2016 Josh’s Week 4 Top 25

Oh the polls, how much I disagree with you.  How does 1-2 Oklahoma and Mississippi remained ranked when TCU, Western Michigan, and plenty of other options are floating around?  Who knows but it matters to some.  Here’s how I stack ’em up, hypocritical and all.

Real AP Poll:

  1. Alabama (50)
  2. Ohio State (4)
  3. Louisville (6)
  4. Michigan (1)
  5. Clemson – Why not just donate the money to South Carolina State and play LSU in the Tiger Bowl?  The world wants it!!!
  6. Houston – FYI, the Cougars play Louisville this year.  I suppose I’ll give it a viewing.
  7. Stanford
  8. Michigan State
  9. Washington
  10. Texas A&M – Up seven spots for beating Auburn by 13?  People have heard about Gus Malzahn’s job security, right?  People have heard about AU going 2-10 in their last 12 SEC games, right?
  11. Wisconsin
  12. Georgia – Up four spots for a last second win against Missouri.  Okay…then why’d you bump them so far for last week just to bring them right back up?  Silly voters.
  13. Florida State
  14. Tennessee
  15. Miami – Thought experiment.  Team A beats Team X 20-13 at home.  Team B beats the same Team X 45-10 at Team X’s house.  Who should be ranked above the other?  Not in AP land!  Miami behind Tennessee.
  16. Baylor
  17. Arkansas
  18. LSU – Guess people missed the part where Mississippi State nearly came back.
  19. Florida
  20. Nebraska – Had them ranked a week ago, but that’s none of my business.
  21. Texas – NO!
  22. San Diego State – YES!
  23. Ole Miss – DOUBLE NO!
  24. Utah – MAYBE?
  25. Oklahoma – TRIPLE NO!

My Top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. Louisville – So why did I pick these teams ahead of the Cards?  Well, Alabama is still Alabama.  Clemson and UL will settle it on the field.  Lastly, OSU’s most impressive win was on the road.  I enjoy splitting hairs.
  5. Michigan
  6. Stanford
  7. Tennessee – Dude, didn’t you bash the AP for having UT ahead of Miami by one spot.  You have a 10 spot gap!  This is some bull!  Okay, hear me out.  I never left the Vol’s bandwagon.  I have had them ranked 7th in all of my polls.  If AP voters want to ding UT for a narrow win and then praise Miami for a big win over the same opponent, then by their logic, Miami should be ahead of Tennessee.  But if you never punished Tennessee to start with, and you have Miami climbing the polls like I do, then it is justifiable to have a gap between the Vols and ‘Caines.
  8. Washington – The Huskies are laying low out west, just like they are laying low between blocks of writing ranting about UT and UH.  Chris Petersen has himself a hell of a club.
  9. Houston – As I said for UL last week, if Houston keeps winning things will sort out.  They get to play Louisville (who of course plays Clemson).  Michigan and OSU face each other.  Stanford and Washington square off.  Bama and Tennessee meet in the regular season but could meet again in the SEC title game, perhaps eliminating both all together.  I just don’t have teams fly up and down the rankings as much as the real AP, that’s why for the most part teams stand pat.
  10. Michigan State
  11. Georgia
  12. Wisconsin
  13. Texas A&M
  14. Florida State
  15. Baylor
  16. Arkansas
  17. Miami
  18. TCU
  19. LSU – Still feels too high, but I did have them ranked a week ago and they did win so I’m sort of stuck with ’em.  Anything too drastic and the AP might give me a vote.
  20. Nebraska
  21. San Diego State – That Cal win looks even sweeter now after the Bears dropped Texas.
  22. -25. SEE BELOW – Final Verdict

See Below – What the hell is that?

This is the most prestigious rankings on the internet, I can’t just give teams the final spots all willy nilly.  I had a reader say that this section wasn’t very clear so I’ll try and state the process more clearly.  Since many leagues will have a ton of teams on my radar, I only take one team from each league to start with.  Then I see if my final selections have played any FCS teams or have had a bad game (for example a 7-6 win by a SEC school over a C-USA team would qualify).  Then I take a select group after those criteria and examine their best win, worst win, best loss, and worst loss to make the final selections.

American Athletic Conference

South Florida crushed Syracuse on the road.  Memphis crushed Kansas at home.  So the AAC is feasting on power five clubs, got it.  Not to be out done Navy moved to 3-0 on the young year.  Because Kansas is Kansas, I am ignoring the Tigers for now.  Between USF and Navy, the Bulls have the most impressive win and consistently post a larger margin of victory.

AAC Nominee: South Florida

Atlantic Coast Conference

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are the surprising 3-0 teams while North Carolina and Pittsburgh have looked good despite each being 2-1.  The Rambling Wreck has beaten BC and Vanderbilt, possibly the two worst power conference teams (outside the Big 12’s stranglehold with Kansas and Iowa State) and a FCS team.  I’ll hold out for now.  Wake has played Tulane, Duke, and a FCS team so while a great story, that resume doesn’t stack up.  UNC looks a pinch better than Pitt with a neutral site loss to Georgia, crushed Illinois on the road, and took it to a FCS team.  As for that Pitt club, they have a road loss to Oklahoma State (by 7), a home win against Penn State, and a ho hum victory over a FCS team.  The fact that the Heels had a second half lead against a highly ranked UGA team makes the difference.

ACC Nominee: North Carolina

Big 12

With the off week West Virginia remains the only unbeaten Big 12 team to not get any love.  Sadly I’ll continue to overlook them now, too.  Oklahoma State bounced back with a nice win over Pitt, Texas showed they have no defense again, Texas Tech may have even less defense than the Horns, and despite what the real poll says, there is no chance in hell I’m ranking the Sooners.  I have Pitt winning their division in the ACC so I’ll go with the Pokes by shaking off the CMU game with an impressive win.  I am also going to make an extremely rare exception and toss Texas in.  I had them 16th last week, I want to look at their resume one last time because beating Notre Dame is still big…possibly.

Big 12 Nominee: Oklahoma State / Texas

Big Ten

Maryland is 3-0, Minnesota is 2-0, and Iowa was ranked 13th a week ago.  Penn State is also a respectable 2-1.  No suspense, it isn’t even close.  Iowa, based on their ranking a week ago deserves consideration for the time being – just like Texas.

Big Ten Nominee: Iowa

Mid American Conference

Man the MAC west is good.  Central Michigan, Toledo, and Western Michigan are all 3-0.  Unfortunately for Rockets fans, Toledo hasn’t faced a power five team yet, although their road trip to BYU next week after a bye will be interesting.  Central backed their Oklahoma State win up with a 44-21 drubbing of UNLV.  Western though is undefeated in the Big Ten with both games on the road.  Based on how the Bears and some of the FCS programs have looked, the best team from the state of Illinois may actually Western Michigan since they took down Northwestern and Illinois.  Row the boat!

MAC Nominee: Western Michigan

Mountain West Conference

Can someone else join the Aztecs in the rankings from this league?  Well, Air Force and Boise State are doing their best at 2-0 each.  Going with the Broncos because they have played a road game at ULL and a power five team.  Air Force has looked good but it has been against a FCS club and Georgia State.

MW Nominee: Boise State

Pacific 12 Conference

Cal and Oregon can make a compelling argument, after all their losses against SDSU and Nebraska were both on the road, but Cal has given up 83 points in their last two and UO hadn’t played anyone until the Nebraska game.  That leaves 3-0 Arizona State and Utah as the best contenders.  ASU survived Texas San Antonio late while Utah’s defense has been on fire early.  Let’s go Utes.

Pac 12 Nominee: Utah

Southeastern Conference

Really no contest here.  Ole Miss was glanced at because the real polls have them in but I dismissed them immediately for undefeated Florida.

SEC Nominee: Florida

Elimination Time

The above nine teams join Army, Georgia Southern, and Notre Dame to form a list of 12 teams for the last four spots in my ballot.  I am not including North Dakota State because their first two wins were really tight against fellow FCS teams so I’m not sure they are worth consideration…yet.  The first criteria I will look at is who has played FCS teams and then look at any bad games.

FCS Much?…Everyone but Army, Boise State, Florida, and Notre Dame have dipped into the lower pool but only one of them has lost.  See ya Iowa.  Let’s be fair though, it wasn’t like wins over Miami (OH) or Iowa State was going to get you very far in later criteria.

Bad Game(s)…I think this Boise team has a high ceiling, but I just can’t get over their narrow three point win over Washington State that also featured three interceptions.  Until the Broncos rip off a lot of wins or Wazzu gets hot, I’m going to keep them out, peace!  Georgia Southern beat a Louisiana Monroe team projected as one of the worst in the Sun Belt by just two points, adios.  The Irish have two losses and gave up a whopping 86 points in them, mmmbye.  Even without the theatrics at the end, Oklahoma State didn’t look like a top-25 team against Central Michigan.  Worse, their points allowed keeps going up, sayonara.  And Texas, oh you lovable Horns (not really, I hate that ugly orange color).  You have given up 97 points to the only two real teams you have faced!  Until you show any defense or start pulling off wins left and right I am going to ignore what the real AP is saying and leave you out.

Final Six

From a massive list down to just Army, Florida, North Carolina, USF, Utah, and Western Michigan to pick the rankings 22 through 25.  For this I try to just look at a couple of games: each team’s best win, worst win, best loss (i.e. a moral victory), and worst loss.

  • Army
    • BW: At Temple
    • WW: Rice
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Florida
    • BW: Kentucky
    • WW: UMass
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • North Carolina
    • BW: At Illinois
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: Georgia (Neutral)
    • WL: N/A
  • USF
    • BW: At Syracuse
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Utah
    • BW: BYU
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A
  • Western Michigan
    • BW: At Illinois
    • WW: FCS
    • BL: N/A
    • WL: N/A

The first thing that jumps out to me is North Carolina is the only team with a loss at this stage.  They’re out for sure.  That leaves one more team to be bounced before ranking the last four.  I know Western is a lock, they’re the only team of this group with wins over two power five conference teams.  I also know Florida is in because they have allowed just 14 points all season.

That means Army, USF, or Utah is getting the hook.  I’m inclined to leave Army because they haven’t faced a FCS club and they’ve gone on the road…twice.  Plus they scored more (66 points) on UTEP then Texas did (41) and we all know UT can score in bunches.  So Bulls or Utes, who is getting the short end this week?  Unfortunately it is South Florida.  Northern Illinois is winless and the Bulls played a FCS school.  Utah played FCS level competition too, but at least BYU and SJSU have wins.  Plus BYU has been the best looking 1-2 team of the year, if that matters.  Sorry USF, hope you beat Florida State though!  I’ll be rooting for ya!

Army, Florida, Utah, and Western Michigan.  What a good group.  Since I had to think long and hard about Utah, they will be my 25th ranked team.  The Florida defense is probably the best single unit out of anything this group currently has to offer, so despite the Del Rio injury under center, I’m putting them 22nd.  Army and Western both have two road wins, but the fact that the Broncos have taken down two Big Ten schools, including just waxing Illinois, is damn fine work.  They will go 23rd with the Black Knights 24th.

FINAL VERDICT:

22. Florida

23. Western Michigan

24. Army

25. Utah

League Breakdown:

7 – SEC

5 – Big Ten

4 – ACC

3 – Pac 12

2 – Big 12

1 – American, Independent, MAC, Mountain West

 

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