a several season rebuild. 4-3
• WC – Everything gets sloppier as the team just starts going through the motions. 0-7
• P – I am torn on this game because somebody has to win and the loser will probably go winless in the league. Because it is at home and Rutgers does have some pieces, most notably WR Janarion Grant, I’ll take RU. L, 28-24, 0-7 (0-4)

 

 Nebraska

• BC – Purdue really hung in this one a year ago, losing just 27-14. Between a new QB to break in and switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme maybe, just maybe, Purdue picks up win number 5. 5-3
• WC – Nebraska’s WR duo of Stanley Morgan and De’Mornay Pierson-El is electric. 0-8
• P – If Purdue had more talent back on offense, a valid argument would be that by week eight they could pick off a few upsets. Unfortunately the unknowns at wideout combined with not fully trusting Blough means the wise thing to do is pick Nebraska. L, 31-21, 0-8 (0-5)

 

Illinois

• BC – Stop me if you’ve heard this before…another Big Ten West team with more questions than answers at the quarterback position. Stop the presses folks, Purdue is bowling. 6-3
• WC – Illinois has a better OL and skill position players even with the uncertainty at quarterback. 0-9
• P – Illinois is a mess but have a little bit more returning talent and it is year two for Lovie Smith so there is some continuity. This or the Rutgers games are Purdue’s best shot at breaking through in year one of Jeff Brohm. L, 21-17, 0-9 (0-6)

At Northwestern

• BC – Wildcats are a popular western sleeper thanks to Justin Jackson at back, Clayton Thorson tossing the pigskin, and an experienced secondary. 6-4
• WC – To add insult to injury, a key underclassman sustains a brutal injury late in the year, further derailing the rebuild. 0-10
• P – Cats won this 45-17 a year ago and on paper at least, look stronger than last year’s club. L, 42-21, 0-10 (0-7)

 At Iowa

• BC – Hawkeyes have the best OL and LB group in the division, possibly the league. Even if Iowa struggles with a new quarterback, they can hold home serve against the Boilermakers. 7-4
• WC – Brohm is a good coach and a great hire, other than dinging his career winning percentage, his leash is insanely long for his first three seasons. 0-11
• P – Akrum Wadley rushes for 175 and 3 scores. L, 38-10, 0-11 (0-8)

 

 

 Indiana

• BC – The Hoosiers look stacked, relatively speaking for Indiana football. Between Richard Lagow at QB, the line, Tegray Scales and Richard Fant on defense, and a possible upgrade in coaching, IU is a popular sleeper in the east. Even if Purdue manages to make a bowl, I think their rival gets the Old Oaken Bucket. 7-5
• WC – What is worse than going oh-for? I don’t know, maybe the big drum falls out of its carriage, rolls like the big rock in Indiana Jones and runs over Purdue Pete? 0-12
• P – Too much offense from the Crimson and Cream. Yuck, cannot believe I gave into Indiana’s love of their colors. L, 42-24, 0-12 (0-9)

Final Notes

I do these predictions based purely on the head to head without slotting teams into a certain number of wins. If I did play the slot type prediction game, I think Purdue can win either the Rutgers game or the Illinois game…maybe even both as well as that Ohio game. Purdue is still reeling from a disastrous stretch with a coach in over his head but their talent gap between the Illini and Scarlet Knights isn’t an ocean. Plus, between Brohm, Chris Ash, and Lovie Smith, Brohm is clearly the most accomplished college coach. I stress college because Lovie’s NFL resume is impressive, but hasn’t translated to 18-22 year olds yet.

Even if Purdue does go winless, there is already a renewed hope and excitement for this team. A successful season won’t be measured in wins or losses but in terms of individual improvement, unit improvement, statistics, and finding what underclassmen deserve max playing time this year to help jump-start the rebuild. Along the way if Blough gets clicking and the team wins some games, it is an added perk but the overall record will not be a good reflection of the growth of this team in the first season of what will be a several year rebuild.