To put into context the delight 2015 brought all Hawkeye fans for people unfamiliar with Iowa football, you need to take the long view of the Kirk Ferentz era. 2002, 2003, and 2004 were all double-digit win seasons, were all New Year’s Day Bowls, were all 8th ranked finishes, two bowls were won, the Orange Bowl appearance, and two conference championships. It was a run not experienced since the first half of the Hayden Fry era.
The thread that connected all these teams were stellar QB play. Brad Banks was the Heisman runner-up in 2002. Drew Tate had the Favre-ian DNA in him that made him fearless – plus he had a cannon of an arm. Ken O’Keefe, now in the NFL coaching QBs, seemed to work with Banks and Tate in a way that made Hawk fans confident the good times would keep rolling.
Unfortunately, sports can be cruel. From 2005-2007 Iowa went just 19-18 (11-13) with two bowl losses and bottoming out at 6-6 with no bowl in 2007. The first time Ferentz failed to make a bowl since 2000. What had happened? Well some recruits didn’t pan out. Some injuries, especially to running backs, but chiefly Iowa didn’t have an elite quarterback.
In 2008 Iowa started with the despised Jake Christensen. Jake had inherited the job from Drew Tate but while Tate had that natural playmaking ability to pull something good out of his butt, Jake was the opposite. His tepid 6.0 yards per and sub 55% in 2007 put him on thin ice. A slim 17-5 win over ISU and then losing to Pitt changed the course. Ricky Stanzi got the starter’s job and away Iowa went. 2008 ended as a nine win year. 2009 saw 11 wins, a top 10 ranking, and an Orange Bowl win. We’re back baby!
But we weren’t. 2010 was an eight win season but with a lot of pieces from that defense gone, the slide was natural. 2011 was a seven win season and ended with the program’s first bowl loss since 2006. 2012 was a bottoming out. New coordinators and the infuriating James Vandenberg under center took the brunt of the sports talk radio attacks. That dismal 2012 campaign ended with a 4-8 mark. Iowa’s first losing season since 2000.
2013 Was a little better thanks to Jake Rudock being a million times better than Vandenberg but eight wins and a bowl loss aren’t exactly the glory days. 2012 saw just 7 wins and a bowl beat down by Tennessee. Krik’s seat had become as hot as ever. Enter “New Kirk.” He would no longer be loyal to under-performing vets. He would no longer refuse to go for it on fourth down. He would even throw in some trick plays. More importantly, he would try to get faster skill position players.
His first order of business was to announce C.J. Beathard would be the new QB. Rudock would transfer and finish his career with a nice season at Michigan. But the difference was noticed right away. Beathard has the same “it” as Drew Tate. He is willing to run and take a hit. Granted it got him hurt and his numbers weren’t as hot down the stretch as they were early, but that leadership and energy is intoxicating.
Iowa and Kirk Ferentz were reinvigorated going into the season. Fans were skeptical. Can a coach entering their 17th year really turn over a new leaf? What about the often derided OC Greg Davis? Wasn’t he still a weak link? Well it didn’t take long for Iowa to show they could be something special. In week three a 51 yard field goal to beat Pitt followed two weeks later by a gritty 10-6 win at Camp Randall put Iowa at 5-0. A 40-10 thrashing at Northwestern pushed the record to 7-0. Escaping a gritty Minnesota team making a furious comeback made it 10-0. A Thanksgiving black Friday win in Lincoln made it 12-0. Unblemished regular season. Most wins in school history. A chance at the College Football Playoffs.
Michigan State nipped Iowa in Indianapolis but the Rose Bowl was still a nice prize. Unfortunately Iowa had to take on a Stanford team that felt left out of the playoffs and pissed that Christian McCaffery – who should have won the Heisman in a landslide – somehow lost. Stanford had plenty to play for and Iowa was just happy to be there. Those type of match ups seldom go well and Stanford kicked our asses.
But unlike the fall off after 2009 where the defense faced new players or after the Banks-Tate era ended without a good quarterback Iowa returns plenty of talent and that is why expectations are high. Ferentz generated a ton of good will with last year’s surprising run but fans – justifiably – expect another good season.
In addition to C.J. Beathard being back, LeShun Dnaiels (bruiser) and Akrum Wadley (burner) give Iowa a solid running back tandem. All members of the backfield also get to operate behind a solid offensive line. In fact, the OL is probably the best in the division. The weak link is the receiving group. Leading receiver Matt VandeBerg is back but Tevaun Smith, who was the speedy field stretcher, and TE Henry Krieger-Coble are gone. Iowa is relying on a lot of new faces and George Kittle to step up in order for Beathard to have some targets.
Iowa finished with the 15th ranked scoring defense and while that is superb, the knack for takeaways is what made this unit deadly. Desmond King won the Thorpe primarily because of his Big Ten leading 8 interceptions. King leads a veteran secondary into this year. The linebacking group isn’t as experienced as the secondary but does return the Outlaw Josey Jewell. On the Illegal Motion Podcast, I picked Jewell to be my Big Ten Defensive MVP. It isn’t a stretch. He led the Hawks in tackles last year, had 4 picks and was second on the team in tackles for loss. The defensive line does lose Drew Ott but the rest of the cast is strong. Overall Wisconsin has a better front seven but Iowa has the second best front in the division.
Lastly the special teams. This is easily Iowa’s biggest weakness. Desmond King was okay as a returner but that side still lacked any punch. Worse, Marshall Koehn, a pretty reliable kicker, graduated. You need to be strong in the third phase but it doesn’t look like Iowa has that aspect heading into the season. That could trip them up at some point.
2016 Schedule
Miami (OH)
- Best Case – The RedHawks have been in a funk for a long time and last year was no different going 3-9 with losses by 58 to Wisconsin and 42 to Western Kentucky among other blowouts. 1-0
- Worst Case – An injury. 1-0
- Prediction – 49-3, 1-0
Iowa State
- BC – ISU has a brand new coach, new system, and questions about their quarterback. I like that. 2-0
- WC – Mike Warren is one of the best running backs in the Big 12. Plus State always plays this one tough. 1-1
- P – Over on that pod (I keep plugging it, it’s a good show!) I said I sort of like what ISU is doing and think they can make a bowl. Luckily, Iowa’s defense will come up with some timely stops to avoid this upset. W, 28-20, 2-0
North Dakota State
- BC – Carson Wentz has graduated, yes! 3-0
- WC – NDSU is never a team to overlook as they have dominated the FCS ranks for years but Iowa has never lost to an FCS team. 2-1
- P – In another preview I talked about the three predominant styles for FCS clubs win. It is either an in state thing (i.e. James Madison over Va Tech), the FBS team is truly awful (i.e. Kansas) or the FCS team is really good and the FBS team takes them too lightly (i.e. App State over Michigan). The first two don’t apply and the third one could come into play, but I’m not sure without Wentz that the Bison are equipped to pull off the upset. W, 31-14, 3-0
At Rutgers
- BC – Rutgers hired a defensive coach but they are lacking in talent on that side of the ball. Beathard goes off. 4-0
- WC – A pretty sizable talent gap, Iowa finds a way to scratch out a victory. 3-1
- P – Sometimes the best way to phrase it is the first time you wrote it. From my RU preview: When you looks at the X’s and O’s, Iowa has the dean of Big Ten coaches who has 3 BCS level bowl games, 2 Big Ten championships, 1 BT title game appearances, and is a 4x BT coach of the year. Rutgers has a guy who has never been a head coach. In terms of the talent, Iowa has advantage under center and the much better defense. W, 28-10, 4-0 (1-0)
Northwestern
- BC – Iowa destroyed NU a year ago and I don’t think the 2016 Cats are nearly as good as their 2015 version. 5-0
- WC – Fitzy hates Iowa. It’s a fact and he will do whatever he can to ruin our season. 3-2
- P – Iowa’s defense was magnificent in this game a year ago and I just wrote a ton above about how many players are back from that unit. W, 28-14, 5-0 (2-0)
At Minnesota
- BC – Minnesota pushed Iowa last year, no doubt about it but the talent favors the Hawkeyes. They get it done on the road. 6-0
- WC – If last year’s game had been 65 minutes, I think UM would have won. 3-3
- P – Better defense and better QB allows Iowa to survive the Bank in another nail biter between these two old rivals. W, 31-28, 6-0 (3-0)
At Purdue
- BC – Colin Cowherd’s head explodes. 7-0
- WC – Purdue gets a moral victory as Iowa keeps their bowl hopes alive. 4-3
- P – Iowa had a comfortable 20 point win a year ago. Should be able to do the same this time around. W, 42-24, 7-0 (4-0)
Wisconsin
- BC – Iowa forces a ton of turnovers again, hits the top 5, and has a firm grip on the West. 8-0
- WC – Wisconsin’s nasty defense results in the opposite of last year. This time it is Iowa turning the ball over left and right and UW escapes with a road victory. 4-4
- P – When a game looks like a toss-up I like to look at who has the better quarterback and who is the home team. Both criteria favor Iowa. W, 17-10, 8-0 (5-0)
At Penn State
- BC – Penn State’s OL was about as strong as a jellyfish last year. Iowa racks up the sacks to win a difficult road game. Gameday coming to Iowa City next week. 9-0
- WC – While Franklin’s coaching leaves something to be desired, there is no denying the impressive recruiting classes he has assembled. If they ever have it all click, watch out. 4-5
- P – I said it in my PSU preview and it is worth repeating here: Iowa has a better OL, better QB situation, and a lot of key pieces back on defense. PSU is rebuilding their DL, lost their DC, and has questions at QB. I also believe Ferentz is a better coach and has a chip on his shoulder about being a Pennsylvania boy who never got the call from PSU. Hawks in a nail-biter. W, 28-24, 9-0 (6-0)
Michigan
- BC – I watch my brother’s friends (he’s a UM grad) squirm all afternoon in Kinnick. 10-0
- WC – 2015 was the mirage in Iowa’s desert of mediocrity. 4-6
- P – Michigan’s talent is frightening. Iowa has some factors that gives me and my fellow fans hope, like a better QB situation, better running game, and playing at home but despite “New Kirk” pushing for better athletes, Michigan is already there. L, 28-21, 9-1 (6-1)
At Illinois
- BC – ESPN sinks into the ocean. 11-0
- WC – Illinois is the surprising Western champ thanks to an incredible defense. 4-7
- P – I use the word escape here. Iowa escapes thanks to the defense getting a timely takeaway. Illinois is going to go bowling this year and will be a tough out for everyone. W, 30-27, 10-1 (7-1)
Nebraska
- BC – Not only does Iowa go undefeated but Purdue somehow wins the East allowing Iowa to have a cakewalk in Indy! 12-0
- WC – Greg Davis is who we thought he is (RIP Denny Green) and gets fired after the year. 4-8
- P – Iowa has the advantage on both lines and NU’s defense looks to be another bad one (97th in the nation last year). Iowa wins a grinder in a horrible snowstorm. W, 17-10, 11-1 (8-1)
Final Notes
Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are clearly the teams to beat in the West but they aren’t flawless. NU has no defense. UW has a hole at quarterback and a nightmare schedule. Iowa therefore is the safest bet. They have the tough trip to Penn State and host Michigan, but for the most part it is a pretty favorable slate. They don’t have as good an offense as the Huskers but they have a much, much better defense. 12-0 was something special but backing up the surprise season with another trip to Indianapolis would prove that last year wasn’t a one-hit wonder and that validation is what Iowa fans want the most.
Big Ten and Counting 