Grades, top 25, preview, and gambling all on a Friday? What gives. Well, I had a busy week in the real world and usually the blog is the first thing to take a back seat. Anyway, in the preview for last Saturday, I talked about how this week felt like a calm before something big happens. The games played out that way. From a 78-0 shelling to a lackluster 14-7 Floyd of Rosedale game last week taught us very little…outside MSU has real issues and Maryland isn’t quite ready for that close up.
Team of the Week – Penn State – A – A lot to like here, starting with the offense clicking! Two weeks ago this club couldn’t do anything against Michigan. A week ago they were very herky jerky in an overtime win against free falling Minnesota. But this past week, they were sharp. Trace McSorley threw for 152 yards and 2 scores while rushing for 81 and another score to continue his crisp play but he wasn’t the star. No, that came from running back Saquon Barkley who racked up 202 yards and a score.
Defensively this team also played much better. I’m not quite ready to declare this side of the ball fixed because Maryland’s starting quarterback Perry Hills left with an injury and was 5/7 for 72 with a score and a pick at that point. Still, even with that consideration, this unit looked a pinch better.
Illinois – B – The Fighting Illini carried over a lot of good that they did a week ago at Nebraska into their game with Purdue but it wasn’t quite enough. Focusing on the good, UI put up 499 yards, 315 on the ground with a gaudy 6.8 average. They may have also found a quarterback to build around. I was high on Wes Lunt in the off season but the veteran just isn’t clicking with this new staff’s philosophy. After Lunt got hurt, sophomore Chayce Crouch came in and lit it up. He had 142 passing yards on 10/14 throwing and racked up 137 rushing yards on 17 carries with two scores. Now the bad, 439 yards allowed, awful on third down, and a whopping 125 penalty yards on 12 flags. Yeesh!
Indiana – B- – Getting a B- in a 21 point loss might be surprising and I know nearly knocking off the Bucks last year might look like a step back for Indiana but I don’t see it that way. First of all, this OSU team is way better than last year’s. Second, this game was in Columbus. Lastly, Indiana is down several big pieces from last year’s offense. So why am I excited? Because of the defense.
Kevin Wilson is an offensive guru and IU’s offense is still pretty good this year but his teams have rarely shown any defensive bite. That has changed this year and continued against OSU. They held the bucks to 5/14 on third, 93 passing yards, forced six punts and had two takeaways. One of the Buckeye touchdowns came on a six yard drive after a 91 yard kick return and another was a nine yard drive after a Hoosier fumble so in my mind, the IU defense really only gave up 24 of those 38 points. That is phenomenal when you look at how OSU has scored at will against everybody.
Were the Hoosiers beat? Yup. Were they sloppy? You betcha. Did they miss some opportunities? Sure. But they fought like hell and the culture has clearly changed. So damn straight they deserve a B- for a 21 point loss.
Iowa – B – Iowa was better on third down, fourth down, had more yards, had a higher completion percentage, rushed for more yards, had a higher yards per rushing attempt, had fewer penalties, and won. Clearly they were the better team than Minnesota. So why was it only 14-7? Well first, Iowa had two drives stall in the red zone and settled for three points each time. Iowa also missed a long field goal try. Secondly, Iowa had three turnovers. The good thing is the experiment on the OL paid off…mostly. Iowa re-positioned three starters to different roles. The ground attack was much stronger with 179 yards on 41 carries – a serviceable 4.4 average. Akrum Wadley led the way with 107 yards and that beautiful 54 yard touchdown sprint to give Iowa a 12-7 lead before the two point conversation.
One thing to remind readers of is, at times Iowa has looked like the worst 4-2 team in the nation. Yet they are about five or six plays away from being an undefeated 6-0 ball club. If they can polish some things up, they can still be a factor. Now will they with this coaching staff? Feels doubtful. Greg Davis rarely puts this offense in a place to succeed…but despite the score not reflecting it, they thoroughly whipped the Gophers.
Maryland – C- – Tough to make a call after this one for projecting Maryland’s season forward. I thought the Terps were a 6-6 team but that 4-0 start was so impressive that I had them winning this one. Did losing at Penn State show UM was regressing towards the mean? Was it more a reflection at how important Perry Hills is after he got hurt? Was it just a rough day at the office for the defense? I think you can make an argument for all three…which is what makes the rest of the season so murky. If it is option one, we might see Maryland struggle a lot over the next few weeks. If it is option two or three, Maryland has a great shot to get back on track tomorrow when they host Minnesota.
Personally, when I break this game down and look at it, I think Maryland will be fine. They were down just 24-14 at half and Hills was putting together a solid game. RB Lorenzo Harrison was electric again. The running game still put up decent numbers (170 yards on 38 carries, 4.5 average). So with that in mind, until I see Maryland start stringing bad games together like they did last year, I don’t think losing at PSU is a regression to the mean. I think it is a reflection that road games in the Big Ten are really hard to win.
Michigan – A+ – Wow, I don’t know where to start with this one since the numbers were so lopsided. The score, 78-0, doesn’t really do it justice as the Michigan defense was out-freaking-standing. They held RU to 0/17 on third, 2 first downs (first one came in the 4th quarter), 5 passing yards, 34 rushing yards, and forced 16 punts. The offense had 600 yards, 481 on the ground, and an 8.6 average.
Michigan State – F – The offense is in a word, terrible. The running game produced just 85 yards on a 2.7 average and that was bolstered by back up QB Damion Terry going for 29 on 8 carries to be the second leading rusher once he came in for Tyler O’Connor. Adding to the misery O’Connor wasn’t hurt, he just got hooked. This is a bad time of year for a quarterback controversy. It is easy to place a lot of the blame on O’Connor’s play but a ton goes into the passing game. The line isn’t playing as well as last year and the dynamic receivers of 2015 are gone so the targets aren’t as reliable. All of this could be masked over with an outstanding defense but injuries have hurt the front seven and BYU took advantage with 260 yards, 163 alone by the outstanding Jamaal Williams. That ain’t a good sign for some of the future opponents MSU has left.
Minnesota – D- – The lack of urgency by this team was alarming and a lot of that falls on the coaching. They rarely put their team in a place to succeed offensively and it showed with just 3 completed passes and an interception in the first half. All of those stats came on the final UM drive of the first half as well, meaning zero offensive rhythm was found in the first two quarters. The ground and pound attack was also flailing with just 102 carries on 29 attempts (3.5 avg). Oh, the penalty issues STILL exist as the Gophers were flagged 8 more times for 58 yards. Last but not least, those three turnovers Iowa had went for naught as UM had three giveaways themselves, yikes. So why not the F? Well, the defense did bend but not break forcing three field goal tries and just six red zone points.
One observation…I realize one of new coach Tracy Claey’s first maneuvers last year after getting the contract was to make a change at OC but it isn’t paying off for some reason. Jay Johnson was a solid OC down at Louisiana Lafayette with Terrance Broadway zipping the ball around an average of 2520 yards each year and rushing for 617 each year. So why isn’t it working? Well, Mitch Leidner isn’t very accurate with his passing. The OL isn’t outstanding. The WRs are dropping passes. But the biggest is the conservative play calling. It is almost like Johnson was told or decided not to call very many QB rushes because Leidner’s rushing is way down.
This year he is rushing an average of 8 times a game. Last year he was at 8.3 with a greater sample size. In UM wins last year he rushed 9.3 times a game. In 2014, when UM was 8-5 (5-3) Leidner rushed for his most yards, carries, and scores. He had an average of 10.5 rushes per game for the season and in Bin Ten wins was all the way up to 11.2 carries a game. Long story short, let this man run the damn ball!!!
Nebraska – Idle
Northwestern – Idle
Ohio State – B – It is hard to be up for every opponent and I think some of that might have crept in this week against an Indiana team that OSU hosted a week before traveling to Madison so I’m not going to panic over a sloppy performance. What was sloppy? The passing game (9/21, 93 yards), turnovers (2), penalties (9 for 83 yards), and third down execution (5/14) but teams have games like that. What good and great teams do though is find a way to win and rely on some aspect of their attack that is working. That’s what the Bucks did riding their rushing game (50 attempts, 290 yards, 5.8 average) to the victory. Special teams also came up big in a 91 yard return that set up a six yard TD drive.
Purdue – B+ – I highlighted a lot of stats in this game when I graded Illinois so I’ll just bring up three points. The first is Purdue was insanely balanced going for 228 passing yards and 231 rushing yards. The second is David Blough looks a lot better, especially when he has a rushing attack to soften up the coverage. The third is Purdue may have found their running back answer to keep that running game going in freshman Brian Lankford-Johnson. In for the banged up Markell Jones, BLJ had 127 on 18 carries with a score. Richie Worship, another freshman, also had his best day of his young career by far going for 60 yards on 13 for a score. Both these guys, but especially Lankford-Johnson, need to keep seeing playing time even when Jones comes back from injury in order to maintain a rotation of backs so there are fresh(er) legs on every PU rushing play.
Rutgers – Incomplete – Good teachers don’t fail students and it seems petty to knock RU when they are clearly down and rebuilding. This is not on Ash or these young players but on a program gutted by Kyle Flood. There is something I want to point out that was a positive and that is kick returner Justin Goodwin. He had 175 yards on 9 returns for a 19.4 avg and a long of 38. The senior New Jersey native has “worked his tail off” according to coaches and was a 2015 all academic Big Ten team member. I hope he houses a few kicks and ends his career in style with a big game on senior day against Penn State next month.
Western Michigan – A- – When you are the best team in your league and taking on a struggling foe one thing that can happen is you dominate in the first quarter to such a degree you lose a little edge the game turns into a ho-hum victory. That’s what happened to Western. After racing out to a 14-0 lead they took their foot off the gas and played Northern pretty even the rest of the game, winning 45-30. Highlights include Zach Terrell’s 18/23 for 327, 3 td, 0 int day as well as RB Jarvion Franklin racking up 169 yards 31 carries for a score.
Wisconsin – Idle
Game of the Week – I’ll admit at times Purdue and Illinois looked like a battle of two bad teams but for the most part this was a pretty efficient game offensively and the Illini battled back from a half time deficit to take a fourth quarter lead. Then Purdue managed to force overtime with a fourth quarter touchdown. Lastly once in OT, the Boilers pulled it out. Pretty fun game, all things considered.
Why Did I Watch This? Award – The 43-0 halftime lead for Michigan pretty much ended any reason to look in on the game. Although if I’m honest, I didn’t check in too much on the game even before the 29 point second quarter explosion.
Gambling Report Card:
- Illinois vs Purdue, UI (-10.5), Over (54)
Take a split here as Illinois lost but the total was 65 points. I know sometimes point totals are weird with overtime as most books count it but some don’t. In this case it didn’t matter though as the score was tied at 31 before OT.
- Indiana at Ohio State, Points (OSU -28), Over (59)
Another split as Indiana lost by three TDs (hey that was my prediction) but didn’t score as much as I thought they would in order to keep it within reason. The 38-17 final of course adds up to 55.
- Iowa at Minnesota, Points (UI -2)
Oops, but as a Hawkeye fan, I’ll gladly lose money every week if it means they keep winning. Who’s with me?!
- Maryland at Penn State, UM (-2.5)
I still think Maryland would have had a shot if Hills hadn’t gotten hurt. Sadly there is an expression that goes something like, “if ifs were buts and candies and nuts…”
- Michigan vs Rutgers, UM (-30), Over (53)
My suggestion that Michigan would “threaten the over” and putting out the score 52-3 looks pretty laughable right now after the 78-0 win. My explanation for the bets in this game may have been crap, but both were winners in a feel-good double up.
- Michigan State vs BYU, Points (MSU -5.5), Under (49)
All of BYU’s games were settled by 3 points or less until last Saturday when they won by 17. Despite the fourth quarter explosion of 21 points for the Cougars and 28 total between the two teams in the final frame, the scoring was still low enough for another double up as the two clubs combined for just 45. State of Michigan helping me this week!
- Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois, WMU (-20), Under (66)
And my hot streak with the state of Michigan – and Western for that matter – ends in a strange way. WMU won by just 15, damn. And the total points scored was 75, double damn!
Week Record: 6-6-0
Season Record: 42-48-1
Big Ten and Counting 