Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you but the fans at Washington have a good bone to pick. On a day where Clemson, Michigan, and UW lost – the Huskies fell the farthest despite losing to the best team. East coast bias, much? Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (61) – I was curious if that season long first place Michigan voter would go somewhere else. That was the only drama for the Tide’s weekend.
- Ohio State
- Louisville
- Michigan
- Clemson – But, but, we beat UL! The problem was it was October 2nd and not by enough to overcome losing at home to Pitt as their most recent impression.
- Wisconsin
- Washington – If these two teams meet in the Rose Bowl is there a more early 1990s feeling game?
- Oklahoma
- Penn State
- West Virginia
- Utah – I’m wondering how much of their 2 spot bounce was about a fourth quarter explosion to look like they crushed Arizona State or the fact that they beat USC?
- Colorado
- Oklahoma State – Is a one point win (45-44) over Texas Tech at home thanks to a missed point after to tie really worth a four spot jump?
- Western Michigan
- USC
- LSU
- Florida State
- Auburn – 10 spot fall? Wow, guess the voters were never believers.
- Nebraska
- Washington State
- Florida
- Boise State
- Texas A&M – In their defense they waited until 6-0 to collapse unlike their usual 5-0 before tanking on the season.
- San Diego State
- Troy – TOLD YA!!!
My Top 25:
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Louisville – Okay, so if Clemson rights the ship and wins the ACC should that prevent Louisville from making the tournament? My gut feeling is that UL lost to Clemson and CU would have that edge AND the league title. I would probably flip those teams again. But in that situation, UL could still make the tournament? Think about Duke and North Carolina basketball. How many times has both been a #1 seed with one not winning the league? Think of the CFB as the four #1 seeds if the tournament was bigger. Can two teams be one-seeds from the same league in hoops? Of course. CFB should be no different.
- Washington – I had the Huskies ahead of Clemson a week ago and they lost to the best team of the weekend among the top teams. Plus it was really their first battle (outside the Utah game which Washington felt better than the whole way) but Clemson has had some really close games and Michigan had the narrow win over Wisconsin, too.
- Michigan
- Clemson
- Wisconsin – Why didn’t I have the Badgers jump UM, Clem, or UW? First Wisconsin has a worse record than all of them and in UM’s case a head-to-head loss. Second, until the game against Illinois we hadn’t really seen them show much offensive potential. If UW wins out putting up 30+ then I’ll gladly give them a push…even to the playoffs maybe.
- Florida State
- West Virginia
- Western Michigan
- Penn State
- Auburn – I’m still really high on this team. They gave up zero offensive touchdowns. They had an awful day on offense, fine, but don’t say the defense isn’t still amazing.
- Colorado – Why did I only move the Buffs one spot? Well they are still a 2 loss team and the last two teams they beat are a combined 6-14 (2-12). If they beat Washington State next, Buffs will see a climb. Plus they are in better shape than FSU and Auburn since they can still win a league division.
- Florida
- LSU
- Troy
- Nebraska
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State – What gives, why am I so low on this state’s football? Simple, the Sooners and Pokes have just TWO wins over teams with winning records. The Big 12 is pathetic this year outside of WVU barely treading water. Okie State knocked WVU off but also have a loss to free-falling Baylor. Oklahoma hasn’t even played the Mountaineers yet. Unless you care about beating teams like Iowa State and Texas Tech, I don’t see how you can love either of these teams.
- Utah
- Boise State
- Washington State
- -25 SEE BELOW – Final Verdict
See Below, what the hell is that?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
I love the AAC on the field but HATE it when it comes to my poll because there are so many teams with common opponents and good arguments. The last two weeks I’ve actually had Tulsa go the farthest but they just lost to Navy, their third defeat on the season, so now I’m back to square one. In the East USF and Temple have the best arguments. Out West we got Navy and Houston.
USF is tied with Houston at the best overall record with an 8-2 mark but has a loss to Temple. The fact that their two losses have been lopsided also hurts. For the Owls they have a tough loss to Penn State but their other two defeats, Army and Memphis, aren’t all that hot.
Houston has that record as well as a win over Oklahoma but their loss to Navy in addition to a blowout loss to 5-5 SMU hurts mighty. Additionally, their two wins since that SMU game are against an okay UCF team (6-4, 4-2) and terrible Tulane (3-7, 0-5). Neither really helps show that the Cougars are “back.” Navy meanwhile has the defeated Houston but lost to up-and-down Air Force and coming full circle has a loss to USF. Throw in the fact that they have a postponed game meaning they are just 7-2 with a FCS opponent also dings them.
So…who do I have? I’m going to go with Navy despite the concerns I laid out. Why? First they have the win over Houston – I can’t stress how big that is. Second their win over Tulsa, a 7 win club, is quietly very impressive. They also beat Memphis who isn’t as good as last year but still 6-4 and the Tigers were good enough to beat Temple. Lastly the way they defeated Notre Dame a week ago by having their last two drives be 9 minutes and 7:28 to run out the clock was extremely impressive.
AAC Nominee: Navy
Atlantic Coast Conference
I had both the Heels and Hokies ranked a week ago so they automatically get another look. To me this one is pretty simple, VT has skated by several opponents this year and has the big loss to Syracuse. UNC’s losses have been a good Georgia team and their arch rival. Now, I know the head-to-head goes VT’s way. BUT, that was the crazy hurricane game which wasn’t a best example of these two team’s ability. Lastly, and most importantly, I still have FSU as a top-10 team. Guess who beat them? UNC.
ACC Nominee: North Carolina
Big Ten
Ah yes, this league has an interesting claim. Minnesota is the best kept 7-win secret but just lost a nail-biter to Nebraska. Iowa is suddenly looking up at 6-4 but just knocked off Michigan. Problem is UM has zero wins over teams with an above .500 record at this point. None. Zilch. Nada. As for the Hawks, they would be the only team ranked with four losses. Now, if their losses were OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, and Alabama to go along with that Michigan win, you might have an argument. In reality their losses are North Dakota State (FCS), Northwestern (5-5), Wisconsin, and Penn State. Worse, three of those losses were at home. That’s not the resume of a ranked club.
Big Ten Nominee: No One
Conference USA
First time in a while I’ve brought up a C-USA resume but Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech are putting some seasons together. Hilltoppers and Bulldogs are a matching 8-3 (6-1). Both teams held their own against SEC teams but Tech has the head-to-head win. WKU can counter with wins over Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion. The young ODU program is 7-3 on the season and 5-1 in C-USA. Those wins won’t advance WKU but I wanted to give some love to the Monarchs who are having a great season.
C-USA Nominee: Louisiana Tech
Mid American Conference
A pair of teams from Ohio are continuing to play great football. Ohio is 7-3 (5-1) and with their tiebreaker over Miami (OH) looks like a lock to represent the East. Toledo is 8-2 (5-1) and the only threat left for Western Michigan’s path to the MAC title game. Just one problem on who deserves to be ranked, Ohio has a head-to-head win over the Rockets. That would give the Bobcats a lot of ammunition but Toledo knocked off 6-4 Eastern Michigan (Ohio lost to them) and they beat Arkansas State who is now 5-0 in the Sun Belt (and are defending Belt champs). Rockets get the nod…barely.
MAC Nominee: Toledo
Mountain West Conference
Good lord this league is just like the American, so many solid clubs to look at. Let’s start in the Mountain division. Wyoming, New Mexico, and Air Force are all 7-3. Air Force is the shakiest though with a 3-3 league mark. Worse for the purposes of this poll, they have losses to both the Cowboys and Lobos. They’re out.
Wyoming and New Mexico have identical 7-3 (5-1) marks but Wyoming’s hot play cooled a little bit last Saturday with a multiple overtime loss to UNLV. On the other hand, Wyoming beat division juggernaut Boise State. For the Lobos they started the year 2-3 with losses to Boise (understandable), New Mexico State (okay, a rivalry game), and Rutgers (I don’t know man, you got me) but now they have ripped off five straight.
In the other division, the Aztecs are 9-1 (6-0) and have won six straight since that gaffe at South Alabama. I really like Wyoming’s resume with that Boise win but since they lost most recently of all these teams (and to 4-6 UNLV), I’m going with SDSU. At some point they have to make up for that USA loss and their winning streak is now almost as long as the total wins Air Force, New Mexico, and Wyoming have.
Mountain West Nominee: San Diego State
Pacific 12 Conference
Oh man a classic head-to-head versus resume showdown. USC and Stanford boast identical 7-3 records overall and the Trojans have the wins over ranked Washington and Colorado but the Cardinal have the victory over the men of Troy. While both should be applauded for turning their seasons around the fact is the last three games Stanford has taken out the trash against Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon. USC has a winning streak twice as long at six games in their stretch they have the wins over those two ranked clubs. Going with resume over head to head in this case.
Pac 12 Nominee: USC
Southeastern Conference
By being ranked a week ago Texas A&M gets to be looked at again but also bringing in Tennessee for a hot minute. I realize UT lost to the Aggies so it looks like a lost cause but the Vols did just beat a vastly improved Kentucky team. I had Texas A&M ranked 10th a week ago so that would be quite the drop but I said let’s see if the sloppy play carried over and boy did it. They let a 5 loss Ole Miss team starting a freshman qb beat em. Not good. Still, really hard to ignore the head-to-head win between TAMU and UT, plus the Vols best win is Florida. Don’t forget that A&M did beat Auburn a ways back. That’s still an extremely solid win.
SEC Nominee: Texas A&M
Elimination Time
The above seven teams forms a master list trying to get the last three spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much?…USC is the only team not to play a FCS club in this group. Annoyingly no one has had a close call or a loss to get eliminated except it hurts Toledo’s strength of schedule and that matters in the MAC. Toledo’s FCS win takes them down to 7 wins without a power five victory but instead have wins over Fresno (fired coach), Bowing Green (2-8), and Northern Illinois (3-7). The same argument can be made for SDSU and Tech but SDSU has a power win and Tech’s win over WKU is better than any conference victory the Rockets have. As a result after getting national scrutiny, the Rockets are blasting on out of consideration. That was an awful pun.
Bad Game(s)…Comparing Tech’s C-USA strength of schedule against a national audience makes their 14 point loss to Texas Tech and 4 point loss to 6-4 Middle Tennessee stick out a bit. Skip Holtz has a solid team that can win their league, they just can’t get ranked this week.
Final Five
From seven down to five as I search to find the 23rd through 25th best team in America. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Navy
- BW: Houston
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Air Force (by 14)
- WL: at USF (by 7) – This might not make sense but they were actually being crushed by the Bulls until a few late scores made it look pretty.
- North Carolina
- BW: at Florida State
- WW: FCS
- BL: Georgia (by 9)
- WL: at Duke (by 1)
- SDSU
- BW: Cal
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at South Alabama (by 18)
- Texas A&M
- BW: Auburn
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Alabama (by 19)
- WL: at Mississippi State (by 7)
- USC
- BW: at Washington
- WW: at Arizona
- BL: at Utah (by 4)
- WL: Alabama (by 46)
First thoughts is this isn’t even close for USC. They have without a doubt the best win, they are the only team without a FCS win padding their mark, they are tied with SDSU with the longest winning streak but doing it against good teams and their second best win (Colorado) is better than Navy and SDSU’s best wins and is clearly the most impressive second best win compared to A&M (Tennessee) and UNC (Pitt). The Trojans are obviously my 23rd ranked team. Now, who is joining them?
I’m going to eliminate Navy. The Houston win isn’t quite as impressive as what A&M or UNC have. Plus SDSU has a much better record. Lastly with that postponed game against ECU, Navy has a one fewer game sample size meaning I need to look more in depth to see what their wins actually mean. Unfortunately they have victories over Tulane and UConn who are a combined 6-14 (1-12). I know all these teams have victories over bottom feeders in their league but remember, the AAC has less talent so their bottom feeders are that much weaker. Sorry Navy. I tried, and around Veteran’s Day, too!
Here’s my problem with comparing A&M and UNC’s seven wins versus SDSU’s nine. The Aztecs I know are good. They have Donnel Pumphrey who has 1779 yards. But they have ZERO wins over teams with winning records. Also their USA bugaboo is 1-5 in the Sun Belt, 4-5 overall. On the other hand SDSU is rolling teams and on a six game winning streak. That helps the old eye test mark. I decided to compare these teams with average margin of victory against FCS teams with losing records. It will give me a better idea of exactly how great the Aztecs are crushing these teams.
SDSU: Cal (5), @NIU (14), UNLV (19), @Fresno (14), SJSU (39), @Utah St (27), Hawaii (55), @Nevada (30)…203 over 8 games…25.4 avg margin of victory over sub .500 FCS teams
UNC: @Illinois (25), @Virginia (21)…46 over 2 games…23 avg margin
TAMU: UCLA (7), New Mexico State (42)…49 over 2 games…24.5 avg margin
Okay, so what did that tell us? Well, that SDSU is beating junk teams by more than the other two, but is it by enough? 1 point and 2.4 points doesn’t feel like enough to warrant ranking. If SDSU was routinely destroying teams by, say a 35 average margin of victory over losing FCS teams, that would be something. I love Rocky Long’s team and sure as hell wouldn’t want to play them but I just can’t say they are one of the 25 best teams in the country yet with the opponents they have faced. I do believe they have worked off the USA loss, now it is just a matter of staying hot and having other teams falter.
So, I know my last two teams in. But what order? I think it is fair to say that UNC’s losses are less worse than what Texas A&M has. As a result the Tar Heels will be ahead of the boys from College Station this week.
Final Verdict:
23. USC
24. North Carolina
25. Texas A&M
League Breakdown:
5 – Big Ten, Pac 12, SEC
4 – ACC
3 – Big 12
1 – MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt
Big Ten and Counting 