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2016 Josh’s Week 5 Top 25

Oh the polls, how much I love to argue with you.  You know who is feeling pretty good, the SDSU Aztec fan base.  They jumped three spots by having the week off.  Insert sunglasses emoji on that one.  Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (50)
  2. Ohio State (4)
  3. Louisville (6)
  4. Michigan (1)
  5. Clemson
  6. Houston
  7. Stanford
  8. Wisconsin
  9. Texas A&M – Does this feel like a top 10 team?  I mean, Kevin Sumlin so….no?
  10. Washington
  11. Tennessee
  12. Florida State
  13. Baylor
  14. Miami
  15. Nebraska
  16. Ole Miss
  17. Michigan State
  18. Utah – Up six spots for barely beating a one win USC team at home, while conference mates Stanford was unmoved (late road win) and Washington dropped (OT road win) so that makes sense.
  19. San Diego State
  20. Arkansas
  21. TCU – Side note, but SMU’s all blue uniforms looked sharp!  Sort of reminded me of the mid 90s Buffalo Bills.  Meanwhile the final score reminded me of the mid 00s Bills.
  22. Texas – Yup, that Notre Dame win is holding up well.
  23. Florida
  24. Boise State – Pac 12 will probably make a rule like the Big Ten FCS rule and ban any members from playing the Broncos as they took down yet another (and second of the season) on Saturday.
  25. Georgia

My Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson – They won, so of course I’m not going to drop ’em.  Plus, those Thursday games in Atlanta can be a trap.
  3. Ohio State
  4. Louisville – I think they play a game I’ll be watching this week, but who are they playing again…?
  5. Michigan
  6. Sanford
  7. Tennessee – They remain unmoved in my poll yet higher than the AP after all those voters fled the ship.  I am the rock steady to their rocky top, or something.
  8. Washington
  9. Houston
  10. Wisconsin
  11. Texas A&M
  12. Florida State
  13. Baylor
  14. Miami
  15. TCU
  16. Nebraska
  17. Ole Miss
  18. Michigan State
  19. San Diego State
  20. Western Michigan
  21. Utah
  22. – 25. SEE BELOW – Final Verdict

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spots all willy nilly.  I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly.  Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with.  Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 3-0 win by a SEC school over a Sun Belt team would qualify).  After those first two criteria, I take the remaining teams and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

This league just won’t quit.  Just because USF had a rough one doesn’t mean there still aren’t quality teams behind Houston.  Navy and Memphis each moved to 3-0 on the young season.  Each has a FCS win but Navy is grinding out wins over UConn (by 4) and Tulane (7) while Memphis has outscored Kansas and Bowling Green 120-10 the last two weeks.  If we praise other teams for lopsided victories, might as well do the same with the Tigers.

AAC Nominee: Memphis

Atlantic Coast Conference

First of all, hats off to Duke for adding to Notre Dame’s misery.  That’s always fun.  Virginia Tech and North Carolina are a respectable 3-1 and Wake Forest is a hot 4-0.  Tech’s loss to Tennessee looks more understandable now and their 103 points combined the last two weeks is pretty sexy.  UNC’s Georgia loss looks less understandable now and their 30 points per allowed is pretty ugly.  Wake though has the better record, two road wins (UNC has one, Tech hasn’t left the state), and beat that Duke team that I just praised.  I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m considering ranking Wake Forest!

ACC Nominee: Wake Forest

Big 12

Because the real poll had Oklahoma ranked last week (yup) and still have Texas ranked this week (why are people still awarding that Notre Dame win that has lost all of its shine?) I gave them a hot second of consideration before going with undefeated West Virginia, who survived a neutral site tango with the nation’s best one-win team, BYU.

Big 12 Nominee: West Virginia

Big Ten

Maryland is 3-0 but hasn’t played anyone (one of their opponents, FIU, fired their coach Sunday) and Minnesota is 3-0 but haven’t left their home stadium and their two FBS wins (Oregon State and Colorado State) are ho-hum seven point victories.  Iowa backed that North Dakota State loss with an agonizing flat, pathetic, and shameful game at Rutgers.  So despite looking at these resumes, they all ended up in the trash.

Big Ten Nominee: No one

Mountain West Conference

Obviously Boise State is ranked in the real AP and their road win at Oregon State pushed them to 3-0 but I wanted to just glance at 3-0 Air Force to see their argument.  This one is pretty clear for the time being, Boise has two wins over Pac 12 foes and haven’t played a FCS club while Air Force has played a lower level club and yet to face a single power five team.

MW Nominee: Boise State

Pacific 12 Conference

Colorado’s win at Eugene was enough for me to give them a second pass even with undefeated Arizona State in the mix.  The problem for the Buffs at this point is not only ASU sitting at 4-0 but the Sun Devils have two power five wins and Colorado just as the one over Oregon.  I think the Buffs are knocking on the door but Sparky gets the nod this week.

Pac 12 Nominee: Arizona State

Southeastern Conference

With their shelling of Georgia, Ole Miss jumped back in leaving a trio of 3-1 teams: Florida, Georgia, and Arkansas.  Florida still has those weak wins (although Kentucky winning helped a pinch) and UGA has now had three bad weeks in a row.  That leaves Arkansas.  I know that fourth quarter was a tough pill to swallow but they still have that win over TCU and I never dropped the Frogs from my poll so you know the respect I have for that victory.

SEC Nominee: Arkansas

Elimination Time

The above six teams join Army and Toledo to form a final eight for the last four spots.  I am not considering North Dakota State right now because I did not consider them last week and they were idle so they are still 3-0.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Normally a reliable criteria comes up short here as everyone but Army, Boise State, and Arkansas have played a FCS school.  For full disclosure, both Army and Arkansas have a future FCS date.  Way to go Boise!  However someone has to get cut so that will be Toledo.  In addition to FCS Maine they have taken on an okay Arkansas State team and an atrocious Fresno State team.  Everyone else has either zero FCS opponents or a power five win.  Toledo is the only one with the mix of all group of five teams and a FCS to boot.

Bad Game(s)…Sorry Army, I had you ranked a week ago and really like your ball club but a 14 point fourth quarter lead that you give up to Buffalo before losing in overtime is not what ranked teams do.  Arizona State also misses the cut.  Their lackluster win at Texas San Antonio wasn’t impressive and giving up 96 points to Cal and Texas Tech in wins makes them look more and more Texas-ish.

Final Six

From a sizable list down to just Arkansas, Boise State, Memphis, Wake Forest, and West Virginia to pick the rankings 22 through 25.  For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Arkansas
    • BW: At TCU
    • WW: Louisiana Tech (by 1)
    • BL: Texas A&M
    • WL: N/A
  • Boise State
    • BW: At Oregon State
    • WW: Washington State
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Memphis
    • BW: Kansas
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Wake Forest
    • BW: TIE at Duke / at Indiana
    • WW: Tulane (7-3)
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • West Vrignia
    • BW: Missouri
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A

Memphis has been crushing teams but Kansas is a glaring hole.  They get knocked out leaving just the other four to sort out 22-25.  With that in mind, the Arkansas and Boise resumes are clearly better than the Mountaineers and Demon Deacons.

Between Wake and West Virginia, you have two teams with FCS foes but since Wake has a win even uglier than just playing a smaller program it hurts; however, West Virginia has two games at home and beat a hard luck BYU team in Maryland – not exactly neutral site.  Also winning two power five road games is way more impressive than taking on the Mizzou Tigers.  Wake will be 24th and WVU 25th.

As for Boise and Arkansas, Boise being undefeated is a strong argument but that TCU win is the single most impressive thing of all four of these teams.  I’ll make Arkansas my 22nd ranked team with Boise right behind as a result.

FINAL VERDICT:

22. Arkansas

23. Boise State

24. Wake Forest

25. West Virginia

League Breakdown:

5 – ACC, Big Ten, SEC

3 – Big 12, Pac 12

2 – Mountain West

1- American, MAC

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