2016 Week 3 Grades

A fascinating week of football as Ohio State and Michigan State were road warriors taking down Oklahoma and Notre Dame.  Not to be out done, Nebraska triumphed against a good Oregon team, Michigan rallied to knock off an improved Pac 12 Colorado squad, Northwestern got in the winner’s circle for the first time, and Penn State battled through a wave of injuries to fend off pesky Temple.  Those are just a few of the stories from the last week of non conference play (for most teams) as we head into league play.

Team of the Week – Nebraska – B+ – Sometimes being the team of the week is about who you face, what adversity you face, and what the win means for your program rather than putting together a flawless performance.  For Nebraska, their win over Oregon is the former.  They were trailing against a good Ducks team and rallied thanks to a solid third quarter to win.  For people still questioning Mike Riley, this game answered at least some of those questions.  As for the stats and all that, the offense was electric.

Tommy Armstrong Jr racked up 295 all purpose yards, 200 through the air, and worked through a series of cramps during the game.  Gutty performance.  The defense, which looked improved in the opening two games, came back to Earth a little bit.  They gave up almost 500 yards but considering their pass defense was awful last year, they did a nice job of limiting the big play.  The other nice aspect of the D on Saturday was forcing six UO punts.  The good news for Nebraska is outside their game against Ohio State in November, they won’t face an offense like that again in the regular season.

Illinois – F – Illinois’s leading rushers combined for 25 yards on 10 carries.  As a team the stats became 15 rushes for 3 yards.  Not.  Gonna.  Cut.  It.  On the flip side the Broncos had 287 yards on 54 carries, sparked by Jamauri Bogan’s 24 carries for a buck eighty-nine and two scores.

Indiana – Idle

Iowa – F – Iowa’s most electric player rushed the ball just four times.  Iowa’s most speedy receiver was target just once (it went for a 30 yard TD), the lines were dominated, and the team looked fatigued in the fourth.  These are bad signs made worse by the fact they played FCS North Dakota State.  I realize the Bison are 5-time defending champs at that level but they do have 20 fewer scholarships than Iowa so the lack of depth and conditioning Iowa showed was concerning.  It was yet another horribly called game by OC Greg Davis, Ferentz coached like a tenured professor, and the special teams made no adjustment.  NDSU continued to sky punts to prevent the big play, yet Iowa continued to go punt safe to set up a return.  Huh?  Take a gamble and rush the kick at least once.  Long story short, I have never seen a coaching staff squander all the good will a 12-0 regular season generates in one afternoon.  Disgusting.

Maryland – C+ – Talk about a bizarre game.  UCF out gained the Terps by nearly a hundred yards, UM couldn’t get anything going with their passing game, yet a plus 4 day on the turnover margin (4 to 0) allowed Maryland to survive a sloppy regulation and ultimately win in overtime.  The biggest positives to come from this one (outside the 3-0 start) are zero interceptions thrown again – this killed Maryland a year ago – and this club won their first road trip.  It wasn’t pretty but an ugly win is a million times better than a moral victory.

Michigan – A- – This was a strange game, too.  Colorado looked crisp and took advantage of a turnover to build a 21-7 lead at the end of the first quarter.  Everything else went Michigan’s way.  CU quarterback Sefo Liufau sprained his ankle and the Buff’s offense faltered the rest of the way without him.  Michigan’s defense also bottled up the CU running attack.  The defensive performance and sharp offense for the final three quarters was enough for me to give this an A- but a slow start against teams like Ohio State and Michigan State could create too great a hole for the Wolverines to get back from.

Michigan State – A – I know, I know, naysayers will argue the Spartans gave up 28 points and 400 yards but a lot of that came in the Irish’s furious fourth quarter rally so look at the rest of the game!  260 rushing yards, 38 minutes TOP, 9.3 yards per pass, three takeaways, and Tyler O’Connor’s coming out party.  Yes he won the OSU game a year ago but that was in a driving rain storm, to me this is his statement game.  Solid road win at a pretty good Notre Dame team.

Minnesota – Idle

Northwestern – B – Let’s start with the good, NU finally got into the win column after a rough 0-2 start.  The passing game clicked, outside two interceptions, and helped NU put up 24 points, their most in a single game this season.  The downside is their running game failed to be explosive, averaging just 2 yards a carry (Justin Jackson had a pedestrian 3.4 yards per) and the defense was okay but not remarkable.  All of this going against a rebuilding Duke team leaves me more worried than confident that the Cats are back on track.

Ohio State – A – I was tempted to make the Bucks the team of the week but we sort of expect Ohio State to crush everyone so their 21 point win at Oklahoma was business as usual, right?  Everything clicked in this one.  J.T. Barrett put up over 200 all purpose yards with four passing touchdowns, fellow backs Mike Weber and Curtis Samuel slashed the Sooners, and OSU’s defense had two takeaways while bottling up OU’s rushing attack.  Special recognition to wideout Noah Brown.  He had the Abe Lincoln as all four of J.T.’s passing scores went to him.

Penn State – B- – A C+ would have worked, but I’m a believer in Temple so I’m giving the Lions the benefit of the doubt.  PSU was sloppy with the ball (three turnovers), were adequate but not overly impressive rushing the ball, and awful on third down.  Temple nearly came all the way back despite a million penalty yards (118 on 13 flags) and zero rushing attack.  That has to cause some concern in Happy Valley.

Purdue – Idle

Rutgers – B – Just like the Michigan game, if you ignore the first quarter, Rutgers played pretty well, wining the final three quarters 30-7.  The problem is going forward, the cracks are clear.  The Lobos racked up 462 yards, nearly 300 on the ground, despite RU holding UNM to 3 of 15 on third down.  If they can’t shut down a middling Mountain West team, the rest of the season looks bleak.  I don’t like ending as a Debbie downer, so I’ll give a big tip of the cap to a pair of RU special team performances.  Janarion Grant had a 69 yard punt return for six.  Kicker David Bonagura hit all three of his field goal attempts, with a long of 41, and all four of his point afters for a 13 point day.

Western Michigan – A+ – The hot start for the league’s newest team continued as they moved to 3-0 on the year and 2-0 in conference.  The Bronco defense kept the Illini off balance as they had just 3, THREE, rushing yards as a team.

Wisconsin – D+ – Here’s the summary of this game.  Defense good!  Offense awful!  Who knew losing Corey Clement would cause the Badgers to go into a slumber?  Worse, by yanking Bart Houston for Alex Hornibrook and Alex creating a necessary spark there is now a quarterback controversy as the Badgers head into an insanely difficult stretch of the schedule.  Oops.  This one wasn’t meant to cause headaches, it was meant to fine tune things before the trip to East Lansing.

Game of the Week – MSU used a 15-0 second quarter to go in at half up 15-7.  A 21 point explosion in the third quarter was a thing of beauty as the Spartans looked like they could do no wrong.  Notre Dame though battled back with a solid fourth quarter to make things mighty, mighty interesting.  This was a fun game from start to finish and hats off to NBC for putting Mike Tirico and Doug Flutie together in the booth.  They were excellent and not like the usual Irish homers the peacock trots out for their games.

Why Did I Watch This? Award – Both the Western Michigan-Illinois and New Mexico-Rutgers games were first half scoring bonanzas with boring second halves.  However, unlike Rutgers which overcame a massive deficit to the Lobos to pull out a win, Illinois decided to hit the snooze button and stay on the mat.  Since the Broncos are now 2-0 against Big Ten teams, I am going to include them on the blog.  In fact, I already started based on giving them a grade earlier.  Let’s see if two league wins holds up.  Knowing Purdue, I have a feeling Western will not finish dead last in the league.

Gambling Report Card:

  • Illinois vs Western Michigan, Points (WMU -3), Under (54)

Splitsville to kick things off as the two combined for just 44 points but the Broncos steamrolled the Illini, 34-10.

  • Maryland at UCF, UM (-9.5), Over (59)

Massive swing and miss on this one.  Even if overtime counted towards the point total (it doesn’t in reality) the total was still only 54.  What a stinker for my bets.

  • Michigan vs Colorado, Points (UM, -19.5)

I thought Colorado would score late for a backdoor cover, instead their 21 point first quarter helped them avoid a major blowout.  Either way, I’ll take the win.

  • Michigan State at Notre Dame, Points (ND -8, Degenerate Pick)

Ah the enthusiast with a win after telling the casual gambler to stay away.  I thought the Spartans would win outright, they did, so grabbing those points worked out.

  • Nebraska vs Oregon, NU (-3), Over (74)

Got a wacky one here, folks!  First we get our money back for the point spread as the Huskers won 35-32.  Unfortunately those 67 points, while still fun to watch, were a touchdown and tow point conversion (looking at you Helfrich) shy of clearing the over.  So a loser bet and a money back tie.  Try explaining all that to the significant other.  “No, no, it’s okay, I only lost one of the bets, I technically tied the other!”

  • Northwestern vs Duke, Points (NU -3.5), Under (44)

Man, just as I think I have NU figured out and ready to bet against them they pull out a nine point win.  Still the total was only 37 so we get a split.

  • Ohio State vs Oklahoma, OSU (-1.5)

I have a feeling we will be making a lot of money by picking the Buckeyes to cover.  Still glad I avoided the over though.  It was 63.5 and while they combined for 69 points, the OSU defense is certainly capable of shutting folks down.

  • Penn State vs Temple, PSU (-9), Under (51.5)

I hate this Penn State team.  Not just because I think James Franklin is a crummy coach but they are bleeding me dry at the sportsbook.  They win by just seven against Temple AND are in a shootout type game that results in 61 total points.  Double damn.

  • Rutgers vs New Mexico, RU (-5.5), Over (57.5)

Per my preview, “I’m thinking 35-28 if it’s close or 42-21 in a blowout.”  I sort of split the difference with the 37-28 final.  Big double up because I have a feeling the Badger game was a stinker.  Spoiler alert, it was.

  • Wisconsin vs Georgia State, UW (-35), Over (50)

I arrogantly asked if that over was for the Badgers alone after GSU had given up 48 to the Air Force academy.  Long story short, the two combined for a paltry 40 points and Wisconsin escaped with a six point win.  Under .500 for the second straight week, but the good news is I am really dialed in for Ohio State so if I just give tips on their games and stay the hell away from everyone else we can make some money.

Week Record: 7-9-1

Season Record: 25-30-1

 

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