Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you but the fans at Virginia Tech have to be feeling good. Thanks to a 3 point win over Duke, they jumped up five spots because Nebraska and Florida fell 12 spots each, that’s how you get awarded for mediocrity. Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (60)
- Michigan (1) – Same number of votes as last week. I’m sorry, not a single mind was swayed just a little bit by Alabama struggling with LSU?
- Clemson
- Washington
- Louisville
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Auburn – Anyone else want to see Wisconsin and Vanderbilt play? It will be a race to four points!
- Oklahoma – Because when I think of top ten teams, I think of ten point wins against Iowa State.
- Texas A&M
- West Virginia
- Penn State
- Utah
- Western Michigan
- North Carolina
- Colorado – Good teams find ways to win when they play like junk. For all of UCLA’s injuries on offense, they still have one of the Pac 12’s best defenses. Gutty win for the Buffs.
- Oklahoma State
- Virginia Tech
- LSU
- Florida State – NC State is dominating the Moral Victories rankings right now.
- Nebraska
- Florida
- Washington State
- Boise State
- Baylor – In addition to the foolish Art Briles protest, Baylor also protested against playing good football yesterday.
My Top 25:
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Louisville – Awarding OSU for style points in absolutely obliterating Nebraska. What does that mean for Clemson and the Ville’s CFB chances? Nothing, really. Michigan and Ohio State will eliminate each other, most likely. Clemson will get another benchmark by winning the ACC title and Louisville’s loss was so early and by such a narrow margin that if they go 11-1, they can still slip in.
- Wisconsin
- Auburn – Vanderbilt has a really impressive defense. Plus with the game sandwiched between two road trips to traditionally difficult stadiums (Ole Miss and Georgia) it had a little bit of that trap vibe to it.
- Florida State
- Texas A&M – Giving the Aggies a bit of the benefit of the doubt. First their quarterback got hurt. Second, Mississippi State has quietly been not awful. Of their five losses, three were total toss ups decided by 12 points total. Also factor in A&M’s best defensive player didn’t even suit up due to injury, and you have a perfect storm for an upset. Let’s see how they look against Ole Miss before dropping the hammer.
- Western Michigan
- West Virginia – I’m surprised to have these two teams ranked this highly but let’s face it, they keep winning! Undefeated for the Broncos and one loss for the Mountaineers is the only statement they need to keep making.
- North Carolina
- Colorado
- Penn State
- Florida – Ugly loss, yes. But Arkansas isn’t exactly New Mexico State and Fayetteville isn’t exactly Las Cruces. Sorry New Mexico State, that was rude to bring you into this.
- LSU – Up three spots for a loss? Yup. When you play that well defensively against Alabama, I’ll start buying stock in ya.
- Troy – They won again so I’ll keep them at their same spot again this week. Next up, Sun Belt preseason favorite and 7-2 (5-0) defensive machine Appalachian State. Make or break date for the Trojans.
- Nebraska – People sometimes say that Alabama losses cost you two games because of how physical they are. I’m not going to put Wisconsin in that stratosphere but I do think the body blows in Madison may have impacted the Huskers a bit in the Shoe.
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Utah
- Virginia Tech
- Boise State
- SEE BELOW – Final Verdict
See Below, what the hell is that?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spot all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Last week I pointed out how the ACC just keeps beating up on each other so it is hard to take a clear cut team and advanced Houston, Navy, Temple, Tulsa, and USF to the next round. Well this week it is a little easier. Houston’s bad loss against SMU got even worse. The Mustangs lost to Memphis 51-7. Plus by being off, Houston couldn’t make any statement themselves.
Temple has won four straight and their three losses have been to teams with winning records and two were on the road. However the fact that they have three losses and wins over a FCS school and Charlotte really hurt them a week ago once I compared their resume nationally. No point in keeping them in the running again this week, despite them playing some solid football.
USF has the win over Navy and a nice 7-2 record but were big losers in those two defeats. Navy has the win over Houston but with a postponed date against ECU, they are just 6-2 with one of those wins coming against a FCS team. Like Temple, that hurt them nationally. As a result, Tulsa gets the nod. They made it all the way to my final elimination a week ago and as winners of three straight, all by 20+,
they are one of the hottest teams in the nation.
AAC Nominee: Tulsa
Mountain West Conference
I know, I know, a big gap from AAC to MW but remember, this is just to take one nomination from each league. Many of the conferences I skipped have either no one worthy (i.e. Independents) or only have one team I am even considering (i.e. Big 12), so that brings us to the other group of five league that has a bunch of talented teams but are just beating up on each other.
Wyoming backed up their huge Boise State win with a 24 point dismantling of Utah State. SDSU has won five straight since their uh-oh game at South Alabama. Their latest triumph was a 55-0 laugher over Hawai’i. Also worth noting is New Mexico may have started slow but they have ripped off four straight wins to get to 6-3 and are still in the mix for winning their division if they win out (but need Boise to lose again).
As much as I love the Cowboys story this year, the fact is they have two losses and one is to Eastern Michigan, a 5-4 team with two straight losses and a FCS win keeping them above .500. SDSU is the real deal.
Mountain West Nominee: San Diego State
Pacific 12 Conference
Will Baylor’s demise be the Pac 12’s gain? With Washington, Colorado, and Utah all safely in the poll, three teams all make their claim. USC has been red hot, going 5-0 since that tough loss at Utah. Included in their wins is Colorado. Stanford has course corrected a little bit with back-to-back victories to get to 6-3, the same record as USC. Oh by the way, the Cardinal also mollywhopped the Trojans early in the year, 27-10.
Then we have Washington State. They have ripped off seven straight to get to 7-2 and are undefeated in Pac 12 play with a legit shot at winning the North. They also boast a 26 point drubbing of Stanford. I think based on the other two having a worse record and WSU destroying one of their competitors for the poll the answer is clear.
Pac 12 Nominee: Washington State
Southeastern Conference
I’ve looked at several 6-3 clubs so it is only fair to let Tennessee and Arkansas show me what they got. For UT I see a 6-3 team that just beat a FCS club to get their sixth win. I see a team that lost to South Carolina. I see a team that straight by a combined 118-69. But I also see a team with wins over ranked Va Tech and Florida as well as wins over solid group of five teams App State and Ohio to go along with the miracle against Georgia.
Arkansas is similarly flawed. They have a FCS win. They have their losses by a combined 150-57 and have a win over a good group of five team in Louisiana Tech. Tennessee has a better resume than the Hogs, but I know it won’t hold up nationally so neither is getting a second look.
SEC Nominee: No One
Elimination Time
The above three teams join Appalachian State, Baylor, Minnesota, and Wake Forest (they’re baaaaack!) to form a list of seven teams trying to get the last spot in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much…Everyone but App State has played a FCS school. Everyone that has faced one won but Wazzu. Now that the obligatory insult is out of the way, Baylor is getting eliminated. Much like Navy they have a 6-2 mark but take out the FCS win it is just 5-2. Those five victories include three 1-8 teams: Iowa State, Kansas, and Rice. That’s…that’s not good.
Bad Game(s)…SDSU and Washington State jokes can be made here, too. I’m going to use this criteria to knock out Wake Forest and App State though. The Mountaineers lost by 35 at home to a middling Miami team. Love the heart of this program but they can’t honestly be ranked yet. Wake has losses to Army and NC State. Getting to a bowl is a huge step for this program and while I had them ranked at times earlier in the season, they haven’t overcome those losses yet. They have Louisville and Clemson coming up though, so maybe they will get back into the poll with a huge upset win.
Final Four
From seven down to four as I search to find the 25th best team in America. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Minnesota
- BW: at Maryland
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Penn State (by 3)
- WL: Iowa (by 7)
- SDSU
- BW: Cal
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at South Alabama (by 18)
- Tulsa
- BW: at Memphis
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Houston (by 7)
- WL: at Ohio State (by 45)
- Washington State
- BW: at Stanford
- WW: Arizona
- BL: at Boise State (by 3)
- WL: FCS (by 3)
The first thing that jumps out to me is SDSU’s best win is a Cal team that has now slipped to 4-5. They are the only team in this group that has their best win against a sub .500 club. That just wont cut it as the Aztecs continue to try and make up for a two touchdown loss at South Alabama. They are so close to getting back into the poll but it isn’t happening this week.
Tulsa also has the issue of lacking a power five win. They scheduled just one such opponent, Ohio State, and lost badly. The Golden Hurricanes are a great story and if they keep winning, they will get ranked but that resume just does not stack up against Minnesota’s or Wazzu’s and I think that is pretty apparent.
So, Minnesota and Wazzu – the Gophers did beat Oregon State by more than the Cougars did, so that’s something. Here’s the bottom line, State wins almost every metric above:
- Best Win: Maryland is a nice Big Ten team and will probably make a bowl at 6-6 once they beat Rutgers but they are just 5-4 right now. Washington State’s 26 point take down over 6-3 Stanford is more impressive.
- Worst Win: Admittedly a weird one with WSU dropping that game to Eastern Washington but destroying a conference member 69-7 is outrageous. UM’s worst win is a 4-6 FCS team. Even if Wazzu had done the conventional and taken down EWU, the Eagles are 8-1 and a way better FCS team than Indiana State. Advantage, Cougars.
- Best Loss: Minnesota gets back in the running. Losing in State College by 3 is less worse than losing at Boise State by 3. But let’s be honest. Boise and Penn State are both really good teams. Even if UM edges this criteria slightly, it makes up very little ground from the BW/WW points.
- Worst Loss: Iowa lost to North Dakota State. Guess who is the only team to beat EWU? North Dakota State. So basically, these losses were the same. Actually, that is being rude to EWU. Iowa is flat out terrible. Eastern Washington might win the FCS national title. Minnesota was held to 7 points against Iowa. WSU at least managed to put up 42 in their losing effort. Yes, a FCS loss here is less worse than a loss to Iowa.
By taking three of the four points of comparison, it isn’t even close. Washington State will be ranked.
Final Verdict:
- Washington State
League Breakdown:
5 – ACC, Big Ten, SEC
4 – Pac 12
3 – Big 12
1 – MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt
Big Ten and Counting 