For all intents and purposes, Saturday in Columbus is a tournament elimination game. Nebraska would still have a path to the Big Ten title game since it would only be their second loss and if Wisconsin lost again, NU would have fewer losses, but it is hard to see a two-loss Nebraska team having enough time to climb back into the thick of the CFB even if they won in Indianapolis. For Ohio State their second loss would be even more disastrous because their path to Indy would be all but extinguished. Around the rest of the league, the other 12 teams are in action across six league games. Wisconsin and Northwestern have a huge game in Evanston and if Iowa has any push to defend their Western chip, they will have to find it in State College against red hot Penn State. As always, these times are central.
Game of the Week:
Nebraska at Ohio State
As mentioned, the loser of this game is pretty much playing for pride the rest of the way as their national, and most likely league, title asperations are shot. For Nebraska injuries have sapped the offense of much of the bite we expected in the offseason but a resiliant effort combined with surprisingly salty defense has made them a tough out. For Ohio State they can’t seem to get out of their own way with sloppy offense nearly costing them against Wisconsin and Northwestern. At Penn State the sloppy offense was joined by horrid special teams to cause the loss. If they don’t mind their ps and qs, Nebraska is capable of knocking them off.
- Saturday, 7pm, ABC
Sleeper:
Northwestern vs Wisconsin
So the Western race is a delightful hot mess right now. Minnesota and Nebraska have the clearest path: win-out and in. Wisconsin has the next clearest: win-out and have Nebraska lose just once. Northwestern though has some left to say. If they win out and Nebraska loses twice – which is honestly possible with how crazy this season has gone – the Cats win the west. Yup, at 4-4 but most importantly 3-2, Northwestern is very much in the thick of this race. They’ve gotten here with a rejuvenated offense attack thanks to the huge leap in play by quarterback Clayton Thorson and his favorite target Austin Carr taking a ton of pressure off a solid running back in Justin Jackson. For Wisconsin they have the defensive chops to win this game, but after an emotional overtime victory, playing an 11am game in Evanston against a solid Northwestern team isn’t the easiest ask for 18-22 year olds.
- Saturday, 11am, ABC
Don’t Forget:
Iowa at Penn State
Speaking about the West being a mess doesn’t do justice to the East. Thanks to their win over Ohio State, Penn State has a shot to make Indy if Michigan can drop a game or two (tiebreakers if UM, OSU, and PSU all go 8-1 is insanely long). With all their tough games behind them and riding a four game win streak, PSU has a legit shot at ending on a eight game streak, going 10-2 and playing in a great bowl game. Not a bad consolation if they end just shy of Indy. For Iowa they have a slim path to Indy, too. They need Wisconsin to lose once more and then Iowa has to win out. Yikes. Not an easy proposition with PSU and Michigan over the next two weeks but Iowa did play a little better their last two games. This one looks like a tall order, though. Trace McSorely is a scary duel threat quarterback, the exact type of player that has given Iowa fits for years.
- Saturday, 6:30pm, BTN
Snoozer:
Illinois vs Michigan State
Each team is 2-6 so the loser is out of bowl consideration. The winner’s bowl hopes don’t really get much better. MSU has yet to play Ohio State or Penn State. Illinois still has road trips to Wisconsin, Northwestern, and a home date with Iowa.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPNN…or you could be watching that awesome Wisconsin-Northwestern game like a normal person.
Upset Watch:
Sadly now that we’re in league play there is no real easy way to make the distinction between being on the right end or wrong end of an upset. That’s always a fun feature of the non-conference but now that we’re in league any upset is potentially season crippling or season defining.
Right and Wrong end:
I feel like I have hyped the Nebraska – OSU and Northwestern – Wisconsin games enough so I’m taking one off the bored here. As I laid out, Minnesota is still very much alive for making a trip to Indianapolis. By not having faced Nebraska or Wisconsin yet, the Gophers have been able to pick up wins against some of the lower competition thus far but they have played down to their competition. This week they host a Purdue team that has already fired their coach but at 3-5 they have had some feisty moments. Just last week they were tied with Penn State at the half. If Minnesota continues to be lackadaisical they could drop one of their lead-up games to their huge final run and that would be the perfect definition of a wrong end upset.
- Minnesota vs Purdue, Saturday, 2:30pm, BTN
Elsewhere (Alphabetical Order):
Indiana at Rutgers – Indiana’s bowl hopes took a big step forward by dropping Maryland last week. They have two easy games left. This week against Rutgers and in the finale against Purdue. Barring an upset in the two games sandwiched between the cupcakes, Indiana must win those two easier games. Look for that potent rushing game to get going against the Scarlet Knights.
- Saturday, 11am, BTN
Maryland at Michigan – Maryland is coming in healthier, especially at quarterback than they have been the last few weeks but traveling to the Big House does not bode well for the Terps. They are improved but still well behind the Wolverines in too many aspects, especially if Maryland thinks they can run on this team like they have against (almost) everyone else this year.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, ESPN
Western Michigan at Kent State – Another MACtion Tuesday night game so it technically is WMU’s week 11 game but I don’t care. Kent State is 3-6 which includes a 1-1 mark against FCS teams, yup, they played two but they are coming off their biggest win of the year against Central Michigan. Still, the Flashes don’t look too have enough scoring punch to keep up with the extremely balanced Broncos.
- Tuesday, 6:30pm, ESPN2 / ESPN3
Random Musing
The Northwestern-Wisconsin series has been nuts. Wisconsin leads 57-35-5 but from 1890 to 1921, Wisconsin raced out to a 14-1-4 lead. Outside another long UW run from 1972-1984 (aka the darkest days of Northwestern football) where the Badgers won 13 straight this series has been super tight. In fact, since 1985-present, Northwestern holds a 13-12 advantage and is riding a two game winning streak into this year’s tango. A lot of fans feel NU is a thorn in their side but Wisconsin may have felt it more than other teams as the Cats continue to hound the Badgers. Pulling the upset tomorrow would basically be Northwestern going full blown Northwestern. Badger fans are taking deep breaths.
Big Ten and Counting 