Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you but the fans at LSU, UNC, and Colorado have to love the feeling of having an off week and jumping in rank by 4, 3, and 2 spots respectively. Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.
Real AP Poll:
- Alabama (60) – Fittingly the only team to not have their rank jump after a bye week.
- Michigan (1)
- Clemson
- Washington
- Louisville
- Ohio State
- Texas A&M
- Wisconsin
- Nebraska
- Florida – With this team’s defense, is this actually the best one loss team in the nation? Between ranked LSU and FSU to end the season and the more and more likely SEC title game tilt, Gators have a great shot at three statement wins to end the year. Don’t count ’em out!
- Auburn
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- West Virginia
- LSU
- Utah – They jumped one spot with a loss. I agree. They went toe to toe with Washington. Fantastic game, yet, in a weekend of AWESOME football, it might not have even cracked the top 5. Wisconsin, Clemson, Wyoming, Ohio State, Texas, and Louisville games were also super exciting. And it was Halloween weekend. This was my favorite Saturday of the year so far, easily.
- Western Michigan – Technically speaking per the schedule, Saturday was a bye week. WMU plays that funky Tuesday MAC game starting this week, but it is credited as their week 11 match-up.
- North Carolina
- Florida State – Falling seven spots feels really steep for losing to the third ranked team in the nation by just 3 points.
- Penn State
- Colorado
- Oklahoma State
- Virginia Tech – I don’t mind being proven wrong, and I can safely say Tech proved me wrong with a gutty win at Pitt.
- Boise State
- Washington State
My Top 25:
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Washington
- Clemson
- Louisville
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin – 3 through 7 all won but each of their wins were so tight that there was no way to flip anything around based on the eye test.
- Texas A&M
- Nebraska – That’s right, I didn’t even move them. NU lost in overtime, on the road, to a team ranked above them. No reason to let the floor bottom out, especially if they upset Ohio State next week. Won’t that look silly to go like 9 to 15 to 6? Just let this good Huskers team stand pat.
- Auburn – My hesitation last week when ranking AU 15th was I hadn’t seen Auburn have a real road game yet. Well they took on an Ole Miss team in Oxford who had their season on the brink. AU dominated them, especially in the second half, holding that potent Rebel offense to just 7 points after the break.
- Florida
- Florida State
- Western Michigan
- West Virginia
- Baylor – Dropped and flipped WVU and Baylor. Why? Well, Okie State is a team that I actually think has potential. Texas is going to fire their coach and has one of the worst defenses in the nation. So which loss is worse? Answer, Baylor’s.
- North Carolina
- Colorado
- Troy – I hate moving teams a ton on bye weeks but so many teams lost (and in Tennessee’s case lost to weak competition) that UNC, Colorado, and Troy all benefit.
- Penn State
- LSU
- Oklahoma – Kept this trio of teams ranked in the same order as last week, just higher because they all had off weeks…sort of. LSU was actually off. PSU played Purdue and Oklahoma played Kansas.
- -25. SEE BELOW – Final Verdict
See Below, what the hell is that?
This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spots all willy nilly. I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly. Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with. On rare exceptions, I’ll take more than one team but for the most part, I really try and weed out within leagues first. Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a .500 Sun Belt team would qualify or a lopsided loss would count as a bad game). After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.
American Athletic Conference
Oh boy, the AAC is a league of killer whales. They keep eating their own. In the East Temple and USF are both 4-1. Bulls have the better record and just knocked off Navy. Of course in the cloudy nature, Temple has the head-to-head over USF. In the West, Navy, Tulsa, and Houston all have decent cases for being ranked. Houston has the Oklahoma win in their back pocket but has gone 2-2 in their last four and looked listless in the two wins. Tulsa’s two losses are at OSU and at Houston, so no shame in that, right? But if we are going to applaud Tulsa for battling Houston tight, then that circles back to Navy, who beat Houston, and of course USF who just beat Navy…then Temple would chime in. AAAARGH. Since looking just within the league does absolutely nothing, I am going to violate a rule and simply advance ALL of them so they get a more national look. Silly AAC.
AAC Nominee: Houston, Navy, Temple, Tulsa, USF
Atlantic Coast Conference
I had Wake ranked a week ago so they automatically they get a look but this one is simple. They have gone 0-2 the last two weeks and dropped a game to Army. Virginia Tech has gone 2-0 the last two and beat both Miami and Pitt, teams that will be bowling by the end of the year.
ACC Nominee: Virginia Tech
Big 12
With Oklahoma now solidly ranked, the Big 12 profile looks to expand and there are two candidates. The weaker of the two is Kansas State. They played WVU tough, have won 3 of 4 and are 5-3 with a really, really good defense. Oklahoma State is 6-2 and has ripped off four straight, including the win over West Virginia. I’m giving the nod to the Pokes but it is some what interesting that both of these teams struggled with Iowa State in 5 and 7 point victories. Cyclone rebuild is going nicely, I think.
Big 12 Nominee: Oklahoma State
Big Ten
Just like the Big 12, with Penn State safely in, the league can expand its profile with another team ranked. Maryland, Minnesota, and Iowa have the best records but Northwestern may be playing the best football. The problem for Maryland is timing, their three losses are all recent in a 1-3 downturn. Northwestern also has a quantity issue. While the last four weeks have been vastly improved, they are still a four loss team after the battle in Columbus. That leaves Iowa and Minnesota. Hawks have the head-to-head tie breaker but never in a million years are they worthy of being ranked.
Big Ten Nominee: No one
Mountain West Conference
So much like the American, the Mountain is a mess. Wyoming is 6-2 (4-0) and just upset Boise State. The Broncos are 7-1 (3-1) but has the best non conference win in the league: Washington State. SDSU has righted the ship and moved to 7-1 (4-0) and drubbed their last two teams 82-16. So with no clear cut favorite, I’m going to pull my AAC card and let all three hang around some more.
Mountain West Nominee: Boise State, San Diego State, and Wyoming
Pacific 12 Conference
Washington State and Utah both have worthy arguments. WSU though has lost to a FCS team and Boise State. In their six game winning streak they have beaten just one team above .500: Arizona State. With the way Utah looked against the Huskies, I have to keep them in the running.
Pac 12 Nominee: Utah
Southeastern Conference
Tennessee was ranked a week ago but has now dropped three straight. Kentucky is the identical 5-3 mark of UT but has won three straight and is above .500 in league play, unlike the Vols. I’ll reward the improved Cats and keep them around.
SEC Nominee: Kentucky
Elimination Time
The above twelve teams join plucky Appalachian State to form a monster list of 13 teams trying to get one of the last four spots in my poll. The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.
FCS Much…When stacked up with national competition, a couple AAC teams get bounced. Temple’s 6-3 mark becomes 5-3 without the FCS win. Those three losses are the most of any team I’m considering. For Navy, their 5-2 mark becomes 4-2 without the FCS win, that is the fewest win total of any team I’m considering.
Bad Game(s)…Another AAC team takes a hit as USF has a 16 point loss to Temple and a 20 point loss to FSU, bye Bulls! Houston follows suit as a 22 point loss to SMU won’t cut it. Hasta luego, Houston! I was optimistic about Kentucky but their loss to Southern Miss combined with two lopsided SEC losses can’t be undone by five wins over .500 or less teams. Catch ya later, Cats! Sadly for App State whenever I look at their resume, that 35 point loss to Miami sticks out. It gets worse with each week that Miami loses, too. Adios, Appalachian State!
Final Seven
More than I try to keep around at this point but I started with more than usual, too. For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.
- Boise State
- BW: Washington State
- WW: Louisiana Lafayette
- BL: at Wyoming (by 2)
- WL: N/A
- Oklahoma State
- BW: West Virginia
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Baylor (by 11)
- WL: Central Michigan (by 3)
- SDSU
- BW: Cal
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: at South Alabama (by 18)
- Tulsa
- BW: at Memphis
- WW: FCS
- BL: at Houston (by 7)
- WL: at Ohio State (by 45)
- Utah
- BW: USC
- WW: FCS
- BL: Washington (by 7)
- WL: at Cal (by 5)
- Virginia Tech
- BW: at Pitt
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: TIE Tennessee (by 21) and at Syracuse (by 14)
- Wyoming
- BW: Boise State
- WW: FCS
- BL: N/A
- WL: TIE at Nebraska (by 35) and at Eastern Michigan (by 3)
The first thing that jumped out was Tulsa’s weakness in the best win category. Everyone else has beaten a power five school outside Wyoming, who beat a highly ranked Boise team. SDSU is out for what plagued Utah lately. They have done a lot to get rid of that South Alabama game, making it to this stage in my poll process reflects that, but they don’t have a good win or an eye test game to show that they belong. Beating Cal doesn’t cut it.
I love what Craig Bohl has done at Wyoming but the Cowboys aren’t quite there yet. Their Nebraska loss stands out as the biggest margin of defeat once Tulsa was eliminated. Additionally, EMU is improved but they are just 5-4 and are coming off a loss to a really bad Miami (OH) team. In the past, I’ve joked that ranked teams shouldn’t be ranked if they have a loss to a FCS teams. While that idea is mostly all fun and games, it is sort of true that if you have a bad loss you need to do a ton of work to make up for it. Wyoming has to do double duty to make up for a blowout and a loss to a team that ranked teams shouldn’t lose to.
That gives my my final four where I am going to employ the eye test. Okie State dominated a previously undefeated West Virginia team. They really look the part and if you consider the controversy at the CMU team, have a credible argument to say they should actually be 7-1 and not even sweating bullets at the bottom of my poll. I don’t agree with it, but I’m a logical and rational adult so I can see the merit in that argument. They’ll get the top spot.
Utah’s eye test also went very well this week. I thought, based on their awful opponents’ w-l record, that Washington would cream them. Nope. Utah has a good team and now that I actually saw it, I’ll reward them accordingly.
That leaves Boise and Virginia Tech. Eye test is tricky here because VT’s best win came in such an awful hurricane condition that I sort of set it off to the side. Worse, that Syracuse game is really difficult to explain. Boise though has been slipping. Before the Wyoming loss they had a five point game against Colorado State and a one point win against BYU, both of those teams are 4-4. Based on this downturn, I have to put the Hokies ahead of the Broncos.
Final Verdict:
22. Oklahoma State
23. Utah
24. Virginia Tech
25. Boise State
League Breakdown:
5 – ACC, Big Ten, SEC
4 – Big 12
3 – Pac 12
1 – MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt
Big Ten and Counting 