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Best Case / Worst Case / Prediction – 2016 Ohio State

Cardale Jones or J.T. Barrett, it feels like a debate from a decade ago but it was actually this time last year when Ohio State appeared to have an embarrassment of riches at the quarterback position.  It didn’t turn out that way.  Ohio State finished just 104th in the nation last year in passing.  A 12th ranked rushing attack led by Ezekiel Elliott resulted in a decent 32nd ranked scoring attack so it wouldn’t be fair to say the offense was a weakness it was clearly one-dimensional.  Besides, it’s not like the results suffered.

The Buckeyes opened 10-0 (6-0) before a field goal in a driving rain storm resulted in a loss to Michigan State.  The odds of winning the East took a big hit that late in the seson with that loss but there was still hope for Indy, even the tournament if there was some mayhem so OSU spanked rival Michigan (again) to go 11-1 (7-1) last year.  Of course MSU took care of Penn State to block the Buckeye’s from facing Iowa.  Laying the lumber to Notre Dame in the Fiesta bowl wrapped up yet another strong season for the league’s best program.

With so much talk about the season long soap opera at quarterback and then Zeke going off in a 1800 yard campaign the real strength of this team was often overlooked.  It was a shame too, because the Buckeyes’ defense finished as the second best scoring unit a year ago allowing just 14 points per game.

Let’s start with that side of the ball because it appears to be a little more in flux.  After all, DC Chris Ash is now the head coach at Rutgers and a ton of players were drafted, including third overall pick Joey Bosa.  However, the Bucks still have Luck Fickell to help run that side of the ball and brought in former RU head man and NFL coach Greg Schiano to replace Ash.  Schiano and Fickell could easily be head coaches but instead they focus purely on stopping the opposition.  It’s a scary brain trust.  In terms of talent there are the usual whose who of top end recruits but Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard are proven forces on the ends of a good line.  Raekwon McMillan is also a stud linebacker.  Lastly, there is another Bosa – Nick Bosa – ready to be unleashed.

Offensively they don’t return much but what they do have back is excellent.  Up front is Pat Elflein and Billy Price, who will keep J.T. Barrett clean and pave the way for another devastating rushing attack.  The WR and RB positions will be young, but like always talented thanks to their recruiting.  And then there is Barrett.  No longer looking over his shoulder, he gets to be unleashed as the confident Heisman caliber player he was in 2014 before getting hurt and Cardale Jones entered the discussion.

Let’s review, 2800 passing yards, 64.7%, 9.03 ypa, 34 TDs, 10 INTs, 938 rushing yards, 5.5 yards per carry, and 11 rushing TDS in 2014.  What.  The.  Hell!?!?  I’d take that in a video game.  So last year he missed some practice time rehabbing and Jones did win the national title so Meyer tried to play a two-QB dance.  Compare their numbers:

  • Completion percentage:
    • Jones, 62.5
    • Barrett, 63.3
  • Yards per attempt:
    • Jones, 8.30
    • Barrett, 6.75
  • Touchdowns:
    • Jones, 8
    • Barrett, 11
  • Interceptions:
    • Jones, 5
    • Barrett, 4
  • Rating:
    • Jones, 141.5
    • Barrett, 139.2
  • Rushing average:
    • Jones, 3.0
    • Barrett, 5.9
  • Rushing TDs:
    • Jones, 2
    • Barrett, 11

So passing was pretty close, Jones’ strong arm stretching the field a little more reflected in the YPA but once you factor in the rushing game, it isn’t even close.  Another thing to consider is who they played.  Jones was played less as the season went on and didn’t even take a snap against Michigan or Notre Dame.  Barrett rushed for 139, threw for 113 and generated an Abe Lincoln (4 scores) against UM.  He shredded Notre Dame with over 200 passing yards and “only” 96 rushing.  Those were among the best defenses OSU faced all last year.  The bottom line is J.T. Barrett is the better college quarterback because he is such a duel threat.  He should have started all year and he is, without question, the best offensive weapon in the league…and now he doesn’t have to sit around wondering what Urban is doing.  Scary notion for the rest of the league.

2016 Schedule

Bowling Green

  • Best Case – Per the podcast I co-host, we all like Bowling Green to win their division in the MAC but the Falcons have a new coach and lost some other key pieces.  1-0
  • Worst Case – Outside injuries, I’m not seeing this game throwing a monkey wrench into OSU’s season.  1-0
  • Prediction – W, 42-10, 1-0

Tulsa

  • BC – Tulsa was a fun air raid team last year and gunslinger Dane Evans will put up a ton of numbers again this year.  He just won’t put them up against Ohio State.  2-0
  • WC – The Golden Hurricanes made a bowl last year and seem to be building a nice program but I can’t give them more than a 5% shot at victory in this game.  2-0
  • P – W, 45-13, 2-0

At Oklahoma

  • BC – Buckeyes have two warm ups for all the new faces to get used to game speed.  Is that enough?  Hmm.  3-0
  • WC – Oklahoma returns a boatload of talent, including their own Heisman candidate QB in Baker Mayfield.  2-1
  • P – Honestly, this is Ohio State’s toughest game.  Norman is a nasty place to play, Oklahoma is just as talented as Ohio State, and with all the youth OSU has the best time to beat them is early.  Now, am I going to take Oklahoma?  Hell no!  I’ve learned long ago as a Big Ten fan to never bet against Ohio State.  I’ve also learned that the Sooners’ rush defense is their biggest weakness.  I could see J.T. putting up 150 on the ground.  W, 31-28, 3-0

Rutgers

  • BC – Since OSU doesn’t play Purdue, this is the biggest talent gap league game the Big Ten has this year.  4-0
  • WC – Urban Meyer has just four losses in his career at OSU.  Now, two of them were consecutive (2013 Big Ten Title Game against MSU and Orange Bowl versus Clemson).  None of those teams sound like this Rutgers team.  3-1
  • P – W, 55-13, 4-0 (1-0)

Indiana

  • BC – Indiana gave OSU some fits last year but that was with a great QB in Nate Sudfeld and at home.  Neither luxury this year.  5-0
  • WC – Maybe another scare like last year?  4-1
  • P – Indiana is an improving product and has a good shot at a second straight bowl but the talent gap on paper is still staggering.  W, 42-13, 5-0 (2-0)

At Wisconsin

  • BC – Despite UW’s solid-looking defense, there are some real questions about what kind of offensive punch the Badgers will have.  6-0
  • WC – Madison is never an easy trip and the only defense better than OSU’s last year?  You guessed it.  4-2
  • P – J.T. Barrett throwing with his off-hand is still a better weapon at that position than what Wisconsin has…probably.  W, 28-7, 6-0 (3-0)

At Penn State

  • BC – Fun fact, PSU gave up 38 sacks last year.  Did I mention OSU has a good front seven?  7-0
  • WC – Despite all the wonderful recruiting, OSU is still young.  In fact they only have six starters back total.  Penn State has also had a bunch of top 25 recruiting classes recently.  It’s not impossible for OSU to have a step back season.  4-3
  • P – The Nittany Lions barely got to 300 yards last year, and that was with an NFL caliber qb.  W, 35-14, 7-0 (4-0)

Northwestern

  • BC – Yawn, 50 points dropped on yet another team.  8-0
  • WC – Even with a step back year, I don’t see NU having enough offense to pull out a win in Columbus.  5-3
  • P – Northwestern has so many questions on offense and as of now so few answers, it wouldn’t surprise me to see OSU hold them under 200 total yards in a rout.  W, 45-6, 8-0 (5-0)

Nebraska

  • BC – Probably number 1 in the nation by now, right?  9-0
  • WC – Nebraska has 9 starters back on offense.  Tommy Armstrong Jr is almost as good an athlete as J.T. Barrett.  If TAJ can cut down on his interceptions, he could contend for offensive player of the year.  You know what O-MVPs do?  Pull off upsets on the road.  5-4
  • P – Of course Nebraska had the 97th ranked defense a year ago and it looks to be a major weakness again this year.  W, 38-14, 9-0 (6-0)

At Maryland

  • BC – Maryland left the ACC for late season blowouts by OSU instead of Florida State?  Got it.  10-0
  • WC – A moral victory……for Maryland.  6-4
  • P – I think D.J. Durkin can turn Maryland around eventually but a year one upset over OSU would be a silly argument to try and make.  W, 42-17, 10-0 (7-0)

At Michigan State

  • BC – In addition to Connor Cook, MSU has a some skill players and linemen to replace.  A step back isn’t that crazy.  11-0
  • WC – Tyler O’Connor did win this game a year ago in the Shoe…6-5
  • P – The reason I think the Oklahoma game is the toughest is because by this late in the season, OSU will be firing on all cylinders.  W, 28-24, 11-0 (8-0)

Michigan

  • BC – Questions at LB and the running game turn a season full of potential into a disappointing one for Michigan.  OSU fans laugh and drop their rival yet again.  12-0
  • WC – Michigan ends up being the real deal and the extremely young Buckeyes put in a season like 2011 where it just doesn’t quite click.  6-6
  • P – I’d rather go into battle with J.T. Barrett and unknown youth instead of a transfer from Houston or a career backup.  W, 28-24, 12-0 (9-0)

Final Notes

Ohio State is the team to beat because of recruiting, coaching, and J.T. Barrett.  It’s not that it can’t happen, it’s just not a very smart bet to make in August before a second of football has been played.  So with that in mind, yes, I do have Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.

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