Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you. Here’s an important point to make before we jump in. Who should have been in the tournament? My biggest complaint would have been if Michigan had slipped in after a Clemson or Washington upset. That was my biggest grievance. While I think Penn State’s resume is pretty close to OSU’s plus the head-to-head, plus the league championship, they have an extremely compelling argument for being in…but so does Ohio State. That leads me to this:
My biggest beef is that the committee lacks transparency. In 2014 TCU is left out because they don’t have a conference title game and Baylor was left out because of a weak non-conference schedule. In 2015 Stanford is left out because of two losses as a league champion but was clearly more dangerous than Oklahoma and Michigan State. Also in 2015, OSU was left out after going 11-1 to Michigan State who won the league. So why is 2016 totally different with Washington and a weak non-con and OSU doing the same thing as last year but being rewarded? It is infuriating. For the record, I believe this tournament has to be AT LEAST eight teams. I’m fine with nuking the conference title games and going to 16 or even the FCS level 24 and the top eight all get byes. Anyway, here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (61)
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Washington
- Penn State
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Wisconsin
- USC
- Florida State
- Colorado
- Western Michigan
- Oklahoma State
- West Virginia
- Louisville
- Stanford
- Auburn
- Virginia Tech
- LSU
- Florida – Hmm, another head-to-head ignored since last time I checked, UF beat LSU. I’m teasing, UF has to be dropped after that stinker against ‘Bama.
- Iowa
- Pittsburgh
- Temple
- Nebraska
- South Florida
My Top 25:
- Alabama
- Ohio State – Just because I think Penn State should be in the tournament, doesn’t mean I believe OSU is diminished. Remember, OSU beat seven bowl-bound teams: the same number as Penn State and one of those was against Michigan, a team that clubbed Penn State.
- Washington
- Clemson
- Penn State – Clemson beat more bowl teams (9) than Penn State did. Let me reiterate, my biggest concern was Michigan sneaking in. I’m not thrilled with OSU being in because it goes against what we learned in 2014 and 2015 and I strongly dislike the lack of transparency but OSU is very deserving as well.
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Florida State
- Western Michigan
- Oklahoma
- USC
- Colorado
- Louisville
- Auburn
- Oklahoma State
- West Virginia
- Virginia Tech
- LSU
- Pittsburgh
- Iowa
- Stanford
- -25. SEE BELOW – FINAL VERDICT
See Below, What the Hell Is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try to state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
I had Navy and South Florida ranked a week ago with Temple just on the outside looking in. I know USF and Temple will be ranked but I’m not sure where, that is why I’m holding off finalizing the last four spots on my poll. Navy’s resume will also get an extra glance compared to the nation.
AAC Nominee: Temple, USF (locks), Navy
Atlantic Coast Conference
Pitt cracked my poll a week ago and was safe this week so no the search expands to North Carolina, Miami, and Georgia Tech. Tech was swept by these two teams but had the most impressive non-conference victory (Vanderbilt, 38-7) and was the only team in this trio to beat their division winner, Virginia Tech. All told they beat four teams going to bowls and finished hot going 3-0 down the stretch. Miami was even hotter with a four game winning streak to end and also beat four bowl teams, including Pitt. They lost to UNC and even worse lost to that Notre Dame team.
That leaves the Tar Heels, who finished the coldest at 1-2 but swept these two teams and had the most impressive win of the trio over Florida State. They too beat four bowl-bound clubs this year. Despite the sloppy finish, the fact that they knocked off Pitt, FSU, Miami, and smoked Georgia Tech in their head-to-head by 28 has me moving UNC to the next round.
ACC Nominee: North Carolina
Mountain West Conference
Boise State was ranked a week ago and didn’t play so they will be a lock…but where? I also took a peek at SDSU, the league champion, and New Mexico, who obliterated Wyoming – the league runner-up. My problem with SDSU is that they lost the last two games of the year and the finale against Colorado State was ugly. They also have a very soft schedule with just one win over a bowl-bound team: 6-7 Hawai’i.
New Mexico has a similar issue. They knocked off that same Hawai’i team but also adds a nice victory over Air Force to the pot. The weakest part of their resume is an ugly non-conference. They lost to in-state rival New Mexico State and Rutgers. Boise will be the only representative.
Mountain West Nominee: Boise State (lock)
Pacific 12 Conference
With Stanford securely in, my eyes move down to Washington State and Utah. Neither finished strong with Wazzu going 0-2 down the stretch and Utah going 1-3 over the final month. With three teams locked into place and more impressive resumes out there (each only has two victories over bowl-bound clubs) I will save everyone’s time and knock em both out here.
Pac 12 Nominee: No One
Southeastern Conference
Florida was ranked a week ago and Texas A&M was nominated last week so I took a look at them. A&M was quickly eliminated this time last week and will be here too. UF has wins over six bowl-bound teams and the Aggies just have four. UF also played one fewer regular season game because of the hurricane re-schedule.
SEC Nominee: Florida
Elimination Time
The above six teams join BYU, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Western Kentucky to form a master list of 10 teams trying to get the last four spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…After a 1-3 start, BYU should get a lot of credit for finishing 8-4 but unfortunately for them they played a FCS team so in reality they are a 7-4 team AND then you look at their strength of schedule. Just two wins over bowl-bound teams and one is Mississippi State who made a bowl at 5-7. Peace out in Provo.
Kansas State also gets the boot. I like this Wildcat team but their 8-4 mark is closer to a 7-4 mark with the FCS win taken out. They beat no one with a winning record as their two best wins, Baylor and TCU, finished just 6-6. Despite the 5-1 finish, not enough love in the little apple yet.
Finally, North Carolina has to go. I realize their Florida State and Pitt wins hold up very well nationally but they took on TWO lower level teams. Even with Citadel being really good, that adjusts them to 6-4 in FBS competition. Not going to cut it. Take it outside, Tar Heels.
Bad Game(s)…Of the teams remaining just one has multiple losses of 30+ points and that is Nebraska. Their 62-3 loss to OSU and 40-10 loss to Iowa really stand out. Worse, of their five wins over bowl-bound teams just one finished better than the skeptical 6-6 bowl playin’ mark. No luck for Nebraska.
Final Six
From 10 to six as I search for my 22nd through 25th ranked teams. Since I had Boise State and South Florida ranked a week ago they are locks. With Temple’s AAC triumph they are also a lock. Since I’m looking for my final team I will just examine UF, Navy, and Western Kentucky. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Florida
- BW: LSU
- WW: UMass
- BL: at Tennessee (by 10)
- WL: Alabama (by 38)
- Navy
- BW: Houston
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Air Force (by 14)
- WL: Temple (by 24)
- Western Kentucky
- BW: Louisiana Tech
- WW: FCS
- BL: Vanderbilt (by 1)
- W: at Alabama (by 28)
I’m not seeing a whole lot of separation, are you? Florida has the best win, but the worst losses. I decided to expand to bowl-bound wins. UF leads with six (one over a 5-7 team). Western has five (including beating the same 5-7 team as UF) and Navy has just three. The fact that Navy’s non-con was also weaker compared to fellow group of five member WKU leaves me wanting more. For comparison, Navy schedled a FCS, Notre Dame, and Army (to be played) compared to Western’s two SEC teams, Miami (OH), and FCS clinches it. I’m booting the Midshipmen.
The deciding factor between Western and Florida has to do with who is there as a team. WKU just lost their coach but Florida has had a rash of injuries. It has shown in the second half of the season. WKU has ripped off seven straight wins, including four over bowl teams. Florida has finished 2-3 since their magnificent Georgia win. Both wins were over bowl teams but South Carolina should not be confused with a good team. I’m going to give some love to C-USA over this Gators team that seems to have fallen and can’t get up.
Alright, so I have the final team to join my three locks. Why were they locks – outside of two being ranked last week – well…Temple has won seven straight, won the AAC, beat three bowl teams, and beat USF who I had ranked a week ago. USF has won ten games with three over bowl teams, including thrashing this highly respected Navy team, and has a nice power five non-con win at an improved Syracuse team. Boise has two non-con power five wins (one is Washington State), five wins over bowl teams, and ten wins overall. Pretty clear, in my opinion.
So how do these teams stack up? Last week I had Boise State over USF (24 and 25) so that should remain but Temple has the win over USF and the conference chip to go with it. I think Temple has to be ahead of USF, too. By having more wins and more power five wins (2 versus 0) it stands to reason Boise should be ahead of Temple. Western has the five bowl wins, but one was 6-6 Miami (OH) and another was 5-7 North Texas. Of their three legit bowl-bound teams (Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, and Middle Tennessee) those teams combined for a 6-6 non conference record and just one win (MT vs Missouri) over a power-five team. There was a lot of FCS in there, independent UMass, and a lot of other slop. In fact, of the good C-USA teams only Western’s win over 6-6 Miami (OH) marked a non-conference win over a bowl-bound club. I think that leaves Western at 25th and by process of elimination, the two AAC teams and Boise are also now slotted.
FINAL VERDICT:
22. Boise State
23. Temple
24. USF
25. Western Kentucky
League Breakdown:
5 – ACC, Big Ten
4 – Pac 12
3 – Big 12, SEC
2 – American
1 – C-USA, MAC, Mountain West
Big Ten and Counting 