The old cliche is that the biggest jump a team makes is from week one to week two. I’m sure there are countless examples of this not being true, but there is a nugget of reality in it. It is difficult for coaches to know what they have and then adjust until there is an actual game. Most teams are still in the feeling out process with some easier games, including three Big Ten teams playing FCS foes, but there are still some intriguing games, including a gem of one in the Keystone State. Interestingly, Michigan State has the week off. Curious if that will help or hurt for that Notre Dame game. Personally, I think it will help a bit. As always, all times are central.
Game of the Week:
Penn State at Pittsburgh
Let’s ignore half of the equation (for now) and just focus on the two teams. Pitt is a contender to win their division in the ACC and Penn State has had enough solid recruiting classes to feel they should be able to compete in the stacked Big Ten East. Both have really good ground games and their defenses are bruisers. That would make this appointment TV anyway but now let’s factor in the rivalry part of this formula. The two Pennsylvania schools squared off constantly, in fact, from looking at the series on winsipedia, it looks like they played every year from the mid 1930s until 1992. Perhaps politics got in the way, perhaps Penn State joining the Big Ten monkeyed it up, perhaps Pitt was more focused on the rivalry with West Virginia and didn’t care but either way it stopped. The series renewed in the late 90s, briefly. Since 2000 it has been on hold. We have 16 years of the two biggest programs in a state full of solid recruits ready to tango this Saturday. I’m fired up.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPN
Sleeper:
The Illini’s defense was solid last year but their worst day at the office was in Chapel Hill last year, giving up 48 in a lopsided loss. UNC still has a solid running back in Elijah Hood but saw turnover at other places, including under center. As someone buying stock in Lovie and having this club making a bowl, I am excited to see them in action against one of the ACC’s best. UI can still make a bowl without the win and while I’m not convinced they will pull off the upset, I really want to see how competitive they can make this one especially with a veteran QB in Wes Lunt.
- Saturday, 6:30pm, BTN
Don’t Forget:
Didn’t expect the train to be here I’m assuming, right? Well I bumped this game up because Purdue showed a little bit of friskiness against Eastern Kentucky. Flawless, no, but a little improved, yes. The Bearcats on the other hand looked lifeless against UT Martin. Their performance was so flat, that it makes me think that maybe, just maybe, Purdue can steal a win at home. Certainly makes me curious to watch.
- Saturday, 11am, BTN
Snoozer:
Oh my god that Bison is going to blindside our knight! To be honest, none of the games I looked at to put in this slot are horrible but I have to pick one. As a result the worst team in the league (as of now) taking on FCS Howard gets the nod. I’ll pass on watching this one.
- Saturday, 11am, BTN…for the love of god watch the Penn State game or tailgate (honestly both) at 11 in the morning. Don’t watch this one.
Upset Watch:
Right End – Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois are all underdogs. Picking Purdue for anything is always dicey and Illinois has a pretty tough task with the Heels. Penn State is the smart pick here.
Wrong End – Gee, stop me if this sounds familiar, a struggling Iowa State team takes on Iowa as a two touchdown underdog. This is a strange rivalry game because it means almost everything to State fans and almost nothing to Hawkeye fans. As a result, it tends to be a tight game and the Cyclones have won more than their fair share in the series. ISU running back Mike Warren is also the real deal. Iowa’s fierce front seven will need to be up to the task to avoid calamity.
- Saturday, 6:30pm, BTN
Elsewhere (Alphabetical Order):
Indiana vs Ball State – Cardinals won their opener at Georgia State, a bowl team from a year ago, so there could be some bite to this MAC team. Factor in the in-state aspect and this could be a fun one to watch. Would love to see Indiana hold another team to under two TDs and force turnovers again.
- Saturday, 3pm, ESPNN
Maryland at FIU – Still stand by Florida International being a frisky club even after the Indiana game. There is too much offensive potential to completely write them off. Terps had a solid opener but it was against a FCS foe. UM should be just fine and win, but the step up in competition makes this one worth looking in on.
- Friday, 6:30pm, CBSSN
Michigan vs UCF – The Knights went 0-12 last year but started out much better this year with a shutout victory against a FCS outfit. An American team is still better than most group of five but all signs point to another Michigan blowout.
- Saturday, 11am, ABC
Minnesota vs Indiana State – Sycamores aren’t exactly the greatest FCS program so the Gophers should breeze through this one. ISU did win their opener against Butler. Fun fact, ISU is in the Missouri Valley Football Conference – kind of the SEC of the lower tier. Butler is in the Pioneer Football Conference, a league that does not offer football scholarships. Not sure about you, but I find little tidbits like that fascinating.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPNN
Nebraska vs Wyoming – Pokes had one of the better wins last week as they knocked off MAC power Northern Illinois in overtime out in Laramie. Nebraska should win this one 9 out of 10 times and most of those are blowouts but Wyoming is coached by Craig Bohl who won three straight national titles at North Dakota State and is a former Husker assistant. Wyoming should be fired up for their coach.
- Saturday, 11am, ESPN2
Northwestern vs Illinois State – NU was already going to win this game against a FCS team somewhat easily (probably) but after a tough loss in week one, you know Fitzy will have the kids dialed in. An 0-2 start would be disastrous.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, BTN
Ohio State vs Tulsa – The Golden Hurricanes went to a bowl last year, have a funky air raid attack, and was in midseason form against San Jose State to start the year. That adds up to this being a much more interesting game than the Bowling Green opener for the Bucks. Although when your benchmark is 77-10, interesting is a relative term.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, ABC
Wisconsin vs Akron – Zips backed up their first bowl win in program history with a nice win over FCS VMI last week. Wisconsin made a little bit bigger statement with their opener. Akron isn’t by any means awful, but it doesn’t look like they have much of a shot in this one.
- Saturday, 2:30pm, BTN
Random Musing:
I forgot to do this last week. Whoops! As a result I wrote a long one. Enjoy!
Purdue and Cincy play for their third time in series history this week. Their first meeting was in 2001. Purdue narrowly won. Their next meeting was in 2013 and the Bearcats crushed them. It has been a strange 15 years in college football with some programs rising up and some hitting really hard times. These two programs are in that narrative. Let’s look back on what has happened to both programs since the 2001 season opener.
Purdue had just come off a magical 2000 season. Joe Tiller had just completed his fourth year and the Train had gone to four straight bowl games. Their 2000 season ended in a competitive 10 point loss to Washington in Pasadena. No, there wasn’t some funny bowl back then, Purdue was in the Rose Bowl that year. Drew Brees had just finished his career but there was still tons of talent to keep the good times going, including incoming freshman Kyle Orton.
Cincinnati has always been between a rock and a hard place. When the split from D1 to 1-A (now FBS) and 1-AA (now FCS) started happening in the 1970s, Cincy was in a tough spot. They were too big to stay in the Missouri Valley, too big to return to the MAC, too small for a major conference, and too weak of a program to pull a Michigan State and force a league to invite them like the Spartans could do in the 1950s. As a result UC was an independent, much like Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and others from 1970 until 1996. Unlike Miami, UL, and Tech though, UC football never really got off the ground. For instance in the 1989-1990 back-to-back seasons they went a brutal 2-19-1. In 1994 UC hired Rick Minter and he brought something new to the program: stability. By 1997 he had them in their first bowl since 1951. They won that game too, marking their first bowl win since 1949. The 2000 team would go 7-5 with a bowl loss but their 5-2 mark in C-USA was their best finish since joining the league in ’96.
After the win over UC to open up 2001, Purdue would run the mark to 4-0 and get them up to 17th in the polls but the team couldn’t keep it up. They finished 2-6 including losses to in-state rivals Indiana and Notre Dame. UC would shake off an uneven 1-2 start to finish the regular season 6-2. A bowl loss brought them to the final 7-5 mark but for the second straight year they would finish second in the league behind a solid Louisville team.
In 2002 Purdue would improve slightly with a bowl win. UC stayed consistent winning 7 games and losing the bowl, however, they would claim the C-USA title that year. 2003 was Tiller’s last truly relevant team winning 9 games, finishing second in the league, and having his last appearance in a final season poll. 03 would prove to be Minter’s last year with the program. After a disappointing 5-7 season the program would surprise many by firing their all time leader in wins after ten seasons.
2004 would see Purdue lose their 5th bowl game in six seasons and a return to mediocrity with just a 7-5 overall record. Over in Ohio, Mark Dantonio would guide UC to 7 wins and a bowl victory in his debut season. 2005 saw PU slip below .500 for the first time since 1996 and the first time in Tiller’s run. UC would grind out four wins but clearly joining the Big East impacted their results.
2006 and 2007 would be Tiller’s last gasp at getting the Boilers back. They went a respectable 16-11 and won a bowl in 07 but it would be fool’s gold. Their mark was inflated by non conference wins as they would go just 8-8 in league over that run. In those two years the Bearcats won 18 games and two bowls as Dantonio finished his run in 2006 and Brian Kelly kicked things off in 2007.
2008 would be Tiller’s last year as they limped to a 4-8 record and he retired. Over in the Queen City, UC would win 11 games and play in the Orange Bowl. 2009 was former Tiller assistant and Eastern Kentucky coach Danny Hope’s first year. They would go just 5-7 but showed promise in a 4-4 Big Ten finish. UC would finish the regular season 12-0. A Sugar Bowl loss was undoubtedly caused in some part by Kelly taking the Irish job and not coaching the game.
2010 was a down year for both programs as each won just 4 games. In 2011 Hope finally got Purdue inching forward with a seven wins, four in league, and a bowl victory. UC would win 10 games, including a bowl, and finish the season in the polls again. 2012 was more mediocrity from Purdue, going just 6-7 and firing Hope before their bowl game. UC would win their fourth Big East crown in five years and win yet another bowl. Butch Jones would also depart for Tennessee after his run with the Bearcats.
In 2013 both programs had new coaches. Purdue took a flyer on what they hoped would be an up and comer in Darrell Hazell. Cincy got a long time winner who had a misstep in Texas Tech with Tommy Tuberville. In their debut seasons Purdue would go 1-11 and winless in league. One of the worst years in program history. Tubbs would win nine games in the revamped Big East, restructured as the American.
The 2014 Purdue club would go 3-9 with just a single league win. Cincy would win yet another league title and nine wins overall. Last year Purdue went 2-10 with just one Big Ten victory. The ‘Cats would limp to seven wins in a snake-bit campaign. Entering this year, UC is a bona fide AAC title contender and Purdue isn’t even a sleeper pick for success in the Big Ten.
In short, programs don’t rise or fall over night. Since meeting on a fall day in 2001 at 0-0, Purdue has gone 82-104 with eight bowl games, winning 3. Cincinnati has a 120-71 mark and six league championships to go along with 12 bowl games, winning 5. The Big Ten likes to strut around and say they would never add UC because of academics (it’s basically the same as Nebraska) or that it doesn’t add a tv market (all television will soon be streaming, sports will figure it out) or the conspiracy theory that Ohio State doesn’t want another team in their back yard (I doubt OSU cares) but this is pushing the narrative that UC is inadequate in some way. By making a program seem inadequate it allows the league to hide something valuable. What the league really doesn’t want to admit is that we have some dog programs and the comparison of the last 15 years between these two schools shows that.
The last 15 years has been hard on Purdue. Mismanagement, poor coaching hires, and lack of interest has tanked the program. The Bearcats are a fantastic story. This program could have withered during the dark days as an independent. They could have bombed in the C-USA lifeboat. Instead they have improved their stadium. They have hired Mark Dantonio (MSU), Brian Kelly (Notre Dame), Butch Jones (Tennessee) and lured Tuberville not too far removed from his outstanding Auburn run to their program and whenever you catch them on television, check out the fired up fans.
The question for Purdue is, do they look towards the UC model and get back on the long haul towards relevance, or are they content with being an anchor around this league’s neck? If they are unable or unwilling to improve, I have a simple solution. Trade Purdue with Cincinnati. The hang up is, if I were the American Athletic Conference commissioner, I would reject that trade. Purdue brings about as much to the table as a last second field goal down five.
Big Ten and Counting 