Indiana vs Michigan State
- Michigan State -6.5, Over/Under 52
I’m really gun shy about which MSU offense and which Indiana defense will show up so I am staying away from that over. Throwing all those picks has me worried about both quarterbacks, but Lj Scott and that MSU defense has me leaning towards the Spartans. They win in the 7 to 10 range, barely covering.
Illinois at Nebraska
- Nebraska -20, O/U 52.5
Illinois’s defense has given up 34 and 48 their last two times out. I think Nebraska’s offense is even more explosive than Western Michigan’s and North Carolina’s. Huskers cover and thanks to the 49 points they put up, the over it toast as well.
Iowa vs Northwestern
- Iowa -13.5, O/U 43.5
The last time Iowa was a two touchdown favorite they barely even scored two touchdowns against Rutgers. Northwestern is better than the Scarlet Knights. Maybe Iowa finds a way to get a win but I expect it to be another low scoring slop fest. I’ll give up the points and take the under. Plus, with Iowa’s leading receiver in Matt VandeBerg out, the already toothless Greg Davis offense just lost a massive piece.
Maryland vs Purdue
- Maryland -10, O/U 56.5
Purdue is coming off one of their best wins in a long time, holding a good Nevada rushing attack to just 68 rushing yards. While both look improved, Maryland has the added piece of being a more talented roster. Toss in the fact that the Terps have had two weeks to prepare for Purdue…I’ll give up those points, even though the Boilermakers do make this game much more intriguing after their strong game last week.
Michigan vs Wisconsin
- Michigan -11, O/U 44.5
How many injuries can Wisconsin sustain until the dam breaks? Michigan kicks a late field goal to go up 13 and the lead holds. Either that or Michigan is who we think they are and they obliterate the Badgers. Either way, I’ll go with the favorite.
Minnesota at Penn State
- Penn State -2, O/U 56
This one is easy. Penn State is banged up, horribly coached, and based on the lack of fight a week ago given up on the season. Gophers get a major road win. I think the final will be 35-24 or 28. Both of which go over.
Ohio State vs Rutgers
- Ohio State -38, O/U 60
That’s a big spread for a conference game and usually if something is in the 40s or near it, I’ll take the points but Rutgers just lost their best offensive and special teams weapon in Janarion Grant. I don’t see how Rutgers can score more than 10 points in this. That means just 42 by the Buckeyes puts them in good shape to cover. Let’s take the Bucks.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
- Western Michigan -3.5, O/U 57.5
Going to be some math on this one. Western has been giving up an average of 21. On the flip side, Central has given up an average of 25 per game. So lets say both defenses play to their averages, the final is 25-21, or 46 points. However…Central is a high scoring passing attack averaging 41 points a game. Meanwhile Western’s offense is even better with 43 points scored per. If the offenses go to form, that is 84 points scored. You know what happens if you take the average of those two data points, you get 65 points. That is way over!
Why did I just do that? Well that is a quick way to see what will happen if one team plays to the opposition’s defensive average and the other plays to their offensive average. For instance, Western winning 42-21 would be that outcome. WMU’s offense played to their average points while CMU is held to WMU’s defense average. Still confused? Drop me a line. Also, in a way taking the average compensates for factors like Central Michigan’s defense getting a statistical boost by holding a FCS school the three points and Western Michigan’s offense getting a statistical boost by putting 70 points on a FCS school. Okay, maybe I just confused my self.
Whew, moving on, that was exhausting. But I needed to show some method for my madness in taking the over on a relatively high over. Oh, as for the Broncos covering that spread…I believe they will, rivalry on the road and all.
Lightning Round for Non Readers:
Indiana/Michigan State – MSU
Illinois/Nebraska – NU, Over
Iowa/Northwestern – Points, Under
Maryland/Purdue – UM
Michigan/Wisconsin – UM
Minnesota/Penn State – Points, Over
Ohio State/Rutgers – OSU
Western Michigan/Central Michigan – WMU, Over
Big Ten and Counting 