Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you. The chaotic end of the season has resulted in six new teams entering the polls. I’d love to tease the AP about this but in my poll I had lower ranked teams Washington State (25), Wyoming (24), Texas A&M (22), North Carolina (20), Houston (18), and Boise State (17) all lose so it’s not like I was setting the world on fire, either. Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (61)
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Washington
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Oklahoma
- Penn State
- Colorado – Okay, so this seems like the cut off for teams with a shot to make the CFP. USC is red hot but a three loss team even with winning the Pac 12 faced long, long odds of making the tournament. CU’s win ended any hope of that. Alabama and Clemson are nearly locks based on how their title game match ups look. A Washington win, they’re in. That then means the Big 10 title game and OSU becomes sticky. By not having a league title, OSU needs to hope Colorado and Virginia Tech makes things wonky because without that data point this time next week, they face an uphill climb.
- USC
- Oklahoma State
- Florida State
- Western Michigan
- West Virginia
- Florida
- Louisville
- Stanford
- Auburn
- Virginia Tech
- Navy
- LSU
- Iowa
- Nebraska – A tad surprised they are still ranked, honestly.
- Pittsburgh
USF – Pitt and USF have the same number of points (168)
My Top 25:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Washington
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Wisconsin – Keeping UM ahead for now because the Wolverines have the head-to-head but if Wisconsin wins Saturday, they will flip again and could possibly jump Ohio State, too because the Buckeyes don’t have a title. That matters per the committee and me.
- Florida State
- Penn State
- Western Michigan
- Colorado
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- USC
- Louisville
- Auburn
- West Virginia
- Navy
- Florida
- LSU
- Virginia Tech
- -25. SEE BELOW – FINAL VERDICT
See Below, What the Hell Is That?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Another week, another mess coming from the American. USF, Temple, Tulsa, Houston, and Memphis all have competing arguments. South Florida has the best record at 10-2 but lost to Temple and won’t even win the AAC-East. Temple, the winners of the division, are 9-3 but lost to Army. Can they overcome that?
Out west Houston has the best wins (Louisville and Oklahoma) but lost to Navy (forgivable), SMU (unforgivable), and then disinterested with their coach bolting in a loss to Memphis. Those Tigers also have a win over, yup, Temple. But of course Memphis lost to a team that I think has a nice resume in Tulsa. As you can see it is a total cluster. Due to not being able to separate them, I am going to do what I did a few weeks ago and put ALL of them to the national round.
AAC Nominee: Houston, Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, USF
Atlantic Coast Conference
North Carolina was ranked ago so they will automatically get looked at. Joining them in consideration is Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pitt. The Yellow Jackets won their last three, including stunning Virginia Tech to start the streak. They were swept by the other three, however. More damaging is they have a worse ACC record at 4-4 while the others are all 5-3. Their non conference slate was also easier than Pitt and UNC’s. Love the turnaround in Atlanta, but they can’t get ranked yet.
Miami has won four straight and also beat Pitt but they failed to beat Virginia Tech, UNC, or Florida State – the three best teams, in terms of talent, on their schedule. Worse, their non conference was a joke with FAMU and Florida Atlantic. App State is nice but they were the only team among these four that didn’t play a power five team in the non-con. They are also out as a result.
That leaves Pitt and UNC. Identical 8-4 (5-3) records and even their head-to-head is useless since it was a one-point game. UNC has the Florida State win which I love and crushed Georgia Tech by 28. Pitt is the hotter team though. They went 3-0 down the stretch with a win over Clemson. UNC went 1-2 with losses to Duke and N.C. State. Between being hotter and the win over Penn State in the non-con, I’m going with the Panthers.
ACC Nominee: Pittsburgh
Big Ten
Nebraska was ranked a week ago and Iowa was nominated a week ago. The two squared off and Iowa crushed them. Iowa is advancing, regardless, but I’m curious if NU’s 9-3 mark holds up. They do have 5 wins over bowl teams and took Wisconsin to overtime. I think they should be compared to the nation and not just Iowa.
Big Ten Nominee: Iowa and Nebraska
Conference USA
This league has three teams with sexy records: Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, and Old Dominion. Tech and Western will square off for the title but the Bulldogs topped the Hilltoppers earlier in the season. WKU has the head-to-head over division mate ODU. As much as I’d like to rank the Monarchs, they haven’t earned it yet. Still, awesome season.
That leaves WKU and Tech. Tech, having clinched their division, had a flat performance in a loss to Southern Miss. WKU is rolling, having won six straight wince the loss to the Bulldogs. Despite the head-to-head loss, WKU is the only team that warrants a closer look after La Tech dropped the finale to USM.
C-USA Nominee: Western Kentucky
Mountain West Conference
Boise State and Wyoming were ranked a week ago so they get another look. Joining them is fellow Mountain division co-champ New Mexico and nine-win Air Force. SDSU, the winners of the Western Division, also got a glance. It was a quick glance because SDSU has been a disappointment as of late, wrapping up the year 0-2 with losses to Wyoming and getting smoked by CSU so the Aztecs are gone despite having nine wins and one of the league’s best running backs.
New Mexico just waxed Wyoming but they were destroyed by Boise State, lost to Rutgers, and fell to rival New Mexico State. Solid season for the Lobos but not worthy of a ranking. Speaking of solid seasons, Wyoming may be representing the division against SDSU and their win over Boise is nice but they finished flat, going just 1-2 in crunch time.
That leaves Boise and Air Force. They have the most wins at 10 and 9 (SDSU also has the same number of wins as Air Force) but neither can play for the league crown. Boise hangs their hat on having double digit wins, beating Washington State, and destroying New Mexico. Air Force counters with their head-to-head over Boise and knocking off Navy. Both lost to Wyoming but the Falcons also lost to New Mexico and even more head-scratching, Hawaii. Despite not wanting to play either of these teams, I’m not sure either is worthy of being ranked. 10-2 is hard to ignore though, so I will advance Boise State for the time being.
Mountain West Nominee: Boise State
Pacific 12 Conference
Washington State was ranked a week ago so they get another look. Stanford will be stacked up next to them. As a point of clarity, I did not have Utah ranked a week ago so they were left out following that hard-fought Colorado loss. Wazzu went 8-4 with two losses to start and end the year but a whole lot of good in between, including smoking Stanford, 42-16. Stanford started hot (3-0), slumped (1-3), then finished strong (5-0). While I believe it is a season long sport and rewarding strong finishes is sometimes silly, Wazzu has the extra chip of losing to a FCS team and now a worse overall record than the Cardinal. Stanford will get the nod.
Pac 12 Nominee: Stanford
Southeastern Conference
Texas A&M was ranked a week ago so they get the auto look. No other SEC team was on the fence so the Aggies will be fast-tracked to a national comparison.
SEC Nominee: Texas A&M
Elimination Time
The above 12 teams join BYU and Kansas State to form a master list of 14 teams trying to get the last five spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…Former conference foes Texas A&M and Kansas State are hurt here, as is BYU. The Cougars are 8-4, finishing strong after that awful 1-3 start. Included in their run however is FCS Southern Utah. This, when added with wins over awful Arizona, UMass, and Utah State translate to an easy schedule. B.Y.E to BYU.
As for the former Big 12 opponents, A&M’s 8-4 record turns into 7-4 without that FCS win. They also finished 2-4 down the stretch. Those two wins were New Mexico State and UTSA…yikes. Adios, Aggies. Kansas State still has a game left so their 7-4 is turned into 6-4 with the FCS triumph. Even worse they have just one win over a team with a winning record: free falling and 6-5 Baylor. Catch ya later, Kansas State.
Bad Game(s)…The first to go from this criteria is Memphis. Despite the 8-4 mark and wins over Temple and Houston, their 4 losses haven’t been pretty: 20 to Ole Miss, 14 to Navy, 29 to Tulsa, and 7 to USF. Thanks for playing, Tigers. Next to go is fellow AAC club Houston. I love their wins but man when they lose, they lose spectacularly. They gave up 48 points and about a trillion yards to Memphis. They looked like a team that had never even heard of the option against Navy. Lastly the pièce de résistance, the 22 point shelling by 5-7 (3-5) SMU. Like the Tar Heels, when Houston is on they are one of the scariest teams out there, but when they are off – they are really off.
Final Nine
From 12 to nine as I search for my 21st through 25th ranked teams. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Boise State
- BW: Washington State
- WW: Utah State
- BL: at Air Force (by 7)
- WL: at Wyoming (by 2)
- Iowa
- BW: Michigan
- WW: Rutgers
- BL: Wisconsin (by 8)
- WL: FCS (by 2)
- Nebraska
- BW: Minnesota
- WW: Fresno State
- BL: at Wisconsin (by 6 in OT)
- WL: at Iowa (by 30)
- Pittsburgh
- BW: at Clemson
- WW: FCS
- BL: Virginia Tech (by 3)
- WL: at Miami (by 23)
- Stanford
- BW: USC
- WW: Rice
- BL: Colorado (by 5)
- WL: Washington State (by 26)
- Temple
- BW: USF
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Penn State (by 7)
- WL: Army (by 15)
- Tulsa
- BW: at Memphis
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Navy (by 2)
- WL: at Ohio State (by 45)
- USF
- BW: Navy
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: Florida State (by 20)
- Western Kentucky
- BW: at Middle Tennessee
- WW: FCS
- BL: Vanderbilt (by 1)
- WL: at Louisiana Tech (by 3)
The first thing that jumps out is WKU’s best win not really stacking up nor is their worst loss really that forgivable. For MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA teams they really need to either have an insane record or pull off a stunning win. Western has failed to do both. The other thing that was obvious is just how good Iowa, Pittsburgh, and Stanford’s best win stood out. All three wins are against still highly ranked team so all three of these deserve to be in.
Since I have three of my final five set, I am going to look really hard at Boise, Nebraska, and that trio from the AAC. One tool I have found useful is opponents W-L as well as second best win. I will deploy both of them now. First is second-best win:
- Boise State: at New Mexico (8-4)
- Nebraska: Wyoming (8-4)
- Temple: UCF (6-6)
- Tulsa: UCF (6-6)
- USF: at Memphis (8-4)
Ah, that gives some clarity. USF has the the best win and the second best win among that AAC trio. By having the weakest best win of the group combined with a mediocre second best win Tulsa will get eliminated. Now lets take a look at the opponents W-L for the remaining four teams. The first number is overall the number in the parentheses is opponent’s W-L in wins only.
- Boise State: 74-40 (57-63)
- Nebraska: 74-70 (45-63)
- Temple: 68-74 (44-63)
- USF: 69-73 (51-67)
So this data quickly knocks out Temple. They have the worst overall opponents W-L but their wins have come against the worst. Nebraska is barely better but USF, their own conference mate, is SEVEN games better. That is pretty telling. It’s a tough pill since Temple beat USF and the Owls have a shot to win the AAC but right now they are out.
That leaves my three locks (Iowa, Pitt, Stanford) and Boise, Nebraska, USF fighting over the two final spots to get in. I’m inclined to boot Nebraska despite being a Big Ten blogger. They have the worst opponent’s W-L in wins of the final three and have two horrendous losses. I listed Iowa as their worst loss since Tommy Armstrong played throughout but they also lost by 59 to Ohio State. That’s even worse than what Tulsa did. Nebraska racked up wins against lesser foes but laid two massive eggs. Can’t ignore that.
Between Boise and USF, Boise played the tougher schedule per the numbers above so I will put them 24th and USF at 25. That leaves my previous three locks: Iowa, Pitt, and Stanford to determine their order. Pitt’s second best win, Penn State, crushed Iowa so the Panthers will be ahead of the Hawkeyes no matter the final order. When reviewing Stanford against just Iowa and Pitt I noticed that Stanford has just two wins over teams .500 or better, that is well behind Iowa (4) and Pitt (3). That puts Stanford at 23rd and the rest shakes out.
Final Verdict:
21. Pittsburgh
22. Iowa
23. Stanford
24. Boise State
25. USF
League Breakdown:
5 – ACC, Big Ten
4 – Pac 12, SEC
3 – Big 12
2 – American
1 – MAC, Mountain West
Big Ten and Counting 